NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

I didn't see a reason why game 2 plays out much differently than game 1, but I understand munson's pov. starting game 3, probably some big 2h bets. way ahead of time but I see g3 2h a big under bet.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I didn't pay much attention to halftime lines until recently when I saw you playing a lot of them, X. Seems the linesmakers are a little lazy, the vast majority of totals seem to just take half the game total and disregard the way the game is being played.:+clueless
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I didn't pay much attention to halftime lines until recently when I saw you playing a lot of them, X. Seems the linesmakers are a little lazy, the vast majority of totals seem to just take half the game total and disregard the way the game is being played.:+clueless
they get it all in the end. public is worse at 2nd halves than full games.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">05/20/09</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 106 - ORL 107</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 8.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 184</td> <td class="datacell"> 9.5 </td> <td class="datacell">43/88</td> <td class="datacell">43/78</td> <td class="datacell">33-36</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/03/09</td> <td class="datacell"> ORL 116 - CLE 87</td> <td class="datacell">ORL -3.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 187</td> <td class="datacell"> 25.5 </td> <td class="datacell">44/82</td> <td class="datacell">31/84</td> <td class="datacell">47-44</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">03/17/09</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 97 - ORL 93</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 6.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 191.5</td> <td class="datacell"> 2.5 </td> <td class="datacell">39/84</td> <td class="datacell">36/79</td> <td class="datacell">43-40</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">01/29/09</td> <td class="datacell"> ORL 99 - CLE 88</td> <td class="datacell">ORL -5</td> <td class="datacell">U 195</td> <td class="datacell"> 6.0 </td> <td class="datacell">36/80</td> <td class="datacell">34/82</td> <td class="datacell">48-39</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">04/05/08</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 86 - ORL 101</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 2.0</td> <td class="datacell">U 197</td> <td class="datacell"> 17.0 </td> <td class="datacell">34/88</td> <td class="datacell">36/77</td> <td class="datacell">48-33</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">03/17/08</td> <td class="datacell"> ORL 104 - CLE 90</td> <td class="datacell">ORL -6.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 203</td> <td class="datacell"> 7.5 </td> <td class="datacell">34/86</td> <td class="datacell">35/80</td> <td class="datacell">40-44</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">02/11/08</td> <td class="datacell"> ORL 111 - CLE 118</td> <td class="datacell">CLE 9.5</td> <td class="datacell">O 197.5</td> <td class="datacell"> 16.5 </td> <td class="datacell">41/85</td> <td class="datacell">38/71</td> <td class="datacell">41-41</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">11/14/07</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 116 - ORL 117 (OT)</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 3.0</td> <td class="datacell">O 191</td> <td class="datacell"> 4.0 </td> <td class="datacell">45/99</td> <td class="datacell">41/86</td> <td class="datacell">50-42</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">01/22/07</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 79 - ORL 90</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 4.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 182</td> <td class="datacell"> 15.5 </td> <td class="datacell">29/74</td> <td class="datacell">36/66</td> <td class="datacell">31-43</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">12/23/06</td> <td class="datacell"> CLE 86 - ORL 83</td> <td class="datacell">ORL 6.5</td> <td class="datacell">U 178.5</td> <td class="datacell"> 3.5 </td> <td class="datacell">34/85</td> <td class="datacell">30/69</td> <td class="datacell">51-39



</td></tr></tbody></table>

It's funny how they come up with 9 here. 9 wasn't right the first time but you gotta admire their tenacity..."stick-with-it-ness"

basically the same thing with Lakers/Denver yesterday and with game 3. I don't like the fact that Cleveland is down a game. I don't think that means the Cavs can name the score and the last 10 meetings is solid data IMO making this a no-brainer. Sure, Cleveland can win by 20+, but IMO there are a myriad of ways for the Magic to cover 9. In both conferences both teams are closer in competition that what the oddsmakers are telling us.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

game 1 was a bit of an anomaly with Orlando turning the ball over 13 times to Cleveland's 5, and with the rebounding about even. trips to the line was close, Cavs lost the game at the line with too many missed FT's. It was an anomaly because with those types of stats with that big of a turnover margin the home team usually wins by 3+. Orlando pulled the game out with 55% shooting. I don't like taking teams after they shoot 55%, but it's just too bizarre to get 9 points in the conference finals on a team that has won 7 of the last 10 vs. and lost by 9 or more in none of those meetings.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

This time I concur, the 55% Orlando shooting performance and the zig-zag theory are completely overwhelmed by what we saw on the court Wednesday and by the past history you illustrated. I know you don't care for the zig-zag, but I believe the line is high in part because of it, and we can take advantage of that here. Thanks and GL.:cheers

p.s. Pinnacle gives +9.5 on the dropdown at -110, and Skybook is offering the free 1/2 point tonight which can also get you to 9.5.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I'm surprised that in this situation in the series, 0-1 for the Cavs, that points are not at more of a premium. I think it indicates that the game(s) are being played at Orlando's pace more than Cleveland's. Pre-game, I figured that Cleveland's effort in game 2 would exhibit itself on the defensive end, and that they would be a little tight on the other end being in a 'must' game. Wrong again.:doh1
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Hello, i signed here just yesterday. I was following these topics ,especially ATX topic for 2-3 weeks. And last two games, when Den & Orl played back from -15pts and covered hc i thought that i need to sign-in on eog.com ,and say how great picks were here. Thanks ATX,Muson,Coin and even Gyno :)
And good luck to You in future.

about G3 , isnt time for Den to take a home win? Or maybe refs will try to make LAL victory just for safety,because Gasol and other jerks can't win game clearly and when thay are in stress situation? Billups and Carmelo seems good ,Carm is passing and taking game on himself at the same time. Will he make a crazy shots even when its not needed? My thougts that they must cover hc for todays game...

P.S. Sorry,for my english , i come from Easter-Europe,but will improve it for sure :)
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Denver is 12-0 or more ATS. they have finally been over-valued. I think Denver could blow out LA and I agree the place will be frenzied, but Denver should not be laying more than 2 points IMO. this late in the season the number comes in more often than the situation. If Denver does blow out LA I will probably take LA for more in game 4 getting 3/4. Orlando giving 1' to Cleveland is also a bad #. should be -2/2' for Cleveland. the amount I put on each bet is determined by how much I think the situation affects the number. For instance, I really liked Orlando +9, and if Cleveland had won game 1 I would have probably shoved 4-5%. Cavs lost game one so one has to figure they are coming out strong in game two which takes away from the dog since Cavs allowed a comeback in game one. all water under the bridge now, but that is what I'm doing until the final game. I am betting bad numbers, but the amount is determined by the situation surrounding the numbers. probably makes little sense.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Hello, i signed here just yesterday. I was following these topics ,especially ATX topic for 2-3 weeks. And last two games, when Den & Orl played back from -15pts and covered hc i thought that i need to sign-in on eog.com ,and say how great picks were here. Thanks ATX,Muson,Coin and even Gyno :)
And good luck to You in future.

about G3 , isnt time for Den to take a home win? Or maybe refs will try to make LAL victory just for safety,because Gasol and other jerks can't win game clearly and when thay are in stress situation? Billups and Carmelo seems good ,Carm is passing and taking game on himself at the same time. Will he make a crazy shots even when its not needed? My thougts that they must cover hc for todays game...

P.S. Sorry,for my english , i come from Easter-Europe,but will improve it for sure :)
Welcome to EOG, and thanks for sharing your thoughts. I hope X doesn't mind me playing ambassador in his thread.:+textinb3
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Cleveland just got a LOT stronger.
Would love to hear you elaborate on this point. I know the G3 line is out of whack because you can't move it 10.5 points for a change in venue, but Orlando seems to have an answer for everything the Cavs do, except they can't handle James physically. Orlando looks like a gathering storm over the Cleveland hope to end their title drought of 45 years (1964 Browns).
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Denver is 12-0 or more ATS. they have finally been over-valued. I think Denver could blow out LA and I agree the place will be frenzied, but Denver should not be laying more than 2 points IMO. this late in the season the number comes in more often than the situation. If Denver does blow out LA I will probably take LA for more in game 4 getting 3/4. Orlando giving 1' to Cleveland is also a bad #. should be -2/2' for Cleveland. the amount I put on each bet is determined by how much I think the situation affects the number. For instance, I really liked Orlando +9, and if Cleveland had won game 1 I would have probably shoved 4-5%. Cavs lost game one so one has to figure they are coming out strong in game two which takes away from the dog since Cavs allowed a comeback in game one. all water under the bridge now, but that is what I'm doing until the final game. I am betting bad numbers, but the amount is determined by the situation surrounding the numbers. probably makes little sense.
Makes total sense, the situation in the series certainly affects the line (or at least it should) and obviously ratchets up the pressure and urgency to win for one side or the other. I can't see a defensive answer on the LA side for Billups, and at home, I think Anthony almost cancels out Bryant. Going to be very interesting the next couple of days as each series shifts sites.

p.s. LA +4 now available.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Would love to hear you elaborate on this point. I know the G3 line is out of whack because you can't move it 10.5 points for a change in venue, but Orlando seems to have an answer for everything the Cavs do, except they can't handle James physically. Orlando looks like a gathering storm over the Cleveland hope to end their title drought of 45 years (1964 Browns).
I'm a firm believer in "what doesn't kill ya makes ya stronger."

Orlando matches up well with Cleveland. I also think that the Cavs easy road to the conference finals has had something to do with the Magic's success. Cleveland has still lost just one playoff game and Orlando has been outplayed in both contests when you look at minutes/possessions with lead. Those Magic comebacks usually fall short and I'm not sure that Orlando plays well with a lead, lots of pressure on them now. Also, that series going 7 games with Boston is going to start showing IMO. The further this series goes, the more I like Cleveland's defense to take control. Those 3's won't fall every game and Orlando is just one missed shot away from being 0-2 (as are the Cavs).
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks, and GL, it looks like you're forecasting a small Nugget win.
those missed FT's....

not much on 2h I like.
106 is too much, but I already have a much better number so have to pass, ditto on spread.

small .5% on 2h LA -4 +190, in-game ML, I think LA pulls it off something like 4 out of 10.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I think it's a good idea to take +2 with Cleveland. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line move to 1.
2 is an important number, I know. Was tempted to go ML, but there's no value there, can't even find +110. Tells me that they fear CLE.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

2 is an important number, I know. Was tempted to go ML, but there's no value there, can't even find +110. Tells me that they fear CLE.
Cavs are still close to -300 for the series. If you think that Cleveland is less than a 9 point favorite at home, which we can be fairly certain of, there's really no reason for Cleveland to be a dog. A high percentage of the time this game 3 is going to be a 1 or 2 point game. My line is Cleveland -2, I think +2 comes in over 60%. I also think this game goes under. I am waiting for the 2nd half for that. That 7 games with Boston, that fatigue should start making it's presence known. I'm not saying Orlando doesn't have a chance, I just think it's a +125 chance not a -125 chance. Before all big bets I like to work into my 12 pack a little, helps with the how much side of things.
 
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