Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

Good to see you're listening to Fauci, he's been saying there will be a second wave that will hit either late this year, or early next year
Everyone says that, there will likely be a 3rd wave the following year, that's how virus's work. I did hear some clarification - the estimates of 40-70% of people catching the virus is over all 3 waves, meaning this one will be "not that bad" maybe 15-20% penetration.

Does that make everyone feel better?
 
Almost to SquarePants # of 90.000 cases.

Rail will probably have the lead for 4 to 5 more days.

On a somewhat morbid note, next on the horizon, Squarepants will take the lead at 2,219 deaths or more.
 
Last edited:
What happened to millions? Whole thing is a fucking scam. I was wrong on #'s but right on script. We are very close to leveling. This will be like every other literally shaking Trump scandal. Will end abruptly and be forgotten quickly. If I had to guess again, 425,000 and 3000. Maybe fucking 4,250,000 or 42,500,000. It's a very contagious but not exceptionally lethal new strain of the Kung Flu. Once a vaccine is developed, gone boy. Bozo Boris Johnson has it. He'll be fine.
 
Easter is going to turn into a MAGA celebration and all of Trump's haters are going to become unhinged that he is comparing himself to Jesus. Most of them atheists anyway so it will be fake outrage. Trump will always win because God loves Trump. You can't beat that.
 
U.S. case count now has surpassed my top 90,000 number, fatalities still thankfully lower than my 2,500 estimate for that number of cases . . .

92,206 CONFIRMED CASES
1,371 DEATHS
 
If I have culled this correctly from prior posts, new COVID-19 fatalities in U.S. over the past five days, in reverse chrono order (measured somewhat imprecisely at roughly midday):

+341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112

Markets, epidemics and other natural phenomena of course rarely move, increase, decrease, etc., etc., etc. in a straight line, especially in short timeframes.
 
UNITED STATES
105,726 CONFIRMED CASES
1,730 DEATHS

I reckon so, Rail.

Bob had you in the lead until about 2219 on the bottom number, and being this close on the top number certainly doesn't hurt.

Maybe they'll find the miracle instant cure today and you can lock in the win.
 
Here are the entries re-ordered from fewest total cases to most

Dell Dude: 55,555/777
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
EJD 550,000/7,500
ComptrBob: 590,000/3,100
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Abundy: 2,000,000/2,000
Juan Marichal: 3,500,000/350,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
mr merlin: 6,300,000/770,000
bomzee: 8,686,868/86,868
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
yisman: 45,000,000/842,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
 
You guys need to stop looking at the death rate, it's not real, most of the recent positives have not had time to die, the rate in the US will go much higher and be more in line with the norm - 5% or so.
Merlin, and perhaps others, this thread ostensibly tracks wagers that by definition were placed based on the official numbers, and really only for the US; it's not really a theoretical discussion of, e.g., questions of whether the numbers are real, etc.

Meanwhile, during my cardio workout, the top number pushed past Rail's case number:

UNITED STATES
112,560 CONFIRMED CASES
1,878 DEATHS
 
Merlin, and perhaps others, this thread ostensibly tracks wagers that by definition were placed based on the official numbers, and really only for the US; it's not really a theoretical discussion of, e.g., questions of whether the numbers are real, etc.

Meanwhile, during my cardio workout, the top number pushed past Rail's case number:

UNITED STATES
112,560 CONFIRMED CASES
1,878 DEATHS
We'll be looking at a million cases at least by may 1
 
Oh, and I ran long -- things to do -- with the midday day-over-day comparison.

UNITED STATES
117,903 CONFIRMED CASES
1,964 DEATHS (+487)

Recapping in reverse chrono: +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
 
Top