Yeah, on a -- very -- quick scan, I didn't see any major (to me) changes to the SuperContest over and above upping the "max coin" entry limit to 7 entries per contestant (with "contestant" I believe being functionally determined by sharing the same social security number).
www.superbook.com
That move to 7 perhaps follows upon Circa going to 5 max entries per contestant (both contests previously were max 3 entries).
I don't know how much difference that is going to make. Last year, the top season-long prize in the SuperContest Classic was only $197,200. Just as recently as 2019, the top SuperContest Classic prize was $1,469,644.80.
That's due to a number of factors, including: (a) no doubt primarily, competition from Circa; (b) lingering cumulative effects of the Covid downturn over these past few years; and (c) I believe significantly, the SuperContest trying to compete with Circa by also offering extensive in-season mini-contests but without also guaranteeing a top prize amount like Circa does.
In that vein, all of the Circa money over the aggregate contest guarantee goes into the in-season prizes rather than the top prize, but that top prize nonetheless is guaranteed at $1,000,000.
Without also having that $1,000,000 top prize guarantee, the SuperContest has greatly cannibalized the season-long prizes in order to fund the in-season prizes to try and compete with Circa.
I understand the marketing allure of "you have multiple ways to win."
But -- and I'll defer to Bob on the math specifics -- it's very, very, very hard to: (a) hit the very, very, very high short-term percentage needed to win especially the shorter-term in-season contests; while (b) hitting that percentage for the specific 3, 4, 5, 6 or 9 weeks for that in-season prize (as opposed to instead having your great short-term run merely overlap two in-season contest periods); and (c) not chopping the already relatively (in comparison to $1.4 million) small prize because some other lucky f**ker or f**kers also were on a good run for that short haul.
It seems like to an extent fool's gold to me -- within a perhaps Quixotic overall venture in the first place -- to put down real money, at a $1,000 a pop, if your primary motivating factor is "I have so many chances to win because of these in-season mini-contests."
So, to me, while I understand the general public marketing allure, I'm very much disappointed when I see the SuperContest top prize get whittled -- by these in-season prizes in conjunction with other factors -- down to $197,200.
Personally, I'm playing (against the long odds) for life-changing money. There was a point where I think the total between the SuperContest, the Circa Millions, and the SuperContest Gold where you could pull in something like $3.4 million if you repeated Jarhead's feat from a while back and hit a trifecta of three major Las Vegas handicapping contests.
That opportunity evaporated into a plethora of much-harder-to-hit with far-less-return in-season contests -- with the only saving grace being the Circa Millions $1,000,000 top prize guarantee and the SuperContest Gold high-roller winner-take-all format ($400,000 last year, against a much smaller field than the large contests). (Absolutely love the Gold, "put your big boy/gal pants on and play big or go home.")
Again, this is me personally, but I'm not playing to crow on social media about an in-truth insignificant monetary win or to get my entry fees back.
I want a shot at BIG money. Just like the Parcells saying about "lifting all those weights," that's why I put all the work in, both in-season and during the offseason.
Look, I'm not one of these people that wants to tear down the contests, either a specific contest or the contests generally. I want to see multiple robust contests offering lots of money, so I'd rather build up than tear down.
But I'm disappointed in how things have evolved post-2019 in particular reference to the top prize money available, across the options currently available.
Maybe the extra max entries will reverse the trend. We'll see.
* * * * *
I believe that there may be a strategy for the SuperContest to return to big top prize money -- and more effectively compete with Circa -- within the current prize structure with all the in-season prizes.
It's either DraftKings and/or FanDuel that runs a multi-state handicapping contest (as distinguished from fantasy). That is, without having to rely on proxies, they run their handicapping contest in every state in which they are licensed to operate. So they potentially can generate a large, multi-state pool without people having to fly across the country to enter and then use a proxy in season. It appears to me that the contestants just enter in the state in which they reside and then participate in the multi-state pool created by the contest.
The SuperBook is licensed now in I believe 8 jurisdictions. If they similarly went multi-state with the SuperContest in those jurisdictions, they perhaps might markedly increase the overall prize pool and compete with Circa in a manner in which Circa cannot currently compete. (I believe Circa is only in Nevada at the moment, but is about to expand also to Illinois.)
Now, maybe DraftKings and/or FanDuel is just oblivious to potential issues with crossing state lines under the Wire Act, 18 USC 1084.
Or maybe not.
This is the text of the first two paragraphs of section 1084, with bold emphasis added:
(a) Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
(b) Nothing in this section shall be construed to prevent the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of information for use in news reporting of sporting events or contests, or for the transmission of information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on a sporting event or contest from a State or foreign country where betting on that sporting event or contest is legal into a State or foreign country in which such betting is legal.
I haven't researched this more deeply, and I'm not offering legal advice (in Nevada as an instead Louisiana lawyer), but it just seems like the text of the statute, on its face, provides an argument for being able to cross state lines between multiple jurisdictions ("from" one state "into" another) where sports betting is legal in those multiple jurisdictions.
If I were in sportsbook management, I most certainly would be asking counsel about the issue. Maybe the SuperBook has done so, and the answer was that the regulatory risk outweighed the potential benefit.
But I hope that the SuperBook -- and these guys are way sharp and are responsible for many innovations in the market -- at least have asked the question.
Because it's a fair bet that Derek Stevens with Circa will be asking his lawyers about that possibility as Circa expands to a multistate book.
* * * * *
One way or another, however, my "vote" is for these contests to shift the focus a bit more back to big top prize money. The in-season mini-contest prizes no doubt will remain a fixture going forward. But, e.g., in the case of Circa, how excess pool money (i.e., after any overlay is eliminated) is applied can make considerable difference regarding the size of the top prize.
Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest
The SuperContest® is the ultimate pro football handicapping contest in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook®, the world's largest race and sports book.
www.superbook.com
That move to 7 perhaps follows upon Circa going to 5 max entries per contestant (both contests previously were max 3 entries).
I don't know how much difference that is going to make. Last year, the top season-long prize in the SuperContest Classic was only $197,200. Just as recently as 2019, the top SuperContest Classic prize was $1,469,644.80.
That's due to a number of factors, including: (a) no doubt primarily, competition from Circa; (b) lingering cumulative effects of the Covid downturn over these past few years; and (c) I believe significantly, the SuperContest trying to compete with Circa by also offering extensive in-season mini-contests but without also guaranteeing a top prize amount like Circa does.
In that vein, all of the Circa money over the aggregate contest guarantee goes into the in-season prizes rather than the top prize, but that top prize nonetheless is guaranteed at $1,000,000.
Without also having that $1,000,000 top prize guarantee, the SuperContest has greatly cannibalized the season-long prizes in order to fund the in-season prizes to try and compete with Circa.
I understand the marketing allure of "you have multiple ways to win."
But -- and I'll defer to Bob on the math specifics -- it's very, very, very hard to: (a) hit the very, very, very high short-term percentage needed to win especially the shorter-term in-season contests; while (b) hitting that percentage for the specific 3, 4, 5, 6 or 9 weeks for that in-season prize (as opposed to instead having your great short-term run merely overlap two in-season contest periods); and (c) not chopping the already relatively (in comparison to $1.4 million) small prize because some other lucky f**ker or f**kers also were on a good run for that short haul.
It seems like to an extent fool's gold to me -- within a perhaps Quixotic overall venture in the first place -- to put down real money, at a $1,000 a pop, if your primary motivating factor is "I have so many chances to win because of these in-season mini-contests."
So, to me, while I understand the general public marketing allure, I'm very much disappointed when I see the SuperContest top prize get whittled -- by these in-season prizes in conjunction with other factors -- down to $197,200.
Personally, I'm playing (against the long odds) for life-changing money. There was a point where I think the total between the SuperContest, the Circa Millions, and the SuperContest Gold where you could pull in something like $3.4 million if you repeated Jarhead's feat from a while back and hit a trifecta of three major Las Vegas handicapping contests.
That opportunity evaporated into a plethora of much-harder-to-hit with far-less-return in-season contests -- with the only saving grace being the Circa Millions $1,000,000 top prize guarantee and the SuperContest Gold high-roller winner-take-all format ($400,000 last year, against a much smaller field than the large contests). (Absolutely love the Gold, "put your big boy/gal pants on and play big or go home.")
Again, this is me personally, but I'm not playing to crow on social media about an in-truth insignificant monetary win or to get my entry fees back.
I want a shot at BIG money. Just like the Parcells saying about "lifting all those weights," that's why I put all the work in, both in-season and during the offseason.
Look, I'm not one of these people that wants to tear down the contests, either a specific contest or the contests generally. I want to see multiple robust contests offering lots of money, so I'd rather build up than tear down.
But I'm disappointed in how things have evolved post-2019 in particular reference to the top prize money available, across the options currently available.
Maybe the extra max entries will reverse the trend. We'll see.
* * * * *
I believe that there may be a strategy for the SuperContest to return to big top prize money -- and more effectively compete with Circa -- within the current prize structure with all the in-season prizes.
It's either DraftKings and/or FanDuel that runs a multi-state handicapping contest (as distinguished from fantasy). That is, without having to rely on proxies, they run their handicapping contest in every state in which they are licensed to operate. So they potentially can generate a large, multi-state pool without people having to fly across the country to enter and then use a proxy in season. It appears to me that the contestants just enter in the state in which they reside and then participate in the multi-state pool created by the contest.
The SuperBook is licensed now in I believe 8 jurisdictions. If they similarly went multi-state with the SuperContest in those jurisdictions, they perhaps might markedly increase the overall prize pool and compete with Circa in a manner in which Circa cannot currently compete. (I believe Circa is only in Nevada at the moment, but is about to expand also to Illinois.)
Now, maybe DraftKings and/or FanDuel is just oblivious to potential issues with crossing state lines under the Wire Act, 18 USC 1084.
Or maybe not.
This is the text of the first two paragraphs of section 1084, with bold emphasis added:
(a) Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
(b) Nothing in this section shall be construed to prevent the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of information for use in news reporting of sporting events or contests, or for the transmission of information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on a sporting event or contest from a State or foreign country where betting on that sporting event or contest is legal into a State or foreign country in which such betting is legal.
I haven't researched this more deeply, and I'm not offering legal advice (in Nevada as an instead Louisiana lawyer), but it just seems like the text of the statute, on its face, provides an argument for being able to cross state lines between multiple jurisdictions ("from" one state "into" another) where sports betting is legal in those multiple jurisdictions.
If I were in sportsbook management, I most certainly would be asking counsel about the issue. Maybe the SuperBook has done so, and the answer was that the regulatory risk outweighed the potential benefit.
But I hope that the SuperBook -- and these guys are way sharp and are responsible for many innovations in the market -- at least have asked the question.
Because it's a fair bet that Derek Stevens with Circa will be asking his lawyers about that possibility as Circa expands to a multistate book.
* * * * *
One way or another, however, my "vote" is for these contests to shift the focus a bit more back to big top prize money. The in-season mini-contest prizes no doubt will remain a fixture going forward. But, e.g., in the case of Circa, how excess pool money (i.e., after any overlay is eliminated) is applied can make considerable difference regarding the size of the top prize.
