2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Cubs/Padres Arrieta vs Darvish (I think) Cubs + 176 Padres -210 currently o/u 8 juiced to under -118

What are peoples thoughts on this game? I find it intriguing.

I'm a lifelong Cub fan but I have no problem betting against them when the situation dictates. I can't make any case for betting them today. Arrieta off game scores of FIVE and 22 in his last 2 starts. That is really bad. Sometimes we can overlook one poor start but two consecutive horrendous starts and we start wondering if there's a physical issue. Darvish a clear top line starter. Both bullpens are top 10, so the real edge is in starting pitching. Cubs dead last in WRC+ the past 7 days. I never lay a run and a half with a home team but I will lay a half run first 5.

What team has the best WRC+ in the past 7 days? None other than Baltimore, who has been killng lefties all season.
 
Texas and Arizona can’t win on the road…both teams are in the midst of long losing streaks…


"On Wednesday, they dropped a 4-0 game to the A's, their 19th consecutive loss on the road.

It is the longest streak of consecutive losses in Major League Baseball since the 1985 Pittsburgh Pirates dropped 19 games in a row away from home."
 
A betting value question for today's game. So Nats are -170s which is way too rich for my blood. Can't lay this price on an otherwise mediocre team even with a good pitcher. The five inning line is slightly higher, recognizing the starters discrepancy. Nats -0.5 on the five inning line is -120 and Scherzer is +100 to record a win at Pointsbet.

Questions are is there value betting him to get a win? Or is there better value laying the -0.5 and paying a little juice? Trying to game theory out here what are proper adjustments when you have an ace pitcher that you know the manager is going to leave out there 5 innings unless he's getting shelled making a win seem fairly likely if they lead after 5. Are the Nats going to blow enough games to where the extra 20 cents is worth it, especially considering the offset that the Nats could be tied or slightly behind after 5 but win it in the 6th or 7th when Scherzer might still be pitcher of record.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
A betting value question for today's game. So Nats are -170s which is way too rich for my blood. Can't lay this price on an otherwise mediocre team even with a good pitcher. The five inning line is slightly higher, recognizing the starters discrepancy. Nats -0.5 on the five inning line is -120 and Scherzer is +100 to record a win at Pointsbet.

Questions are is there value betting him to get a win? Or is there better value laying the -0.5 and paying a little juice? Trying to game theory out here what are proper adjustments when you have an ace pitcher that you know the manager is going to leave out there 5 innings unless he's getting shelled making a win seem fairly likely if they lead after 5. Are the Nats going to blow enough games to where the extra 20 cents is worth it, especially considering the offset that the Nats could be tied or slightly behind after 5 but win it in the 6th or 7th when Scherzer might still be pitcher of record.
I think you have to factor in the bullpen. I have SF ranked 18th in pen and Wash 20th, so not much of a difference. Teams like the White Sox and Cubs should be bet full game to take advantage of their strong bullpens while teams like Houston, Oakland and St Louis have weak to poor bullpens and should be played first 5. Granted how one ranks pens can be highly subjective. But in this case, there's little different in quality of the 2 pens. SF 136 WRC+ the past week while Wash a terrible 74 so the Giants a big advantage in recent hitting.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I can't answer but found the SP to win bet intriguing when often around +100 for a game in - 175 to - 200 range

Nats bats been terrible lately. 2nd to last in all of MLB vs righties woba last two weeks. O nly Texas and Wash below .250
 
I think you have to factor in the bullpen. I have SF ranked 18th in pen and Wash 20th, so not much of a difference. Teams like the White Sox and Cubs should be bet full game to take advantage of their strong bullpens while teams like Houston, Oakland and St Louis have weak to poor bullpens and should be played first 5. Granted how one ranks pens can be highly subjective. But in this case, there's little different in quality of the 2 pens. SF 136 WRC+ the past week while Wash a terrible 74 so the Giants a big advantage in recent hitting.

Certainly agree on that, pens matter. Only reason why I still bet a lot of full games is the pricing and juice are usually better, but a few teams you really have to consider shortening the game especially if there is not much or no premium or discount in the pricing. I did take the Rockies +195 on the 5 inning line today for that exact reason.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
I think the White Sox are going to really miss Madrigal. This guy was total "old school". Smart player, does the little things, doesn't give a shit about his exit velo, will hit the opposite way and actually changes his approach with 2 strikes. One things for certain, the 2022 White Sox are going to win a ton of games if Jimenez, Robert and Madrigal are back to 100%. I'm shocked they've done as well as they have missing Jiminez and Robert. But after one go-around the league, the are onto Mercedes and he's coming back to earth. On the mound, Rodon figured to be a #4 or 5 starter and he's been their best starter so far.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
^ as season goes on I like to look at previous 30 days for mor rrecent foem

Totally agree. Full season stats get stale.

Wash/SF back on today after getting rained out yesterday. Same pitchers. Have to wonder is there any effect on starting pitchers who are supposed to pitch one day, only to have the game cancelled, and come back a day later. Will they be better with one more day rest? Or is there a letdown after getting "geared up" to pitch on the original day? Many players are creatures of habit, and messing up the routine may be bad. And then again, to a guy like Scherzer, it may make no difference at all.
 
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