The sad part is that you're serious. It has nothing to do with which is the better shot with 10 seconds to go down 1.
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Jimmy Butler
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I wonder if its game 7, does Lebron make that pass?
ESPN doesn't make 10-part 30 for 30's for passing to the open man with a championship on the line.
ESPN doesn't make 10-part 30 for 30's for passing to the open man with a championship on the line.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
1. You're the one who brought up "the math" w/out even knowing what you are talking about.
2. I am 100% seriouos when I tell you 1.14 is greater than 1
3. The sad part is, you have no idea how to think about shit.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
In the exact same situation, yes.
No, but they will make a 30-part 30 for 30 one day on LBJ.
All Hail The King!
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Bred - that's over a whole game. 1.14 is irrelevant. Just think about it. If 1,000,000 points were given to hit beyond the arch and the odds of making the shot is 20%, do you want the last shot to be a 1,000,000 point shot down 1?
his math says otherwise.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Ok. Let's talk about it.
If Danny Green is taking a 3-pt shot and Second Spectrum says he had ~38% chance to hit it, what is the EV of that shot?
If Danny Green takes the last shot, he has a 38% chance to make the shot. That's all that matters.
Now what are the odds of Brick making the shot or going to the line?
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
The shot itself is worth 3 or 0. However, we don't know if he is going to make it or not, thus we turn to expectation. The EV of that shot was more than they were down by. Yes, you can't score 1.14 pts, but that's how you need to think about it.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
He's been clutch from the line.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
I understand that this isn't a natural or even intuitive way to think about it but you need to cultivate an EV Mindset.
Make it worth 1,000,000 pts or 3 pts. He still has a 38% chance to make the shot. 3 or 0. 1,000,000 or 0 is irrelevant..
over the whole game, not last shot. Simple concept. ..................What's the EV if the shot is worth 1,000,000 points and you have a 10% chance of making it? It doesn't matter.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
No. What matters is the Payoff.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
It does matter, whats my expectation on that shot?.....100,000 pts. If we are down by 99,999 then I like the shot.
38% for Green, now what are the odds of Brick making the shot or going to the line?
Stop
We went with the criteria of being down 1, last shot.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
You need to take a course in making decisions under uncertainty.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Yes and I already explained it to you and you keep telling me to, 'Stop." It's just math.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
There is no shot that is guaranteed to go in.... You have to think in terms of Expectation.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Could they have gotten a better shot? Maybe, there was still 7 seconds left but I'm happy w/ what we got. It didn't go down.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Considering a play or two before, he got hammered and got no call, I have no idea.
SlipperyPete
EOG Dedicated
Tied or down by 1, most times option B is to kick out for a 3.
I think that is wrong. Option B should be a 10-15 footer.
Much higher percentage.
I think that is wrong. Option B should be a 10-15 footer.
Much higher percentage.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Perhaps we could have gotten a better shot but we had a great look.
You also have to take under consideration the spacing, they spaced out for LBJ and LBJ saw it was an, "Anybody but LBJ," Defense so he created an open look for a teammate,
You want to use EV for multiple trials on the last shot. You don't have any idea what you're talking about.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
This is projection.
Yes, over the long term, that shot is worth 1.14 pts. We don't know if the next trial is going in or not, all we have is the Expectation.
Now you're starting to get it. Long term worth 1.14, not last shot. Last shot is 0 or 3. Multiple trials EV is irrelevant.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
What? Are you being serious?
If the last shot is worth 3-pts and it has a 38% probability of going in, what is the Point Expectation of that shot?
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
After you answer this, go delete your last 10 posts.
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Seriously, we an act like this never happened.
Stop
GameBred
I Trade Therefore I Am
Ok. We're done. I tried.