2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

HOU/SD over 8

Lamet once again attempting to prove his elbow is ok once and for all. Valdez making his season debut coming off injury

This number is priced as if both pitchers are at normal health and performance
 
"There were a lot more underdogs winning in April and early May and it’s not unreasonable to suggest weather was surely a factor. Well, the weather has taken a turn for the worse in the Midwest and on the East Coast and that means playing in 8 to 12 C conditions and that has to benefit the dog here."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/picks.php?pid=25390
Overall the prices have come down on favorites more dramatically than any season I can remember.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
"There were a lot more underdogs winning in April and early May and it’s not unreasonable to suggest weather was surely a factor. Well, the weather has taken a turn for the worse in the Midwest and on the East Coast and that means playing in 8 to 12 C conditions and that has to benefit the dog here."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/picks.php?pid=25390
There should be more dogs hitting in this timeframe as the markets are softer then.
 
STL/CWS parlay ...... have to keep riding 0-25 losing streaks

CWS -1.5 Doesn’t get any better than Giolito facing off against a LHP

SF + 155 SF is 4th in MLB with a .784 OPS against LHP and Gausman has been filthy so far this season..... I had SF priced at + 115

HOU/SD under 4.5 F5
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Detroit's starting pitching is definitely improved over a year ago. I like the Tigers F5 at +176 today. The White Sox have a huge bullpen edge so no point in playing full game. But Mize has been very good, and Keuchel, well. not so much. And against RHP, the White Sox are not unbeatable. Mercedes has really come back to earth after a great April. Next year, if they are at full strength with Jimenez and Robert back, it will be the Big White Machine.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Detroit's starting pitching is definitely improved over a year ago. I like the Tigers F5 at +176 today. The White Sox have a huge bullpen edge so no point in playing full game. But Mize has been very good, and Keuchel, well. not so much. And against RHP, the White Sox are not unbeatable. Mercedes has really come back to earth after a great April. Next year, if they are at full strength with Jimenez and Robert back, it will be the Big White Machine.

Think Lynn expected to start
 

MrTop

EOG Master
let's look at pecota

early season division picks on april 1st 2021

yanks
Minnesota
Hou
Mets
brewers
L.A.
 
How much would you be up this year if you bet the Rockies in every home game and against them in every road game? Must be a massive amount on less than 60 games played so far.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
How much would you be up this year if you bet the Rockies in every home game and against them in every road game? Must be a massive amount on less than 60 games played so far.



you have something there. It was probably a good play in the beginning of the year since we knew LA and SD were going to be real good. Both would steal all the wins.. Even better if anyone thought SF was going to be real good too.. which would make the rockies lose
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
How much would you be up this year if you bet the Rockies in every home game and against them in every road game? Must be a massive amount on less than 60 games played so far.

i certainly havent bet them every home game but I have the last 2. But with the Rockies; bet the F5. Their bullpen is trash. And what's strange is guys like Marquez and Gray actually seem to be better at Coors than on the road. Didn't think it was possible but must the movement they get.
 
i certainly havent bet them every home game but I have the last 2. But with the Rockies; bet the F5. Their bullpen is trash. And what's strange is guys like Marquez and Gray actually seem to be better at Coors than on the road. Didn't think it was possible but must the movement they get.

Gray just looks like a confident guy pitching in Coors. He works fast and doesn't worry about giving up a hit or two knowing you have to score a lot to win. Marquez was hit or miss for awhile but he was really on few nights ago when I went out there. I think he is very good with the speed changes to keep hitters off balance. Doesn't throw as hard as he used to as well, probably part of it. I had good seats and the difference between his heat and that of Bard was noticeable. He doesn't try to blow guys away as much which probably is the secret to success in Coors. Off balance hitters will make contact but not enough to clear the deep fences.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Gray just looks like a confident guy pitching in Coors. He works fast and doesn't worry about giving up a hit or two knowing you have to score a lot to win. Marquez was hit or miss for awhile but he was really on few nights ago when I went out there. I think he is very good with the speed changes to keep hitters off balance. Doesn't throw as hard as he used to as well, probably part of it. I had good seats and the difference between his heat and that of Bard was noticeable. He doesn't try to blow guys away as much which probably is the secret to success in Coors. Off balance hitters will make contact but not enough to clear the deep fences.

I forgot to mention Gomber, who also has had some good outings at Coors.

I will be on them first 5 with Gray going up against an AL team not used to playing at 5200 feet above sea level.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Curious to see the Salami today. Not a fan of Salami Overs on Sundays, but there's a number of starting pitchers today coming off poor starts or more than one poor start. I wanted to fade Bauer, who's had a velocity drop, but Fried coming off a poor outing himself. Neither pen is any good this year; maybe just bet the full game over. Alcantara, Hendricks, Paddock all coming off weak efforts.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Giants with a number of injuries now. Longoria Yaz, Belt out. Crawford was in a collision the other day and not in lineup on Sunday. The Giants may be at their peak power rating now, and likely will regress to the mean and could be some good opportunities to fade them.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Giants with a number of injuries now. Longoria Yaz, Belt out. Crawford was in a collision the other day and not in lineup on Sunday. The Giants may be at their peak power rating now, and likely will regress to the mean and could be some good opportunities to fade them.


They are uncharacteristically hitting a lot of home runs this season considering they play in a pitcher's park.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Steve Merrill with a very interesting take on some of the pitchers who've substantially improved in recent years, particularly in spin rate. Has the clock struck midnight?

 

Heim

EOG Master
I can't remember the last time I've seen a pitcher (Bundy) 0-6 favored in the mid 150s.
 
Interesting angle there, the data that is being collected is going to make cheating hard to do. The spin rates going up seems such an obvious marker, really hard to improve on those after a year or two in the MLB. These older guys seeing improvement makes it rather obvious, your raw skills are going to decline, not improve. To remain an elite pitcher you need to work on your pitch placement and your pitch mix.

Something to think about though is that if data is going to prevent a lot of cheating, will make many teams think twice about paying big money to free agents. Just work on bringing in the next crop of 22-24 year old pitchers who are probably close to reaching raw physical peak. I believe Rays are taking this sort of path with the trade of Snell but also on the opener strategy. Just go get kids to throw a few innings max using their best stuff and then give them 1-2 days off to get back at it. In time I wouldn't be surprised if this is how baseball evolves.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
If one bets props or plays fantasy for MLB, Jesse Winker is a must use. Not only did he hit 3 HRs on Sunday, his lifetime stats against Houser are incredible:

13 at bats
8 hits
5 home runs

Current form meets head to head dominance over a pitcher.
 

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Dedicated
Cubs/Padres Arrieta vs Darvish (I think) Cubs + 176 Padres -210 currently o/u 8 juiced to under -118

What are peoples thoughts on this game? I find it intriguing.
 
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