NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
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ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
adding an additional 2.2% on the future of Cleveland with Rings
+105 +100 whatever...still a dollar off IMO. one of the strongest bets I've seen in a good while. I've never bet a future more than twice before. It's important to note that 6.5% of my BR is not that much considering what I've made over the course of the year. In October the same 6.5% was around 4% without doing the actual math.
adding an additional 2.2% on the future of Cleveland with Rings
+105 +100 whatever...still a dollar off IMO. one of the strongest bets I've seen in a good while. I've never bet a future more than twice before. It's important to note that 6.5% of my BR is not that much considering what I've made over the course of the year. In October the same 6.5% was around 4% without doing the actual math.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I like +2.5 +100 better than +120 ML, but that's just me. I would probably take +2.5 +100 closer to +140 but I don't usually take ML's under +170 or so.
I like +2.5 +100 better than +120 ML, but that's just me. I would probably take +2.5 +100 closer to +140 but I don't usually take ML's under +170 or so.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
only locals and a couple of rogue books. never remotely w/a.
only locals and a couple of rogue books. never remotely w/a.
munson15
I want winners...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
now THAT is a great argument...for later. and get your damn CLASS out of my threads!! :+textinb3 I really hope this 2nd half works out, I really think I might HITT it as Rod would say. :cheers
now THAT is a great argument...for later. and get your damn CLASS out of my threads!! :+textinb3 I really hope this 2nd half works out, I really think I might HITT it as Rod would say. :cheers
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
Always a pleasure exchanging views, X. That's mainly why I'm here, for enlightened talk about sports investing. I don't get much of that on the street here.:+textinb3 Lots of good people and it's a great place for family life, but very few Scrantonians are sweating the 2H total in the den/DAL game.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Quit posting shit 20 seconds after it happened, you loser.....)
Quit posting shit 20 seconds after it happened, you loser.....)
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
Just waiting to see how the refs screw up this game, I think they have more made FT's already than in Saturday's game, and that one was supposedly called too tight until the last play.:+clueless
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Just kidding you Munson with all that happened in the last few days here, hope you pull out the W bud....
Just kidding you Munson with all that happened in the last few days here, hope you pull out the W bud....
munson15
I want winners...
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
That angle would be the 2H over if the 1H total is a certain % of points below the projected game total? I'm thinking if two teams combine for 13 points less than 1/2 the game total, and the 2H over is half the original line, as was the case last night, over would be a high % play, even though it didn't work out yesterday.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
yep. it tends to override the blowout at the half angle, but works best I think if the score is close at the half. If a team is leading by 10 or more (ballpark) at the half the 3rd q tends to go over and the 4th under, 3rd often goes over enough to push the entire 2h over.
yep. it tends to override the blowout at the half angle, but works best I think if the score is close at the half. If a team is leading by 10 or more (ballpark) at the half the 3rd q tends to go over and the 4th under, 3rd often goes over enough to push the entire 2h over.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
I've not been able to figure that series line out. Boston was depleted physically and mentally at the start of the best of 7, but I feel the teams are more or less on even footing now and that Boston should be favored. The perception that the Chicago series took the fight out of the Celtics should have dissipated but the line has not corrected, in fact, it's higher than it was yesterday.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
Very interesting stuff, there. So if we define a blowout as 20 points or more, the 2H total should stay under and if the game is tight with a low-scoring half, the 2H total should go over, generally speaking. I've read a lot about this regarding NFL totals. Blowouts at the half create 2H unders and low scoring first halfs between normally high scoring teams would trend over for the 2H. The books have gotten way ahead of those two, however, which is why I'm very curious how it relates to the NBA.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
yes, I've used it in the NFL for years, the books have caught up a bit IMO as well. I don't use this blindly, but I almost never go against it in the NBA. Rebound differential is big, it's a big indicator of who will win the game when cross-referenced with turnovers, FT's, and shooting percentage. Also the number of 3pters made is an indicator, if teams make a lot of them at a high %, it seems to go under in the 2h. Of course, the actual number for the 2h is quite important, but it's usually fairly easy to guess what it will be within a point.
That Orlando ML is saying that Orlando might get it done in 6....
yes, I've used it in the NFL for years, the books have caught up a bit IMO as well. I don't use this blindly, but I almost never go against it in the NBA. Rebound differential is big, it's a big indicator of who will win the game when cross-referenced with turnovers, FT's, and shooting percentage. Also the number of 3pters made is an indicator, if teams make a lot of them at a high %, it seems to go under in the 2h. Of course, the actual number for the 2h is quite important, but it's usually fairly easy to guess what it will be within a point.
That Orlando ML is saying that Orlando might get it done in 6....
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
I like BOS -2. I know Howard and James would make a compelling Eastern Final, but the Celtics are a tough out, and have caught a second wind, IMO. Orlando had two chances to take this series by the throat and have come up wanting in each instance, I believe Boston gets it done here and probably takes it in 7.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
I agree with the factors you cite, but who has the time to assimilate all that at the half when there are several games being contested at once? I guess that's why handicapping is a young man's game.:+textinb3You say you don't use it blindly, I would guess that would be true in NBA and NFL both, although if I had the chance to sit at my computer all day on a football Sunday, I would probably use those two to good effect.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
it's hard at first, then you start to key in on what to look for and toss the garbage games. I usually watch the boxscores most of the games so I generally know what I'm going to look for before the 2nd half actually ends. But yes with 10 games going on at once, it's hectic and NFL halves are generally shorter than NBA.
it's hard at first, then you start to key in on what to look for and toss the garbage games. I usually watch the boxscores most of the games so I generally know what I'm going to look for before the 2nd half actually ends. But yes with 10 games going on at once, it's hectic and NFL halves are generally shorter than NBA.