Adebayo in restricted area. There's a foul waiting to happen but you want the Lakers to take less than a 40% shot.
Jimmy Butler
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It doesn't matter. It's game situation. Give Green a million points if he hits that shot.
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He's surrounded by 4 guys in your last screenshot. Give me a break. They were going to live and die w/ anyone but LBJ beating them, ecspecially considering the game he was having. They lived,,,, for now.
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He gets paad alot of $ to make those shots, that's exactlly why we brought him in. He missed it and that's ok.
Yes, all game long you kick that out to Green. You can afford misses. Not with 10 seconds. I can't believe you don't understand.
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I say LBJ made the best play available. Your free to disagree and you'd be wrong but you have that right.
If Green goes 2-5 on the shot, you take it all day long. But he is only taking one shot, that's not the best option. If they were down 2 or 3, I could see it but not down 1.
Math isn't for everyone. Down 1 with 10 seconds. You make the play that gives you the greatest success rate to score 1 point.
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If this was game 7, I'd be happy w/ that look and if they lost the Series becuase Danny missed, then so be it. It takes a Village.
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Down 3 and Brick makes a great play. Down 2 and it's OK. Down 1, it's a brutal mistake.
No problem here.
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You're Resulting. Becuase he missed it, it was a bad play or read or whatever you're arguing. We have a fundamental disagreement, under the circumstances, it was our best option. They had him surrounded like Custer at Little Big Horn. I understand you want LBJ to turn water into wine but my expectations are a little lower.
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Thought experiment.
What would you have said if Danny made that shot and they won the game?
If it worked, then great. But it wasn't the optimum play for those circumstances being down 1.
It's simple math but you don't understand it. Once again, down 2 or more and it's a good or great play, not down 1.
Miami understood the situation, Brick didn't.
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Brick knew what was up.
Break it down. What should Green's percentage be from the top of the key, not a corner 3?
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Fuck, we just want an open look. Also, you understand, if he hits that shot, there are still 7 seconds left and a 2 ties them and only a 3 beats them.
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I don't have his shot chart and we also have to adjust it for "wide open" 3's.
There's no other way to put it. You're an idiot. Wide open shot during any point of the game except the last shot down 1. Down 3 I'd take a wide open 3 10' beyond the arch.
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Let's say he's 35% w/ wide open top of the key shots, that's 1.05 expected points. 1.05 > 1. LBJ's a genuis and you're an idiot.
It's ingrained that taking the wide open shot is the best shot but game situation should change that.
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would you agree that we can give Danny 35% in regards to "wide open" top of the key shots.... I don't know what it is but I'm just playing your silly game to prove how dumb you truly are. It's just math.
That's how you would figure it out? As I said, math isn't for everyone. Expected value is used during the game, not last shot.
Give Danny Green 1,000 pts for that shot and tell me expected value? It's irrelevant.
Brick's driving to the hole with Adebayo in the restricted area, what's the odds of Brick making the shot? What are the odds of Brick getting fouled? What are the odds of Brick making the shot and getting fouled?
Brick was by everyone except Adebayo.
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What? How the fuck do you think they get expected points totals? They add up all the shots and that particular shot was worth 1.05 points if our Danny numbers were right. Stop your silliness, you got yourself into this w/ your dumb ass math argument and I used it against you. Live w/ it.
Good night.
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You don't add up points. It's one shot.
Agreed, One shot worth 1,05 points in our example. 1.05 > 1. Correct decision despite the poor outcome.
The math seems to be confusing you so let me explain this to you like you are a 7-year-old.
Each team is allowed 5 players on the court.
1 & 2: Corner 3's are easier to make, that's why the Heat had them both covered.
3: AD was not in position for an Alley-oop, contrary to your analysis and I would have been shocked if a Heat Defense actually gave that up.
4. LBJ was surrounded like Custer at Little Big Horn.
5. Danny Green was wide open
Hmmmmm..... who should get the shot.... let me think about this.
Now, it's really good night.
Up, tie or down 1 point with 10 seconds to go, Brick should shoot. Down 2 or more, kick it out for the wide open 3 top of the key. With more time in regulation, kick it out every time.
No matter what happened there the last 10 seconds, it was a great game. Maybe this will give a ratings boost to game 6.
FairWarning
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I'm still alive. Now I can look at a possible hedge.
raycabino
Long Live Wilson!
I seem to remember Jordan doing the exact same thing with Paxson and a couple years later with Kerr in NBA finals last shot situations. What's the difference minus the result?