Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

ajaysdreamplays

ajaysdreamplays

EOG Addicted
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Agree with VD. But not for the conventional reasoning. I have never, ever worried about a closing line - whether I got it, whether I'd have won had I had it, even what it was.

But then again, my bets aren't based on what yours are based on (statistics & feel).

I do keep records. Lots of records. MLB going back to mid-90s for every bet and every game of every season. Other sports over a lesser timeframe. Have no idea what the closing lines were, though. I just use the line I got if I bet it, or if I didn't bet it I record the line I checked at the time I was prepared to bet it. Even those lines aren't consistently the "best available" line.

And I'll put my record up against anyone's... in all sports excepting CBB (I never did hockey, soccer, tennis, horse racing, NASCAR, or ladies' sports).
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

"Beating the closing line" is just more gambling lore to grasp onto.

Beat the closing line two days in a row and every poster out there thinks he has entered The Kingdom Of Sharps.

Books do not pay for beating the closing line.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Jeff Jones said:
"Beating the closing line" is just more gambling lore to grasp onto.

Beat the closing line two days in a row and every poster out there thinks he has entered The Kingdom Of Sharps.

Books do not pay for beating the closing line.
Click to expand...

Jeff, do you claim to be a winning sports gambler?

:+clueless
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Jeff Jones said:
Absolutely not. And that's why I have the upper hand here.
Click to expand...

Any reason you are so quick to shoot down what you don't understand w/r/t to gambling?

If you really think that beating the closing line isn't the MOST important distinguishing factor between winners and losers, you should take up a new hobby.


:cheers
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

joeybagadonuts said:
Any reason you are so quick to shoot down what you don't understand w/r/t to gambling?

If you really think that beating the closing line isn't the MOST important distinguishing factor between winners and losers, you should take up a new hobby.

:cheers
Click to expand...

My advice would be that 98% of the posters here should take up a new hobby. (Not you, of course.)
 
LQQKer

LQQKer

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Actually, this whole argument is pretty moot. If you are winning, you will be beating the closing line....since if you do it with big money, over time, the line will follow you.

Yeah, you heard it here first, folks.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

LQQKer said:
Actually, this whole argument is pretty moot. If you are winning, you will be beating the closing line....since if you do it with big money, over time, the line will follow you.

Yeah, you heard it here first, folks.
Click to expand...

What if you're aren't doing it for big money?

:+clueless
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

LQQKer said:
Actually, this whole argument is pretty moot. If you are winning, you will be beating the closing line....since if you do it with big money, over time, the line will follow you.

Yeah, you heard it here first, folks.
Click to expand...

"Big money, over time, the line will follow you?"

What does that even mean? The line will follow me? LOL. Big money? LOL.

It's pure Internet poster drivel.
 
LQQKer

LQQKer

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Jeff Jones said:
"Big money, over time, the line will follow you?"

What does that even mean? The line will follow me? LOL. Big money? LOL.

It's pure Internet poster drivel.
Click to expand...

Been there, done it...

...you really need to get a clue, JJ.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

So, Jeff, do you know any sports bettors in real life who have won long term and continue to do so?

:+clueless
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

joeybagadonuts said:
So, Jeff, do you know any sports bettors in real life who have won long term and continue to do so?

:+clueless
Click to expand...

Yes, and they sure aren't posting on websites. I realize that a sports gambling site relies on the narrow success of picking sporting events. This is what most of you revere here. But there is no some sort of Kreskin clan that has the answer to games nightly. That is why we have touts.

The smartest guys can suck for days betting against the Gila Monsters. The difference is that they know other forms of advantage play gambling that you don't that will make up for it..
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Jeff Jones said:
Yes, and they sure aren't posting on websites. I realize that a sports gambling site relies on the narrow success of picking sporting events. This is what most of you revere here. But there is no some sort of Kreskin clan that has the answer to games nightly. That is why we have touts.

The smartest guys can suck for days betting against the Gila Monsters. The difference is that they know other forms of advantage play gambling that you don't that will make up for it..
Click to expand...

Advantage play in gambling meaning in sports betting or elsewhere?

You really are a lost cause. An old dog that just doesn;t want to believe that people can win at 'your' game in ways you will never even understand.

Keep telling yourself that its all myth, you have a better chance of keeping what little sanity you have left.

:cheers
 
Doughy

Doughy

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

LQQKer said:
Actually, this whole argument is pretty moot. If you are winning, you will be beating the closing line....since if you do it with big money, over time, the line will follow you.

Yeah, you heard it here first, folks.
Click to expand...
I have been betting NCAA totals openers for between $330 (what I've been limited to at the Stratosphere) and $1100 (max bet I was allowed at South Point except sometimes for a nickel) at every casino that offers overnight lines the past 2 weeks and I am not kidding that my bets moved the line 80-90% of the time...you know...after a manager studies his Don Best screen for two minutes and then scrutinizes me up and down like I'm trying to board a flight with an AK-47. That's not big money and I'm not using a player's card except at Caesar's where I'm forced to. Try getting down more than a dime at any Vegas casino on overnight lines. Good luck, it ain't happening. But hey...I'm BTCL and that's what counts :houra
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Doughboy said:
I have been betting NCAA totals openers for between $330 (what I've been limited to at the Stratosphere) and $1100 (max bet I was allowed at South Point except sometimes for a nickel) at every casino that offers overnight lines the past 2 weeks and I am not kidding that my bets moved the line 80-90% of the time...you know...after a manager studies his Don Best screen for two minutes and then scrutinizes me up and down like I'm trying to board a flight with an AK-47. That's not big money and I'm not using a player's card except at Caesar's where I'm forced to. Try getting down more than a dime at any Vegas casino on overnight lines. Good luck, it ain't happening. But hey...I'm BTCL and that's what counts :houra
Click to expand...

I have Kentucky over 148 tomorrow...laying a bad number but will beat the closing line....:lol
 
Doughy

Doughy

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Viejo Dinosaur said:
I have Kentucky over 148 tomorrow...laying a bad number but will beat the closing line....:lol
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I like the play. You sure that will beat the closing line? You could have wasted $5 in gas going from South Point to the Hilton and gotten 147'. They'd limit you to a nickel there, too, before gameday.
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Doughboy said:
I have been betting NCAA totals openers for between $330 (what I've been limited to at the Stratosphere) and $1100 (max bet I was allowed at South Point except sometimes for a nickel) at every casino that offers overnight lines the past 2 weeks and I am not kidding that my bets moved the line 80-90% of the time...you know...after a manager studies his Don Best screen for two minutes and then scrutinizes me up and down like I'm trying to board a flight with an AK-47. That's not big money and I'm not using a player's card except at Caesar's where I'm forced to. Try getting down more than a dime at any Vegas casino on overnight lines. Good luck, it ain't happening. But hey...I'm BTCL and that's what counts :houra
Click to expand...


That's the way it's been for a long time. Ain't nobody getting much down on NBA totals on early lines. NBA totals are the weakest lines of them all and nobody's taking much on them.
 
rainbow

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Sportsrmylife said:
I agree with VD. Here is the issue with "beating the closing number".

When YOU are the person moving the number aka BW or Edward from RAS then it actually shouldn't matter what they play as the books are going to move the line in their favor 100% of the time.

If you do get the respect of a book that will move numbers based on your bet then in the reason for "beating the number means you are a winner" you will be a winner regardless of what you play right?

What if BW bets some early lines to get what he really wants. Say he bets on a favorite early which moves the line up 2.5 points only to come back 30 minutes before tip off to hammer on the dog at the line he wanted. Let's say you bet the favorite at that early number....it moves 2.5 points in your favor are you really considered a long term winner when the whole time BW/Sharps wanted the dog at better numbers?

My opinion is that I don't believe that you are a winner.
Click to expand...
I 100% agree with you about BW, but all the years of experience in this business if you beat the line you beat the game period. I'm speaking LONGTERM...
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Doughboy said:
I have been betting NCAA totals openers for between $330 (what I've been limited to at the Stratosphere) and $1100 (max bet I was allowed at South Point except sometimes for a nickel) at every casino that offers overnight lines the past 2 weeks and I am not kidding that my bets moved the line 80-90% of the time...you know...after a manager studies his Don Best screen for two minutes and then scrutinizes me up and down like I'm trying to board a flight with an AK-47. That's not big money and I'm not using a player's card except at Caesar's where I'm forced to. Try getting down more than a dime at any Vegas casino on overnight lines. Good luck, it ain't happening. But hey...I'm BTCL and that's what counts :houra
Click to expand...

Sometimes I think "moving the line" to gamblers is more important than winning the bet. You still have to win the bet.

Whatever gratification you get from correcting some "asleep at the wheel" supervisor's board is meaningless if your bet loses.
 
U

unluckysob

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

95% of time does not matter-----the other 5%, you have right side half the time-----I figure beating closer by a couple points=advantage 2.5 out of 100 bets.-----I am weak at predicting line movement, can never tell what you bastards are going to do.
 
LQQKer

LQQKer

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

joeybagadonuts said:
What if you're aren't doing it for big money?

:+clueless
Click to expand...

It's the best of times then, if you can post winners and nobody notices, this is a very good thing. But if you keep winning, your BR gets bigger and BTW, books notice that you are winning and thusly you start moving the market.

So, large winning bets moves the line...or, if you are posting winners and have a large following, you can move the line.
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

If I said it once I said it a thousand times, its all bullshit.

I have the best Database(s) theere are or at least I have ever seen. I have lines in every major sports with openers and moves at 15-20 books (depending on sport) all the way back to 2004. In some sports I have that data back to 1998.

I can tell you without a doubt and you can take it for what it is worth, lines moves are wrong MORE than the openers are. if you assume the side that is moves to is always the 'right' side anyway. Which makes all this just conjecture anyway. because then all the BW ball washers and cock gobblers will claim he moved the line to get a better line on his side. Which is more fairy tale nonsense because if the guy was a quarter as good as everyone makes him out to be he wouldnt have to move a line to get an advantage he would just bet the 'right' side in the first place.

Openers also beat best available on teams that get bet heavy as well in at least 3 sports. the ONLY sport where line moves are close to accurate is NCAA hoops totals, and I think that is more of an anomaly and probably due to fixes than anything else. NCAA hoops sides are also sort of close. But in certain subsets they are clearly better. Which again I think goes more towards cheating and kids getting paid manipulating scores more than anything else. In the NBA, NFL, NCAA football lines moves arent even close to on par with openers in terms of which side wins or loses versus the spread. Not even close. As in the closers and even best available on moves are so far off the openers original win rate ATS that it is enough to make it more than mathematical 'expectation'.

Most guys just use anecdotal results and their own myopic and short term results and go from there. I have tens of thousands of actual moves and results to look at. trust me it isnt even close.
 
LQQKer

LQQKer

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

Jeff Jones said:
Sometimes I think "moving the line" to gamblers is more important than winning the bet. You still have to win the bet.

Whatever gratification you get from correcting some "asleep at the wheel" supervisor's board is meaningless if your bet loses.
Click to expand...

You do NOT want to move the line, unless you're playing BW tricks and trying to fake the market as to your true leanings.

The best possible world is to be able to bet as much as you want, and NOT impact the line. Unfortunately, the market reacts to you if you are winning. So, big losing bets have little impact.
 
LQQKer

LQQKer

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

wantitall4moi said:
If I said it once I said it a thousand times, its all bullshit.

I have the best Database(s) theere are or at least I have ever seen. I have lines in every major sports with openers and moves at 15-20 books (depending on sport) all the way back to 2004. In some sports I have that data back to 1998.

I can tell you without a doubt and you can take it for what it is worth, lines moves are wrong MORE than the openers are. if you assume the side that is moves to is always the 'right' side anyway. Which makes all this just conjecture anyway. because then all the BW ball washers and cock gobblers will claim he moved the line to get a better line on his side. Which is more fairy tale nonsense because if the guy was a quarter as good as everyone makes him out to be he wouldnt have to move a line to get an advantage he would just bet the 'right' side in the first place.

Openers also beat best available on teams that get bet heavy as well in at least 3 sports. the ONLY sport where line moves are close to accurate is NCAA hoops totals, and I think that is more of an anomaly and probably due to fixes than anything else. NCAA hoops sides are also sort of close. But in certain subsets they are clearly better. Which again I think goes more towards cheating and kids getting paid manipulating scores more than anything else. In the NBA, NFL, NCAA football lines moves arent even close to on par with openers in terms of which side wins or loses versus the spread. Not even close. As in the closers and even best available on moves are so far off the openers original win rate ATS that it is enough to make it more than mathematical 'expectation'.

Most guys just use anecdotal results and their own myopic and short term results and go from there. I have tens of thousands of actual moves and results to look at. trust me it isnt even close.
Click to expand...

Dude, get a grip.

BTW, BW does fvck with the market. Go talk to a linesmaker.
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

LQQKer said:
So, big losing bets have little impact.
Click to expand...

What? That's kinda the business of bookmaking.

If you can convince starry-eyed gamblers, as Sharp as they think they are, that they can rationalize that their losing has little impact, I'd say you have a successful business plan.
 
rainbow

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

LQQKer said:
Dude, get a grip.

BTW, BW does fvck with the market. Go talk to a linesmaker.
Click to expand...
You will NEVER in LIFE win an ARGUEMENT with that guy he thinks he has all the answers when meanwhile he don't even have 1/3 of the answers about this industry, only in his own mind he does...
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

I was going to bet the limit on Rainbow coming in here...
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

I will say 1 more thing....

Take out the games where there is an injury or bad weather that moves the lines 2 or more points. Take them out of your results about beating the closing lines makes you a winner and you will see that you have no argument.

Eliminate all the lines that moved for external reasons (injuries/weather/suspensions)

You will find that there is no advantage from beating the closing line. That is an absolute FACT!

The other thing...

To all the wanabees who act like they are making huge money beating the slow moving books..... Beating the closing line ONLY MATTERS TO THE BETTORS WHO ARE DOING IT......

To the rest of you.... You are all blowing smoke up everyone's ASS!!!!!!!!!!

You are not moving the lines so this subject is one you know nothing about!!!!

:LMAO
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

rainbow said:
You will NEVER in LIFE win an ARGUEMENT with that guy he thinks he has all the answers when meanwhile he don't even have 1/3 of the answers about this industry, only in his own mind he does...
Click to expand...

But this argument is only purported by the guy who thinks he has all the answers.
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

High Times said:
I will say 1 more thing....

Take out the games where there is an injury or bad weather that moves the lines 2 or more points. Take them out of your results about beating the closing lines makes you a winner and you will see that you have no argument.

Eliminate all the lines that moved for external reasons (injuries/weather/suspensions)

You will find that there is no advantage from beating the closing line. That is an absolute FACT!

The other thing...

To all the wanabees who act like they are making huge money beating the slow moving books..... Beating the closing line ONLY MATTERS TO THE BETTORS WHO ARE DOING IT......

To the rest of you.... You are all blowing smoke up everyone's ASS!!!!!!!!!!

You are not moving the lines so this subject is one you know nothing about!!!!

:LMAO
Click to expand...


:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO:LMAO
 
RealSlimShady

RealSlimShady

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

rainbow said:
I 100% agree with you about BW, but all the years of experience in this business if you beat the line you beat the game period. I'm speaking LONGTERM...
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Rainbow, if you went on the opposite side of all BW's plays, but at a price equivalent to what he beats each line on average, what do you think the results would be?
 
RealSlimShady

RealSlimShady

EOG Dedicated
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

For example, if he bets over 147 and the line goes to as high as 151(where you bet the under) and it closes 149.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: Gambling 101.....Beating the closing line....

see thats a great question....both beatin close by 2 points

:pop:
 
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