2021 MLB thread

MrTop

EOG Master
Of course we are all well aware the linemaker has the weather factored in. Nobody knows that more than me. In the early 2000s I was blindly betting overs in games with a game time temp of 85 or more and it worked for a number of years. Then, gradually, it started to fade. It would work until mid Aug. Then eventually it could no longer be blindly bet.

Are you saying games with high totals are as likely to end with a margin of 1 than low totals? That's crazy. The range of possible outcomes is completely different.

Enough is enough.



it is not the W/L record on games with low totals / high totals that matters 100% . What are the + / - units per year because there is juice. I am sure that the odds makers have this info and there are could be some bettors that could have this too. If you choose spots anything can work.



look at the miami / cub game -1-1/2 +90 @ cris

7 run total


winner.



saying this will work or not without the data is worthless.
 
Last edited:

MrTop

EOG Master
right now i got the WS winning the AL.

the NL I got the brewers or dodgers. I sure hope i don't have to bet against the giants in the playoffs.


for news matter only
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
it is not the W/L record on games with low totals / high totals that matters 100% . What are the + / - units per year because there is juice. I am sure that the odds makers have this info and there are could be some bettors that could have this too. If you choose spots anything can work.



look at the miami / cub game -1-1/2 +90 @ cris

7 run total

winner.



saying this will work or not without the data is worthless.
If you can find the hot/cold teams, there is money to be made in this. The Cubs are 1-14 this month - lost only 2 1-run games.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Overall Sherwood is up about 50 units in MLB since 2004.


The game has had giant changes several times over since 2004. In 2004, I was blindly betting overs in 85 degree weather and hitting 55%. The game was still loaded with steroid freaks. Only a small number of teams were using analytics. There wasn't the obsession with 3 outcomes. The handicapping process was completely different. How many units is he up since 2016?
 
How many units is he up since 2016?

"2017
245-300-0 (+46.00)
2018
247-310-0 (+74.00)
2019
188-278-0 (-71.00)
2020
81-93-0 (+29.00)
2021
119-194-0 (-43.00)"

And do you have a publicly recorded record anywhere?
 
Last edited:
There is no more of an advantage to the home team -1.5 in extra innings than in previous years. You can only win on a 2+ run HR.


Before in a tied game in the bottom of the 10th, 11th, 12th, etc, you'ld lose holding -1.5 on the home team when the first batter hit a HR. Now you win.



I don’t think there is any thing to the sticky stuff and home team pricing either.

More runs scored is advantageous to laying -1.5 with home teams.


What if thr home team had the pitcher who was cheating?

What if it was the road team or both.

The biggest factors in the RL pricing is road vs home, and the total. A RL bet on a 7 total is different than a total of 10.

A total of 7 is more likely to be -1.5 +200. A total of 10 is more likely to be -1.5 +100. It's all about the price & making +EV bets. Otherwise you're just guessing & flipping coins.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
"2017
245-300-0 (+46.00)
2018
247-310-0 (+74.00)
2019
188-278-0 (-71.00)
2020
81-93-0 (+29.00)
2021
119-194-0 (-43.00)"

And you?

Very good year in 2016 winning 28 units, lost about 10 units in 2017 (the year the balls were tampered with). I'd have to look up 2018 and 2019. I know 2018 was profitable; 2019 was ok until but I hit a losing streak in final 6 weeks. Probably a wash between the 2 years. Up 9 units in 2020. I was up 40 units on June 20 of this year but have given 22 back but that's still +18,

But I'm not a tout either.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
it is not the W/L record on games with low totals / high totals that matters 100% . What are the + / - units per year because there is juice. I am sure that the odds makers have this info and there are could be some bettors that could have this too. If you choose spots anything can work.



look at the miami / cub game -1-1/2 +90 @ cris

7 run total


winner.



saying this will work or not without the data is worthless.

OK so you found one example of where it worked out.

Let's look at Monday's results. 5 home teams won by exactly one run: the Yankees 2-1, KC (as a dog) 7-6, Minnesota 5-4, Colorado 6-5 and the Dodgers 2-1.
 
Wow lots of "debate" over a bunch of stuff that was settled long ago. About 15 years ago there were some mathematically advantageous ways to attack the RL and some of it included laying the -1.5 with home teams as the books odds were overadjusted. But that was a time of a lot more scoring than today's game. Not to say there are no pricing mistakes out there, but I think these days there are fewer of them as the books have gotten smart enough to at least hire a few data guys who can price this stuff out extremely well.

I personally think for bankroll management its not a bad idea to lay the -1.5 if you really like the team, but yeah you are going to be disappointed with one run wins every now and then. For many bettors who lack good bet sizing and overall bankroll management skills, a loss backing a -200+ team is going to send them into tilt a bit so maybe to avoid that don't lay the big numbers or keep them in parlays. Not calling this efficient or edge-creating, just recognizing how most non-pros have some real gaps in their game dealing with baseball.

Yet Pinnacle seems to have quite low betting limits in MLB compared to NFL, major soccer leagues, etc.
 
Just a quick look of the last week of home teams and 1 run wins:

August 12: Mets, Phillies and White Sox
August 11: Twins, Mets and Seattle
August 10: Mets, Atlanta, Minnesota, San Fran, San Diego
August 9: zero but only 4 games were played
August 8: Toronto, Cincy and Atlanta
August 7: NYY, Toronto
August 6: NYY, Milwaukee

17 instances in the last week where the home team won by exactly one run. Not exactly a rare occurrence.

And road teams had a number of one run wins; not nearly as many, but again, not a rarity:

Aug 12: St. Louis (road favorite)
Aug 10: Oakland (road fave) Texas
Aug 8: San Fran and KC
Aug 7: Wash, Boston and Detroit
Aug 6: Minn and LAA

I0 one run wins by road teams.


How many home teams covered the -1.5 in that period & at what average + money price? Over the past 11 days favs, which are more often home teams, are 102-46. So there must have been many home teams covering the RL.

More significantly, as that is a small sample, how are home teams doing in units won/lost year by year in the last decade & broken down by teams? Is blindly betting on Colorado -1.5 at home the most likely to be profitable of all teams? This year they are doing well, but that may just be random luck.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
The home teams were favored far less than you might expect over the last 11 days. Here's a breakdown W/L of home favorites. I did not have the time to find units/won or lost, although with many regularly moneylined at -200 or more, the majority of run line favorites were not plus money.

Aug 16 3-3
Aug 15 3-2
Aug 14 2-4
Aug 13 2-2
Aug 12 3-5
Aug 11 4-2
Aug 10 1-6
Aug 9 1-0
Aug 8 6-7
Aug 7 8-6
Aug 6 8-5

That comes out to 41-42. During a run when all favorites won 102 out of 148 games, that is not good. One can only imagine what it would look like if favorites were not winning nearly 70% of the time.
 
The home teams were favored far less than you might expect over the last 11 days. Here's a breakdown W/L of home favorites. I did not have the time to find units/won or lost, although with many regularly moneylined at -200 or more, the majority of run line favorites were not plus money.

Aug 16 3-3
Aug 15 3-2
Aug 14 2-4
Aug 13 2-2
Aug 12 3-5
Aug 11 4-2
Aug 10 1-6
Aug 9 1-0
Aug 8 6-7
Aug 7 8-6
Aug 6 8-5

That comes out to 41-42. During a run when all favorites won 102 out of 148 games, that is not good. One can only imagine what it would look like if favorites were not winning nearly 70% of the time.

I don't know what the point of this info is. Not only is it a very small, therefore insignificant, sample, but also who's suggesting anyone blindly bet all home teams on the RL. Blindly betting all home teams -1.5 is no more a winning strategy than betting all road teams +1.5.

More significantly, as that is a small sample, how are home teams doing in units won/lost year by year in the last decade & broken down by teams? Is blindly betting on Colorado -1.5 at home the most likely to be profitable of all teams? This year they are doing well, but that may just be random luck.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I don't know what the point of this info is. Not only is it a very small, therefore insignificant, sample, but also who's suggesting anyone blindly bet all home teams on the RL. Blindly betting all home teams -1.5 is no more a winning strategy than betting all road teams +1.5.

More significantly, as that is a small sample, how are home teams doing in units won/lost year by year in the last decade & broken down by teams? Is blindly betting on Colorado -1.5 at home the most likely to be profitable of all teams? This year they are doing well, but that may just be random luck.

The Colorado scenario isn't blind luck. They already have a big HFA with the elevation. And as discussed earlier, they finally have figured out how to win at home. Avoid pitchers who rely too heavily on breaking pitches, preferring fastballs and changeups. And get speed to cover the vast ground in the outfield. But that isn't going to win the slugfests on the road. And when your hitters are used to seeing breaking pitches that hang at home, but now break big on the road, it's a tough adjustment.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
St Louis has 86 composite plate appearances against Burnes. 36 ended in a strikeout. That's over 40 pct of all plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Have to think he could go over 7 1/2,
 

MrTop

EOG Master
OK so you found one example of where it worked out.

Let's look at Monday's results. 5 home teams won by exactly one run: the Yankees 2-1, KC (as a dog) 7-6, Minnesota 5-4, Colorado 6-5 and the Dodgers 2-1.



if he is wrong where is the data. I am not saying you are wrong either. do you have a bigger sample like 2 yrs or more ? if you do ok.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Speaking of Colorado, Jake Arrieta is starting for the Padres there tomorrow. He has been a real gas can with the Cubs.
 
I don't know what the point of this info is. Not only is it a very small, therefore insignificant, sample, but also who's suggesting anyone blindly bet all home teams on the RL. Blindly betting all home teams -1.5 is no more a winning strategy than betting all road teams +1.5.

More significantly, as that is a small sample, how are home teams doing in units won/lost year by year in the last decade & broken down by teams? Is blindly betting on Colorado -1.5 at home the most likely to be profitable of all teams? This year they are doing well, but that may just be random luck.
The Colorado scenario isn't blind luck. They already have a big HFA with the elevation. And as discussed earlier, they finally have figured out how to win at home. Avoid pitchers who rely too heavily on breaking pitches, preferring fastballs and changeups. And get speed to cover the vast ground in the outfield. But that isn't going to win the slugfests on the road. And when your hitters are used to seeing breaking pitches that hang at home, but now break big on the road, it's a tough adjustment.

Luck is always a factor, both as regards one's own team & the many teams they're playing. Whether it's injuries (publicly revealed & unrevealed), mental/psychological states of players, scheduling advantages & disadvantages, acts of God (covid, etc), etc, etc, etc. How much luck has been factored into the Rockies excess home success this year is known only to those who are omniscient & could write up a 10 or 100 page report on the subject with 100% accuracy.

Of course bookies have since long ago known about Colorado's elevation & that is considered when making the lines, which means that is already baked into the line, removing any advantage the betting public might erroneously think they have on that basis. They already had the elevation advantage in past years, so it hasn't arrived this year to give them any extra advantage for this season.
 
Last edited:
colorado -1½ +201 over san diego

3:10 pm est. On may 12, the rockies fell to the padres 3-0, having been two-hit by joe musgrove. The loss, their fifth straight, dropped the team to 14 games below .500. After a travel day, the team fired off four consecutive wins, only to proceed to lose five in a row after that. The roller coaster was on its way.

on june 13, the rocks lost to the reds and found themselves 16 games under .500. They then won five straight. By june 27, they were back to 16 below. On july 29 they faced joe musgrove at petco and again got beaten 3-0, leaving them at 44-59, 15 games under .500. And on sunday, the rockies lost the rubber match to the giants and fell to 14 games below. It’s not really surprising that colorado has taken such a hectic approach to playing .500 ball since mid-may. Emotionally, the team has been a train wreck; after an offseason dominated by the nolan arenado trade, and the distinct lack of soul-searching that the team seemed to engage in its wake, the trade deadline was dominated by the team’s inability to find a buyer for the talented and imprisoned trevor story.

always a volatile team when it comes to travel, the rockies are 40-21 at home, a .650 winning percentage better than the record of any team in baseball and today they’re a pooch to jake arrieta (rhp - sd)? How can that be?

over the course of 11 seasons and more than 1500 career innings pitched, jake arrieta has been everything from one of the best pitchers in baseball’s history to significantly worse than a random triple-a thrower. His latest chapter ended with a thud when the cubs released him about a week ago following an unsuccessful stint with the phillies and an attempted rescue in chicago. The friars are so desperate for pitching that they’re giving him a chance and we cannot see this ending well. If the cubs were going to keep losing games, might as well lose them with some starters they can test out and not this stiff. Arrita’s last four games as a cub resulted in a 10.80 era to go along with a 5.5% swing & miss rate, not to mention a 2.50 whip. Dude is a human traffic jam.

this year has been absolutely putrid, not just by comparison to the best years of arrieta’s career, but by any standard. With an era close to seven over a full 20 starts, the cubs’ attempted revitalization has failed completely. This is not even a single-a worthy pitcher anymore and today he’s priced like he’s a #3 or 4 starter at the league’s toughest venue that wreaks havoc on pitchers like jake arrieta.


 
Good stuff, that's crazy he's still getting MLB starts. And in Coors Field, like literally the Padres couldn't just use their best AAA guy for this one? Can't believe Rockies +135 today, insanity!

I'm on the under too, but going half unit because yeah these teams are due for a 10-8 type final.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Discussion point; when a gruesome injury happens, do we have good live betting opportunities? I wasn't watching when Chris Bassitt was hit in the face by a line drive last night, but have to believe the A's were a bit shaken. They certainly didn't respond positively, getting shut out on 4 hits.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Luck is always a factor, both as regards one's own team & the many teams they're playing. Whether it's injuries (publicly revealed & unrevealed), mental/psychological states of players, scheduling advantages & disadvantages, acts of God (covid, etc), etc, etc, etc. How much luck has been factored into the Rockies excess home success this year is known only to those who are omniscient & could write up a 10 or 100 page report on the subject with 100% accuracy.

Of course bookies have since long ago known about Colorado's elevation & that is considered when making the lines, which means that is already baked into the line, removing any advantage the betting public might erroneously think they have on that basis. They already had the elevation advantage in past years, so it hasn't arrived this year to give them any extra advantage for this season.

Whether or not the bookies have baked into the line that the organization finally figured out how to utilize their HFA is questionable. The linemakers aren't perfect. They don't have to be.
 

Valuist

EOG Master

Run Line small totals MLB Spread

  • Record414-400-0, 50.9%

  • Margin 0.34​

  • Money Won -$4,133​

  • ROI-5.1%​

  • GradeD

Widget Copy Rename Delete
Hide Duplicates: Fade System:

Theory:​

Add the theory behind your system. (Edit)

[TABLE] 

Filter

Details

 

Edit

Home / Visitor

the team is the Home team


Edit

Closing Total Range

the closing total is between 6 and 8


Edit

Spread Range

the spread is between -1.5 and -1.5


Edit

Spread Juice Range

the juice on the spread is between -220 and 100


Edit

SeasonType

the game is played during the Regular season

[/TABLE]
 

1.5 with low totals MLB Spread

Widget Copy Rename Delete
Hide Duplicates: Fade System:

Theory:​

Add the theory behind your system. (Edit)

[TABLE] 

Filter

Details

 

Edit

SeasonType

the game is played during the Regular season


Edit

Home / Visitor

the team is the Visitor team


Edit

Closing Total Range

the closing total is between 6 and 8


Edit

Open Spread Range

the opening spread is between 1.5 and 1.5


Edit

Spread Juice Range

the juice on the spread is between -110 and 250

[/TABLE]
 
Ok so I ran these numbers real quick and like we said its a terrible idea. The 1st one is taking the home team -1.5 with low totals and the second one is basically fading that and taking the road team +1.5.
 
If one likes Colorado based on the fact they feel Arrieta is awful, why not play F5 instead? The San Diego bullpen is much better than the Colorado pen.

Sure, why not, or even F1, F3, F7. Though i assume the reward (+200) isn't the same for a -1/2 F5 pick. BTW if a bet is anything more than -110 or not + money, Sherwood may avoid a bet like the plague. Also I've never known him to post a 1H pick, though that doesn't mean he hasn't, but i think they would be rare. It seems his writeups are usually largely based on the pitching matchup, which might suggest F5 or F7 picks be bet, but, then, the pitcher/s he's backing or fading may still be in there beyond 5 innings. It would be interesting to see if he would have been more successful in MLB by using F5's instead.
 
Last edited:
I took the Over 14 pregame but just hit Under 16.5 -102 in game. Looks like each team is going to throw everything they got in the pen today because both teams have tomorrow off. Would love a middle here.
 
Inflated number burns the over bets at Coors yet again. The humidor is working, these totals should be between 10.5 and 12.5 max. If they didn't have the humidor it would be a festival of runs, the weather has been perfect for scoring with low humidity and plenty of heat for much of the summer.
 
Inflated number burns the over bets at Coors yet again. The humidor is working, these totals should be between 10.5 and 12.5 max. If they didn't have the humidor it would be a festival of runs, the weather has been perfect for scoring with low humidity and plenty of heat for much of the summer.
When they took Chi Ch out in the 3rd I ran to the computer to put in my Under bet. Thought I was fucked when Arrieta came out to hit in the 4th but he ended up pulling a hammy a few pitches into the 4th.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
So much for strength of schedule. Since the ASB, Kansas City is 10-2 against the White Sox, Houston and Milwaukee. Against everyone else they are 5-13.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Heard these 2 stats from a podcast. They haven't been verified but here they are:

1. Road favorites that are UNDER ,500 are 18-0 in August
2. Any favorite that is below .500 is 38-11 in August
 
Top