Santiago Ponzinibbio +120/+105 (73" reach) vs Miguel Baeza (74.5" reach)
Current line: Ponzinibbio +110
Again, recency bias. Prior to Ponz's KO Loss to Jingliang, his was the next in line for the strap. Riding a 7 fight win streak where he was outclassing opponents or dropping dudes cold. Not in the TKO fashion where the ref saves you from further harm. We are talking lights out Ngannou style. Then came a 3 year layoff where Ponz had surgery complications (bacterial infections) then contracting COVID which kept him out of the octagon for a very long time. In his return against Jingliang, Ponz was not getting outclassed but clearly did not look himself. Did not seem to be able to find the range effectively and his movement/timing looked to be a tad off. He got caught by a power puncher in the first round and that could happen to anyone. Ring rust? I think it applies to all men not named Dominick Cruz. Yet Ponz does not seem to have been granted that leniency by the masses despite the 3 year hiatus. I think the dramatic loss and being forgotten while being shelved has set up some nice value to side with Santiago.
Baeza passes the eyeball test with flying colors. He looks like a model, excellent athlete, has crisp striking, and quick on his feet. However, he has beat no one worth mentioning. From a purely offensive standpoint there are alot of things to like about Baeza, defensively is quite the opposite. Baeza is very hittable but he has gotten away with it by just being the far better athlete in most of his bouts. Old Matt Brown nearly finished him a year ago before getting clipped himself. I don't think Baeza will get the luxury to recover as Ponz has serious power in his hands. Baeza also has shown to slow some if the fight reaches the 3rd.
Both men like to attack the calves with regularity. Again this comes down to defense. Ponz tends to control this part of the fight. He sneaks in power leg shots at the end of his combinations and has a great ability to read the incoming kick. If there is one thing he did well vs Jingliang is check the kicks. If Ponz controls this aspect of the fight as I expect, this will limit the fleet footed Baeza's movement.
This all seems like too much too soon for Baeza. I think he is a high ceiling prospect but still has a ways to go imo. Ponz has fought the best in the world successfully before and am banking on him getting back to form after the lengthy layoff. Ponz by 3rd round KO.