Circa ups the stakes: a guaranteed $14 million for football contests

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Will hill still not taking entries for their college fb pick contest yet. No word when this happens but I feel the longer it goes they will just cancel this

$500k guarantee would be a huge overlay
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa entries (w/# for no overlay) as of 5pm, August 18: Million V: 2,016 (6k), Survivor: 3,545 (8k).

My updated estimate for final tally: Million V: 6,100, Survivor: 9,200.
 
Last edited:

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Sports, have you heard an updated headcount for WG Gold since your last update with 20 players?

With WH looking more like The EOG Sports Hour, I'm looking for another contest for those funds.
 
Re: queries to people at sundry WH-related betting counters, it's been a peeve (of many) of mine over the years as to how often customer-facing people were ignorant, wrong and/or disinterested about their book's contest offerings. (The SuperBook, and now Circa, are the exceptions to that rule.)

You'd think that at a staff meeting for each shift they would tell all their staff that "hey, we've got this contest promotion going, here's a handout with all the details, please help talk up our contest so that we can get a good following and have a good promotion."

I mean, you'd think.

If you're not going to do something functionally substantially similar to that, why bother?

A promotion isn't very worthwhile if you're not going to promote the promotion.

But sportsbook after sportsbook over the years ostensibly has had a contest promotion but then as a practical matter treated it like a state secret in terms of providing info to people inquiring at the counter, whether from ticket writers or supervisory personnel.

One of those boggles the mind things.

* * *

In that same vein, Dave similarly was expressing frustration with WH's (mis)handling of the contest in a posting on his website across the street.

He finished with the remark that WH has "killed the only college-only contest in town."

Something about that turn of phrase made me think of Roy Orbison's "Only the Lonely."

Couldn't get the link to work here late tonight, but plug this string into your YouTube search window:

Roy Orbison - Only the Lonely (Black & White Night 30)

 
Last edited:

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Sports, have you heard an updated headcount for WG Gold since your last update with 20 players?

With WH looking more like The EOG Sports Hour, I'm looking for another contest for those funds.
I signed up this weekend but I didn't bother to ask as there was a line of people to sign up.

I will stop by today, Monday, as things should be quieter and get updated numbers for both contests.

Maybe even a number on their season wins nfl contest.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Well the golden nugget has the only college football contest now if will hill doesn't run one

I like that its eight picks for 18 weeks

What sucks is payout places 11-20 get $1000. Wtf payout structure is that?

Plus it isn't easy to get to the golden nugget to enter picks.

I am unsure if they allow mobile app entering. If anyone knows please post
 
Last edited:
Well the golden nugget has the only college football contest now if will hill doesn't run one

I like that its eight picks for 18 weeks

What sucks is payout places 11-20 get $1000. Wtf payout structure is that?

Plus it isn't easy to get to the golden nugget to enter picks.

I am unsure if they allow mobile app entering. If anyone knows please post

I thought that was 7 picks per week:

"For the eighteen weeks of the contest, each contestant makes seven selections against the spread, from all NFL sides and NCAA
Division I FBS college sides - excluding first-half lines - posted on Golden Nugget contest sheets at 2PM on Wednesdays."

* * *

If you click on "Ultimate Football Challenge Rules" on this webpage, it should open a .pdf for you with the rules:


* * *

I didn't see anything about putting in picks with a mobile app, which definitely would make it easier to do that contest.

But GN is not the most tech-embracing of the LV football contests.

But, hey, they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering.

* * *

For example, GN is hit or miss on reliably getting the contestants' selections posted online before the main CFB post time on Saturday morning. Worse so on major holidays, where apparently the only person usually responsible for doing that posting is off for Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc.

But, again, "they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering."

* * *

And that 11-20 place 1K prize structure is goofy to me as well.

"But, again, they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering."

Like in football, there is a value to showing up on game day, even if it's not the biggest, best and/or most tech-savvy contest.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Good correction the 7 picks
8 is will hill

Again they are actually having a contest.

Well this is a hidden gem. When draftkings officially takes over the golden nugget book this cfb contest will get supercontest numbers as they will have cross state members too as they are doing that with their contests this year.

Monster prize pool but expect 11th through 20th to still receive $1000

Just saying
 
Be interesting to see how it shakes out once DFK is running things -- they still have to get gaming approval in each jurisdiction for a multi-state contest as so configured.

Someone pointed out to me that the current DFK multi-state NFL contest is not running in I think it was DFK-jurisdiction Ohio, which could have been due to Ohio gaming not approving the contest.

So, Nevada gaming would have to sign off on the multi-state CFB contest for it be offered in NV.

Dave pointed out earlier in the thread that NV gaming already had balked at crossing state lines. I haven't researched the point fully on the fly, but what I had seen was that back in 2018 or so, the NV books tried to get NV gaming to sign off on bets being placed across state lines after the Supreme Court ruling overturning PASPA. (There were only a handful of states so far -- post-PASPA-overturn -- with legal sportsbetting at that earlier point in time, and I think the NV books were trying a Hail Mary to secure/preserve market share.) An issue as to whether bets can't be placed across state lines, including from states where sportsbetting still is not legal, is not necessarily the same thing as an issue as to whether books can run a multi-state contest pool in jurisdictions where sportsbetting is legal in every jurisdiction. Not sure what the answer is, or what NV gaming would find the answer to be, but it's not necessarily the same question.

In any event, I would like to see someone try to persuade NV gaming on the multi-state contest pool issue, and if DFK is coming into the market in one fashion or another, maybe the issue will be brought to a head.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I can bet in Ohio with my DK account. However, their season-long, post-up, contests are not permitted in Ohio.

Fortunately, Michigan is a few minutes from my house. Thus, a workable hurdle.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Westgate 556
No answer on gold. Ok the clerk told me about 300 entries for the Gold but I told him he was wrong.

He didn't want to ask the manager again.

Hey westgate
Just post the numbers on one of your digital boards. I think your clerks are sick of asking for a number everyday
 
Thanks, Sports . . . lol, yeah, 300 on the Gold would be awesome -- $1.5 million winner-take-all. Oh, yeah, talk about big boy/big girl (or big whatever these days) stakes on the line.

But, unfortunately, you're right -- it's almost certainly closer to 30 than 300 at this point. And unlikely to get anywhere near 300, unless high rollers in the big Circa contestant pool are selectively doubling up this year with the high-roller Gold rather than the SuperContest Classic.

* * *

And, yeah, they should post the numbers -- which I'm sure they would be doing if Circa hadn't put them back on their heels with entry numbers.
 
Occasionally, I run a "SuperContest" search on Twitter.

The one I just did pulled up this recent tweet:

Half Price Proxy@halfpriceproxy1 4h
Replying to @DGFL9 @CircaSports and @legends_bay

The #SuperContest Gold currently has 35 entries.

* * *

That's of course more likely, although I have no take otherwise on the reliability of that particular individual on Twitter (as I don't recognize the handle on the fly).
 
Last edited:

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Circa entries (w/# for no overlay) as of 7am, August 26: Million V: 2,728 (6k), Survivor: 4,745 (8k). Survivor overlay is now less than Million V (>2k more entrants, $3.255M vs $3.272M)
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Circa entries (w/# for no overlay) as of 7am, August 26: Million V: 2,728 (6k), Survivor: 4,745 (8k). Survivor overlay is now less than Million V (>2k more entrants, $3.255M vs $3.272M)

Millions will have an Overlay..........Survivor will not
 
Data point yesterday and comment today from Dave Tuley on the SuperContest contests:

Dave Tuley@ViewFromVegas
22h

I was just logging in to update those contests @SuperBookNV:

#SuperContest was at 716 after I signed up a few proxy clients this morning, and other proxies were still signing up more;
#SuperContestGold ($5,000 entry fee, winner-take-all pool) was at 43

* * * *

Dave Tuley@ViewFromVegas
1h

They're hoping to exceed last year's 1,598 #SuperContest entries @SuperBookNV and it looks like they're on pace, especially with plenty of out-of-state contest players coming in over Labor Day Weekend, and the usual late rush of locals in the final week

* * * *

Perspective by me (Squarepants, not Dave): Definitely would be nice to at least not go below last year's entry total. But, as discussed previously in this thread, that total still produced a top prize of $197,200, way below a few years back, for the reasons discussed earlier.

Seems to me that -- in 2024 -- to gain back market share, the SuperBook is going to have to either: (a) go to a multi-state contest pool if they can persuade regulators in the respective states of its legality; and/or (b) come out with a top prize guarantee (with the prospect then of a possible overlay).

Otherwise, I don't see how they recapture some of the momentum taken by Circa in the competition between the books over these contests. Circa just flat blew by them like Randy Moss in his prime, and smaller tit-for-tat rules changes each year just will not get it done at this point.
 
Last edited:

Durbify

EOG Member
Data point yesterday and comment today from Dave Tuley on the SuperContest contests:

Dave Tuley@ViewFromVegas
22h

I was just logging in to update those contests @SuperBookNV:

#SuperContest was at 716 after I signed up a few proxy clients this morning, and other proxies were still signing up more;
#SuperContestGold ($5,000 entry fee, winner-take-all pool) was at 43

* * * *

Dave Tuley@ViewFromVegas
1h

They're hoping to exceed last year's 1,598 #SuperContest entries @SuperBookNV and it looks like they're on pace, especially with plenty of out-of-state contest players coming in over Labor Day Weekend, and the usual late rush of locals in the final week

* * * *

Perspective by me (Squarepants, not Dave): Definitely would be nice to at least not go below last year's entry total. But, as discussed previously in this thread, that total still produced a top prize of $197,200, way below a few years back, for the reasons discussed earlier.

Seems to me that -- in 2024 -- to gain back market share, the SuperBook is going to have to either: (a) go to a multi-state contest pool if they can persuade regulators in the respective states of its legality; and/or (b) come out with a top prize guarantee (with the prospect then of a possible overlay).

Otherwise, I don't see how they recapture some of the momentum taken by Circa in the competition between the books over these contests. Circa just flat blew by them like Randy Moss in his prime, and smaller tit-for-tat rules changes each year just will not get it done at this point.
I signed up yesterday and Westgate is in sad state right now. I hope they can figure out how to get some momentum. Not even sure they could offer high enough guarantee to get more players. The rake was their death.
 
Last edited:

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
WG needs to focus making the event more like actual handicapping and paying fewer people larger prizes.

My -3/+2.5, -7.5/+7 format would make it more interesting and challenging.

Not using the Thursday games and posting lines Friday, while keeping a Saturday deadline. With the shorter window, they could really get creative and use totals. Use O 47, U 46.5 format. Offering totals with a Wednesday - Saturday window would make the contest even less about handicapping.

Limit or eliminate the mini contests and if they decide to keep them, only pay first place. Since many players enjoy the mini contests, a reasonable compromise to maintain interest throughout much of the season, would be to offer two six-week mini contests at 6 and 12 (Thanksgiving Week). This would add 630k to the overall season prize pool.

They're on the right path only paying the top 20 overall. Where they're still greatly missing the mark is continuing with too many mini contests. Also, they have guaranteed money for too many mini contests, without any guaranteed money for the overall season winners.

Rail began last season 14-1, but I believe he entered Circa and not WG. Before the Circa mini-contest ended, he already began his epic slide that most of us here enjoyed witnessing.

Kornegay and his team should be ashamed of themselves for offering this mess.


  • The SuperContest will payout three six-week contests, six three-week contests and two nine-week contests, for the 18-week pro football regular season schedule. The three-week contests will have aggregate payouts of $25,000, $10,000 and $5,000 for the first three places. The six-week contests will have aggregate payouts of $50,000, $25,000, $10,000, and $5,000 for the first four places. The nine-week contests will have aggregate payouts of $75,000, $40,000, $20,000, $10,000 and $5,000 for the first five places.
  • The “in-season” contest prizes are guaranteed (a total of $810,000). The remaining entry fees will go to the season-long prize pool, with the top 20 places paid.
 

railbird

EOG Master
I thought that was 7 picks per week:

"For the eighteen weeks of the contest, each contestant makes seven selections against the spread, from all NFL sides and NCAA
Division I FBS college sides - excluding first-half lines - posted on Golden Nugget contest sheets at 2PM on Wednesdays."

* * *

If you click on "Ultimate Football Challenge Rules" on this webpage, it should open a .pdf for you with the rules:


* * *

I didn't see anything about putting in picks with a mobile app, which definitely would make it easier to do that contest.

But GN is not the most tech-embracing of the LV football contests.

But, hey, they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering.

* * *

For example, GN is hit or miss on reliably getting the contestants' selections posted online before the main CFB post time on Saturday morning. Worse so on major holidays, where apparently the only person usually responsible for doing that posting is off for Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc.

But, again, "they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering."

* * *

And that 11-20 place 1K prize structure is goofy to me as well.

"But, again, they're not WH and they actually are following through with and promoting their contest offering."

Like in football, there is a value to showing up on game day, even if it's not the biggest, best and/or most tech-savvy contest.
stevens needs to step up and do a college contest
 
stevens needs to step up and do a college contest

Yep, at this point, Circa probably is best positioned -- by, inter alia, a big pool of contestants from which to draw entrants who might do both NFL and CFB, momentum, marketing, innovativeness, and just sheer willingness to do something new and interesting and then the drive to then do something actually effective with an idea -- to add a CFB contest to their offerings.

Parallel (to the NFL contest offerings) CFB Millions and Survivor contests would be interesting.

If DraftKings is coming into the market at the Golden Nugget, which currently runs apparently the only contest in town that includes CFB selections, then 2024 might be a good time for Stevens to preemptively capture market share in the CFB contest space.
 
Another data point from a couple of days back, with no implied vouching for accuracy (and not sure or necessarily interested as to what the percentages represent):

Half Price Proxy@halfpriceproxy1
Aug 28
Replying to @BrettDriver3

Here’s the latest entry totals with 12-days to go:

#CircaMillions - 2,896 - ⬆️ 35%
#CircaSurvivor - 5,058 - ⬆️ 73%
#SuperContest - 722 - ⬇️ 14%

Note that yesterday's SuperBookNV tweet had a more recent number for the SuperContest at 758.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
I like the mini-contests in the supercontest and circa millions. Gives more people the hope of "I just have to run hot for 3-4 weeks" to get some money.

I do like the three prizes for these mini-contests.

The day is getting closer and closer where interstate contests will be a thing. Circa will be second best as the draftkings contests (and their many different contest entry amounts) will bring in some huge prize pools.

I feel sad that the college football contest is slowly losing steam. Seems like a perfect time for someone to step in and get a hold of this niche and run with it.

Woodrow Wilson has an amazing idea for the NFL lines.

I love the idea of -3/+2.5 style of lines. This would add a nice extra element to the contest.

I can't wait to see this.

Oh course the absolute best contest would use live lines where people put in their plays against lines that move with the bets. Would make proxy life miserable but if this ever goes online where people don't need proxies it could be a possibility.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Sports, the crux, particularly with the WG contest, is that the mini-contests are possibly going to involve more than half of the overall prize pool.

WG could accomplish maintaining interest with a couple mini-contests, not 10+. The vibe feels more like an afternoon game show. If a player is dead money after mid-season and yes, I've been there more often than I'd like to admit, oh well.

The mini-contests are similar to swarming locusts, they are now killing the host, which used to be a full-season handicapping contest.

I'll of course, be happy winning any mini-contest money.

However, I firmly fall into the camp with contest winners receiving "life-changing-money" prizes.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Sports, I've spoken to the guys at Circa about it. Derek is approachable, but he's too big league to remember anything we're going to discuss about contests. Mike Palm has a bit too much ego to speak with hoi polloi, despite being a dork himself. However, Jeff Nelson at Circa does listen, but says it's a software issue and the costs to implement it are prohibitive. I believe my input was involved with them adding the Christmas / Saturday week to the Survivor contest to thin the herd.

Personally, I think offering a contest with staggered lines is something WG should do to create some separation. It would be unique...something obviously missing from most sportsbooks. It certainly would produce a more genuine handicapping element that's lacking with contests using stale lines.

The talk shows would have a lot to discuss, which means Derek, VSIN, and Jay would be happy, for there would be pushes every week. How many times have we seen contests line at -3 and the screen is painted -3 -20. Of course the entire field is lining up to lay 3. If they instead were dealing -3.5 / +3 then there's more of a decision to make, and thus more actual handicapping is involved. It's also why wins should be +1, pushes 0, and losses -1.

I mentioned offering totals with a staggered line. Since they have more movement, offer a full point, i.e., O 47.5 / U 46.5. There would be weeks with both sides losing. LOL

VISN would explode with chatter.

Of course, the book that should have offered this sort of thing is CRIS/Bookmaker.eu and yes, I've spoken to some high-level brass there about this, but it fell on deaf ears. That was several years ago, about the time Circa entered the contest market. That same person at BM hopefully has witnessed the growth at Circa, so obviously he was incorrect. BM has access to a much larger market than all the Vegas books combined. To date, they've blown an excellent opportunity. They'd only need to offer it to their U.S. sheet players and overseas players to surpass Circa's numbers imho.

Arturo, if you're reading this, maybe you can talk to a few people you know.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Another data point from a couple of days back, with no implied vouching for accuracy (and not sure or necessarily interested as to what the percentages represent):

Half Price Proxy@halfpriceproxy1
Aug 28
Replying to @BrettDriver3

Here’s the latest entry totals with 12-days to go:

#CircaMillions - 2,896 - ⬆️ 35%
#CircaSurvivor - 5,058 - ⬆️ 73%
#SuperContest - 722 - ⬇️ 14%

Note that yesterday's SuperBookNV tweet had a more recent number for the SuperContest at 758.

These are the percentage increases from last year, except they overestimate the year-to-year comparison. The deadline this year is Sat, Sept 9 while last year it was Sat, Sept 10. So, the Aug 31 totals need to be compared to Sept 1 of last year, etc.

Doing this, currently:

#CircaMillions - 3,306 - ⬆️ 22.2%
#CircaSurvivor - 5,819 - ⬆️ 59.4%
 
Last edited:

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Sports, I've spoken to the guys at Circa about it. Derek is approachable, but he's too big league to remember anything we're going to discuss about contests. Mike Palm has a bit too much ego to speak with hoi polloi, despite being a dork himself. However, Jeff Nelson at Circa does listen, but says it's a software issue and the costs to implement it are prohibitive. I believe my input was involved with them adding the Christmas / Saturday week to the Survivor contest to thin the herd.

Personally, I think offering a contest with staggered lines is something WG should do to create some separation. It would be unique...something obviously missing from most sportsbooks. It certainly would produce a more genuine handicapping element that's lacking with contests using stale lines.

In the software industry, this desire is known as "creeping elegance". Obviously changing the pay tables is straightforward, but changing to split lines IMO would be ridiculously expensive. I remember a Circa Million twitter complaint last year that one should be allowed to enter a pick on the Thursday game and later put in the other picks. Great suggestion, but it would probably require a very significant amount of recoding. My guess is that there is very small chance that these changes will be made any time soon.

I talked to Derek and Mike when they came to Reno several weeks ago for the Contest promotion at the Legends Bay Casino. I encouraged them to improve their teaser prices to at least industry standard and put more resources on in-progress betting. This could certainly improve the sports handle at Circa.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
JK, add "creeping elegance" to the EOG dictionary.

Thanks Bob. It appears that Jeff was straight-forward with his reply about the costs.
 

Durbify

EOG Member
Couple of the discussed Millions changes this weekend while I was with Derek.
Putting hooks on all contest lines and allowing entrants to use multiple aliases. Obviously hook would eliminate pushes as well as open field. As mentioned above, make contestants handicap the number. Can confirm software would need complete Overhaul to allow use of only Thurs entries.
seems to be problem with Alias use as well. Derek/Jeff/Matt have been open ears to any contest thoughts. Implementation is another story. 6000+entrants later 😂 they don’t need to open ears too wide.
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
Personally I'd prefer they maintain the current format than change to using only half point lines.

WG offers multiple aliases.

Also, not using the bingo square games. FE, when a game is off the board (typically due to an uncertain qb status) when contest lines are posted, then simply leave it off the sheet.
 
Re: half-point lines, I'm with you WW on that. At times using only half-point lines introduces markedly non-market lines, as when, e.g., the market line is a solid, unwavering 3 and they then still have to force a 2.5 or 3.5 onto that situation.

I don't see getting rid of pushes as an advantage in the first place (for anyone other than maybe the book running the contest in simplifying the software). But whatever the perceived advantage is to whoever, it's certainly not enough of an advantage that, to me, warrants creating that kind of situation of forced non-market lines at the time the contest lines are posted. I'm entirely fine with the current SuperBook approach of awarding a half contest point for pushes and not distorting the contest card with forced half-point lines.

* * * * *

Re: ThNF, I can't remember the last time -- if ever -- I used that game on a contest card. I guess in theory there might be just so much line value on that one game that it warranted pulling the trigger on also the other 4 contest picks on Thursday with less information at hand. But that theory in the abstract has not prompted me to pull the trigger on Thursday recently, if ever.

(And that line value can represent an overreaction by the market, which I guess one could "short" by going the other way. There was a game a few years back where, IIRC, Luck was down and backup QB Hasselbeck had been battling the flu -- I guess this was pre-Covid or else both then would have been out. I forget the particulars of the line movement, but the market -- with only the one NFL game on the board way, way, way overreacted to the prospect of an experienced former-starter backup QB not playing well enough to cover after having missed practice reps due to a flu bug. And any suggestion that Hasselbeck wouldn't play at all wasn't really based on reliably credible information heading into the game. But I still didn't use that game on my contest card. It's just one game.)

So that personal preference affects how I look at what they do with ThNF games on a contest card.

It thus wouldn't bother me -- personally -- if they eliminated the Thursday game entirely on the contest cards. Don't really care either way.

And (like Bob on this point) I really don't think they'll ever complicate their software by setting it up so that contestants pick the Thursday game as an early standalone pick. It's just a promotion for the book, and I just don't see the interest for them in spending money on software recoding for some of these nuances, like this one. But I don't care all that much either way -- probably still wouldn't use ThNF much if ever -- but I just don't think that it's likely that they'll do that in the first place.

My principal concern with ThNF is transparency, as contestants' ThNF picks are not posted online until after all the picks go in on Saturday. Theoretically, that could allow rogue middle level employees to help a favored player/contestant by past-posting a correct ThNF pick. However, as a practical matter, revealing the ThNF individual plays pre-post on Thursday night also would add a level of administrative complexity to the software and running the contest generally. So although past-posting however many ThNF games for a contestant conceivably could help a player over the top to win the contest, I just never have figured that that transparency issue was an issue worth making a full-court press on.

But that transparency issue is part of the reason why I wouldn't mourn ThNF being dropped off the contest cards.

And if they do take on the administrative complexity, etc. of standalone ThNF picks, then I would want those individual picks posted pre-ThNF post. May as well address the one issue (transparency) if one is going to address the other (standalone pick).
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
I've often wondered why Gaming hasn't gotten involved with the lack of transparency regarding Thursday selections.

I'm not sure that they want to omit Thanksgiving games, but I'd prefer the other Thursday games being omitted from the contest.

It would make more sense to post the lines mid-day Friday.
 
Top