UFC

#81
Strange in-fight price after the first round?

Akhmedov dominated the first round yet Breese was a bigger fave in live wagering than before the opening bell.
I was banking on Akhmedov blowing his load and getting finished late. Maybe they were thinking the same. Breese takedown defense didn't show up today
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#87
SMARTZ, what's the average time between fights for most UFC fighters?

I know there's a wide variance but I was wondering if there's a set routine for healthy, active fighters?
 
#88
SMARTZ, what's the average time between fights for most UFC fighters?

I know there's a wide variance but I was wondering if there's a set routine for healthy, active fighters?
Depends mostly on how their last fight went. Did they take damage, did they come in with injuries, can they find an opponent etc. Id say on average most people fight 2x a year. High activity is 3-4. I think per their contract they are guaranteed 3 fight offers a year. Its up to the fighter if they wish to accept
 
#95
Shitty day. Got greedy with Chiesa taking the prop. He had a ton of opportunities but couldn't get the finish. Cruised to an easy decision win which I really didn't see coming. Props to Magny for staying alive.

[3-4] -4.72

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: ??? Prop bet. better lines were available

PENDING:

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103
2*Amir Albazi +120
1*Amir Albazi +105
2*Ottman Azaitar -147
2*Julianna Pena +110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116
1*Amanda Ribas -253
1*Arman Tsarukyan -172
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110
1*Hakeem Dawodu +169

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130

3/6/21
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145
 
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#97
Chiesa calls out Magatard Colby Covington on the microphone, saying "the election is over!"
Haha. Man I hate that matchup for Chiesa. I highly doubt he can get Colby the ground. Colbys standup and cardio are alot better than Chiesa imo. Must know something everyone else doesn't.
 
Post fight Chiesa says, "Colby is the worst matchup for me, but I need to challenge myself"..... wtf?
Colby is one of the best. But he's a bigtime dick! One reason I bet Warlley Alves today is because he had a win over Colby. Chiesa stock has been going up. He lost those 2 fights in '17 & '18 to Lee & Pettis but has rebounded nicely with kinda of dominating wins? Much improved!
 
Colby is one of the best. But he's a bigtime dick! One reason I bet Warlley Alves today is because he had a win over Colby. Chiesa stock has been going up. He lost those 2 fights in '17 & '18 to Lee & Pettis but has rebounded nicely with kinda of dominating wins? Much improved!
Dang nice call. I was pretty high on Lazzez but the price was too high for me
 
Have you ever seen anyone have a more perfect 5 round fight than Holloway’s? I couldn’t think of another
You might enjoy this.

Holloway's 17 victories in UFC featherweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Holloway landed 445 significant strikes, the single-fight UFC record. The previous high was 290 (He owned that record).
His 744 significant strike attempts are also a single-fight record.
Holloway landed 447 total strikes, the single-fight UFC record. The previous high was 361.
His 746 total strike attempts are also a single-fight record.
Holloway landed 141 significant strikes in Round 4, the single-round UFC record.
Holloway has landed 100 or more significant strikes in 12 separate UFC fights, the most in company history. No other fighter has more than eight such performances.
Holloway has landed 2,618 significant strikes in UFC competition, the most in company history.
Holloway has landed 2,805 total strikes in UFC competition are most in company history.
Holloway is the only fighter in UFC history to complete 24 octagon appearances without suffering a knockdown.
Holloway’s eight fight-night bonuses for UFC featherweight bouts are tied with Cub Swanson and Chan Sung Jung for most in divisional history.
Kattar became the third fighter in UFC history to earn a 42-point scorecard in a five-round fight. Gil Castillo and David Loiseau also achieved the dubious distinction.
Kattar and Holloway combined or 578 significant strikes landed, a single-fight record in UFC history.
Kattar and Holloway combined for 581 total strikes landed, a single-fight record in UFC history.
 
[3-4] -4.72

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: ??? Prop bet. better lines were available

PENDING:

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103
2*Amir Albazi +120
1*Amir Albazi +105
2*Ottman Azaitar -147
2*Julianna Pena +110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116
1*Amanda Ribas -253
1*Arman Tsarukyan -172
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300


2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130

3/6/21
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145
 
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You might enjoy this.

Holloway's 17 victories in UFC featherweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Holloway landed 445 significant strikes, the single-fight UFC record. The previous high was 290 (He owned that record).
His 744 significant strike attempts are also a single-fight record.
Holloway landed 447 total strikes, the single-fight UFC record. The previous high was 361.
His 746 total strike attempts are also a single-fight record.
Holloway landed 141 significant strikes in Round 4, the single-round UFC record.
Holloway has landed 100 or more significant strikes in 12 separate UFC fights, the most in company history. No other fighter has more than eight such performances.
Holloway has landed 2,618 significant strikes in UFC competition, the most in company history.
Holloway has landed 2,805 total strikes in UFC competition are most in company history.
Holloway is the only fighter in UFC history to complete 24 octagon appearances without suffering a knockdown.
Holloway’s eight fight-night bonuses for UFC featherweight bouts are tied with Cub Swanson and Chan Sung Jung for most in divisional history.
Kattar became the third fighter in UFC history to earn a 42-point scorecard in a five-round fight. Gil Castillo and David Loiseau also achieved the dubious distinction.
Kattar and Holloway combined or 578 significant strikes landed, a single-fight record in UFC history.
Kattar and Holloway combined for 581 total strikes landed, a single-fight record in UFC history.
Incredible performance and those numbers are just staggering

Kattar may never be the same after taking that kind of damage
 
Incredible performance and those numbers are just staggering

Kattar may never be the same after taking that kind of damage
Yah I feel the exact same. Not only was his ego shot when Max made him eat his pre-fight words but that amount of damage has to take a toll. In addition, his nose has been broken in 3 consecutive fights. I really don't know where Kattar goes from here. His only skill is boxing and he got outclassed in that discipline about as bad as humanly possible.
 
[3-4] -4.72

1/23/21 UFC 257 McGregor vs Poirier
On the right side of the number on almost every fight. Hope these result in W's.

3*Makhmud Muradov +103
2*Amir Albazi +120
1*Amir Albazi +105
2*Ottman Azaitar -147
2*Julianna Pena +110
1*Amanda Ribas -253
1*Arman Tsarukyan -172
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116


Makhmud Muradov +103 (75" Reach) vs Andrew Sanchez (74" reach)
Current line: Muradov -140

This is a buy low situation for me. Somehow Muradov has gone 2-0 in the UFC in extremely impressive fashion and no one has taken notice. Even after TKO'ing two former UFC fighters leading up to his debut in the UFC. A great athlete with outstanding fluidity, speed, and creativity in his striking. Fights at distance and makes it look pretty as evidenced by his 2:1 strikes given to absorbed ratio. Thus far has defended takedowns very well and landed a few of his own. If there's any chink in the armor he gassed out in the last 2.5 minutes of his debut but seemed to shore that issue up in his most recent bout by looking extremely nimble in the 3rd. His opponent Andrew Sanchez is solid. I like Sanchez as a fighter. Very good durability, solid striking, solid grappling, and solid cardio. He just isn't great anywhere and his defense definitely wanes as the fight goes on (-0.35 strikes landed-absorbed). Sanchez prefers to fight at distance and seldomly uses his collegiate wrestling skills. I think this bodes well for Muradov who should outclass Sanchez at his own game. Keeping distance and sniping in for strikes and fighting off the occasional takedown attempt. If he performs well, I doubt we see him as a dog again until he starts fighting the elite. Favorite fight on the card. Muradov by unanimous decision.

Amir Albazi +120 (68" reach) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (66" reach)
Current line: Albazi -110

The fighting styles of these two fighters are very similar. Zhumagulov is a pest. The former FNG champ, lacks athleticism but is fundamentally sound and durable (no finishes in the last 6 years). Never seems to be out of a fight and just tends to hang around. He was able to defeat former UFC fighter Ali Bagautinov and current UFC fighter Tyson Nam by narrowly outpointing the two. He should be 1-0 in the UFC. I had bet on his opponent Raulian Paiva in Zhalgas' debut and should not have won my wager. Zhalgas easily outpointed him in rounds 2 and 3 despite probably taking more damage overall. His striking is average, but his constant movement allows him to avoid taking serious damage in the octagon and maintain distance. When feeling pressured on the feet, he lacks the power to keep opponents at bay and often relies on his sound wrestling to take things to the mat. Albazi similarly likes to fight at distance, mixing in crisp punches as he closes distance as well as takedowns. Albazi is 13-1 overall (1-0 UFC), submitting his only foe in the UFC in the first round. His only loss coming to a good former UFC fighter Jose Torres by narrow decision. The difference between the two I feel is Albazi is just a little better everywhere. Cardio should be a wash between these two. Albazi has more power, more reach, more size, and a far more decorated grappler. Taking home several BJJ championships in Europe, USA, and the middle east. For Zhalgas, I don't think the luxury of grappling when in danger on the feet will be there without putting himself in serious danger on the mat. My expectation is Zhalgas gets outclassed but his durability allows the fight to go the distance. Albazi by unanimous decision.

Ottman Azaitar -147 (71" Reach) vs Matt Frevola (71" reach)
Current line: Azaitar -160

Another striker vs grappler bout. The former Brave champ, Ottman Azaitar, has burst onto the scene with two quick KO's in his first two UFC fights. Possessing true 1 punch KO power, he is 13-0 overall, with 10 1st round finishes. Azaitar has a great chin and average takedown defense/defense in general. He does tend to find a way back to the feet or reverse position when taken down. Frevola on the other hand relies purely on his wrestling. He is a very strong gritty fighter and can often muscle his opponents to the mat. However, his striking is amateur and bjj is average. Very much a control fighter and doesn't threaten with fight finishing ability. His ground control is far from elite, often getting caught in sub attempts or allowing the opponent to escape/reverse position. He is a frustrating fighter to watch because most bouts he wins you are left feeling "did he really win that fight?". Often inflicting very little damage but winning on points. With that being said, you got to respect that he has a firm understanding of his strengths and weaknesses and does what he can to tip the scorecards in his favor. I just don't think this skill set will take you far in the UFC. When you lack the ability to finish and you fight fight a guy like Azaitar you have to be perfect for 15 minutes because one shot can mean naptime. Under might be a decent play if you side with Azaitar.

Both fighters cardio is questionable. Both slow considerably after about 1.5 rounds. Frevola seems to look more physically compromised as the fight goes on but still has the capability to muscle takedowns when necessary. Normally this would be a 1 unit play for me as I could see Frevola laying and praying for 3 rounds on his way to another decision victory given Azaitars questionable cardio and average takedown defense. But I'm going 2u and that has to do with my bias thinking Frevola's 8-1 record is fraudulent. I think Azaitar catches him coming in and makes him pay mightily. Azaitar KO 1st round.

Julianna Pena +110 (69" reach) vs Sara McMann (66" reach)
Current line: Pena +110

Sara McMann still doing the damn thing at 41 years old. A former Olympic silver medalist in wrestling, she likes her fights on the ground. Preferably with her on top. Historically entering majority of her fights with a significant power advantage and slamming her opponents to the mat. The power is still there but the speed and agility to my eyes have started to fade. Striking is robotic and ground control is average. While being able to land some vicious ground and pound she allows her foes to escape and reverse position regularly. Often looking totally lost when reversed and having to defend off her back. McMann is 4-4 in her last 8, losing 3/4 via submission. Further emphasizing her deficiencies on the ground. So when pitted against jiu jitsu ace Julianna Pena (a physically imposing woman herself), on paper backing Julianna makes sense. I don't think McMann will carry her normal power advantage against Pena's strong frame either. Pena is 5-2 in the UFC losing only to Germaine DeRandamie and Valentina Shevchenko, the two best fighters not named Amanda Nunes. And in both fights she was starting to take control before surprisingly getting caught in submissions by these two decorated strikers. I think Pena has significant advantages on the ground and the feet and wins this fight via submission

Amanda Ribas -253 (66" reach) vs Marina Rodriguez (65" reach)
Current line: Ribas -330

Marina Rodriguez is an outstanding striker. But she can't defend a takedown to save her life. Marina is 3-1-2 in the UFC. In her 1 loss and 2 draws, she got taken down 10 times. Ribas will do whatever she wants. Most likely repeatedly getting Rodriguez to the mat to showcase her high level jiu jitsu and on her way to a 5-0 record. Her striking, pace, grappling, and cardio are high level. I am not sure how her power will stack up with the divisions elite but with lesser fighters like Marina, she should dominate. Ribas by 2nd round submission.

Arman Tsarukyan -172 (72" Reach) vs Nasrat Haqparast (72" reach)
Current line: Tsarukyan -285

Tsarukyan is a 24 year old man child. Took Islam Mackhachev into deep water on short notice and lost a close decision at age 22. Has since defeated Aubin Mercier and Davi Ramos. Two quality opponents in impressive fashion. Grappling is elite but he couples that with a variety of heavy well timed strikes. Cardio and chin are also top notch. Aside from experience there aren't a whole lot of negative things to say about his game. He has the ability to dictate where he wants the fight to take place and can excel on the feet or on the mat. And at his age, he is only getting better. Nasrat is a scary striker and young himself at 25. Lightning quick strikes, good power and good durability. I just think stylistically this is just a poor matchup for him. Nasrat probably has a slight edge on the feet but I don't think he will get to choose where he wants the fight to be. If Tsarukyan does not feel comfortable standing he can take it to the ground and unleash his high level grappling or if he is getting the better of Haqparast striking he can keep it on the feet. Tsarukyan should be able to dictate the fight and I am predicting a submission in the 3rd.
 
Under 2.5 Rounds -110 Dan Hooker/Michael Chandler
Current line: 2.5 Rounds -110

Hooker is a high end 2.5 round fighter. Really advanced striking, good defensive grappling, great chin and solid foot movement. As the fight goes on, his cardio tends to wither rapidly, output decreases and his defense goes to shit. His chin is ridiculous at times but its allowed him to take a beating in his last few fights (Absorbed 100+ strikes in 3 of his last 5 fights, looked like death at the end of all 3 too). How many more big shots can he take? Not sure. The play is mostly based on the style of fighting Michael Chandler brings to the table. Like Hooker, he is a real high output offensive fighter early on and he is most likely the most powerful fighter Hooker has ever faced. Relies on his speed to close distance and either take you down (elite d1 wrestler) with vicious ground and pound or finish you on the feet with big punches. Long story short he tries to make quick work of people. Since 2015 only 3/11 of his fights have gone the distance with most ending in the first round. And I expect the approach to be the same. Chandler is trying hard to enter the title mix as a UFC newcomer and knows he has to make a splash to do so. Publicly saying he only has a few years left in his prime to prove himself in the UFC. With that being said, I think his aggressive forward style is going to give ample opportunity for Hooker to counter at his chin. Hooker also never backs down from a fire fight which should give Chandler chances to take it to the mat or land a big shot. With my questions on Hookers durability and me expecting real high intensity 2 rounds, I think someone ends up waking up on the mat.

Under 2.5 Rounds -116 Conor McGregor/Dustin Poirier
Current line: 2.5 Rounds -190

I expect a similar high intensity fight for McGregor/Poirier. Except from a skill and power perspective, I think Conor is far superior. People forget how elite and powerful of a striker Conor is after his fights with Diaz and Khabib. Diaz is a zombie (survived 3 knockdowns in their last fight) that has a unique ability to just eat shots in hopes of you wearing down and beating you late. Khabib is just Khabib and Conor is the only one imo who has made it a real fight with him. However, it is hard to back Conor in a 5 round fight because of his cardio issues. Conor is an uber high energy starter. Uses loads of energy to maintain distance defensively and land big combos offensively. But this fighting style saps energy quick. If Poirier can weather the storm, I think he has a clear cardio/output advantage in rounds 3-5. Rewatching their fight in 2014, it's clear whos strikes carry more weight. I understand it was 6 years ago, but I have a hard time believing the power differential has changed. The play is based on my expectation that Conor finishes the fight in the first 2 rounds if he wins and laying -116 on the total is far more appealing than laying -240 on Conor. (Conor now up to -340 since writing this)
 
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I wouldn't touch it now at -330+ . You should watch Esparza Vs Marina if you get a chance. Her takedown defense is akin to Drew Bledsoe evading a sack.
That's Esparza's best skill, takedowns! Remember what she did to a very young, raw and green Rose Namagumes. At that time a 18 or 19 year old Rose could not defend the takedown against the Cookie Monster. Cost Rose the match. Carla actually dominated her because of lack of takedown defense. If those 2 fought again Rose would be a big favorite and would win.

P.S. I like your Amir pick. Also like J. Pena a lot. Let's get those 2.
 
That's Esparza's best skill, takedowns! Remember what she did to a very young, raw and green Rose Namagumes. At that time a 18 or 19 year old Rose could not defend the takedown against the Cookie Monster. Cost Rose the match. Carla actually dominated her because of lack of takedown defense. If those 2 fought again Rose would be a big favorite and would win.

P.S. I like your Amir pick. Also like J. Pena a lot. Let's get those 2.
I agree on Esparza, but my feeling has very little to do with the fact she got taken down. It's more how effortlessly she got taken down. Please watch. I have a real hard time believing you'd disagree by the time the fight is over. Lastly, Ribas grappling is outstanding. I would not grade Ribas grappling as worse than Esparza. I think she is better. Her striking is leaps and bounds better than Esparza. So she should be able to mask her takedowns much better than Carla. Even with Carlas striking deficiencies, the viewers, announcers, and Marina knew the takedown was coming every round. Yet Marina was totally helpless. It was like watching Mariano Rivera throw a cutter.
 
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I agree on Esparza, but my feeling has very little to do with the fact she got taken down. It's more how effortlessly she got taken down. Please watch. I have a real hard time believing you'd disagree by the time the fight is over. Lastly, Ribas grappling is outstanding. I would not grade Ribas grappling as worse than Esparza. I think she is better. Her striking is leaps and bounds better than Esparza. So she should be able to mask her takedowns much better than Carla. Even with Carlas striking deficiencies, the viewers, announcers, and Marina knew the takedown was coming every round. Yet Marina was totally helpless. It was like watching Mariano Rivera throw a cutter.
Or how Zenyatta would pass her rivals in the stretch. Effortlessly!
 
Or how Zenyatta would pass her rivals in the stretch. Effortlessly!
Haha. I am starting to remember more about the fight now that I am thinking about it. The only reason Marina landed any damage is because Esparza chased ankle locks at the end of both round 1 and 2. Marina hammer fisted the shit out of Carla when she couldn't secure the submission. Her coach Colin Oyama was berating her for being so stupid and not holding position in between rounds.
 
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 (75" Reach) vs Rodolfo Vieira (73" reach)
Current line: Hernandez +300

I originally bet this fight at +400 but Hernandez contracted COVID and the original bout was cancelled. I still like the number.
Rodolfo Vieira is about as legit as it gets for BJJ and a physical specimen. Being world class on the mat, its no secret he wants the fight on the ground. Like many competitive BJJ to MMA transplants his striking is lacking and relies heavily on his ability to drag his opponents to their backs. With how much muscle mass he carries and the explosive movements he uses to shoot for takedowns, Rodolfo's cardio saps quickly. Fortunately for his sake, he has finished 5 of his 7 wins in the 1st round. By contrast, if there was one attribute Anthony Hernandez has displayed thats shines above the rest it's his high pace and cardio. I think he can definitely use this to his advantage but he has to make it out of the first round. I'm betting Hernandez's 85% takedown defense and black belt in jiu jitsu get him to the 2nd. This is not to suggest that he will be able to match up with Vieira if the fight hits the mat, but I think his credentials in BJJ will allow him to defend/buy time in order to exhaust Vieira. Hernandez is no slouch on the ground, with 5 of his 7 victories coming via the submission. Anthony has solid wrestling, a very good chin, heavy hands and solid offensive boxing. His striking defense is lacking but against a striker of Vieira's caliber the lack of defense doesn't concern me as much. He does seem to have an Achilles heel. Both losses in the UFC were due to well placed kicks to the liver. Kevin Holland dropped him in the first with a knee to the liver and quickly finished him via strikes. Markus Perez dropped him with a front kick to the liver in the 2nd and finished him with a submission. Maybe I should be more concerned, but Vieira has not displayed the kicking prowess to take advantage here. I think Hernandez has enough of what it takes to take Vieira into deep water, then use his pace/pressure and mismatch on the feet to make things interesting. Anthony Hernandez by 3rd round TKO.
 
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