2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Hard not to like the Rays today. Riding an 8 game win streak, and a big "road" game vs Toronto. It's about 20 miles north from Tropicana Field to TD Field in Dunedin. Basically a high school level road trip. Jays also streaking on a 3 game losing streak.

In the Arizona/Colorado game, I'd be curious how Bumgarner pitches. He was on a good roll but left his last start early May 17th with an ankle issue. No margin for error in that park.

Does anyone fear St. Louis? Maybe when Flaherty pitches but they really look like a mirage. Don't let Arenado beat you. Goldschmidt looking pretty mortal with a slugging pct in low 400s. Molina has hit well but at his age, could slip at any time. The rest of the lineup isn't much and the bullpen sucks. Dead last in K/BB ratio.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Does anyone fear St. Louis? Maybe when Flaherty pitches but they really look like a mirage. Don't let Arenado beat you. Goldschmidt looking pretty mortal with a slugging pct in low 400s. Molina has hit well but at his age, could slip at any time. The rest of the lineup isn't much and the bullpen sucks. Dead last in K/BB ratio.


I definitely do not fear them
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Speaking of the Sox, they are in a prime spot tonight. Not only facing a mediocre lefty in Kim, but the Cardinals are coming off a tough loss to hated rivals the Cubs last night on Sunday Night baseball. The Cardinals squandered numerous opportunities, including a bases loaded, nobody out scenario where they couldn't generate a run. Their closer also threw quite a few .pitches last night and is likely unavailable tonight. The Sox were swept by the Yanks but not embarrassed. They fought back well on Sunday, tying the game on a HR against Chapman in the 9th.

Tampa just keeps rolling. 10 straight wins and a brutal loss by Toronto.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
I'd like to say I've ridden this Tampa win streak all the way, but its only been the last 3 games. But at -111 today, I see no reason to stop. Toronto had them down 4-2 in the 9th, looking at not only ending the Rays 9 game win streak but their own 4 game losing streak. And Chatwood and Bergin just could not find home plate, as they walk home 2 runs to put Tampa in front for good, so Toronto not in a real good mental state right now.
 
With ya on TB and CWS

Have to ride streaks at good prices. The CWS run losing only twice against LHP the last two years is insane

Reminds me of a few short years ago when TOR used to go TT over against LHP’s almost every game
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
From what I've seen, this starting the extra innings with a runner on second hasn't sped the games up at all. Yes, its easier to score, but just as easy for the opponent to re-tie the game. Look at today. Tampa/Toronto tied at 5 at end of 9 innings. Tampa pushes 2 across in top of 10th, only to see Toronto tie the game back up at 7 in bottom of the 10th. Don't like 18 inning games? Fine, play a 12 inning max and allow ties. But this nonsense putting an unearned runner on 2nd isn't right.
 
From what I've seen, this starting the extra innings with a runner on second hasn't sped the games up at all. Yes, its easier to score, but just as easy for the opponent to re-tie the game. Look at today. Tampa/Toronto tied at 5 at end of 9 innings. Tampa pushes 2 across in top of 10th, only to see Toronto tie the game back up at 7 in bottom of the 10th. Don't like 18 inning games? Fine, play a 12 inning max and allow ties. But this nonsense putting an unearned runner on 2nd isn't right.
Talk about 2 wrong side winners. At the end of 9 innings Toronto pitchers had 0 earned runs and Jays batters has as many home runs as Rays had hits.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Brewers swept the padres last time... padres now playing much better tatis finally swinging good.. woodruff beat the pads last time in SD. I like the pads in a return match
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Talk about 2 wrong side winners. At the end of 9 innings Toronto pitchers had 0 earned runs and Jays batters has as many home runs as Rays had hits.

Toronto pitchers also issued 7 walks in each of those two games. The Rays? 1 walk allowed in 2 games.

Love seeing a team winning hitting less HRs. Anything to stop those moronic hitting approaches of swinging from the heels every pitch.
 
"Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

DETROIT +132 over Cleveland

Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) is coming off his first win of the season, giving up just two runs on four hits to the Mariners last Wednesday. Skubal now brings a 1-6 record to the table with a chance to win back to back games for the first time in his young career. One of the reasons that Skubal has had limited success in the bigs is because he's been unable to transfer his elite minor league strikeout prowess at this level. That's not to say it won't come, because he has the stuff and he’ll study the batters. The Tigers are loaded with quality pitching prospects and Skubal is very much a part of that mix. His 5.45 ERA is a work in progress, but he's improving game by game. Dude flamed nine M's in five innings last time out and has now struck out 13 batters over 11 innings in his two starts prior to that. Skubal has also been better at home, where he sports a 4.09 ERA across 22 innings pitched.

Aaron Civale (RHP - CLE) is perfectly serviceable when in the role of the underdog, but spotting a price on the road with him and the Indians is not a play we can get behind. Civale sports a 3.30 ERA, but that number is propped up by a low swing and miss rate that sits at just 9.6%, well below the league average. He's also been quite lucky with a BABIP of .230. League average is .284 so a correction is inevitably forthcoming. When you walk guys and have limited strikeout potential, over time, that trouble is going to catch up with you. Civale has two wins already this season over the Tigers, butt his will now be the third time they have seen him. That can’t hurt. Backing up Civale are some of the weakest sticks in all of baseball, as the Indians are third worst in batting average at .217. Against lefties, the Tribe are hitting just .213. The streets of Vegas are littered with tickets featuring weak hitting road favorites with serviceable pitchers starting. Today’s overpriced Indians might add more litter to The Strip."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/picks.php?pid=25371


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Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.



"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
"Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

DETROIT +132 over Cleveland

Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) is coming off his first win of the season, giving up just two runs on four hits to the Mariners last Wednesday. Skubal now brings a 1-6 record to the table with a chance to win back to back games for the first time in his young career. One of the reasons that Skubal has had limited success in the bigs is because he's been unable to transfer his elite minor league strikeout prowess at this level. That's not to say it won't come, because he has the stuff and he’ll study the batters. The Tigers are loaded with quality pitching prospects and Skubal is very much a part of that mix. His 5.45 ERA is a work in progress, but he's improving game by game. Dude flamed nine M's in five innings last time out and has now struck out 13 batters over 11 innings in his two starts prior to that. Skubal has also been better at home, where he sports a 4.09 ERA across 22 innings pitched.

Aaron Civale (RHP - CLE) is perfectly serviceable when in the role of the underdog, but spotting a price on the road with him and the Indians is not a play we can get behind. Civale sports a 3.30 ERA, but that number is propped up by a low swing and miss rate that sits at just 9.6%, well below the league average. He's also been quite lucky with a BABIP of .230. League average is .284 so a correction is inevitably forthcoming. When you walk guys and have limited strikeout potential, over time, that trouble is going to catch up with you. Civale has two wins already this season over the Tigers, butt his will now be the third time they have seen him. That can’t hurt. Backing up Civale are some of the weakest sticks in all of baseball, as the Indians are third worst in batting average at .217. Against lefties, the Tribe are hitting just .213. The streets of Vegas are littered with tickets featuring weak hitting road favorites with serviceable pitchers starting. Today’s overpriced Indians might add more litter to The Strip."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/picks.php?pid=25371


--------------------------------------


Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.



"Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results"
"Past success is no guarantee of future success"
I had to play Cleveland. Both teams are weak hitting, but Cleveland has all the advantages in pitching.

Interesting that StL is a dog tonight, but I'm on the ChiSox.
 
SF -115

Anyone have any ideas why this is at -115 instead of SF -150? AZ on a 9 game losing streak and I’ll take my chances with Cueto (even the current old beat up JC) over Kelly anytime
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
SF -115

Anyone have any ideas why this is at -115 instead of SF -150? AZ on a 9 game losing streak and I’ll take my chances with Cueto (even the current old beat up JC) over Kelly anytime

I had thought the same thing; the bizarre betting action on Arizona was baffling. When I went to bed it was 4-0 Arizona in around the 3rd inning. I had written the bet off as a loss. I can't say I'm shocked but definitely surprised, as a snake bit (pun intended) team like the Diamondbacks will find creative ways to lose.
 
I had thought the same thing; the bizarre betting action on Arizona was baffling. When I went to bed it was 4-0 Arizona in around the 3rd inning. I had written the bet off as a loss. I can't say I'm shocked but definitely surprised, as a snake bit (pun intended) team like the Diamondbacks will find creative ways to lose.
Ive always respected sharp moves in football and basketball but MLB sharp steam doesn’t make sense to me most of the time. Maybe it’s often paralysis by over analysis?
 
Arizona 0-10 L10, a -109 fav tonight hosting StL.

Baltimore 0-9 L9, a +195 dog tonight at CWS.

Pittsburg 0-5 L5, a +130 dog losing 1-0 to the Cubs in the 2nd.
 
Ive always respected sharp moves in football and basketball but MLB sharp steam doesn’t make sense to me most of the time. Maybe it’s often paralysis by over analysis?
SF -115

Anyone have any ideas why this is at -115 instead of SF -150? AZ on a 9 game losing streak and I’ll take my chances with Cueto (even the current old beat up JC) over Kelly anytime
lol As predicted Kelly overwhelmingly out pitched Cueto. No way anyone with half a brain watched that game didn't come away knowing AZ was the right side. Leading by 2 going into the 8th out hit the Giants 13-9. It's baseball the right side losses a lot.
 
lol As predicted Kelly overwhelmingly out pitched Cueto. No way anyone with half a brain watched that game didn't come away knowing AZ was the right side. Leading by 2 going into the 8th out hit the Giants 13-9. It's baseball the right side losses a lot.
Merril Kelly is a garbage pitcher. Been watching him since his days at ASU.

AZ fucking up a game to lose their 10th straight is not the “right side”


0-19 streak parlay for me tonight

CWS/STL
 
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