MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

The Next system which will generate 4 plays:

This is called OVER in 2 x 2:

Play over in the 2nd game of the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs.

This has been 23-5 ATS since the expansion of the first round in 2003 to a best of 7. It often generates unders in game 1 (17-11), as teams feel each other out. Game 2 features a typically lowered total from game 1, but teams scheme on how they are being defended in game 1, and come with better offensive plans. The 23 wins in the 28 games feature the following facts:

16 of the 23 overs went over the total by 10 points or more
No year has ever been worse than 2-2
3 of the 7 years have featured a perfect 4-0 mark to the over
The 23 overs have combined to eclise the total by 285.5 points, or by 12.4 points per game.
Last year the closest one was 13.5 points

TONIGHT:

BOSTON/CLEVE OVER 192.5

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

NBA 2nd ROUND:

Since the NBA expnded the first round to a best of 7 in 2003, it has changed the landscape in round 2. This is a 100% chase system, that has only one time even gone to a game 3 in the 7 years.

PLAY OVER FOR 1 UNIT IN EVERY GAME IN ROUND 2 OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS. IF YOU WIN, THAT SERIES IS COMPLETE WITH 1 UNIT OF PROFIT. IF IT LOSES YOU CHASE BY WAGERING AN AMOUNT THAT WHEN YOU WIN NETS 1 UNIT OF PROFIT, AND AFTER A WIN THE SERIES CHASE IS OVER.

SINCE EXPANSION OF ROUND 1:

28-0 +28 units

THE RESULTS TABLE:

CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1: 12 of 28 times: 42.9%
CHASE ENDED IN GAME 2: 27 of 28 times: 96.4%
CHASE ENDED IN GAME 3: 28 of 28 times: 100.0%

NEVER HAS THERE BEEN A NEED TO GO AS FAR AS EVEN A GAME 4!

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

LAKERS OVER HAS OCCURED NO MORE PLAYS IN SERIES CHASE, but tonight they are a play on the OVER due to other system

ROUND 2 CHASE BEGINS WITH ATLANTA/ORLANDO OVER TONIGHT.

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Ned ...three of the four series chases are now over correct ? just one remains with Orlando/Atlanta...I saw this too late my loss

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

UTAH/LAL CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1
BOS/CLEVE CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1
SA/PHX CHASE ENDED IN GAME 1

ATL/ORL PLAY OVER IN GAME 1

CHASE NOW 31-0

CHASE HAS NOW ENDED IN GAME 1 OR 2 30 OF 31 TIMES 96.8%

NO CHASE WENT PAST 3 GAMES EVER...

NOT MUCH OF A CHASE, PURE MONEY!!!

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

TONIGHT IT IS SA +2.5 (another system I haven't shared yet)

SA OVER Game 2 series 2 overs)

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

GAME 2 OVERS NOW 2-1

LAST ONE TONIGHT: ATL/ORL OVER

ALSO ATL +9 FROM OTHER SYSTEM

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Chase update:

Utah/lal chase ended in game 1
bos/cleve chase ended in game 1
sa/phx chase ended in game 1

atl/orl play over in game 1 LOSS
Atl/orl play over double in game 2 WIN

chase now 32-0

chase has now ended in game 1 or 2 31 of 32 times 96.9%

no chase went past 3 games ever...

Not much of a chase, pure money!!!

That concludes another clean chase!!!

Game 2 OVERS conclude also at 3-1 for yet another winning year! (Now 26-6)

 

[louish]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

good job ned

 

[ouch]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Well done.

You had mentioned earlier that you would be unveiling your baseball system. Is that still in the works? If it is, I am greatly looking forward to it.

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

I have a huge system for Interleague play, so expect to see that here shortly

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

GAME 2 (BOSTON @ ORLANDO)
While many will think Orlando will come blazing back tonight, the history books tell us that is not true. Just last year Cleveland went 8-0 the first 2 rounds and looked invincible in the process, much like Orlando this year. Then this same Orlando team goes to Cleveland for game 1 of the conference finals, and wins outright, so everyone expected the Cavs to bow up, and they did, but won by just a single point. I expect this one to be close, and history goes deeper than last year to justify the thought.

Teams in the conference finals that lost SU and/or ATS are a dismal 9-19-1 ATS since 1993! They seldom come back. When the line has been 7 or more, they are even worse at 1-8 ATS. Taking a look at all 34 games in this round over the same period, they have won 6 games by 10+, but the reality is the margin has topped 7 points in just 7 of the 34 games! That means 79.4% of the time in this situation, they have failed to get the money. The Celtics are the top road dog in the league over an elongated period, now at 57-28-2 ATS in their last 87.

The oddsmakers aware of the "zig zag" theory in the NBA Playoffs, try and thwart the activity, as in 100% of the cases where a team lost game 1 as a better seed in this round, the oddsmakers juiced the line for game 2. This tax takes what was established as a fair line in game 1, into a market inefficiency line for game 2, with the added tax.

I like Boston +7.5 in this one, and a further note, if the line should go to 8 or more, no team has ever covered 8 in this round in game 2 after losing game 1 SU and/or ATS.

As good as all this sounds the better value is on the total, which I have a GOY play on.

Just sharing a few thoughts, good luck with your choices.

 

[louish]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

whats your thoughts on the over under ned? thx

 

[ouch]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Ned,

I saw this on another site and thought it might be of some interest to you. It is basically a baseball system which looks like it has some merit.

In short....During the month of May, find two +.500 teams playing each other in a game where the total is 10 or higher.....and then play the UNDER.

The poster on the other site reported that since 1997, this system is 349-222.

In the last 3 years, it is 54 and 16.

In the last 5 years, it is 112 and 50.

And in 2010, it is a perfect 10 and 0.

 

[LAS VEGAS LOU]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Based on the top 5 defenses in all playoff games,system, I am ON under 189 in the Orlando game. Hope it's your GOY, Ned!!!
Thanks for all the valuable tips.
SS

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

I was here was what I sent out:

The Orlando Magic had won 8 straight in the playoffs, until Boston came in and put on a defensive clinic. The Celtics held Orlando to 41% shooting, and limited the Magic to a 5-22 performance from deep. The Celtics have played 13 playoff games, and have held 4 of the 13 to under 40% shooting, and 8 to under 42%. Orlando in their 9 playoff games has not allowed anyone to shoot over 46%. Conference Finals game 2's have hstorically played very defensive, especially with a low postd total in the 180s or less, which have gone 14-3 to the under since 1991. The Magic will take a page out of the Celtics defensive book tonight, as they are 27-10 to the under after failing to cover in their previous game, and 40-18 to the under vs a team with a winning percentage of over .600 in their last 58. The under has prevailed in 8 of the last 9 meetings, and the UNDER is my Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR!!!

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

YOU WANT 30 POINTS IN VALUE, HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF WHY, AND HOW:

NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS GAME 2:

The Suns and the Lakers opened game one in race horse fashion, with the game totalling 235 points scored between them. What it has done is force the oddsmakers hands, and pushed this total up 5 points from what was considered a fair bet in game one on the total. That pushes the value in this one onto the under. There is historical proof that this has been the case over the last couple of years. The public tends to over-react to a high scoring shootout, and the bandwagon fills up with over players. Despite the 5 point tax padded into the total here, over 66% of the general public sees game 1's shootout, and is clamping down in a big way on the over. History shows they are on the side of this one that has little redeeming value. Last year we saw 8 occurances of NBA Playoff shootouts, where 220 points or more were scored. The average points scored in those games was 233. The following game saw the total points scored drop from those shootout numbers of 233, all the way down to 205.3 per game. That represents a 28.3 point droppoff, while at the same time the lines were all posted higher on the total, adding to the value. The 9 representative games saw just 1 top the 215 mark, which is the total tonight. A fluke year? Not so fast. Let's turn the clock back to the 2008 NBA Playoffs, which saw 6 games reach the shootout proportion of 220 or more points scored. The 6 games averaged the same 233 points per game, but the following game, each with a higher posted total, saw that average dip to 202.5 points per game, again a huge drop of 30.5 points. The 6 games saw again just 1 that topped the 215 mark, making 12 of 14 staying beneath tonight's number. I'm not sure about you, but in looking for a high valued proposition, this certainly meets the criterian necessary for a play on the under. UNDER is the call in this one.

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

I have a huge system for Interleague play, so expect to see that here shortly

you starting next week with your system....will it be in the baseball forum ?

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Interleague play starts Friday, I will put a reminder up in MLB thread, but all plays will be posted here, just want to keep everything in 1 thread.

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

great ned....I am a big systems guy....I am using two now in baseball that have done well for me through the years......how long have you tracked this system ?

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL INTERLEAGUE PLAY CHASE:

The National League has gotten hammered by the American League just about every season when Interleague play begins. Since 2204 the AL is 160 games over .500 vs the NL. That sets up an amazing chase system, and here is how it works:

PLAY AGAINST ANY NL TEAM IN INTERLEAGUE PLAY UNTIL THEY LOSE 1 GAME. IF THEY WIN YOU WAGER ENOUGH IN THE NEXT GAME TO MAKE 1 UNIT OF PROFIT. ONCE THEY LOSE, YOU NEVER PLAY ON THEM AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERLEAGUE PLAY.

THE LAST 6 YEARS HAVE SEEN THE FOLLOWING RESULTS:

CHASE ENDS IN GAME 1: 63 times out of 96 OR 65.6% OF THE TIME
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 2: 19 times out of remaining 33 OR 57.8% OF THE TIME, MEANING 82 of 96 games or 85.4% end in game 2
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 3: 12 of remaining 14 games or 85.7% of the time, meaning 94 of 96 games or 97.8% of the time, the chase ends in just 3 games.
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 4: 2 of the remaining 2 games or 100.0% of the time

That means no chase ever went past 3 losses!

That means 1 out of every 2 years you reach game 4, and one out of every 2 years you never lose more than 2 in a row!

The GOAL: 16-0

Past 6 year record 96-0

GOOD LUCK:

FRIDAY MAY 21st:

PLAY ON:

BALT
CLEVE
TB
MINN
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
TOR
SEA
BOS
NY YANKEES
TX
KC
LA ANGELS
OAK
DET

 

[R-H]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

hi ned how do u get to 16-0 only 14 teams playing on american league thank u

 

[R-H]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

sorry ned got it now there are 16 natinal team and the system is to play against them ..

 

[louish]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

hi ned, do you have a win loss record for just game one for each year? i know you are busy so forget it if you don't have any free time...thx for all the systems!!!!!!!12io4j2w90

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

hi ned, do you have a win loss record for just game one for each year? i know you are busy so forget it if you don't have any free time...thx for all the systems!!!!!!!

GAME 1: Followed by game2, game3,game4, none ever past 4

2009 10-6, 2-4, 2-2, 2-0
2008 10-6, 2-4, 3-1, 1-0
2007 11-5, 3-2, 2-1, 1-0
2006 11-5, 4-1, 0-1, 1-0
2005 12-4, 3-1, 1-0
2004 10-6, 5-1, 1-0
2003 8-8
2002 8-8
2001 12-4
2000 12-4
1999 8-8
___________________
11 yr totals 112-64 63.6% As you can see game 1 is a huge play on day for the AL as they have never produced less than 50% winners!

GAME 2 RECORD: 19-13
GAME 3 RECORD: 9-5
GAME 4 RECORD: 5-0

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

INTERLEAGUE PITCHER ORIENTATION SYSTEMS:

VS LEFTHAND PITCHING:

THE BAD:

BALT 10-25
SD 16-37
LAD 7-20

THE GOOD:

SEA 35-16
OAK 20-8

VS RIGHTHAND PITCHING:

THE BAD:

PHL 16-37
MILW 6-18 (on road)
COLO 17-46 (on road)
SF 18-38 (on road)

THE GOOD:

MINN 38-13
STL 38-15
DET 42-19

OTHER SIGNIFICANT PLAYS:

WASH 33-12 @ home vs losing teams
BOS 63-23 last 86 (30-12 on road)
CINN 15-31 road
TB 35-17 favorite
HOU 26-57 dog
CHI CUBS 8-20 dog
MINN 54-19 last 73
LAA 40-16
TOR 9-23 vs losing team
SD 6-20 dog
LAD 11-28 vs winning teams

TOTALS:

BLT UNDER 18-7 as dog
BOS UNDER 37-16 as dog
NYY UNDER 20-8 as fave -151/-200
TB 21-8 OVER vs RHP
HOU 19-5 UNDER last 24
TX 20-8 UNDER last 28
COLO 21-9 UNDER last 30
CHI WHITE SOX 19-6 OVER VS winning team
FLA 24-10 OVER last 34
STL 10-2 UNDER @ home last 12
TOR 21-7 OVER vs RHP
SEA 15-6 UNDER @ home vs LHP
SEA 26-11 UNDER as favorite
LAD 18-7 UNDER vs winning team

Someone want to track these be my guest, I don't have time to do it here

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

So hopefully according to these trends on this system ....all 14 should be over by Sunday with everyone being a three game series.....lets make some cash :cheers

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Also:

NBA Conference finals market inefficiency:

The NBA Conference finals has seen 59 teams get off to a 2-0 start since 1958 when the series became 7 games. Out of those 59 games, just 3 went on to lose the series, or 5.1%. So there is a huge market inefficiency within the moneylines here, even though they are chalky, and most will ignore, but it is so full of value. This is how you beat the sports books gentleman, you find the market inefficiencies such as this. The odds should be -1860 for the series on both teams. Instead:

Take LA Lakers -1100 for series

and Boston -450 for series

Parlay both at -320 to win series, and win!

Your laying 11 to 1 on Lakers when the true odds are 18.6 to 1
and 4.5 to 1 on C's when true odds are 18.6 to 1

Don't be afraid of the chalk, make yourself 3 bills!

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Ned I was backtracking last year to see favs vs dogs trends on this and the second team I come to the Atlanta Braves went to game five on this system....they swept the Blue Jays May 22-24 then next interl was against Balt June 12-14.... won the may 12 th game 7-2 then lost the FIFTH game in the chase ....hope the numbers are right just the first one I came to


http://mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=atl&m=6&y=2009

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Ned thanks for the system.....everything looks great....thereis no real advantage home/away or fav/dog ...everythinhg is right down the middle.....hope we do well.....just that braves game was off by one game....thanks for all the work and the heads up

 

[munson15]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

GL Ned. Missed a lot because I stopped looking in this thread once NCAA was over.

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Ned I was backtracking last year to see favs vs dogs trends on this and the second team I come to the Atlanta Braves went to game five on this system....they swept the Blue Jays May 22-24 then next interl was against Balt June 12-14.... won the may 12 th game 7-2 then lost the FIFTH game in the chase ....hope the numbers are right just the first one I came to


Your correct, I see what I did, I missed the Toronto series on Atlanta, and had them ending in the 2nd game vs Baltimore, so one game has gone to level 5.

 

[R-H]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

hi ned only a 3 games serie , should we play 4th game if neccesary on next interleague games ? please let us know thank

 

[louish]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

good day 1

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

All games continue throughout interleague play beyond series 1 if needed until all teams have won:

RESULTS:

ATLANTA NO PLAYS YET
PITTSBURGH NO PLAYS YET

TEAMS THAT LOST AND ARE FINISHED WITH 1 UNIT PROFIT GENERATED:

LOST GAME 1:

MYM
WASH
FLA
MILW
COLO
SD
SF
CHI CUBS

8 teams lost they will no longer be faded

WON GAME 1 AND PLAY AGAINST ON SATURDAY 5-22 enough to win 1 unit including recovering loss from game 1:

PHILA PLAY ON BOSTON
STL PLAY ON LA ANGELS
CINN PLAY ON CLEVE
LA DODGERS PLAY ON DETROIT
ARIZONA PLAY ON TORONTO
HOU PLAY ON TB

WE ARE DOWN TO 8 TEAMS INCLUDING ATL/PITT WHO HAVE NOT PLAYED YET

8-6 FRIDAY, good news is 5 of the 6 losers were dogs, so doubling up is not costly at this point

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

All games continue throughout interleague play beyond series 1 if needed until all teams have won:

RESULTS:

ATLANTA NO PLAYS YET
PITTSBURGH NO PLAYS YET

TEAMS THAT LOST AND ARE FINISHED WITH 1 UNIT PROFIT GENERATED:

LOST GAME 1 or 2:

MYM
WASH
FLA
MILW
COLO
SD
SF
CHI CUBS
PHILA
STL
HOU



11 teams lost they will no longer be faded

SUNDAY PLAY ON TEAMS GAME 3:

PLAY ON:

CLEVE
DET
TOR

PLAY TO GENERATE 1 UNIT PROFIT AFTER ALLOWING FOR NET LOSS IN GAMES 1 & 2

 

[Blimp jr]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Hey Ned would the under on tonights NBA game be a play since it did not win in the last game? This is probably a stupid question but I am KING of stupid! Thanks Frank.

 

[Ned]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

All games continue throughout interleague play beyond series 1 if needed until all teams have won:

RESULTS:

ATLANTA NO PLAYS YET
PITTSBURGH NO PLAYS YET

TEAMS THAT LOST AND ARE FINISHED WITH 1 UNIT PROFIT GENERATED:

LOST GAME 1 or 2 or 3

NYM
WASH
FLA
MILW
COLO
SD
SF
CHI CUBS
PHILA
STL
HOU
LA DODGERS
ARIZONA
CINN



14 teams lost they will no longer be faded

SUNDAY PLAY ON TEAMS GAME 3:

PLAY ON:

CLEVE WIN
DET WIN
TOR WIN

GENTLEMEN:

That makes this sytem once again display the market inefficiency that cluster wagering, be it straight up, or chase, gets the money! That means with 14 games chased once again the system is the solution, as no team being played on had to be chased past 2 losses!

PROFIT:

14-0 +14 units, making this system now 110-0!

NOTE:

Pittsburgh and Atlanta did not play an interleague game yet, as the unbalance in the AL/NL dictates 2 teams sit out. I WILL NOT BE PLAYING EITHER OF THE TEAMS, THE CHASE IS OVER FOR ME.

REASONING:

Why chase 2 units with 14 units of profit in the bank, and no games played yet on Atlanta or Pittsburgh. Yes, this system has never lost, but one day it will. Why risk 14 units of profit and ruin what just happened chasing 2 units, wouldn't want to be out to game 5 or 6 and blowing it all. The money in the bank is safer than the money being chased at this point, be wise, bank and run!

I am in the process of killing MLB for +100 units with another market inefficiency that is 4-1 today, and leaves me at 72-44 last 116!

Hope everyone prospered.

I will be back when interleague play resumes June 11th with more interleague market inefficiency systems.

Good luck to all.

 

[Finance]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

12io4j2w90Ned thanks once again....I played every game - haven't figured it out yet, but I won well over your 14 units as I risked a unit on every dog and risked enough to win a unit on every fave...for Detroit today for example I risked 4 at +152 so ended up 6+ when I had only lost 3..I know that's not the way you lined it up, but that's how I always play bases....

Thanks again for sharing - people can bash this stuff all they want, my bankroll has been greatly enhanced by your systems....

:cheers

 

[Joboarder]

Re: MARCH 2nd TUESDAY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DAY #1

Yeah thanks ned on the heads up and sharing ....that is what is good about these forums....you did not need to share but you did...I try to do the same ...thanks again