NBA for opening week

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I like Denver based on the fact that the Mavs have already saved face and are likely to take a breath at some point, knowing that they have such a mountain to climb. I don't believe they have the will to come all the way back, and they've already accomplished something. Denver looks way too athletic for them, and now that the energy of the home crowd is no longer pushing Dallas forward, the Nuggets' desire to end this before things get too interesting should prevail. I don't think Dallas has the moxie of the 2004 Red Sox, is what I'm saying. Once they fall behind, thoughts of the country club and the green grass can't be far away. As always, though, X, I respect your position on this game.:smoking2:
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Dallas isn't the easiest team to figure out, but IMO why would they have mounted that comeback in game 4 and then have to travel to Denver unless they have something to prove. I love taking dogs in blood feud games. I passed on -7 because I didn't see the median better than -6. I've traveled a little thru various forums the last few minutes, and am not done yet, but I have yet to see a thread with Dallas plus the points...public is on Denver in a big way, I see similarities to the LA/Hou game 4.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Dallas isn't the easiest team to figure out, but IMO why would they have mounted that comeback in game 4 and then have to travel to Denver unless they have something to prove. I love taking dogs in blood feud games. I passed on -7 because I didn't see the median better than -6. I've traveled a little thru various forums the last few minutes, and am not done yet, but I have yet to see a thread with Dallas plus the points...public is on Denver in a big way, I see similarities to the LA/Hou game 4.
Yes, but I believe the difference is, and we talked about this earlier, the elimination game factor. I would think Denver sees this as a major opportunity to get rid of the Mavs and rest up for LA/hou. Public on Denver gives me pause and the line movement (which I love to fade) tempers my enthusiasm. GL whatever call you make, Dallas is easily the gutsier and of course, contrarian, pick for this one.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Yes, but I believe the difference is, and we talked about this earlier, the elimination game factor. I would think Denver sees this as a major opportunity to get rid of the Mavs and rest up for LA/hou. Public on Denver gives me pause and the line movement (which I love to fade) tempers my enthusiasm. GL whatever call you make, Dallas is easily the gutsier and of course, contrarian, pick for this one.
IMO, it puts a little pressure on Denver. As Jason Kidd put it, Dallas has nothing to lose, Denver is supposed to close it out and convincingly. It's not really a contrarian view here, there is just no reason for the line to be double digits. I love the fact that the masses are on Denver, but that is not the reason I'm hitting Dallas. Yesterday, taking Orlando would have been more of a contrarian view b/c the line wasn't that far off. I had it pk to -1, and around those number with a team at home facing elimination and knowing how the NBA tends to roll, I needed at least 3 so I passed. I might get 11 with Dallas and am going ML as well. I like the Mavs first half as well, but I don't want to get too caught up with one game. Denver could blow them out, but I just think that is more like 30% of the time or less, the longer a series goes generally the tighter it gets and I don't see a great reason that this game doesn't go the same way as the last two. Other key note: Denver is 9-0 ATS these playoffs, that is going to lead to an over-valuing for sure.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

IMO, it puts a little pressure on Denver. As Jason Kidd put it, Dallas has nothing to lose, Denver is supposed to close it out and convincingly. It's not really a contrarian view here, there is just no reason for the line to be double digits. I love the fact that the masses are on Denver, but that is not the reason I'm hitting Dallas. Yesterday, taking Orlando would have been more of a contrarian view b/c the line wasn't that far off. I had it pk to -1, and around those number with a team at home facing elimination and knowing how the NBA tends to roll, I needed at least 3 so I passed. I might get 11 with Dallas and am going ML as well. I like the Mavs first half as well, but I don't want to get too caught up with one game. Denver could blow them out, but I just think that is more like 30% of the time or less, the longer a series goes generally the tighter it gets and I don't see a great reason that this game doesn't go the same way as the last two. Other key note: Denver is 9-0 ATS these playoffs, that is going to lead to an over-valuing for sure.
Wow. I was not aware of the Denver ATS record. :doh110.5 is my magic number where I may throw out all my logic and say the line is out of proportion to the sitaution. As much as I've talked up Denver, it's more out of an interest in discussion since I've not bet it. Now that they are out of my comfort zone, I am forced to at least take a look at Dallas, since I do very well fading line moves. I know I sound like a blathering idiot talking Denver all day and potentially betting Dallas, but price is very important to me.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Wow. I was not aware of the Denver ATS record. :doh110.5 is my magic number where I may throw out all my logic and say the line is out of proportion to the sitaution. As much as I've talked up Denver, it's more out of an interest in discussion since I've not bet it. Now that they are out of my comfort zone, I am forced to at least take a look at Dallas, since I do very well fading line moves. I know I sound like a blathering idiot talking Denver all day and potentially betting Dallas, but price is very important to me.
I do the same thing at times. I almost hit Denver when it first came out and I saw a 7. Not trying to talk you out of anything, just explaining my point of view. I would be somewhat shocked to see Denver cover this game, these are the types of games that the sportsbooks make their money on.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I do the same thing at times. I almost hit Denver when it first came out and I saw a 7. Not trying to talk you out of anything, just explaining my point of view. I would be somewhat shocked to see Denver cover this game, these are the types of games that the sportsbooks make their money on.
Good, healthy discussion, and the ML point is especially significant in the books' perception of the game. BTW, SIA has a 'future' bet where you would only lay 5-1 on Denver to 'win in 5 games' in case you're looking for an off line.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

nothing on 2h. I do like the chances of this landing within 10, I like the over obviously, but both teams are shooting lights out, no real idea about what happens in the 2h.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

nothing on 2h. I do like the chances of this landing within 10, I like the over obviously, but both teams are shooting lights out, no real idea about what happens in the 2h.
Dallas is softer than a baby's ass and the defensive effort and lack of hustle shown is not indicative of a team on the verge of the conference finals.2938u4ji23
 
Re: NBA for opening week

yes, but Denver shot nearly 64% and is only up 14, I prefer this situation when having +10 than having Dallas being within 5 or 6. Turnovers and rebs about even, Dallas with more FT attempts, usually the team in this situation covers, Dallas isn't my favorite team in this spot though.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

yes, but Denver shot nearly 64% and is only up 14, I prefer this situation when having +10 than having Dallas being within 5 or 6. Turnovers and rebs about even, Dallas with more FT attempts, usually the team in this situation covers, Dallas isn't my favorite team in this spot though.
Yes, those factors would be stronger with a tougher club holding those numbers.:blink: GL.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

GL, X. Can't say I'm surprised at the Laker performance so far. Can't imagine them winning a game in Denver with how much effort the Nuggets consistently bring. Brutal loss with Boston. I had 7.5.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

GL, X. Can't say I'm surprised at the Laker performance so far. Can't imagine them winning a game in Denver with how much effort the Nuggets consistently bring. Brutal loss with Boston. I had 7.5.
yeah, not terribly surprised. LA matches up better with Denver.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I passed on 2h Orlando team total under 50.5 and I liked the Rox/La full game under a little less. I don't see the Orlando/Boston total doing anything but going down.

G7 Boston -2 for 2.2%
I don't see a way to take Orlando. I think Boston wins this game something like 62-64% of the time minimum. I favor playoff experience and the fact that they are the defending champs. I can see this as a Sac/LA (from years ago) deal as the entire world will probably be on Boston, but it's just the way I'm going. I would think it closes closer to -150 which isn't necessarily a good thing. I've raised my bet size without costing myself too much, it's generally what I do for the last two subsets.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Nice call on the 3Q. Looking forward to discussing DEN/LAL if it comes to that.:cheers
I'm not sure how well I'll do on full games in that series, but I am thinking there will be some 2nd half bombs coming in those 7 games. but everything is of course subject to change.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I passed on 2h Orlando team total under 50.5 and I liked the Rox/La full game under a little less. I don't see the Orlando/Boston total doing anything but going down.

G7 Boston -2 for 2.2%
I don't see a way to take Orlando. I think Boston wins this game something like 62-64% of the time minimum. I favor playoff experience and the fact that they are the defending champs. I can see this as a Sac/LA (from years ago) deal as the entire world will probably be on Boston, but it's just the way I'm going. I would think it closes closer to -150 which isn't necessarily a good thing. I've raised my bet size without costing myself too much, it's generally what I do for the last two subsets.
I took -130 not -2, I changed my mind and didn't change my thoughts. I don't want to get screwed by the point. I'll probably wait until the half with Houston/LA. playing poker.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I thought the 2 would hold up and it's already 2-1/2. I don't think Orlando has the moxie to take them out in Boston, either.
I would be careful laying points here. anything over -1 really diminishes the value IMO. It's not as good over -140 but still a bet at -150. I really see LA/Sacramento from several years ago here, but just a thought. the public has been getting crushed recently outside of Denver. I think this is one the public might be right about, at least I hope so, the timing seems right and no way am I taking a game 7 road team getting a projected 3/3' points. If it hits 4....
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I would be careful laying points here. anything over -1 really diminishes the value IMO. It's not as good over -140 but still a bet at -150. I really see LA/Sacramento from several years ago here, but just a thought. the public has been getting crushed recently outside of Denver. I think this is one the public might be right about, at least I hope so, the timing seems right and no way am I taking a game 7 road team getting a projected 3/3' points. If it hits 4....
So, you think its going to be a close game by the way I read. That is kind of contrary to the games this series, but then again, its game 7. Refs likely to get tight in this game as they respond to the nonsense of prior Staples games with the Rockets. I'd be more inclined to take the Lakers ML 1st Q and see where that takes you in the 2nd half.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I would be careful laying points here. anything over -1 really diminishes the value IMO. It's not as good over -140 but still a bet at -150. I really see LA/Sacramento from several years ago here, but just a thought. the public has been getting crushed recently outside of Denver. I think this is one the public might be right about, at least I hope so, the timing seems right and no way am I taking a game 7 road team getting a projected 3/3' points. If it hits 4....
Settled at 2.5 and -140 or so, better at Matchbook. Could see another Celtic cardiac finish. That has been their style these playoffs, they certainly don't figure to get it done easily.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Not exactly protecting that game total, eh?:+textinb3 That's the way to press an advantage.:cheers
no reason for 2h to be more than 94. they pretty much have to open around 1/2 of game total on 2nd halves. I like Houston 4th q b/c LA should have scrubs in there for longer.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

no reason for 2h to be more than 94. they pretty much have to open around 1/2 of game total on 2nd halves. I like Houston 4th q b/c LA should have scrubs in there for longer.
I love that 4Q bet for the same reason, it should be decided by then, but can't find an out for it.:doh1
 
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