NHL 2021 Season

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
ok WB -500 is quite high considering I've looked at several books and the largest I can find is -450 right now, the lowest is -435.

In 60 min. Regulation Pinnacle I see has +517 on the Draw and +548 on the Kings
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I need the Kings to get a point here since I have them Over 49.5 points. Where are they now? 49!

I think U6 might be the better play. Kings playing in net Troy Grosenick - not to be confused with Roy/Brodeur meaning I think the Kings try and play tighter D to support him.
 
ok WB -500 is quite high considering I've looked at several books and the largest I can find is -450 right now, the lowest is -435.

In 60 min. Regulation Pinnacle I see has +517 on the Draw and +548 on the Kings
They were -500 earlier right now twinspires is the highest at -480
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
They were -500 earlier right now twinspires is the highest at -480

One of the places I check was at -450 earlier and they are up to -500 Colorado now.

I'm going to pass, I like the under in Van-Calg with the matchup and goalies going so maybe a No Score in 1st 10 mins or Under 1st period or Under 6 for game might be worth a look but it's really just a lean with nothing on the line I will pass. Anyone playing anything else with the 3 games tonight?
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
No one's Hockey opinion I respect more than Kevin Allen. He makes some real good points in this piece.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nhl/avalanche-vs-golden-knights-odds-picks-april-28th-2021/

One reason why the Golden Knights are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup is that Fleury has posted a 2.09 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage. He has started 31 of the Golden Knights’ 46 games. He is 4-0 in his last four starts with a .942 save percentage.

These two teams are comparable on paper, but Grubauer’s absence from the lineup shifts the advantage heavily to the Golden Knights. Vegas leads the NHL with a .923 team save percentage.
Grubauer has a .920 save percentage this season. His backup, Devan Dubnyk, owns a .899 save percentage this season. One negative to ponder: Vegas is 23-24 against the spread this season.
Pick: Golden Knights -1.5 (+195)
 
NHL Playoff Series start on Saturday, May 15.

Lines up at Pinnacle around 6 hours ago:

Boston -155 vs Caps +132

TB -138 vs Flor +118

Pens -129 vs NYI +110

Canes -237 vs Preds +198

Pinnacle as of around 15 minutes ago:

Boston -1.5 games +116 vs Caps +1.5 games -136

TB -1.5 games +136 vs Florida +1.5 games -156

Pens -1.5 games +156 vs NYI +1.5 games -185

Canes -1.5 games -133 vs Preds +1.5 games +114



"Stanley Cup playoffs schedule and where to watch":

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/2021-stanley-cup-playoffs-broadcast-schedule-1.6025315
 
Other series lines up now:

Oil -205 vs Jets +173

Laffs -315 vs Habs +258

Vegas -245 vs Wild +205

Avs -393 vs Blues +314

---

Oil -1.5 games +101 vs Jets +1.5 -118

Laffs -1.5 games -157 vs Habs +130

Vegas -1.5 games -121 vs Wild +1.5 +104

Avs -1.5 games -200 vs Blues +1.5 +169
 
Wild +1.5 seems like a value play to me. VGK starting to get a little more banged up. Their lack of success against the Wild is well known, but I don't think it's that big of a deal in the playoffs. I do think though this is a tough enough matchup that may require that all important home ice for game 7.
 

choslamshe

EOG Dedicated
Bruins, Panthers, Oilers for me in 1st round. Lean to the Isles but man, watching them try to generate offense is sometimes painful...
 
My luck on brackets is horrendous, I'm dead money for some reason.

My favorite angle EARLY in the playoffs is to seek value betting the team with the less regarded goalie. This hot goalie steals games and sometimes series idea is a bit overrated, but I do think it offers some value. The best goalies going into the playoffs rarely add value beyond what you expected and at times they slump a little bit early on. The guys who you think of as hot goalies are guys that you gave no credit to before it all started. Then in retrospect you look back and say yeah see goalies mattered. Problem is you probably didn't predict it before hand when it could have been profitable.
 
The tried & true "Lippsman Split" NHL playoffs angle:

It's that time again.....NHL playoffs......The Lippsman split

Tried and true and very much copied on the net too.

Betcha' you didn't know I was a poet ?

I started this back in the days of Q-Link, before it was called AOL. Posted it back in 1986 when you accessed online with a dial up modem.

The whole goal is to win the first dog play in series. But if you don't get that first game then you play for the split on the 2nd one. I look for at least a +120 payback. There can be no injuries to any of your 1st liners. You win the first one you walk away. You lose the first then play the dog in the 2nd one. Don't chase....don't chase....don't chase.

If the dog loses the first game you take them no matter what the line is in game 2 as long as there are no 1st liner injuries

This is for the first two games in the series only.

This reason it works well most seasons is that in the NHL as most playoffs, the teams play a much better D than usual. So a lower scoring game gives a boost to the dog. Also being just the first two games the teams don't usually take many chances and err on the side of caution.

Now there are variations that I do not recommend but they are out there and well.....they have been known to turn a profit.

1 Chase the dog loss, don't do it, just play the regular wager and don't double up

2. If the dog wins the first game you take the fave in the 2nd one. I will play this sometimes. But if it's juiced more than -140, which it usually is, then of course I play the -1 line. You notice I didn't mention the regulation line. That's because there is just too much of a chance of OT in the playoffs. Don't play regulation lines. Play the -1.

You will notice this has a twinge of how I play the first few weeks of the season, by taking dogs of +130 or more. Also how I will play the last couple days of the season. Don't forget that in pucks, home ice really doesn't mean squat for most teams. Use that to your advantage.

https://www.covers.com/forum/nhl-betting-23/the-lippsman-split-103342698
 
My strongest opinion is Caps +135 for the series. Seems like everyone likes the Bruins here and calls for them to go far in the playoffs. I'll take the contrarian view and say they are overpriced. Boston is analytically a slightly better team, but I think some of that has come from them making a more concerted effort in the second half. Its very close though. Giving the Caps a slight edge for the home ice and its about dead even. And as I mentioned previously, I like these teams early on with what on paper feels like a goalie disadvantage. Rask will be a big asset IF the Bruins get to the final four, but early on its just not nearly as important as most think.
 
My strongest opinion is Caps +135 for the series. Seems like everyone likes the Bruins here and calls for them to go far in the playoffs. I'll take the contrarian view and say they are overpriced. Boston is analytically a slightly better team, but I think some of that has come from them making a more concerted effort in the second half. Its very close though. Giving the Caps a slight edge for the home ice and its about dead even. And as I mentioned previously, I like these teams early on with what on paper feels like a goalie disadvantage. Rask will be a big asset IF the Bruins get to the final four, but early on its just not nearly as important as most think.

https://www.sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=25316

One of you (at most) will be happy, but not both. Assuming no hedging occurs during the series.
 
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The game line & series line (Pinnacle) seems to be getting plenty of two way action. At first Boston for the series was getting the money, but then the Caps got hit.

OTOH, it seems the under is, for the most part, getting consistently hit hard:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/4407898/line-history/

In the Cup Futures market Boston has been getting more action. The price on the Caps has gone up significantly.

Boston was +1058, now +987.

Caps were +1352, now +1747.

So even though they were a recent Stanley Cup champion, the Caps are not getting much respect in that Futures market.

This post also addresses the series & futures bets:

http://forums.eog.com/index.php?thr...or-the-2021-nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs.7468914/
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Great start to the playoffs entertainment wise, TBay and Florida was great to watch, unfortunately I lose the 60 min Reg Florida +0.5 bet by slightly over a minute and bad news for Florida with Sam Bennett getting a one game suspension.

Perhaps they all lose in the 1st round but I had 1-2 of these teams getting to game 7 and losing or barely squeaking by. Which of these teams doesnt get past the 1st round?

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Vegas
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Great start to the playoffs entertainment wise, TBay and Florida was great to watch, unfortunately I lose the 60 min Reg Florida +0.5 bet by slightly over a minute and bad news for Florida with Sam Bennett getting a one game suspension.

Perhaps they all lose in the 1st round but I had 1-2 of these teams getting to game 7 and losing or barely squeaking by. Which of these teams doesn't get past the 1st round?

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Vegas

Leaves are darn close to a sure thing
Golden Showers might be down 1-0 but losing 1-0 in OT still gives me faith in them coming back
Tampa Bay is up 1-0 and won on away ice and is defending champ but of the 3 teams Panthers are the best opponent so I will go with Florida even though I picked TB to win the series and think they will
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Thanks for the input WD, hope the playoffs treat you well, going with this one tonight

Boston 60 min Regulation line Pk -133 0.5 unit pinny
 

bobodad

EOG Senior Member
I think the Toronto Maple Leafs is much better than the other three playoff teams in their division. They are deep, rolling with 4 lines and has solid goal tending. The team has a good combination of young skilled players, and experienced players. Sheldon Keith is a good coach. I think they shouold have no problems getting out of their division. Outside their division will be a different story.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I think the Toronto Maple Leafs is much better than the other three playoff teams in their division. They are deep, rolling with 4 lines and has solid goal tending. The team has a good combination of young skilled players, and experienced players. Sheldon Keith is a good coach. I think they should have no problems getting out of their division. Outside their division will be a different story.

100% agree to all you wrote. But for me if the Leaves get out of the division I can set myself up to make money even if they don't win the Cup
 
I think for most bettors they just wanted to see if Kucherov was really ready to go. Two goals later I think they got their answer.

Oddly enough TB is even cheaper today for game 2 than in game 1. In fact Pinnacle doesn't even have them favored to win, but as a pick -105/-105. Some books even have Florida as the fav, according to SBR lines ATM.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
The quality chances given up by Florida in the 1st period tonight is scary.

Will look to Fleury to have another strong effort so will add another unit on Minny Under 2.5 -126 pinny 1 unit
 
Oddly enough TB is even cheaper today for game 2 than in game 1. In fact Pinnacle doesn't even have them favored to win, but as a pick -105/-105. Some books even have Florida as the fav, according to SBR lines ATM.

The Dreidger effect. Let's see who they run with rest of the way.
 
I like the Caps +1.5 -170 tonight. These teams are just so close, trading surges. In the end probably having to use Anderson will do in the Caps for the series, but he's playing perfectly fine for the moment.
 
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