Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Doesn't mean squat....tons of closing line tickets are in the South Point dumpster...Irish Tim and WVU cannot convince me otherwise...just because you get a better number doesn't mean you are a winner....can someone tell me the record for closing numbers in the NCAA Baskets Tourney?:shoot:
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Short term I agree, VD.

Long term, I strongly disagree.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

throw out the 1st 3 weeks of any season and its 47%
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

GL on NC State tonight, Dino. It was great meeting you and I'm really looking forward to our golf outing this summer.:cheers
 
H

Herbie

EOG Addicted
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Give me a point on the closing number in say a sport like the NBA and I will let you pick my side... :cheers
 
C

Cee

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

It matters much more if you are doing a lot of plays. But only do 2 plays a night it's much less of a factor
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

munson15 said:
GL on NC State tonight, Dino. It was great meeting you and I'm really looking forward to our golf outing this summer.:cheers
Click to expand...

I took 8 early in the week...now it is 8.5.....like a sucker, I went back for more....
 
H

Herbie

EOG Addicted
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Cee said:
It matters much more if you are doing a lot of plays. But only do 2 plays a night it's much less of a factor
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The amount it matters on each game is the same (ignoring things like the varying value of a half point at different lines or impact of a total on a spread) regardless if you bet every game or 2... The variance of a couple games just masks it on a small sample...
 
S

steak tartar

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

i hope youre being facetious VD.....of course it matters....in the long run its the only thing that matters
 
smartymarty

smartymarty

EOG Veteran
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Hmm. BW is a lifetime winner. his beards never have paid an office where i have worked. yet, he always beats the closing number. what a coincidence????
 
N

newport2

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

smartymarty said:
Hmm. BW is a lifetime winner. His beards never have paid an office where I have worked. Yet, he always beats the closing number. What a coincidence????
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There is a big difference between being a beard or merely a follower.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

I agree with VD. Here is the issue with "beating the closing number".

When YOU are the person moving the number aka BW or Edward from RAS then it actually shouldn't matter what they play as the books are going to move the line in their favor 100% of the time.

If you do get the respect of a book that will move numbers based on your bet then in the reason for "beating the number means you are a winner" you will be a winner regardless of what you play right?

What if BW bets some early lines to get what he really wants. Say he bets on a favorite early which moves the line up 2.5 points only to come back 30 minutes before tip off to hammer on the dog at the line he wanted. Let's say you bet the favorite at that early number....it moves 2.5 points in your favor are you really considered a long term winner when the whole time BW/Sharps wanted the dog at better numbers?

My opinion is that I don't believe that you are a winner.
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

BTCL bollocks only matters to wankers who cannot win at sports betting so jump on the theory train that holds a lot more listening passengers. Whether you beat the closing line is a hindsight nonsense, if it wasnt we would all be beating it and coining it in.

As far as I'm concerned its more about getting the best odds available at the time you put the bet on, no more.:cheers
 
WINBET

WINBET

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

I beat the closing line on nearly every soccer bet, not that hard if you have the accounts and the time, yet over time I dont see soccer as a bigger earner. Americans are obsessed with anything to do with line movement mainly due to the bollocks advertised by touts to make a simple 2 way decision into quantum physics, wankers :cheers
 
Doughy

Doughy

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

In pure theory, with a million bets placed in a vacuum, yes beating the closing line statistically works. Too bad none of us bet in a vacuum. Instead, I see the Ohio State/Cincy total go open at 130, close at 128' and the game soars over. Then, to make things more fun, the halftime total opens at 68 or 68' at most shops and closes lower only to soar over. Throw in the 3 point move on the UF/Marquette Over which got crushed and the money pouring in on Marquette from -1' to -2 and BTCL didn't mean shit (the halftime line on UF went from 78 to 79 and...guess what...it went way under, too!). The Syracuse line also closed about a point and a half lower than the opener and it went over. The only game out of 4 yesterday that it really mattered was the Michigan State/L'Ville total.

I'm so fed up with a pile full of tickets beating the closer I'm about to bring them up to the counter and argue I at least deserve a push.
 
RealSlimShady

RealSlimShady

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

smartymarty said:
Hmm. BW is a lifetime winner. his beards never have paid an office where i have worked. yet, he always beats the closing number. what a coincidence????
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What I'd like to see is if you took BW's picks and went the opposite way, but adjust the line by the average amount he beats closers by....what would the record be? If closers are efficient, going the opposite way should not matter if you beat the number by the same amount, correct?
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

If i bet 200 dimes on Indiana +9.5 where does line go..?

I know, market is efficient....
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

RealSlimShady said:
What I'd like to see is if you took BW's picks and went the opposite way, but adjust the line by the average amount he beats closers by....what would the record be? If closers are efficient, going the opposite way should not matter if you beat the number by the same amount, correct?
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What if BW was only a nickel player..?
 
Tuckman

Tuckman

Uh Poster
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Beating the number is great, but there has to be some point where it becomes more profitable..Based on say 1000 plays, is beating the closer by .5 points or lower really gonna help out that much? Obviously the higher you beat the number the better results you will see.

Try tracking yourself in a spreadsheet over the next 1000 plays, post your line, closing line, the amount you beat the closing line by rather it be negative or positive and find where you stand.

I would say for it to become signifcant you will have to beat the closer by more than point at the least if not more for a noticable difference

(ignore any spelling, posting from phone)
 
RealSlimShady

RealSlimShady

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Ray Luca said:
If i bet 200 dimes on Indiana +9.5 where does line go..?

I know, market is efficient....
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I've always wondered myself. I mean if Bill Gates gave me a billion to bet, I have to be pushing lines like BW....at least to start :btj:
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Tuckman said:
Beating the number is great, but there has to be some point where it becomes more profitable..Based on say 1000 plays, is beating the closer by .5 points or lower really gonna help out that much? Obviously the higher you beat the number the better results you will see.

Try tracking yourself in a spreadsheet over the next 1000 plays, post your line, closing line, the amount you beat the closing line by rather it be negative or positive and find where you stand.

I would say for it to become signifcant you will have to beat the closer by more than point at the least if not more for a noticable difference

(ignore any spelling, posting from phone)
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I now ignore your posts whether you post from a phone or at home.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Beating the closing number doesn't make you an "automatic" winner but I don't like your chances if the market disagrees with you consistently.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

I like when people say the lines and market are too good, can't beat em. That game and total went down to the final foul shot with 2 seconds left etc... But what about all the games they made a terrible line..?
 
F

fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

There might have been a few dead tickets in The Southpoint dumpster....but there were a shit load more of empty bud b ottles in there complements of yours truly..:cheers
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

The reality of beating the closing line is this.....

No matter who you are ....

Betting Kentucky tonight and getting them at -8 will beat the closer by at least 2 to 2 1/2 points as it is now -10.

Your bet just didn't become better because the line moved 2 points. The odds that you win your bet NEVER changed! How could they?

:+clueless

You got a good number. You made a good bet IF it wins.

You obviously have a better chance of winning then the "entertainment bettor" that bets the game at -10, but YOUR bet has no greater chance of winning when you bet it at -8 then it does when the game begins.

That can't change
 
S

sean1

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Anybody want to book me 1/2 a point better than the closer in the NFL or a point better in any other sport?

This is a ridiculous argument.
 
S

steak tartar

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

sean1 said:
Anybody want to book me 1/2 a point better than the closer in the NFL or a point better in any other sport?

This is a ridiculous argument.
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of course it is.........eog has this thread weekly though.........lol
 
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