UFC

[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
3*Drakkar Klose -135
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260
1*Thiago Moises +165
1*Maxim Grishin +150

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145
2*Gustavo Lopez +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
Last edited:
[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
3*Drakkar Klose -135
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260
1*Thiago Moises +165
1*Maxim Grishin +150

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185
1*Leon Edwards -260

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145
2*Gustavo Lopez +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125
 
Rafael Alves just weighed in 12.5 pounds overweight lol. He was crying on the scale, probably knows he has a high chance of getting cut if he loses now
 
On the right side of the number on all wagers and every fighter came in on weight. Lets get some W's.
Really on the fence with Kunitskaya may add her as a play

[20-13] +9.17
3* [4-2] +5.12

3*Drakkar Klose -135
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

Drakkar Klose -135 (70" Reach) vs Luis Pena (76" reach)
Current line: Klose -175

What I had originally wrote in Klose's original matchup vs Jai Herbert:
...And fortunately for him, Klose is not a ground game expert. Klose does utilize a decent amount of takedowns but its usually later in the fight as he tries to wear his opponent out and secure rounds. His top control is very average and he is not much of a submission threat (0 subs attempted through 7 UFC fights, no sub finishes in career). Drakkar likes to make his fights dirty. While built with a stout powerful frame, Drakkar is shorter for the division and often has to get into the range of his opponent. He does his damage with his hands but his most critical weapon is a smashing calf kick. He whips that kick with very little windup and times it well. In countless fights he has hurt his opponents calves badly, forcing them to switch stances and crippling their movement. Once the defense is compromised he moves in with furious tight combos and really ups the pace. His recipe for success is simple but very few have found a way to stop it. I believe getting in range to land the kick will be a problem for him this fight. Not only does he have to cover a large amount of distance due to the length discrepancy, he has to avoid getting sniped by Jai Herberts right fist. One shot on the button could easily end the night. Klose also likes to work in the clinch with dirty boxing and mixing in takedowns. I am curious to see who wins this battle if the clinch becomes a prominent part of the fight. Both excel in this position.

Luis Pena was probably the biggest prospect coming off TUF 2018. The guy oozes with potential. I fell in love with his range, fluidity, well balanced game, and outstanding nickname "Violent Bob Ross". He was so impressive Daniel Cormier took him under his wing and invited him to train at AKA. Despite the tools he possesses, Pena has struggled to put it all together. He has had bouts where he has been badly outgrappled or badly outstruck on the feet. And with his struggles has recently changed camps over to ATT in Florida. Maybe the camp switch can get him to achieve his potential. But I won't believe it til I see it (In his first bout under ATT he was submitted by Khama Worthy in the 3rd round). Pena can be effective when he is the man leading the dance on the feet. But he is consistently tentative (especially when facing better competition) and his lack of raw power rarely gains the respect of his opponents. He struggles to counter strike when opponents blitz him with strikes and often just retreats and gets bullied back to the fence. Mitigating his reach and allowing his opponents into striking range. Watching many of his fights it is clear Pena is far more confident on the ground. He will entertain the striking exchanges but the moment the tide starts to turn his opponents way he shoots for takedowns. His rangy frame allows him to put his opponents in compromising positions but he is far from elite on the mat. As the competition has increased the submission victories have vanished as well as his inability to maintain top control. The only fight as of late where he was able to maintain top position was against Steve Garcia who took the fight on a few days notice and fought up a weight class. Pena was getting pieced up on the feet but was able to get the fight to the mat and lay and pray for 3 rounds. He held control for 14/15 minutes despite being outlanded 98-58. While Pena does mix in front kicks he uses a boxing heavy stance and most of his offense comes with his fists. I hate to beat a dead horse here but this makes him susceptible to calf kicks and he has not shown much improvement defending this strike. Until fighters learn to adjust to this new wave of calf kicking, I will continue to put alot of weight into the lack of defense to the strike. Leg kick stats in Pena's UFC bouts: Worthy landed 17/18, Garcia 4/4 (I assume lack of game plan on 5 days notice), Frevola 11/11, Wiman 19/20, Peterson 10/10, Trizano 16/16. Mind you none of these men have even close to the power or calf kicking prowess Drakkar Klose does.

Klose's constant forward pressure will most likely have Pena on his back foot all night. And if he stays heavy on his lead leg, Klose is going to batter that calf. I will be interested to see if he can take Klose down. But I have a hard time seeing it happen. While I mentioned Klose is no "ground gam eexpert", his lack of ground offense does not mean he does not defend the ground game well. His collegiate wrestling background allows him to defend takedowns (68%) and he has shown good ability to defend when put into compromising positions. Finding ways to reverse position or scramble back to his feet. Stylistically I think this is a great matchup for Klose and him holding the power advantage is just icing on the cake. I see Klose controlling all 15 minutes and winning by unanimous decision.


Jamall Emmers -155 (74" reach) vs Chas Skelly (72.5" reach)
Current line: Emmers -250

Jamall Emmers is (18-5) overall and a very exciting prospect. His (1-2) UFC record does not reflect how good of a fighter he is. Prior to entering the UFC he beat bigtime UFC prospects Alexander Hernandez and Cory Sandhagen. He loss his UFC debut on the Contender Series as a -300 favorite. After taking the first round with a knockdown, he tried to evade a headkick in the 2nd and even blocked it and but was still knocked out. Two years later he went on to face world class striker Giga Chikadze (5-1 UFC) and in my opinion won the fight handily. Outstruck Giga 54-38, takedowns were 2-0 in his favor, and had totally taken over the fight by the final bell. The judges didn't agree. Despite the loss, Jamall's ability to evade strikes and stand with Giga said alot about his standup game. He went on to destroy Vince Cachero which is one of the worst beatdowns without a finish in recent memory. Cachero took KO shot after KO shot and kept plodding forward. A former collegiate wrestler, Emmers possesses great athleticism, very light feet/distance control, solid striking, good defensive instincts and good cardio. He's a very well rounded MMA fighter and I think he can make some serious noise in the UFC.

Chas Skelly sports a (7-3) record in the UFC but really has no quality wins. Of his 7 UFC wins, only 1 fighter has a winning record in the promotion. That fighter is Kevin Souza. If you are wondering who Kevin Souza is, you aren't alone. He was cut from the UFC shortly after this loss. Souza actually had Skelly in serious trouble after catching him clean and knocking him down. Souza foolishly chased Skelly to the mat, got wrapped up and was unable to finish. He was later taken down and submitted via rear naked choke in the 2nd. The two other fighters he has fought with winning records have accounted for 2/3 losses (Darren Elkins, Mirsad Bektic; neither fighter is very good). Skelly is a poor athlete and his game is very takedown dependent. His striking is below average for the UFC and needs the fight to hit the mat in order to be effective.

In my opinion, this matchup features two fighters with very deceptive records. Emmer's superior athleticism, distance control, and collegiate wrestling pedigree is going to give Skelly problems making this a grappling affair. If the fight remains standing I find it hard to see Jamall not taking advantage of Skellys poor movement and limited striking ability. Emmers by unanimous decision.
 
John Castaneda +120 (70" Reach) vs Eddie Wineland (69" reach)
Current line: Castaneda -125

A former champ in the WEC in 2006, Eddie Wineland has seen better days. Over his last 14 bouts the 36 year old Wineland is (6-8). While he has loss to some of the divisions better fighters his wins have only come from bottom of the barrel competition. When I watch Wineland fight, it seems clear that the fast evolution of the sport has left him behind. He relies heavily on his boxing but lacks the power and technique to be a specialist. He defends takedowns well but has little to no offense grappling of his own. Can this style work? Sure. But you have be very fucking good and have finishing power to pull it off. A diverse skillset is mandatory in modern MMA unless you're a top of the food chain specialist.

John Castaneda is a pest and a former champ in the promotion Combates America. He is good everywhere but not great anywhere, but seems to get the most out of his ability. Utilizing his quickness and mixing in grappling with his striking very well. His biggest asset is his durability. Castaneda just hangs around. He takes shots well, has good cardio, and can maintain a high pace over 15 minutes. In a recent interview he stated that he has actually put more effort towards improving his cardio. Which is probably the best decision any fighter lacking raw talent can make. Castaneda loss his last bout on short notice to an outstanding prospect in Nathaniel Wood. Castaneda gave Wood trouble but was just outmatched. Nathaniel is better everywhere and just more talented. No matter how much work he could put in, Castaneda's ceiling will never touch that of Wood. With that being said, I think when pitted against an aging Eddie Wineland, raw talent is probably on Castaneda's side. I think if Castaneda had any name value we would see him no less than -145. While I expect the fight to be competitive early, I see Castaneda pulling away as the fight progresses. Using his speed, durability, and more diverse skillset. Castaneda by unanimous decision


Julian Erosa +120 (74.5" Reach) vs Nate Landwehr (72" reach)
Current line: Erosa +100

I often talk about and put alot of weight in pace and strikes landed vs absorbed. While both these fighters can maintain a high pace, these both also fight like fucking morons. Both put defense on the backburner and absorb boatloads of damage. Erosa has tremendous reach for the division but does not utilize it nearly as effectively as he could. Rarely uses front kicks or jabs and often hunts for flurries of hooks. His inability to maintain range allows him to get hit often but fortunately he takes the damage well. Landwehr just plays a game of chicken. Talks trash, moves forward, and see's who can land harder. Landwehr does not possess anything close to the power necessary to play this dangerous game. Landwehr is 1-1 in the UFC. He won a close decision to Darren Elkins (also fights like retard) and got KO'd in the first by Herbert Burns (Only KO in Herbert Burns career). Landwehr has good takedown defense but is fairly one dimensional and just tries to throw big shots. He almost relies on wearing his opponent down to finish them late.

So why do I side with Erosa here? For one, in a match that I predict will be a slugfest, I think Erosa holds more power in his strikes. I also don't think Landwehr will be able to break Erosa. Erosa can maintain a high pace, absorb damage, and still plod forward. And while I feel this fight will stay solely on the feet, Erosa has a ground game he can utilize if the fight hits the mat. Lastly, Erosa has faced far far far stiffer competition. While Landwehr has fought two fringe top 30 guys in the UFC, Erosa has faced Sean Woodson, Julio Arce, Grant Dawson, Devonte Smith, Jamall Emmers in succession. The schedule the UFC has put together for him has been brutal. Going 2-3 through that group is impressive to me. I think the current line seems correct as I feel Erosa should be in the -125/130 range. While the line value is gone now, I gladly took the plus money with the more battle tested Erosa. Erosa by TKO. May add a unit on the under once a total is posted.
 
Weird day with the two big plays getting cancelled. Swept the small ones. To play Kunitskaya or not....

[22-13] +11.57
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130


PENDING:

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260
1*Thiago Moises +165
1*Maxim Grishin +150

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
3*Misha Cirkunov -125
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185
1*Leon Edwards -260

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125
 
Top