Vice Presidential Odds

#41
she knows everybody has seen all the movies and will stop watching. Netflix only shows far left satantic trash. every single 1 of their DOCumentries has a radical left bent to it. Disgusting
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#43
So this vp choice has to be someone the dems want as president since biden is going for 1 term.....and might not make the full first term.
We finally find something we can agree on. I don't think Biden lasts the full term. He has already said he will be a one-term POTUS. If that is the case I can see him stepping aside during his term. Doing so greatly helps his Veep. If he does it right and I think he will. POTUS can not serve more than 2 full terms. But the length of someone's time in office is like a dollar bill. If you have 60% of a dollar bill you have legal tender. If you have 40% you do not.

What I think happens is: Biden serves slightly more than 2 years. He then steps aside. Doing so helps the Veep in soooooooo many ways. First: Come 2024 she is running as an incumbent and not one of a large group of candidates. She now gets the entire party behind her as opposed to what we saw from the Repubs in 2016 and the Dems in 2020. And by stepping aside after his term is half way over means the Veep can now run for POTUS in 2024 AND 2028 since she served less than half a term.

Of all of the Dems being considered I do think Kamala Harris would make the best POTUS. But of all of the Dems running she is the one who will hurt him the most on the ticket. Biden doesn't need Harris to win CA. I could be his Veep and he still wins CA.

This election will not be decided by 50 States. Right now we know for a fact who will win at least 43 States. If not more. This election will be decided by a handful (or slightly more) states. This election will be decided by who wins: AZ, FL, GA, NC, WI and maybe 1 more. Harris hurts him in those states more than helps him. If Biden wins Harris will either be the AG or replace RBG on the Supreme Court (assuming RBG lives that long - we hope so but no sure thing).
 
#44
We finally find something we can agree on. I don't think Biden lasts the full term. He has already said he will be a one-term POTUS. If that is the case I can see him stepping aside during his term. Doing so greatly helps his Veep. If he does it right and I think he will. POTUS can not serve more than 2 full terms. But the length of someone's time in office is like a dollar bill. If you have 60% of a dollar bill you have legal tender. If you have 40% you do not.

What I think happens is: Biden serves slightly more than 2 years. He then steps aside. Doing so helps the Veep in soooooooo many ways. First: Come 2024 she is running as an incumbent and not one of a large group of candidates. She now gets the entire party behind her as opposed to what we saw from the Repubs in 2016 and the Dems in 2020. And by stepping aside after his term is half way over means the Veep can now run for POTUS in 2024 AND 2028 since she served less than half a term.

Of all of the Dems being considered I do think Kamala Harris would make the best POTUS. But of all of the Dems running she is the one who will hurt him the most on the ticket. Biden doesn't need Harris to win CA. I could be his Veep and he still wins CA.

This election will not be decided by 50 States. Right now we know for a fact who will win at least 43 States. If not more. This election will be decided by a handful (or slightly more) states. This election will be decided by who wins: AZ, FL, GA, NC, WI and maybe 1 more. Harris hurts him in those states more than helps him. If Biden wins Harris will either be the AG or replace RBG on the Supreme Court (assuming RBG lives that long - we hope so but no sure thing).
more reasonable than most snowflakes
 
#46
States don't get won by VP selections, they aren't going to think much about that. All they are looking at is how does the VP pick placate the most left parts of the party. As for stepping aside, I just don't see it happening unless his health forces him to. Might seem likely now but no one runs for President without having the ego and hunger for power that will allow them to just step aside for party reasons. I could see him saying I won't run again and following through with that, but I wouldn't put money on it.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#49
Best, most common sense article I've seen on the Veepstakes, and I think it'll be The Ugandan Giant, and why it should be:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-biden-really-needs-vp-pick

What Biden Really Needs From a VP Pick

Amy Walter
August 7, 2020
@amyewalter
We are in an incredibly volatile time and a stable political environment. President Trump's political standing, while still weak, seems to have stabilized. Yet, at the same time we don't seem to be making any real progress in getting the COVID-19 crisis under control.
Every one of our major normal political touchstones (campaign rallies, political conventions, and non-stop campaign process stories) has been eliminated or greatly altered. This means political reporters, activists and cable news chatters are bereft of much of their traditional sustenance.
But, one campaign staple has remained: the hand-wringing and over-analyzation of the Vice Presidential vetting process.
I usually avoid getting sucked into the VP speculation frenzy. No one votes for — or against — a presidential candidate because of his/her running mate.
That's doubly true this year. The race for the White House isn't so much between Biden and Trump; it is between Trump and not-Trump. Or, as Kabir Khanna, an election analyst for CBS news put it: "While most Trump supporters say they're mainly voting for him because they like him, about half of Biden voters say opposition to Mr. Trump is driving their vote. Together, this means that across parties, most voters are basing their decisions mainly on how they feel about the president. Biden backers appear to express less enthusiasm, in part, because they are driven more by antipathy toward Mr. Trump than loving their candidate."
But, won't this the lack of "enthusiasm" for Biden's candidacy hurt him? And, can't the right VP pick help to mitigate that?
For one, we know that anger — not love — is the greatest motivator for voting. And, we know that there's more deep antipathy to Trump than strong approval for him. In the latest Fox News poll (July 12-15), 45 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president; that's 17 points higher than those who strongly approve of the job he's doing.
That gap — with more strongly disapproving than approving of Trump — has been there since the beginning of his presidency.
Veteran pollster Mark Blumenthal argues that it's misleading to assume that enthusiasm to vote automatically translates into the intent to vote. For example, when respondents of the Economist/YouGov survey were asked if they are "enthusiastic" about their candidate, "better than two-thirds of Trump supporters (68%) felt "enthusiastic" about him compared to 40 percent of Biden supporters who felt the same about him." So, a win for Trump, right?
But, when you drop the word "enthusiasm" from the question and replace it with the word "important" ("how important is voting for President this November,"), the gap disappears. Just as many Biden voters (92 percent) as Trump supporters (91 percent) consider voting this year to be very important. Blumenthal also points to recent studies by CBS and the Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group which found that a person's stated enthusiasm wasn't predictive of whether they showed up to vote.
It's also true that younger voters, and especially younger voters of color, have long been cool to Biden's candidacy. Putting a Black woman on the ticket doesn't suddenly turn them into Biden stans. But, it does at least say to these voters that he understands the important role that Black voters and, specifically, Black women play in the party. Putting the first woman of color on a major party ticket would also help mute the very unhistoric candidacy of yet another older, white guy.

At this moment of racial reckoning, it would be riskier for Biden not to choose a woman of color as his Vice President. The choice of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Sen. Elizabeth Warren feels like the political equivalent of 'not reading the room.'
Given Biden's age, his VP pick will also get more attention than usual from voters. After all, it's not inconceivable that this person will be asked to step in to take over the most stressful job in the world. This isn't the time for outsiders. Someone who understands how Washington works — and has been a part of it — is a plus. The four most-oft mentioned Black women; former UN Ambassador Susan Rice, Reps. Val Demings and Karen Bass and Sen. Kamala Harris, all have Washington experience. But, none of them have been tested and vetted the way Harris has. She didn't run a flawless campaign. But, she has experience on the presidential stage that the others don't. She's not a household name, but she is familiar. And, while she doesn't have the depth of White House experience as Rice, she has notably less baggage. According to press reports, Harris's biggest drawbacks are that she is overly ambitious, opportunistic and disloyal. These are things insiders care about; regular voters could care less. They just want to be assured that their president is loyal to them.
Biden is in the enviable position of leading this race with less than four months to go. He doesn't need to convince voters that Trump isn't doing a good job — a majority already feel that way. What he does need to do is assure them that he isn't a risky pick. One way to do this is to pick a VP that voters see as capable and experienced enough to take over if he can't continue to do his job. It's really not any more complicated than that.
 
#50
this election is about God, if you are a marxist non believer like blm founders, or an athiest jew or satanic pothead like many gamblers are, you will vote biden, IF you have a 401k, like to worship on sunday, dont want suburbs turned into urban shitholes you will vote Trump
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#51
this election is about God, if you are a marxist non believer like blm founders, or an athiest jew or satanic pothead like many gamblers are, you will vote biden, IF you have a 401k, like to worship on sunday, dont want suburbs turned into urban shitholes you will vote Trump



God

@TheTweetOfGod
· May 26
Donald Trump killed his personal assistant, Carolyn Gombell, in October 2000. He strangled her because he'd gotten her pregnant and was threatening to tell the press. Then he bribed NYPD Police Chief Bernie Kierik to cover it up. IT'S TIME TO INVESTIGATE. #JusticeForCarolyn
Show this thread
 

common guy

EOG Enthusiast
#52
Jesus likes to protest, flip the money changer tables. He stands with the people
this election is about God, if you are a marxist non believer like blm founders, or an athiest jew or satanic pothead like many gamblers are, you will vote biden, IF you have a 401k, like to worship on sunday, dont want suburbs turned into urban shitholes you will vote Trump
God sent his Son to spread love not hate,to defeat rulers like trump, to be a revolutionary and flip the table of the money changers and their 401ks. Not to be the purveyor of suburban racial supremacy like the SaturateOC or Harvest crowd.
 
#53
Jesus likes to protest, flip the money changer tables. He stands with the people

God sent his Son to spread love not hate,to defeat rulers like trump, to be a revolutionary and flip the table of the money changers and their 401ks. Not to be the purveyor of suburban racial supremacy like the SaturateOC or Harvest crowd.


How About Law and Order ?
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#56
Gretchen for 4 dimes

Tulsi for a walkoff
Not many books still have Veep picks listed.

I got Whitmer +1500 some time ago. She got as high as +2200 to +2500 but is now +500 trailing only Rice and Kamala.

I know Kamala is the fave but I just don't see her getting it. To me it is between Rice and Whitmer. I might be wrong (That would be a first) but I think it is between those 2. Whitmer makes sense because it could help him flip MI and I think she would make a better POTUS than Rice but we shall soon see.

Tulsi is TOAST!
 
#61
Good observation, Birdie. Quo is going to pick a hottie. He's choosing with his dick. Gretchen qualifies. Kamela is not too shabby but she's too threatening. Gretchen is a hottie and not threatening. I hope there is a Tulsi miracle. She also fits the quofile but probably not.
 

pbovi

EOG Dedicated
#68
Hey Bovi!
How are the horses treating you?
I have been in the Philippines since the end of Feb, thus it often times becomes a question of sleep vs horses as I am 12 hours ahead of EST. Still squeeze a few late nights or early mornings in. Caught the Spa finale today while Victor screwed me with the 3 in the Delmar finale. Hope you've been well. I'm sure when I drop anchor in 10 days, things will be unrecognizable.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#69
Whitmer is a terrific Gov, and has a great future. But now is not her time, and it would be yet another unforced error if Biden picks her. Like her or not, Maxine Waters voice carries alot of weight.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/maxine-waters-biden-black-woman-vp

Maxine Waters: Biden ‘can’t go home without a Black woman being VP’
"We’re going to have a Black woman VP," says Waters

Rep. Maxine Waters expressed confidence that a Black woman would be on the Democratic ticket as vice president.

In a Friday town hall with Essence, the California Democrat seemed certain Joe Biden would pick a Black woman as his running mate based on help he’s received from the Black community.

“Let me guarantee you this, based on everything that I know and understand, and the help that [Biden] has already gotten from the Black community…he can’t go home without a Black woman being VP,” Waters said. “We’re going to have a Black woman VP.”

Earlier on Saturday Biden raised eyebrows by telling Fox News he’d decided on a vice president, a decision much anticipated after his campaign reportedly narrowed the list to a handful of choices.

BIDEN QUIPS TO FOX NEWS HE DECIDED ON VP, CAMPAIGN SAYS IT'S A JOKE

“Yeah, I have,” Biden told Fox in Delaware when asked whether or not he’d chosen a VP.

When Fox News asked who, Biden quipped "you" in response. It was initially unclear how if Biden's initial response, made during a bike ride in a state park, was serious.

Biden confidants, who spoke to Axios, said the final two candidates are Sen. Kamala Harris of California, and Susan Rice, who served as national security adviser and ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama's administration.

Last week, Biden told reporters that he would choose his party's vice presidential nominee by "the first week in August." But a source familiar with the process told Fox News on Monday that "an announcement isn't likely this week."



With the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) nearing, a leading Biden adviser said the former vice president would use the next week or so to "spend some time" with the contenders on the shortlist.
 
#70
You don't know shit, Guesser. Maxine Waters. Give me a break. Maxine has zero Samantha Power and even less say. Democrats only put up with her to keep mobiles content.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#71
So if Biden doesn’t choose a black woman for a running mate, the blacks are going to vote for Trump? This reading the room sounds as dumb as BR’s being on the right side of history.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#72
You don't know shit, Guesser. Maxine Waters. Give me a break. Maxine has zero Samantha Power and even less say. Democrats only put up with her to keep mobiles content.
Sorry Cat. Someone stupid enough to bet over $1000 on Never had a shot Traitor Tulsi to be the VP has no standing talking about D Politics or Politicians. Yes, that's exactly why D's "put up with her", and that's why she'll very likely be right.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#73
So if Biden doesn’t choose a black woman for a running mate, the blacks are going to vote for Trump? This reading the room sounds as dumb as BR’s being on the right side of history.
Nope, but they will not vote for Biden in as great numbers as they would have, with as much enthusiasm as they might have, be willing to overcome voter suppression as they might have been. He'll create an enthusiasm gap when there's no need to. The Reading the Room is very accurate, and I suspect Biden and his people get it. If they don't, it will be Biden's first Enormous error of his campaign. BR was also correct.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#74
Nope, but they will not vote for Biden in as great numbers as they would have, with as much enthusiasm as they might have, be willing to overcome voter suppression as they might have been. He'll create an enthusiasm gap when there's no need to. The Reading the Room is very accurate, and I suspect Biden and his people get it. If they don't, it will be Biden's first Enormous error of his campaign. BR was also correct.
What about the whites that will have little interest in voting for a Biden/whoever ticket because they have no confidence in it? A Biden/Kamala ticket isn’t unifying anything, sorry.
 
#75
Sorry Cat. Someone stupid enough to bet over $1000 on Never had a shot Traitor Tulsi to be the VP has no standing talking about D Politics or Politicians. Yes, that's exactly why D's "put up with her", and that's why she'll very likely be right.
If it was DeBlasio vs Trump, who gets your vote?
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#77
If it was DeBlasio vs Trump, who gets your vote?
The incompetent, ineffective, bumbling DeBlasio, 1000%. As would virtually any breathing human being get my vote over the Fascist Traitor. You can fix incompetence with competent people around him. The latter is doing it because he sold out his Country. You can't fix Traitor, you can only remove and imprison one.
 
#78
The incompetent, ineffective, bumbling DeBlasio, 1000%. As would virtually any breathing human being get my vote over the Fascist Traitor. You can fix incompetence with competent people around him. The latter is doing it because he sold out his Country. You can't fix Traitor, you can only remove and imprison one.



on april 15, 2021 just be ready to send a check to the IRS ... taxes will go up big time , even more so with biden.
 
#79
The incompetent, ineffective, bumbling DeBlasio, 1000%. As would virtually any breathing human being get my vote over the Fascist Traitor. You can fix incompetence with competent people around him. The latter is doing it because he sold out his Country. You can't fix Traitor, you can only remove and imprison one.
Thank you for playing and being honest for a change. You have made my point.
 
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