NBA for opening week
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ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
the last game I would bet on of all these, and I'm LOL.
but I am horrible I mean horrible with the Clippers over ten years. Somehow I've made some money off them this year, but I was very sure about what I got down on. I will say that I don't think Denver is a good enough road team to lay 4 with against almost anyone. Except maybe the Clippers, HA! And Denver shot almost 55% last game. I tend to think that the new players tend to struggle more on defense, but the total seems to be adjusted for that or previous meetings. I was real close to taking LAC here but after all this time off who knows how they perform.
the last game I would bet on of all these, and I'm LOL.
but I am horrible I mean horrible with the Clippers over ten years. Somehow I've made some money off them this year, but I was very sure about what I got down on. I will say that I don't think Denver is a good enough road team to lay 4 with against almost anyone. Except maybe the Clippers, HA! And Denver shot almost 55% last game. I tend to think that the new players tend to struggle more on defense, but the total seems to be adjusted for that or previous meetings. I was real close to taking LAC here but after all this time off who knows how they perform.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Y, I can't see any defensive skeem's for the Clips with the newbies, and the offense should just be a generic pass and shoot type of game. That said, not sure if Denver can control the pace of the game or Clippers, if the Clips, then even with the adjusted line it seems high.
Y, I can't see any defensive skeem's for the Clips with the newbies, and the offense should just be a generic pass and shoot type of game. That said, not sure if Denver can control the pace of the game or Clippers, if the Clips, then even with the adjusted line it seems high.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
hope you won on the Clippers. too many differing aspects for me to come to much of a conclusion y-day, but it looks like they put that total high for a reason. another terrible night for me, the losing should continue.
Denver pk for .7%
yes Denver is on a B2B, but they have done well in that spot. I guess the public is over-reacting to their loss on the LAC cover last night by fading the Nuggets here. New Orleans is a decent road team, but Denver is a very good home team. NO is off the sewage circuit with 2 vs OKC, the LAC, after meeting SAC. Their shooting % has been quite high during that tour, and I don't think they have paid the law of averages back yet for the 40/74 2 games ago. In fact 40/81 then 40/74 then 40/81 which are quite a bit higher than their shooting % before that. Some of it was the teams they played, but I think the step up in competition hurts them. NO's schedule has also been a bit strange. They haven't had a game after 2 days rest this year. They have had 4 periods of 3 or more days of rest and they are 0-4 ATS in the game after each.
hope you won on the Clippers. too many differing aspects for me to come to much of a conclusion y-day, but it looks like they put that total high for a reason. another terrible night for me, the losing should continue.
Denver pk for .7%
yes Denver is on a B2B, but they have done well in that spot. I guess the public is over-reacting to their loss on the LAC cover last night by fading the Nuggets here. New Orleans is a decent road team, but Denver is a very good home team. NO is off the sewage circuit with 2 vs OKC, the LAC, after meeting SAC. Their shooting % has been quite high during that tour, and I don't think they have paid the law of averages back yet for the 40/74 2 games ago. In fact 40/81 then 40/74 then 40/81 which are quite a bit higher than their shooting % before that. Some of it was the teams they played, but I think the step up in competition hurts them. NO's schedule has also been a bit strange. They haven't had a game after 2 days rest this year. They have had 4 periods of 3 or more days of rest and they are 0-4 ATS in the game after each.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Same old question, any take on the Clip game tonight.
Same old question, any take on the Clip game tonight.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
no. I looked at it. then ripped my eyes from my sockets. the clippers are always bad but this year...wow. the opening # of -1 is usually to try to fool the public into thinking the team that is favored by only one should actually be favored at all. good luck with that one with the LAC. Not going to put $ on the road heat either. books probably figure the LAC are about due to win and Miami is a decent candidate. probably a couple thousand games easier to read for me. pass.
no. I looked at it. then ripped my eyes from my sockets. the clippers are always bad but this year...wow. the opening # of -1 is usually to try to fool the public into thinking the team that is favored by only one should actually be favored at all. good luck with that one with the LAC. Not going to put $ on the road heat either. books probably figure the LAC are about due to win and Miami is a decent candidate. probably a couple thousand games easier to read for me. pass.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
tx
tx
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm pretty pissed off that I didn't go with my instinct and completely unload on the NY 2h over. I've seen a lot of 2h's and not saying that this one was any sort of halftime record, but in recent history there have been very few 2h's like this. And that 2h line was a joke, they were asking for a regression of over 35 points. I tend to bet into regressions at the half but mainly based on fg%s or 3pters and usually from a continuation based on previous games. Reminds me of another 2nd half in the first bowl game of the year in 2004 or 5 maybe. I think it was Marshall or Memphis and one team was down by about 30 points at the half, 2h line was less than a TD and these weren't strong defensive teams. I put a lot on the losing team and they ended up coming back and winning SU, but this NY 2h reminded me a lot of that one, just a bad line b/c they are stuck in their mechanical systems. Oh well, the losing continues.
I'm pretty pissed off that I didn't go with my instinct and completely unload on the NY 2h over. I've seen a lot of 2h's and not saying that this one was any sort of halftime record, but in recent history there have been very few 2h's like this. And that 2h line was a joke, they were asking for a regression of over 35 points. I tend to bet into regressions at the half but mainly based on fg%s or 3pters and usually from a continuation based on previous games. Reminds me of another 2nd half in the first bowl game of the year in 2004 or 5 maybe. I think it was Marshall or Memphis and one team was down by about 30 points at the half, 2h line was less than a TD and these weren't strong defensive teams. I put a lot on the losing team and they ended up coming back and winning SU, but this NY 2h reminded me a lot of that one, just a bad line b/c they are stuck in their mechanical systems. Oh well, the losing continues.
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Whats the # for the regression or is there any magic # in general
Whats the # for the regression or is there any magic # in general
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
varies. 4-5 years ago I hired a couple math engineers to create a mechanical system out of my madness or process, whatever. to basically take the thought process out of the equation or more like an attempt to quantify qualitative data (logic such as betting into injuries, new coaches but with more definite numbers). At the time I was very big on eliminating streaks b/c it screws with psychology, psychology is huge within thought process, when the thought process is cloudy it really hurts the hold%. It took a lot of time and effort to try to explain how the sports market works and in the end I wouldn't say it was a failure in that I learned a lot, but I figured out (playing poker helped solidify my logic here as well) that a completely mechanical system isn't optimal. I've always kind of thought of the sports market #s as more of a window, a set of parameters that I subconsciously attach a degree of probability to. In other words, I think that Orlando is within 6-8 points of Boston about 60% of the time and wins SU over 35% in this spot. But there are discounts. Boston with revenge, and Orlando with injuries. But now I've talked myself into going back for a little more, there's not much else to discount b/c both teams are on a pretty good winning streak, and I'm wary b/c of my current streak.
added .3% to ORL +9, total of 1.4%
added .1% to ORL +425, total of .4%
varies. 4-5 years ago I hired a couple math engineers to create a mechanical system out of my madness or process, whatever. to basically take the thought process out of the equation or more like an attempt to quantify qualitative data (logic such as betting into injuries, new coaches but with more definite numbers). At the time I was very big on eliminating streaks b/c it screws with psychology, psychology is huge within thought process, when the thought process is cloudy it really hurts the hold%. It took a lot of time and effort to try to explain how the sports market works and in the end I wouldn't say it was a failure in that I learned a lot, but I figured out (playing poker helped solidify my logic here as well) that a completely mechanical system isn't optimal. I've always kind of thought of the sports market #s as more of a window, a set of parameters that I subconsciously attach a degree of probability to. In other words, I think that Orlando is within 6-8 points of Boston about 60% of the time and wins SU over 35% in this spot. But there are discounts. Boston with revenge, and Orlando with injuries. But now I've talked myself into going back for a little more, there's not much else to discount b/c both teams are on a pretty good winning streak, and I'm wary b/c of my current streak.
added .3% to ORL +9, total of 1.4%
added .1% to ORL +425, total of .4%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
so anyways. with that engineering endeavor (basically a reverse engineering project but not concerned with the sportsbook's numbers so much as trying to quantify the logic behind my conclusions such as coming up with "window of +8to+10, degree of certainty 58%", vs line of +7.5 -105 ) what I learned was that one of the main reasons that I've had success is that I'm able to change or adapt very quickly (at least that was what I've been told by several people) The books can only change their numbers on a team so quickly in order to keep the action somewhat balanced, what they do wins over time, for them. It also helps to be able to formulate an opinion very quickly, when something starts to move you have to have a good idea about where it will end up and if it's the right side quickly or you will lose a lot of value. I'm not good at writing today, so I'll stop.
To answer your question, there isn't a definite regressive number or percentage, it varies by team, and it's all a percentage. There are pretty good angles based on regression, and I do have some stuff that if I ever have time to db would probably be quantifiable as greater than 53% over time and going forward, 2nd halves for sure.
take a look at NCAA basketball Idaho. Talk about regression, ck out their fg% by game this year...
so anyways. with that engineering endeavor (basically a reverse engineering project but not concerned with the sportsbook's numbers so much as trying to quantify the logic behind my conclusions such as coming up with "window of +8to+10, degree of certainty 58%", vs line of +7.5 -105 ) what I learned was that one of the main reasons that I've had success is that I'm able to change or adapt very quickly (at least that was what I've been told by several people) The books can only change their numbers on a team so quickly in order to keep the action somewhat balanced, what they do wins over time, for them. It also helps to be able to formulate an opinion very quickly, when something starts to move you have to have a good idea about where it will end up and if it's the right side quickly or you will lose a lot of value. I'm not good at writing today, so I'll stop.
To answer your question, there isn't a definite regressive number or percentage, it varies by team, and it's all a percentage. There are pretty good angles based on regression, and I do have some stuff that if I ever have time to db would probably be quantifiable as greater than 53% over time and going forward, 2nd halves for sure.
take a look at NCAA basketball Idaho. Talk about regression, ck out their fg% by game this year...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
finally, a losing day. now I feel more comfortable opening things up a bit. better yet, a little prolonged losing would help. I think I had 1 maybe 2 losing weeks in NCAA football, 1 losing week in NFL, there may have been another but just can't remember, I'll have to check. first one over 2.0% to lose in a long, long time. sounds crazy? not with bowl season coming up, some years it's better than NBA playoffs, lots better. the lines in that subset are usually made more to beat the public, not the sharps, or at least a lot of them are or end up that way.
NY/Portland over 212 for 1.1%
finally, a losing day. now I feel more comfortable opening things up a bit. better yet, a little prolonged losing would help. I think I had 1 maybe 2 losing weeks in NCAA football, 1 losing week in NFL, there may have been another but just can't remember, I'll have to check. first one over 2.0% to lose in a long, long time. sounds crazy? not with bowl season coming up, some years it's better than NBA playoffs, lots better. the lines in that subset are usually made more to beat the public, not the sharps, or at least a lot of them are or end up that way.
NY/Portland over 212 for 1.1%
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Interesting, the adapt or change very quickly has me wondering what part moves, is it the quantified measure of your understanding of the line, or is it simply the "inner you" who has the ability to process the change quickly and respond at or above the 57%.
Interesting, the adapt or change very quickly has me wondering what part moves, is it the quantified measure of your understanding of the line, or is it simply the "inner you" who has the ability to process the change quickly and respond at or above the 57%.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm not very good at explaining this type of stuff. The main reason I post is so I can go back and read some of it later. I remember later what I was I thinking when I post SA over 185, but trying to write it all out...I struggle on a lot of them. SA over 185 isn't too complex, I just see SA/Det as a bit different teams than their previous meetings which has this total a little too low. Plus both are off somewhat bad shooting nights, SA esp. and generally that tends to even out somewhat in the next game, throw in the fact that the median should be high 180's and I think that overcomes the obvious trend to the under from their previous meetings. I think that with AI and Mason the game is different enough than all the previous meetings to go over than with Chauncey.
The correlations I recognize subconsciously trump everything. I don't know about 57%, I don't care about percentages, they screw with your head too much. And I don't flat bet, so it would have to be some sort of "star" system, that doesn't necessarily calculate a true win%, waste of time. I track money. I do know how bets over 1.5% are going, especially ones over 2.1% b/c if they aren't above 60% then something has changed. It's a bad idea to want to hit over 55%, if you are hitting over 55% you aren't betting enough games, it's more profitable to spread the knowledge overlay of say your 57% winners around a little to games you may have passed on, but apparently it's harder for most people than in theory. If you do a spreadsheet with 57% winners and 54% winners vs volume it's apparent which way to go (adding dog moneylines nearly always put a 57% winner back to a 56% or less winner with much higher volume and a huge increase in ROI) I do track BR% won from time to time, but whenever I get around the +20% mark for a sport little sirens start going off saying 'WARNING!WARNING! I'm adept at designing systems, and they are consistent but to a point. There's a lot of money to be made, but people tend to think it's to be made quickly, they don't view this in terms of a 401K (which I don't really know much about myself, except what I learned in college).
To answer your question, I'd say it's both. As the season goes along further and more numbers come in, I'm better at predicting the exact spread. The ones that jump out as being off, those 57%ers that I subconsciously peg, they are still around. I don't see it as an ability, I'm not very good, because I can ONLY find events that come in FAR less than 100% of the time. I'm decent at finding numbers that come in about 55% of the time, but that's to be expected, why else would I do this? I've always been a good guesser, I was bored and took one of those personality/ability tests and it came out as "visual mathemetician." What I'm really good at is guessing people's birthdays. When I was drunk at some neighborhood bars watching Texas on a few of their road games I would wander up to girls and ice-breaker of I bet you were born on August 17...and her response "who told you?" "Nobody. I'm a fire sign too, knew you were a Leo." No idea how I came up with the 17th, some sort of impulse. But I bet the rest of her table that I could guess all 3 of their signs in 2 guesses apiece or less. I don't know much about the zodiac, but I do see correlations across the population with some of the signs, guessed all of them in 4. Kinda weird, if you know the odds of that. There's a difference between a number coming in a certain percentage of the time and a game LANDING on a number a certain percentage of the time, and the further into a season the more accurately predicted the latter becomes and that ties into things quite a bit, for me anyways. Not much idea what I was talking about but I do like
Lakers under 214 for 1.3%
I'm not very good at explaining this type of stuff. The main reason I post is so I can go back and read some of it later. I remember later what I was I thinking when I post SA over 185, but trying to write it all out...I struggle on a lot of them. SA over 185 isn't too complex, I just see SA/Det as a bit different teams than their previous meetings which has this total a little too low. Plus both are off somewhat bad shooting nights, SA esp. and generally that tends to even out somewhat in the next game, throw in the fact that the median should be high 180's and I think that overcomes the obvious trend to the under from their previous meetings. I think that with AI and Mason the game is different enough than all the previous meetings to go over than with Chauncey.
The correlations I recognize subconsciously trump everything. I don't know about 57%, I don't care about percentages, they screw with your head too much. And I don't flat bet, so it would have to be some sort of "star" system, that doesn't necessarily calculate a true win%, waste of time. I track money. I do know how bets over 1.5% are going, especially ones over 2.1% b/c if they aren't above 60% then something has changed. It's a bad idea to want to hit over 55%, if you are hitting over 55% you aren't betting enough games, it's more profitable to spread the knowledge overlay of say your 57% winners around a little to games you may have passed on, but apparently it's harder for most people than in theory. If you do a spreadsheet with 57% winners and 54% winners vs volume it's apparent which way to go (adding dog moneylines nearly always put a 57% winner back to a 56% or less winner with much higher volume and a huge increase in ROI) I do track BR% won from time to time, but whenever I get around the +20% mark for a sport little sirens start going off saying 'WARNING!WARNING! I'm adept at designing systems, and they are consistent but to a point. There's a lot of money to be made, but people tend to think it's to be made quickly, they don't view this in terms of a 401K (which I don't really know much about myself, except what I learned in college).
To answer your question, I'd say it's both. As the season goes along further and more numbers come in, I'm better at predicting the exact spread. The ones that jump out as being off, those 57%ers that I subconsciously peg, they are still around. I don't see it as an ability, I'm not very good, because I can ONLY find events that come in FAR less than 100% of the time. I'm decent at finding numbers that come in about 55% of the time, but that's to be expected, why else would I do this? I've always been a good guesser, I was bored and took one of those personality/ability tests and it came out as "visual mathemetician." What I'm really good at is guessing people's birthdays. When I was drunk at some neighborhood bars watching Texas on a few of their road games I would wander up to girls and ice-breaker of I bet you were born on August 17...and her response "who told you?" "Nobody. I'm a fire sign too, knew you were a Leo." No idea how I came up with the 17th, some sort of impulse. But I bet the rest of her table that I could guess all 3 of their signs in 2 guesses apiece or less. I don't know much about the zodiac, but I do see correlations across the population with some of the signs, guessed all of them in 4. Kinda weird, if you know the odds of that. There's a difference between a number coming in a certain percentage of the time and a game LANDING on a number a certain percentage of the time, and the further into a season the more accurately predicted the latter becomes and that ties into things quite a bit, for me anyways. Not much idea what I was talking about but I do like
Lakers under 214 for 1.3%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
NJ too many points but Wash sucks, -5.5 is a line for a fave
Portland ditto, they could win or lose by 20, I don't feel like guessing, I'd rather look at the 2nd half
Lakers too many points but start of a road trip, they pretty much name the score right now vs 70% of teams.
Clippers/Dallas yeah right, rather eat some gravel, should go over.
Philly should win SU, the books are counting on it, but the same 2 teams B2B angle has been HORRIBLE this year (one team covers, the opposite in the B2B game)
SA too many points for a team that wasn't even favored at home not too long ago, but Parker is back and Detroit may wake up here but looks to be going thru the motions or adjusting to life with out Bill.
entire free world is on Utah, both sharps and squares, very strange opener that books may win.
denver. I almost never bet into teams that open 6.5, that is a number for dogs. not sold on Tor esp with less than 7 right now
NJ too many points but Wash sucks, -5.5 is a line for a fave
Portland ditto, they could win or lose by 20, I don't feel like guessing, I'd rather look at the 2nd half
Lakers too many points but start of a road trip, they pretty much name the score right now vs 70% of teams.
Clippers/Dallas yeah right, rather eat some gravel, should go over.
Philly should win SU, the books are counting on it, but the same 2 teams B2B angle has been HORRIBLE this year (one team covers, the opposite in the B2B game)
SA too many points for a team that wasn't even favored at home not too long ago, but Parker is back and Detroit may wake up here but looks to be going thru the motions or adjusting to life with out Bill.
entire free world is on Utah, both sharps and squares, very strange opener that books may win.
denver. I almost never bet into teams that open 6.5, that is a number for dogs. not sold on Tor esp with less than 7 right now
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EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Appreciate you taking the time to discuss these issues.
Appreciate you taking the time to discuss these issues.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I completely missed the boat yesterday. Not so much b/c of what I took but what I didn't take with 2 big dogs winning SU and complete debacle of not taking Utah large. I have been spending too much time analyzing which leads to tunnel vision, missing the big picture. If history serves, this should be a 3-4 day losing streak for me.
Min/Orl under 197 for .7%
I completely missed the boat yesterday. Not so much b/c of what I took but what I didn't take with 2 big dogs winning SU and complete debacle of not taking Utah large. I have been spending too much time analyzing which leads to tunnel vision, missing the big picture. If history serves, this should be a 3-4 day losing streak for me.
Min/Orl under 197 for .7%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Memphis should shoot poorly, not sure which way to go with it, full game under, team total under, don't really want to count on ATL to win by 9.
Charlotte/OKC under 192 for 1.1%
3rd highest total for Cha all year, Cha has gone over this total only once at home and 2 other times (at NY, Indi no surprises there), Bobcats are a strong home under team and a lot of it has to do with their Brown style of almost basketball. They are favored by more than a touchdown (feel they should cover by a late FG) which indicates they should control the pace of the game. The x-factor is of course the 'City'. Kevin Durant and his sooner sisters probably give up the highest fg% in the NBA. But they probably shoot the lowest. But not lately. OKC has shot over 50% their last 2 games which is well above their season average of 41.9 and that has contributed to a total I feel is a minimum 5 points off. I don't like messing with OKC too much, but I've done OK with them this year and had them SU over Memphis. Rest shouldn't be too much of a factor. The totals for OKC on the road are fairly high, but that is in part b/c they haven't really played a defensive team outside their sister-kissin collosseum save Houston (77-89). I don't see why the final score shouldn't be more like one of Charlotte's other home games. Pick one.
Memphis should shoot poorly, not sure which way to go with it, full game under, team total under, don't really want to count on ATL to win by 9.
Charlotte/OKC under 192 for 1.1%
3rd highest total for Cha all year, Cha has gone over this total only once at home and 2 other times (at NY, Indi no surprises there), Bobcats are a strong home under team and a lot of it has to do with their Brown style of almost basketball. They are favored by more than a touchdown (feel they should cover by a late FG) which indicates they should control the pace of the game. The x-factor is of course the 'City'. Kevin Durant and his sooner sisters probably give up the highest fg% in the NBA. But they probably shoot the lowest. But not lately. OKC has shot over 50% their last 2 games which is well above their season average of 41.9 and that has contributed to a total I feel is a minimum 5 points off. I don't like messing with OKC too much, but I've done OK with them this year and had them SU over Memphis. Rest shouldn't be too much of a factor. The totals for OKC on the road are fairly high, but that is in part b/c they haven't really played a defensive team outside their sister-kissin collosseum save Houston (77-89). I don't see why the final score shouldn't be more like one of Charlotte's other home games. Pick one.