More football games are lost than won.
Future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Tom Brady takes it one step further when he claims 90% of all NFL games are lost, not won.
Turnovers, penalties and other self-inflicted wounds like suspect play calls, questionable audibles and poor sideline decisions (game management/clock management) sabotage a team's chance at victory.
Interestingly, managing a football game is a lot like managing a gambling portfolio.
You must first stop losing before you start winning.
Foolish decisions when making selections, assessing performance levels, sizing your bets, choosing your markets, or reacting to adversity or even prosperity cause problems for sports bettors everywhere.
The inexperienced bettor is more susceptible to committing a rookie mistake than the skilled sports bettor.
Same is true for the college football player or college football coach compared to their professional counterparts.
Take, for example, last Saturday's first two FBS games of the 2019 college football season.
You've heard the expression, "Neither team deserved to lose the game."
The phrase is often invoked when two teams compete in a close, hard-fought game played at a high level.
In Week Zero of the 2019 college football season, the opposite happened.
None of the four teams involved on the first Saturday of the season deserved to win.
Florida, Miami (Florida), Arizona and Hawaii set the college game back 150 years to its birth year of 1869.
The countless mistakes made the two games difficult to watch.
Football purists love to watch clean games where silly decisions are kept to a minimum and unforced errors are nearly non-existent.
It wasn't so much which coach or quarterback would help their team the most, but rather which coach or quarterback would hinder their team the least.
Florida was -3 in turnover margin and gained less than two yards per rushing attempt, yet still beat Miami by four points, 24-20.
Don't credit Florida for winning the game; blame Miami for losing it.
Florida's 16 tackles for losses, including 10 sacks, is a testament to the team's defensive front seven and demotes Miami's struggling offensive line which failed miserably in trying to protect a freshman quarterback.
Pressuring a college football quarterback is the primary source of game-changing miscues.
Quarterbacks on overmatched college teams make more mistakes than NFL signal-callers when faced with 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long situations.
Most inexperienced quarterbacks do not perform well when their team plays behind the chains or falls behind a realistic down-and-distance schedule (1st-and-10, 2nd-and-5, 3rd-and-1).
Miami finished the game 2-for-15 on third and fourth downs, a damning stat for a team's offense and one that puts its defense in a precarious, if not perilous, position.
Unlike the game in Orlando, defense was optional in the nightcap of last Saturday's football doubleheader.
The game between Arizona and Hawaii promised to be a shootout -- the total closed 71 at Westgate, a full 25 points higher than the first game -- and it delivered on the promise.
Hawaii defeated Arizona, 45-38, in a game that featured a double-digit home underdog winning outright despite losing the turnover battle by four.
Highly unusual for a Group of Five team to beat a Power 5 squad with a turnover margin of -4.
Hawaii starting quarterback Cole McDonald (four interceptions) was benched late in the third quarter in favor of former Hawaiian high school star Chevan Cordeiro, a redshirt freshman who rallied his team to victory.
The starting status of gunslinger McDonald against visiting Oregon State (September 7) is very much in doubt.
Cordeiro is solid, not spectacular, but seems like the safer play because McDonald offers a much wider range of outcomes.
There were a total of 29 "chunk plays" (15 for Arizona and 14 for Hawaii) in last Saturday's game on the island.
Chunk plays are defined as pass plays of 15 yards or more or run plays of 10 yards or more.
This handicapper was not involved in either game, but I watched every play of both games.
I learned more about the four football programs in eight hours than I would have learned by studying the teams over the previous eight months.
Besides, I trust what I see more than what I read, especially from biased fans on Internet blogs or stale preseason magazines.
Optimism reigns in a college football offseason where every team is undefeated and the ultimate goal is a national title.
And where athletes have added 10-15 pounds (muscle, of course) and picked up significantly more speed and explosion.
Do realistic expectations ever matter to college football programs?
Case in point, Illinois head coach Lovie Smith oversees a football program that is 9-27 over the past three seasons and a pathetic 4-23 in conference action.
Two of the four conference victories came against Rutgers during seasons in which the Scarlet Knights went a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play.
Players on the Illini football team disregard both past performances and future predictions (2019 regular-season win total for Illinois is 3.5 wins) when competing during fall camp.
Instead, Illinois breaks every huddle with a three-word battle cry that makes even the most optimistic observer chuckle.
Please hold your laughter when hearing members of the Fighting Illini football team holler, "BIG TEN CHAMPS!"
Future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Tom Brady takes it one step further when he claims 90% of all NFL games are lost, not won.
Turnovers, penalties and other self-inflicted wounds like suspect play calls, questionable audibles and poor sideline decisions (game management/clock management) sabotage a team's chance at victory.
Interestingly, managing a football game is a lot like managing a gambling portfolio.
You must first stop losing before you start winning.
Foolish decisions when making selections, assessing performance levels, sizing your bets, choosing your markets, or reacting to adversity or even prosperity cause problems for sports bettors everywhere.
The inexperienced bettor is more susceptible to committing a rookie mistake than the skilled sports bettor.
Same is true for the college football player or college football coach compared to their professional counterparts.
Take, for example, last Saturday's first two FBS games of the 2019 college football season.
You've heard the expression, "Neither team deserved to lose the game."
The phrase is often invoked when two teams compete in a close, hard-fought game played at a high level.
In Week Zero of the 2019 college football season, the opposite happened.
None of the four teams involved on the first Saturday of the season deserved to win.
Florida, Miami (Florida), Arizona and Hawaii set the college game back 150 years to its birth year of 1869.
The countless mistakes made the two games difficult to watch.
Football purists love to watch clean games where silly decisions are kept to a minimum and unforced errors are nearly non-existent.
It wasn't so much which coach or quarterback would help their team the most, but rather which coach or quarterback would hinder their team the least.
Florida was -3 in turnover margin and gained less than two yards per rushing attempt, yet still beat Miami by four points, 24-20.
Don't credit Florida for winning the game; blame Miami for losing it.
Florida's 16 tackles for losses, including 10 sacks, is a testament to the team's defensive front seven and demotes Miami's struggling offensive line which failed miserably in trying to protect a freshman quarterback.
Pressuring a college football quarterback is the primary source of game-changing miscues.
Quarterbacks on overmatched college teams make more mistakes than NFL signal-callers when faced with 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long situations.
Most inexperienced quarterbacks do not perform well when their team plays behind the chains or falls behind a realistic down-and-distance schedule (1st-and-10, 2nd-and-5, 3rd-and-1).
Miami finished the game 2-for-15 on third and fourth downs, a damning stat for a team's offense and one that puts its defense in a precarious, if not perilous, position.
Unlike the game in Orlando, defense was optional in the nightcap of last Saturday's football doubleheader.
The game between Arizona and Hawaii promised to be a shootout -- the total closed 71 at Westgate, a full 25 points higher than the first game -- and it delivered on the promise.
Hawaii defeated Arizona, 45-38, in a game that featured a double-digit home underdog winning outright despite losing the turnover battle by four.
Highly unusual for a Group of Five team to beat a Power 5 squad with a turnover margin of -4.
Hawaii starting quarterback Cole McDonald (four interceptions) was benched late in the third quarter in favor of former Hawaiian high school star Chevan Cordeiro, a redshirt freshman who rallied his team to victory.
The starting status of gunslinger McDonald against visiting Oregon State (September 7) is very much in doubt.
Cordeiro is solid, not spectacular, but seems like the safer play because McDonald offers a much wider range of outcomes.
There were a total of 29 "chunk plays" (15 for Arizona and 14 for Hawaii) in last Saturday's game on the island.
Chunk plays are defined as pass plays of 15 yards or more or run plays of 10 yards or more.
This handicapper was not involved in either game, but I watched every play of both games.
I learned more about the four football programs in eight hours than I would have learned by studying the teams over the previous eight months.
Besides, I trust what I see more than what I read, especially from biased fans on Internet blogs or stale preseason magazines.
Optimism reigns in a college football offseason where every team is undefeated and the ultimate goal is a national title.
And where athletes have added 10-15 pounds (muscle, of course) and picked up significantly more speed and explosion.
Do realistic expectations ever matter to college football programs?
Case in point, Illinois head coach Lovie Smith oversees a football program that is 9-27 over the past three seasons and a pathetic 4-23 in conference action.
Two of the four conference victories came against Rutgers during seasons in which the Scarlet Knights went a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play.
Players on the Illini football team disregard both past performances and future predictions (2019 regular-season win total for Illinois is 3.5 wins) when competing during fall camp.
Instead, Illinois breaks every huddle with a three-word battle cry that makes even the most optimistic observer chuckle.
Please hold your laughter when hearing members of the Fighting Illini football team holler, "BIG TEN CHAMPS!"
Last edited: