Re: NBA for opening week
this is an example of a debacle:
yes the subset won, but on one of the easiest, most profitable subsets in NBA playoff history, 7.1% had me pissed. It was a little bit better since I didn't post everything but it should have been closer to +20%. Boston around +190 to win the Finals vs LA? That should have been...nope there is no shouldhavebeens in this racket. Boston +9.5 in game 3? Those two lines were some of the craziest offerings I have seen. Instead of taking advantage I tried to figure out what the hell I was missing. Asked a OS bookmaker about it. "Not touching it..." Maybe that's what the oddsmaker was trying to do? But that argument is rebutted with the lines from games 4,5 (+7.5, +7)
Rubbish. The psychology remains strong. Debacle? No.
7% return in 2 months is GRAND. Can I do better, yes. I WILL do better. But I don't need to. I will be happy with 3% and I won't take unnecessary risks to prove otherwise. Which reminds me...I have 3% on Texas Tech this weekend
But at +6 and better it's a 65% winner
You know that NCAA March Madness saying the CBS guys like to say after a 2 seed beats a 15 seed in an ugly 1 point game? "Survive and Advance." I don't even like to keep a record most of the time. I know about how I'm doing but it's pointless to know exactly where I'm at. #1 on losing streaks I risk less, I don't need to know how bad the losing streak is, I already know I'm losing. #2 on winning streaks I risk less because after that 7th win in a row there's a lot less chance it gets to 8 and so on, I don't need to know I've won 7 in a row. #3 you know how long it takes to add up all the games every day? it's not just an easy 5-4 for .6%, I've got one at 1.2%, another two at 1.0%, a couple at .7%, 3 at .6%, and an add-on or lean at +100 for .4%, and that's before 2nd halves. Then repeat for college basketball and football. Then use the chart to calc vig, and it only took 35 minutes after double checking but guess what, 2 football games moved off of 3, a ML moved from +210 to +180, and 2 totals moved 2.5 points a piece. And I'm completely sidetracked from the upcoming games, I'm not hunting, I'm gathering. Then some forum mathnut asks "aren't you .023% off on the total from 3 days ago?? Hell if I know, Hell if I care. My accounts look about good enough to me. These are all true stories, funny yes, but I pretty much have to look at every NBA game for the entire year. Sure I take days off but I look at the ones that I miss and often without looking at the score first. Then you throw in college, and football at the same time...No way I can follow all the college basketball teams. It took 80 hours a week to get on top of all the NCAA football teams every week until about a couple weeks ago. There's twice as many basketball teams. Apparently my circadian basketball clock has kicked in as my brain prepares for the upcoming circus of numbers. Anyways, this is what I set out to do a few hundred words ago, just as a point of reference. Maybe some feedback, maybe because nobody in the beginning really told me a lot of this stuff or showed me and I wished they had. Well, there was Sick Gambler but most of his forum life seems was spent in a forum trial or in his mom's basement bitching about canceled hockey teasers or some or the like.
2.0 -110 = 1.81
1.5 -110 = 1.36
1.2 -110 = 1.09
1.0 -110 = .91
.8 -110 = .72
.7 -110 = .64
2008
+1.81 total of 2.0% on Cleveland at -2 w
adding 1.0% to over 186.5/187 Utah/Houston total of 2.0% l
+1.36 Dallas/NO over 192.5 for 1.5% w
reducing my position on Dallas/NO, buying back half as under 192.5 for .7% and... l
+1.36 New Orleans -4 for 1.5% w
2nd half Game 1 Phoenix +5.5 for .7% l
+.64 4/19 Utah +1 for .7% w
Toronto +7 for .7% l
+.91 Lakers -8 for 1.0% w
+1.36 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5% w
Philadelphia over 179 for 1.0% l
Toronto -1 2h for .7% l
Toronto under 97.5 for .3% l
adding .3% to Toronto -1 2h game 1 l
ATL/BOS over 190 for .8% l
G2 Phoenix +3 to -120 for 1.5% l
+1.09 G2 Cleveland -1.5 for 1.2% w
+1.36 G2 Jazz +1 for 1.5% w
Utah over 182.5 for 1.5% l
+.91 Utah under 184.5 for 1.0% w
+.72 G2 Toronto/Orlando over 199 for .8% w
+.72 G2 New Orleans -3.5 for .8% w
+.91 G2 Boston -15 for 1.0% w
+.91 G2 Lakers -8 for 1.0% w
G2 Philadelphia +10.5 for .8% l
+.55 G2 Lakers under 230 for .6% w
+.75 G2 5 pt teaser at 3/2 Det -5 to Bos -10 to Lakers -3 for .5% w
NBA title: Jazz +1600 for .5% l
Western Conference title: Jazz +560 for .3% l
Western Conference title: Phoenix +1300 for .4% l
+.91 G3 Jazz over 183 for 1.0% w
G3 Jazz -9 for 1.2% l
G3 Cleveland +5.5 for 1.2% l
****minus only- 14.6
+.91 G3 Tor/Orl under 204 for 1.0% w
G3 Jazz/Rox under 184.5 for .7% (hoping for 185+ and .8% on that) combined with G3 Jazz/Rox over 183 for 1.0% wagered earlier. l
G3 Jazz team total over 95.5 for 1.0% l
G3 Philadelphia/Detroit over 180 for 1.0% l
G4 Toronto -3 over Orlando for 1.0% l
+.91 G3 San Antonio +7 for 1.0% w
+.91 G3 NO/Dallas under 197 for 1.0% w
+.91 G3 Phil +6 for 1.0% w
G3 New Orleans +7 to -120 for .5% l
+1.81 G3 LA/Denver under 231,230 for 2.0% w
G3 Denver -1 for .7% same at -1.5 l
+.91 G3 Atlanta/Boston over 187.5 for 1.0% w
+.72 G4 Toronto/Orlando under 204 for .8% w
G4 Utah/Houston over 185.5 for 1.0% l
+.72 G4 Houston +9 for .8% w
ML +380 or more for .2% l
+.54 G4 Cleveland +5 for .6% w
+.54 G4 Phx/SA under 201 for .6% w
+.54 G4 New Orleans +5 for .6% w
G4 Philly at +6 for .8% l
G5 Toronto/Orlando over 203 for .6% l
+.91 G5 Orlando -7 for 1.0% w
+.91 G4 Boston/Atlanta over 188.5 for 1.0% w
G4 Denver 1st Q +1.5 for 1.5% l
+.91 G4 Denver/LA under 226 for 1.0% w
G5 New Orleans -6 for 1.2% l
G5 New Orleans/Dallas over 194 for .8% l
G5 Philadelphia +10 for 1.3% l
G5 Utah at +2 to -120 for .8% l
New Orleans -10.5 +185 for .2% l
total of 1.0% on G5 Spurs -5 p
+.64 G5 Spurs under 198 for .7% w
+.45 G5 Phil/Det over 177.5 for .5% w
G6 Philadelphia 1Q +1.5 for 1.0% l
G1 New Orleans/SA over 183.5 for 1.5% l
+1.36 G6 Cleveland +4 for 1.5% w
prop: who will win Western Conference?
Lakers vs Field. I'm hitting "Fields" up to around -170 for about 1.0% l
+1.27 G6 Atlanta +9 for 1.4% w
+.91 G6 Utah -7 for 1.0% w
+.09 Tau Ceramica/CSKA Moscow over 147 for .1% w
+.36 G1 SA/NO under 184.5 for .4% w
+1.36 G1 New Orleans -3 for 1.5% w
G1 Orlando +7 to -120 for 1.1% l
ML +270 for .4% l
G1 Orl/Det over 189 for .7% l
+.91 G2 SA/NO over 182 for 1.0% w
+2.27 G1 Cleveland +10 over Boston for 2.5% w
Cav ML +470 for .5% l
G2 Detroit/Orlando under 185 for 1.0% l
+1.09 adding .2% to G2 New Orleans -2.5, total of 1.2% w
*******adds +40.04, minus 35.1
+.54 G2 Detroit -6.5 over Orlando for .6% w
G3 Detroit +4 for 2.5% l
G2 Utah at +7 for 2.0% l
+1.09 G2 Lakers/Jazz over 210 for 1.2% w
G2 Cleveland +9 for 2.0% l
ML +370 for .5% l
+.54 G3 Detroit/Orlando over 187 for .6% w
G2 Jazz ML +260 or more for .4% l
prop: G3 Detroit -3.5 +230 for .2% l
G3 New Orleans +7 for 1.5% l
+1.36 G2 Cleveland/Boston under 178 for 1.5% w
G5 Boston/Cleveland under 176 for 1.0% l
+1.18 G5 Cleveland +9 for 1.3% w
ML +420 for .2% same at +400 l
+.91 G5 Utah +8.5 for 1.0% w
G5 Lakers/Utah under 212.5 for .5% l
G6 New Orleans +7 for 1.0% l
G6 New Orleans over 184 for .3% l
G7 New Orleans/SA 1st quarter over 46 for 1.5% l
+.54 G7 SA/NO 1st half over 91.5 for .6% w
G7 Hornets at -4 for .6% l
G1 Detroit +4.5 for 1.2% l
ML +170 for .4% l
G1 Detroit/Boston over 173.5 for .8% l
+1.00 G1 San Antonio 1st half +4 for 1.1% w
+.800 ML +200 for .4% w
G1 LA/SA over 195 for .6% l
+.72 G1 SA at +8 for .8% w
Series prop: Pistons/Celtics over 6.5 games +150 for .2% l
+.91 G2 Detroit at +5 for 1.0% w
+.525 ML +175 for .3% w
+1.36 total of 1.5% on G2 San Antonio under 194 w
G2 San Antonio +7 to -120 for 1.0% l
G2 SA ML +250 for .3% l
G2 SA 1st half +3.5 for .8% l
ML +170 for .3% l
+1.09 G6 Boston +5 for 1.2% w
+.760 ML +190 for .4% w
+1.81 adding .5% to G1 LA/Boston under at 193 for a total of 2.0% w
+1.09 G1 Boston -3 for 1.2% w
+1.36 adding .5% to Boston +1.5 games for a total of 1.5% w
exact series result: Boston wins 4-3 +425 for .5% l
hedging/middling a bit with G1 LAL/BOS over 191 for .6% l
+.82 adding to G1 Boston at -2 to -120 for .9% w
+1.18 G2 Boston at +2 to -120 for 2.0% w
G2 Boston under 191 for .8% l
+1.30 find +130 on Boston to win the Finals I would put 1.0% w
series prop: Will there be OT? yes +320 for .2% l
+.64 G3 Boston +9.5 for .7% w
G3 1Q Lakers -3 -110 for 1.0% l
G3 Boston/LA over 195.5 for .8% l
G3 prop: over 201.5 +180 for .4% l
G4 LA winning margin 4-6 +400 for .2% l
G4 " 7-9 +300 for .1% l
+.300 G4 Paul Pierce over 5 free throws made +100 for .3% w
+1.18 G4 Boston +8 to -120 for 1.3% w
+1.36 G5 Boston +7 for 1.5% w
+2.27 G6 Boston -4 for 2.5% w
66.675 -59.5losses.