1 I think fezz even had RJ fooled for a long time. He’s a horrible bettor but he was a decent self-promoter for a couple of years. Then groovin, et al started to get heard a bit more vocally. Deadspin article, etc.
2 I think the recording you’re referencing probably came out after cbob got on board. Clearly the pregame crew probably thought fezz could chase steam and derivative his way to gain a few units a month. They didn’t realize he was among the worst cappers alive when chasing and forcing action.
In defense of Fezzik....they cut his limits drastically on derivatives starting with Spiro. That probably started the tout thang (Jeff Jones where are you?). Pippy is right he probably can show a profit with derivatives but Vegas ain't the place to do it so we continue faking we can beat full games. I don't see any more tweets from brother Andy bragging re all the money Fezzik is making with daily pick buys. I think even the squarest bettor has put him on freeze then thawed for NFL.
Handicappers do this moneyline crap for two reasons. They do it when they are desperate for a win after getting destroyed or guys like It's Vegas Dave plays football -4 to -10 ML games or baseball -200 to -350 ML's so they can brag they go 2-0 on the night if they win both games.
Chucks, don’t mind Mr. “I like to read fezzik’s write ups” Top he’s as clueless as fezz.
But yeah the fezz moneyline plays started to pop up last football season. He will now never lay less than three in any sport, he will just FiRe the moneyline.
Absent this season have been his stellar HRE plays in baseball as he would chase totals steam via that method. Of course they lost all summer long but so did the BiG GaME unDeRZ and he keeps drinking from that well. DoWn in dA BUNKeR
Thx, ejd. Was just some food for thought. Here's my angle on historical trends:
* The more it's KNOWN...the more it's factored into the line.
So, things like Home Dogs (and specifically NFL Home Dogs) look good, if u stretch the database back 40 years. If you split the database into 20/20 years, the angle looks much closer to a 50/50 split. You have to win on correct pricing, not generic angles.