2021 MLB thread

"Chicago -1½ +141 over TAMPA BAY

5:10 PM EST. The Rays are the top team in the American League and they are a dog at home. Certainly, that might peak the interest of an unsuspecting market, no?

Michael Wacha (RHP - TB) will take the mound for Tampa, but dude has been getting torched all month. Wacha is 0-2, sporting an 11.57 ERA in August. Those poor results are backed up by an inflated 1.176 OPS and .435 average from wide-eyed opposing hitters.

The White Sox are coasting in the AL Central, but this series with Tampa should get their blood pumping, as they are looking up at the Rays in the overall AL standings. Lucas Giolito (RHP - CHI) will go for the South Side and he's been on point in his last four starts. While just 1-0 across that span, Giolito has posted a 2.03 ERA with 32 strikeouts to just seven walks across 26.2 innings. The White Sox have also received a boost from the return of star outfielder Luis Robert. Robert missed over a month with a strained hip flexor, but the time off served him well, as he's gone 12-for-28 with a pair of dingers, six RBIs and an OPS of 1.163 since his return. White Sox hold all the value here."

 
Winner with the 2 picks recently posted, including CWS -1.5 +141 yesterday, but not sold on this one or the "angle" it relies on. Are you? Comments?

"L.A. Angels -1½ +173 over

4:10 PM EST. Triston McKenzie (RHP - CLE) is coming off a one-hit performance against the Tigers in which he was perfect through 23 outs. That breakthrough performance has put the lanky rookie on the radar. As impressive as any near-perfect outing is, McKenzie, benefited greatly from a huge early lead that took much of the in-game pressure off of his plate. The Baseball Team were up 11-0 after three innings that night and McKenzie was never under the gun to get a big out. There is much to like in the rookie's profile, but consistency has been an issue with him, as it often is with young hurlers. Perhaps McKenzie picks up right where he left off, but we're willing to bet that will not likely be the case.

The Angels will answer with a rookie of their own in Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA), who will make his fourth career start. Detmers is a former 10th overall pick from 2020. When a dude makes it to the bigs that quickly after being drafted, it's worth noting. Detmers made 12 starts in Double-A before making one at Triple-A and then getting the call to the show. Dude's strikeout rate while with the Trash Pandas was an outstanding 16.17 K/9 and he posted a 13.5 K/9 mark in his one start in Salt Lake. Detmers appeared to get his legs underneath him last time out, posting his best start for the Angels thus far, giving up one run on three hits against an Astros lineup that is not easy to put away. While this play is primarily a fade on McKenzie coming off that near-flawless start, the Halos appear to be fine fodder to back that wager up."

 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
KC has been a nice little short-term $$$ making machine since the AS Break. On the flipside, the cubs havent won a home game in almost a month.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Winner with the 2 picks recently posted, including CWS -1.5 +141 yesterday, but not sold on this one or the "angle" it relies on. Are you? Comments?

"L.A. Angels -1½ +173 over

4:10 PM EST. Triston McKenzie (RHP - CLE) is coming off a one-hit performance against the Tigers in which he was perfect through 23 outs. That breakthrough performance has put the lanky rookie on the radar. As impressive as any near-perfect outing is, McKenzie, benefited greatly from a huge early lead that took much of the in-game pressure off of his plate. The Baseball Team were up 11-0 after three innings that night and McKenzie was never under the gun to get a big out. There is much to like in the rookie's profile, but consistency has been an issue with him, as it often is with young hurlers. Perhaps McKenzie picks up right where he left off, but we're willing to bet that will not likely be the case.

The Angels will answer with a rookie of their own in Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA), who will make his fourth career start. Detmers is a former 10th overall pick from 2020. When a dude makes it to the bigs that quickly after being drafted, it's worth noting. Detmers made 12 starts in Double-A before making one at Triple-A and then getting the call to the show. Dude's strikeout rate while with the Trash Pandas was an outstanding 16.17 K/9 and he posted a 13.5 K/9 mark in his one start in Salt Lake. Detmers appeared to get his legs underneath him last time out, posting his best start for the Angels thus far, giving up one run on three hits against an Astros lineup that is not easy to put away. While this play is primarily a fade on McKenzie coming off that near-flawless start, the Halos appear to be fine fodder to back that wager up."


McKenzie another excellent start.

Fair Warning, how on earth could the Cubs have been favored? 2-13 last 15, Duffy batting cleanup, went into the game with 11 straight losses. It just goes to show the linemaker doesn't know everything. They must be focusing on football and contending teams.
 
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MrTop

EOG Master
back in july the yankees 10 games behind, GM cashman said he was not worried. He felt good about the team. Then he traded for a few players.. Now winning 9 straight only 4 games out leaping over the red sox
 
back in july the yankees 10 games behind, GM cashman said he was not worried. He felt good about the team. Then he traded for a few players.. Now winning 9 straight only 4 games out leaping over the red sox


Who's your daddy now ;
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Tonight's game between the Angels and Indians will be from Williamsport PA, not Progressive Field. Dailybaseballdata.com showing the weather from Progressive Field.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
McKenzie another excellent start.

Fair Warning, how on earth could the Cubs have been favored? 2-13 last 15, Duffy batting cleanup, went into the game with 11 straight losses. It just goes to show the linemaker doesn't know everything. They must be focusing on football and contending teams.
As bad as KC was in the 1h of the season, they caught the Cubs for wins now. The Cubs may catch the Pirates yet.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
As bad as KC was in the 1h of the season, they caught the Cubs for wins now. The Cubs may catch the Pirates yet

It seems like the only way the Cubs can score runs is a HR by Wisdom. Wisdom is a pure RH pull hitter with a lot of swing and miss. 10 MPH wind blowing in from LF. Wisdom won't be hitting any HRs today. Hernandez does miss the strike zone quite a bit. Cubs best hope is get some walks and maybe someone like Happ or Bote can hit a double. The wind blowing in should favor KC, who actually can manufacture runs without the HR. They may have some bullpen issues as closer Barlow has pitched 3 straight days and two other relievers have pitched in 3 of L4. Sal Perez was out yesterday with a headache (ever hear of Tylenol?) so maybe he's in the lineup today. Might be setting up for a second half of game over. Cubs bullpen, once a strength, is now garbage with Kimbrel, Tepera and Chafin gone. KC's pen, terrible for the first half of the year, but good since, has been used heavy recently.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
"Bunch of streaks going on

Orioles lost 17 Braves won 8
Yanks won 9
Miami lost 6
Dodgers won 9"
Cubs set a team record with 13 straight home losses today. Actually like them tomorrow with Hendricks vs Colorado, but the under may be the better play.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Tim Anderson has missed the White Sox last 3 games, and the Sox have lost all 3. It's no coincidence. Anderson is the straw that stirs the drink that is the White Sox.

The A's still reeling from that series last week in Chicago when the bullpen got heavily worked. Then on Sunday against the Giants, the bullpen blows the game in the 8th, and last night, Trivino blows another save against the Mariners in the 9th inning.
 
This one sounds good. Thoughts?

"Washington -1½ +160 over MIAMI

7:10 PM EST. Erick Fedde (RHP - WAS) has made 20 starts this year and comes in with a below average 5-8 record to go along with his 5.14 ERA. His xERA of 4.42 is uninspiring also. However, over his last five starts, Fedde has walked 7 and struck out 23 over 24 frames while pitching to a 5.92/4.19 ERA/xERA split. His groundball rate is 50% so a closer looks shows that this former prospect is trending the right way. Truth is, he has not capitalized on multiple MLB opportunities but his minor league pedigree was very, very good and maybe, just maybe, he’s found something at the age of 28. That said, this wager is more of a straight fade on Miami’s starter.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP - MIA) is somehow 2-2 in his four starts with the Marlins, but he has been absolutely dreadful. In those 18 innings, he has a 9.68 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 6.66 xERA. Right-handed batters are destroying him this season, with a .974 OPS. To top it all off, the Nationals actually lead MLB with a .798 OPS against left-handed pitching. For whatever reason, the price on the Nats has been coming down this morning. At the time of this writing, Washington was a very playable price on the money line but we’re going to play the Nats on the run line. Point being, when the price to fade Luzardo is so cheap, or there is any type of takeback, you can pencil us in.

 

Valuist

EOG Master
Anderson and Hernandez both not in the White Sox lineup tonight. Hoskins and McCutcheon missing from the Philly lineup.
 

Heim

EOG Master
SEA Servais has to get some votes to win AL manager of the year. With the exception of Haniger, this teams lineup
is garbage. Seager is barely hitting his weight, yet still in the WC race.

The GM trades their closer in the midst of a winning streak and they keep rolling.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Tim Anderson has missed the White Sox last 3 games, and the Sox have lost all 3. It's no coincidence. Anderson is the straw that stirs the drink that is the White Sox.

The A's still reeling from that series last week in Chicago when the bullpen got heavily worked. Then on Sunday against the Giants, the bullpen blows the game in the 8th, and last night, Trivino blows another save against the Mariners in the 9th inning.


The last time Anderson played, he hit a game-tying homer in the ninth inning and a tiebreaking RBI single in the eleventh to give the White Sox a 7-5 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday night.
 

kane

EOG master
SEA Servais has to get some votes to win AL manager of the year. With the exception of Haniger, this teams lineup
is garbage. Seager is barely hitting his weight, yet still in the WC race.

The GM trades their closer in the midst of a winning streak and they keep rolling.
Smoke and mirrors, their run differential is the same as Detroit
 

kane

EOG master
Seattle is 68-58 with a -60 run differential
Washington 53-70 with a -52 run differential
Miami 51-74 with a -35
Colorado 57-68 with a -38
Detroit 60-66 with a -61

Smoke and mirrors
 

kane

EOG master
Seattle 68-58 with a -60 run differential
Toronto 65-58 with a +117
Oakland 70-56 with a +69
Atlanta 68-57 with a +88
Cincinnati 69-57 with a +39
San Diego 68-58 with a +80

Smoke and mirrors
 

Heim

EOG Master
They're the best hitting team in the majors in high leverage situations and nobody is even close.

Explains why they lead everyone in one run wins.

There has been some huge +differential teams that can't get out of the first round of the playoffs in past years, Red Sox to name one.

The only smoke and mirrors is run differential. I don't consider it a sharp metric anymore.
 
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This one sounds good. Thoughts?

"Washington -1½ +160 over MIAMI

7:10 PM EST. Erick Fedde (RHP - WAS) has made 20 starts this year and comes in with a below average 5-8 record to go along with his 5.14 ERA. His xERA of 4.42 is uninspiring also. However, over his last five starts, Fedde has walked 7 and struck out 23 over 24 frames while pitching to a 5.92/4.19 ERA/xERA split. His groundball rate is 50% so a closer looks shows that this former prospect is trending the right way. Truth is, he has not capitalized on multiple MLB opportunities but his minor league pedigree was very, very good and maybe, just maybe, he’s found something at the age of 28. That said, this wager is more of a straight fade on Miami’s starter.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP - MIA) is somehow 2-2 in his four starts with the Marlins, but he has been absolutely dreadful. In those 18 innings, he has a 9.68 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 6.66 xERA. Right-handed batters are destroying him this season, with a .974 OPS. To top it all off, the Nationals actually lead MLB with a .798 OPS against left-handed pitching. For whatever reason, the price on the Nats has been coming down this morning. At the time of this writing, Washington was a very playable price on the money line but we’re going to play the Nats on the run line. Point being, when the price to fade Luzardo is so cheap, or there is any type of takeback, you can pencil us in.


5-1 F, winner.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
How about them Yankees? I got them at +135 (Bookmaker.eu) yesterday. How often can you get a team at that price who's won 10 games in a row? And on a public team like the NYY?
 
How about them Yankees? I got them at +135 (Bookmaker.eu) yesterday. How often can you get a team at that price who's won 10 games in a row? And on a public team like the NYY?

Good call.

Atlanta F1 was getting pounded at Pinnacle. I would have posted a play on it in the BB thread but was busy making wagers ;

Some F1 line movements i've noticed at Pinnacle have been radical. And almost always golden.

BTW I wonder if their is any site or service that tracks F1 line & total movements like SBR does re F5 & FG lines & totals.
 
He makes the following pick sound like it's a no brainer pick of great value (he stops short of using the L word). [Someone might argue the same about blindly fading the Orioles since their losing streak hit about 6 games (now at 19).] Agree? Disagree?

"Detroit -1½ +168 over ST. LOUIS

1:10 PM EST. The Cardinals were a massive favorite last night with Jack Flaherty on the hill and lost their fifth game in their past seven outings. This is a team that just lost two of three to Pittsburgh and scored seven times in the three game set. They lost to Detroit last night and were shutout for the first seven innings.

Baseball is a funny game, as anything can happen but we’re going to trust that the back-to-anemic Cardinals offense is going to have to score some runs (and we’re not talking two or three) to prevent us from cashing this ticket. You see, the Tigers figure to get theirs because they are facing a pitcher that is worse than retired pitchers. For instance, if Jon Lester (LHP - St. L) was up against Bartolo Colon or Bronson Arroyo, we would be all over Colon or Arroyo. Today’s he’s facing Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET) and we don’t have to spot anything and could even take back 5 cents or so if we wanted to? Get the fuck outta here!!

There are a half dozen teams today that would be a -250 favorite over Lester. There are another 10 that would be a -200 favorite. There are maybe two teams (Baltimore and Miami) that should be evenly priced against Jon Lester and even that might be a stretch. Detroit can hit, they can score, they win games and they CANNOT be an underdog against Lester. it's absurd.

Aside from having a dead arm, Jon Lester has experienced some control issues in August while running into too many bats this month. He’s allowed four earned runs in three innings or less in three of his last four starts. The Tigers are much at their best against southpaws. Does it even matter who’s pitching for the Tigers? If this was a week ago and Charlie Watts (RH Drummer - Rolling Stones) was pitching for the Tigers, we’d still fade Lester. Jesus."

 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Not sure what lands you into the poor house faster - betting Colorado on the road, or betting on Zach Davies. I’m hoping the latter today.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I like Twins Jax stuff. Very underrated, his big issue is left handed bats however.

I like Ober for the Twins. I've cashed several strikeout props with him.

How about the White Sox yesterday? 18 hits but only 5 runs. That's almost impossible to do.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Not sure what lands you into the poor house faster - betting Colorado on the road, or betting on Zach Davies. I’m hoping the latter today.

In August: teams under .500 that are favored now on a 21-0 run (before today. We will see if Colo can carry this angle).
 

Heim

EOG Master
I like the Padres tonight but can't in good conscience bet them after firing their pitching coach
today. Shakes team and bettors confidence.
 
"Washington -1½ +160 over MIAMI

7:10 PM EST. Why not Washington again? For whatever reason, the Nats are being disrespected again in today’s market just like they were in last night’s opener. Today’s starting pitching matchup is even more favorable than yesterday’s, as the Nats will face a rookie that pitched at Double-A for the majority of this year.

Edward Cabrera (RHP - MIA) is making his major league debut after compiling a 3.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 29.1 IP over six games started at Triple-A after being promoted from Double-A in July. Cabrera is a strikeout right-hander (48 K’s in his 29.1 IP at Triple-A) going against a good contact club.

Cabrera got off to a slow start this year by opening on the IL with bicep tendonitis. There were reports his change had bumped at the alt site last year, but the delayed start put the 6'5", 217-pound Dominican on the periphery, especially considering the lost season. The 23-year-old has quietly upped his stock this year across two levels and so here we are. Obviously, he has upside but that 1.40 WHIP spells trouble. He walked 25 batters in 61 innings with three minor-league teams this year across three levels (just one appearance at Single-A). Falling behind major league batters is different from falling behind minor leaguers. We also don’t know how he’ll react to the big show. He’s evenly priced today against another rookie but the difference is that Washington’s rookie has paid some dues and has proven he belongs.

Josiah Gray (RHP - WAS) has gone six frames each of his last two games. A Marlins club with a .556 OPS over a seven-game losing streak from Aug. 16-22 figures as a welcome change for Gray. The Nationals rookie has faced four top-10 OPS opponents in his first six games. Dude has struck out 35 very good hitters in 30 innings and comes in without a victory yet. That figures to change here, as we get the superior starter pitching for the superior team.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Washington’s pitching staff has absolutely squashed Miami’s hitters all season long. The Nats are 8-3 against the Fish this year while holding the Marlins to a combined batting average of .203

 
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