UFC

Lost the biggies but ended up in the same spot I started with the two big dogs cashing. Wish Diego came in. Sandhagens knee was absurd.


[14-10] +2.94
3* [2-2] -0.91

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

PENDING:

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
2*Dominick Reyes -110

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Last edited:
Jamall Emmers -155 (74" reach) vs Chas Skelly (72.5" reach)
Current line: Emmers -200

Jamall Emmers is (18-5) overall and a very exciting prospect. His (1-2) UFC record does not reflect how good of a fighter he is. Prior to entering the UFC he beat bigtime UFC prospects Alexander Hernandez and Cory Sandhagen. He loss his UFC debut on the Contender Series as a -300 favorite. After taking the first round with a knockdown, he tried to evade a headkick in the 2nd and even blocked it and but was still knocked out. Two years later he went on to face world class striker Giga Chikadze (5-1 UFC) and in my opinion won the fight handily. Outstruck Giga 54-38, takedowns were 2-0 in his favor, and had totally taken over the fight by the final bell. The judges didn't agree. Despite the loss, Jamall's ability to evade strikes and stand with Giga said alot about his standup game. He went on to destroy Vince Cachero which is one of the worst beatdowns without a finish in recent memory. Cachero took KO shot after KO shot and kept plodding forward. A former collegiate wrestler, Emmers possesses great athleticism, very light feet/distance control, solid striking, good defensive instincts and good cardio. He's a very well rounded MMA fighter and I think he can make some serious noise in the UFC.

Chas Skelly sports a (7-3) record in the UFC but really has no quality wins. Of his 7 UFC wins, only 1 fighter has a winning record in the promotion. That fighter is Kevin Souza. If you are wondering who Kevin Souza is, you aren't alone. He was cut from the UFC shortly after this loss. Souza actually had Skelly in serious trouble after catching him clean and knocking him down. Souza foolishly chased Skelly to the mat, got wrapped up and was unable to finish. He was later taken down and submitted via rear naked choke in the 2nd. The two other fighters he has fought with winning records have accounted for 2/3 losses (Darren Elkins, Mirsad Bektic; neither fighter is very good). Skelly is a poor athlete and his game is very takedown dependent. His striking is below average for the UFC and needs the fight to hit the mat in order to be effective.

In my opinion, this matchup features two fighters with very deceptive records. Emmer's superior athleticism, distance control, and collegiate wrestling pedigree is going to give Skelly problems making this a grappling affair. If the fight remains standing I find it hard to see Jamall not taking advantage of Skellys poor movement and limited striking ability. Emmers by unanimous decision.
 
[14-10] +2.94
3* [2-2] -0.91

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

PENDING:

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
[14-10] +2.94
3* [2-2] -0.91

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

PENDING:

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
[14-10] +2.94
3* [2-2] -0.91

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

PENDING:

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
 
Mike Trizano cancelled. Added to dovletzdhan

[14-10] +2.94
3* [2-2] -0.91

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

PENDING:

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100

1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
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Smartz-I think Kelleher +205 is decent value against Simon

Any opinions on that fight?
Have a hard time seeing him defending off Simon's takedowns. Ricky's taken a much different approach as of late and really leaning on his wrestling background and staying safe. Kelleher takes a little too much damage on the feet but absorbs the damage well. Could see Simon's hand speed being a factor on the feet.
I lean Simon here but price is a little too high for my liking. If your book allows you to parlay side and total. Kelleher and under seems like a decent correlated parlay. I can only see Kelleher winning by finish. Or betting Kelleher inside the distance.
 
Have a hard time seeing him defending off Simon's takedowns. Ricky's taken a much different approach as of late and really leaning on his wrestling background and staying safe. Kelleher takes a little too much damage on the feet but absorbs the damage well. Could see Simon's hand speed being a factor on the feet.
I lean Simon here but price is a little too high for my liking. If your book allows you to parlay side and total. Kelleher and under seems like a decent correlated parlay. I can only see Kelleher winning by finish. Or betting Kelleher inside the distance.
Thanks once again for your input-much appreciated
 
[14-10] +2.94

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

Gabe Green +103 (73" Reach) vs Phil Rowe (80.5" reach)
Current line: Green -135

The deeper I dive into this matchup, the more compelling of a case I have for Gabriel Green. Initially played 1* at +103 I have since added 2 more units at -110.

I first was introduced to Phil Rowe watching a UFC embedded on his training partner David Branch. Branch being a solid UFC vet, my assumption was Rowe must be a solid fighter as well. So naturally when he landed a fight on the contender series I tuned in. I was left fairly unimpressed. Rowe's biggest attribute is his frame. His 80.5" reach at 170 is a weapon. But the hand speed isn't there and he winds up on his strikes. Defensively he will often evade oncoming pressure with his chin high in the air ala Luke Rockhold. He was nearly KO'd in the first round of his Contender series debut but kudos to him as he rallied back and finished Shabahzyan in the 3rd (Green previously finished Shabahzyan in the 1st). Prior to this fight Rowe was a 6-2, but it is an awfully soft 6-2. The records of all his opponents were (4-7), (1-2), (0-5), (0-4), (2-2), (0-2), (1-3), (3-7). And he loss two of those bouts.

Gabe Green loss by decision in his UFC debut against a very talented Daniel Rodriguez on 7 days notice. Prior to that he was on a 6 fight win streak. His opponents records are as follows (7-1), (5-3), (9-4), (17-13), (7-2), (7-6). The quality of competition are drastically different for two guys entering their second career UFC fight. Gabe is 9-3 with two of his losses against good current UFC fighters, Daniel Rodriguez (3-1 UFC) and Jalin Turner (4-2 UFC). Gabe Green is a bit undersized for the division but he closes distance quickly with heavy power on his strikes. His cardio, pace, and chin are top notch. He is also very dangerous on the mat as well. With solid takedowns and 6 submission wins to his name. Also of note Green has finished all of his opponents in each of his 9 wins. While Rowe will be the much larger man, I think the skill differential between to two will be too great for him to overcome. Gabe is going to close distance and deliver relentless pressure. 1st round KO.

Chris Gutierrez -150 (67" Reach) vs Andre Ewell (76" reach)
Current line: Gutierrez -140

Ewell is an outstanding athlete with outstanding length for the division. Relies almost purely on his boxing. Lightning quick hands with decent pop on his punches despite no finishes in his UFC career. Initially he struggled mightily defending takedowns but has improved there immensely in the last 2 years. However, he still is a fish out of water on his back if taken down. My main problem with Ewell is he takes too much damage and his cardio is very average. Ewell is by far most dangerous in the first 7 or so minutes and slows after that. He also has shown no defense for leg kicks aside from left hand counters. In fact in his last 3 bouts his leg kick defense stats are as follows, 21/27, 20/24, 18/18. He is averaging nearly 20 leg kick strikes absorbed per contest at an 86% clip. Ewell really doesn't have the option to switch from southpaw to conventional if his leg is battered either. His defense suffers in the alternate stance and will tend to give up on it quick after absorbing a few shots. Marlon Vera exposed the leg kick flaw and his last 2 opponents have taken advantage. One of those opponents was Chris Gutierrez's training partner and fellow Factory X fighter, Jonathan Martinez, who loss by a shocking split decision. The media scored it 13-0 in Martinez's favor, but the judges went the other way. Martinez engaged in the boxing a little too much in the beginning when Ewell is most dangerous but slowly figured him out and broke him down. A heavy dose of leg kicks limited the explosiveness of Ewell and he hurt Ewell multiple times with front kicks to the body. Sapping the movement and cardio he took over the fight in the last 7 minutes of the fight. While I view Martinez as a slightly better fighter than Gutierrez, their styles are extremely similar. Chris is actually the more technical and skilled of the two and but lacks the power Martinez brings to the table. Chris excels with his kicks, defends/maintains range beautifully, and has superb cardio. While Chris defends takedowns well (76% defense) he does struggle on the mat if he is able to be controlled there. Fortunately for him, Ewell has only attempted 2 takedowns in his 6 fight UFC career and his BJJ is abysmal. Last but not least, leg kicks are a enormous part of Chris' game. Averaging around 30 leg kicks per contest over his last 4 and connecting at a very high clip. Gutierrez actually finished Vince Morales via calf kicks in 2020 and dropped Geraldo De Freitas 4x via calf kick as well.

I think Gutierrez is going to frustrate Ewell with his in and out movement while sniping at his legs and body. Landing bigger shots late as Ewell begins to slow. The recipe for success was already put into play by his coaches and training partner. I expect Gutierrez to come out very prepared for this fight despite taking it on short notice. Gutierrez by unanimous decision. I may add another unit if this line continues to drop.

Kelvin Gastelum -219 (71.5" Reach) vs Ian Heinisch (72" reach)
Current line: Gastelum -220

Buy low on Kelvin here. In the midst of a 3 fight losing streak and having been finished for the second time in his career via heel hook by Jack Hermansson, Gastelum finds himself as a 2:1 favorite against a very average Ian Heinisch. Gastelum is very undersized for the division and probably could be a world champ at 155 if he could find a way to lay off the beans and rice. No one has really ever questioned his talent just his diet. As the competition has increased for him at 185, his lack of size has become more pronounced. Struggling to close distance against elite strikers Darren Till and Israel Adesanya and getting rag-dolled by Chris Weidman (his grappling has become a liability just due to the inherent size disadvantage.) This could be a coincidence but all 4 of his losses at 185 happen to be the fighters he faced with the longest reach. Israel Adesanya 80.5", Chris Weidman 78", Jack Hermansson 77.5", Darren Till 75". All of his wins are against opponents with reach of 74" or less. To be fair 3/4 losses have come against top 5 opponents, so he can hang with the big boys. I just have serious doubts if he will ever rise to the top at 185. One things for sure, Kelvin's KO power, chin, and hand speed have translated to the step up in weight. Skill for skill I don't think theres anywhere Heinisch is superior to Kelvin. A monstrous step down in competition for Gastelum from the divisions elite to a fringe top 15 guy. And with a 1/2 inch reach advantage and lacking high level grappling, I find it hard to see how Heinisch will be able to exploit his bigger frame against Kelvin. Also Heinisch's cardio is average and noticeably slows in the 3rd whereas Kelvin never seems to slow. I hate laying wood like this but I think were getting Kelvin on the cheap with his 3 fight skid. He will outclass Heinisch and finish him via TKO.
 
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Maycee Barber +159 (65" Reach) vs Alex Grasso (66" reach)
Current line: Barber +115

Maycee Barber entered her last fight with all the hype in the world. How did she go from a -850 favorite to a +159 pooch? A loss to Roxanne Modaferri. Where Maycee got taken down to that mat in the 1st slowing her normal barrage of early strikes. Another great way to slow her down is to have her tear her ACL. Which she did somewhere late in the 1st round. Visibily injured, Modaferri was able to get Maycee to the ground in the 2nd and 3rd by having Maycee's knee give out beneath her and jumping on the opportunity. It was a tough fight to watch and it definitely put the brakes on the publics fascination with her as a fighter. I am still shocked Maycee was able to gut out the final two rounds and stay alive. Can't questions her toughness.

Her opponent Alexa Grasso lacks the grappling credentials of Modaferri and prefers to strike. While technically sound she lacks the explosivity in her strikes that Maycee has. To be honest very few women can match Maycees power period. My concern with this fight is Maycee is only 11 months removed from ACL surgery. Has she regained her strength and speed? How much could she possibly have trained in 9 months of recovery and being 2-3 months removed? Is the cardio there? If she is fully recovered and displays no signs of rust she should have a decided advantage standing. And I'd imagine if this fight happened a year ago she would easily be lined -180+. But coming off serious injury and being a year removed from competition it's hard to back Maycee with a ton of confidence. At +159 I feel it's worth the gamble to back the better fighter despite the obvious concerns. Would probably only play at +140 or better. Maycee by TKO.


Gillian Robertson +153 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +130

Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time


Anthony Hernandez +300 (75" Reach) vs Rodolfo Vieira (73" reach)
Current line: Hernandez +300

I originally bet this fight at +400 but Hernandez contracted COVID and the original bout was cancelled. I still like the number.

Rodolfo Vieira is about as legit as it gets for BJJ and a physical specimen. Being world class on the mat, its no secret he wants the fight on the ground. Like many competitive BJJ to MMA transplants his striking is lacking and relies heavily on his ability to drag his opponents to their backs. With how much muscle mass he carries and the explosive movements he uses to shoot for takedowns, Rodolfo's cardio saps quickly. Fortunately for his sake, he has finished 5 of his 7 wins in the 1st round. By contrast, if there was one attribute Anthony Hernandez has displayed thats shines above the rest it's his high pace and cardio. I think he can definitely use this to his advantage but he has to make it out of the first round. I'm betting Hernandez's 85% takedown defense and black belt in jiu jitsu get him to the 2nd. This is not to suggest that he will be able to match up with Vieira if the fight hits the mat, but I think his credentials in BJJ will allow him to defend/buy time in order to exhaust Vieira. Hernandez is no slouch on the ground, with 5 of his 7 victories coming via the submission. Anthony has solid wrestling, a very good chin, heavy hands and solid offensive boxing. His striking defense is lacking but against a striker of Vieira's caliber the lack of defense doesn't concern me as much. He does seem to have an Achilles heel. Both losses in the UFC were due to well placed kicks to the liver. Kevin Holland dropped him in the first with a knee to the liver and quickly finished him via strikes. Markus Perez dropped him with a front kick to the liver in the 2nd and finished him with a submission. Maybe I should be more concerned, but Vieira has not displayed the kicking prowess to take advantage here. I think Hernandez has enough of what it takes to take Vieira into deep water, then use his pace/pressure and mismatch on the feet to make things interesting. Anthony Hernandez by 3rd round TKO.
 
[14-10] +2.94

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Chris Gutierrez -125
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300
 
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