Random notes and thoughts

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Just spent some time in Atlantic City and PA casinos on business. Seems like sports betting goes like this

Black guys - bet on the kiosk
Old white guys - bet at the window
Younger white guys - betting on the app
Asian guys - where in the fuck are they? Do they ever leave the Bac table?

Is it profiling if it's true?
 
“The cost of missing something”
Stumbled on this today and immediately thought of baseball handicapping with predictive models.
Good discussion of assigning values to big data and thick data in business forecasts.
Key takeaway “In science, when human behavior enters the equation, things go nonlinear.
That's why Physics is easy and Sociology is hard.”

 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Gotta wonder if the Angels wouldn’t be a great fade for the rest of the season. The emotion from Skaggs is over, and they are showing that they are basically a .500 team. In the last 5 days, they lost 4 to Balt and Detroit at home.
 
"Michigan wins ten with their eyes closed"

---


"He can't even beat shit teams like MSU when they have an offense that couldn't score against a pee wee team"
 
Free money for the taking:

Michigan State over 7.5 regular season wins +100 (SIA), -130 (bet365).

Michigan State under 7.5 regular season wins +158 (Pinnacle).

Sherwood's writeup & the "Pinnacle lean" say to take the over 7.5 +100. Was +105 @ bet365 a few days ago.

BTW Pinnacle isn't the only book with a big + number on the under. And other books probably have + money on the over.
 
a little known fact most people don't know even those who live here in my hometown of Winnipeg... Winnipeg named slurpee capital of the world 19 years in a row. Winnipegers buy on average 188,000 slurpees a month.
I'm guessing that doesn't apply to Nov-March, which must be icy cold in Winnipeg. Nothing like a big Slurpee when its ten below zero.
 
Wrote this for SportsbookReview back on Feb. 11, 2017 but unsure if they ever published. A good spot for it here and Random Thoughts a great thread idea:
Sports Handicapping Philosophies: The Artists vs. The Scientists


Sports Handicapping Styles Vary From The Artists to The Scientists

Sports gamblers walk the delicate balance of weighing Art against Science in any given handicap and it often seems that the more one blends those two and remembers to focus on the sports he or she is best at, the better they end up doing in the long run. Let’s look at the surface waters of this concept often ignored more by the perceived Artists getting involved in the difficult sports betting arena.

Being a Slave to Either Handicapping Style Can Stunt Winning Long-Term
Both recreational and professional sports gamblers employ and evolve their own specific styles of betting through the years with some balance—or imbalance—of Art and Science making up their own personal betting styles.


The pure Artist may rely on the emotional and human elements of a handicap as well as situational analysis, like placing a certain amount of mental weight on the motivation the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (+484 to win Super Bowl 52, 5Dimes) had from the Deflategate situation. Did that perceived anger help Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Pats become NFL champs? The Artist would say it did.


Sports gamblers who are more Scientist obviously lean heavily on technicals and the numbers and often have their own Power Rankings and models for sports they handicap. And they all know the importance of always looking for the best number and are aware of all Injuries, things like Pace and often what other so-called Wiseguys in their circles are doing and thinking.

One stat NFL gamblers have seemingly fallen in love with in recent seasons—maybe to their own peril—is Yards Per Play (ypp). And relying too much on that metric can be deceiving as the #2 YPP team was the Redskins (6.4 ypp) while the #31 was the Texans (4.7 ypp). Houston (40/1 to win Super Bowl 52, 5Dimes) made the Postseason while Washington (66/1 to win Super Bowl 52, Bovada) watched.

Some Thoughts on Art vs. Science From Esteemed Sports Gambler Computer Bob
The dean of Las Vegas sports gambling talk radio John Kelly talked a little on this subject with renowned sports gambler Bob Eichenlaub, nicknamed Computer Bob [ComptrBob], on “The EOG Sports Hour” on Feb 1. “Many times the Artists let their biases rule,” the former Microsoft consultant and math whiz said. “They cite the ‘Eye Test’ and they cite all of the strange things which may or may not give them an advantage. A lot of times they can’t quantify it. They are led astray a lot more often than the Math guys.”


Kelly had a sage observation about extreme sports betting Artists and Scientists.


“It seems like the Artist—the guy that knows the coaches and players—aren’t always good with the Math of the bet,” he offered. “And then the scientists—the guys good with the numbers, good with the Math—often times can’t figure out the players and coaches.”

And whether more Artist or Scientist, a bettors’ final decision whether or not to bet on a specific game as well as the specific amount are huge things not talked about enough in the sports betting world. Fine tuning those two aspects are just as important as trying to achieve a decent balance of Art and Science this ever-growing activity often barren of real significant edges for the players of late.

“There’s not a lot of true value in the industry, ” Computer Bob said.
 
"Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….


13) Looking at Week 1 of the NFL which is only five weeks away, there are four games with a spread of 7+ points. The question occurred to me, how do favorites of 7+ points do in Week 1 of the NFL? So I looked it up.


Last six years, 16 teams have been favored by 7+ points in Week 1; those teams went 4-11-1 vs spread. Last three years, Week 1 favorites of 7+ are just 6-4 SU.


Since 2009, in Week 1 games with a spread of 7+ points, over is 18-12-1.


12) Week 1 favorites of 7+ points this year:
— Eagles (-9) vs Washington
— Seahawks (-9.5) vs Cincinnati
— Cowboys (-7.5) vs NY Giants
— Saints (-7) vs Houston "
 
Re Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts:

"Werts, the team’s starting quarterback, was allegedly going to be pulled over for speeding by Saluda, South Carolina, police. After reportedly calling police to say he wanted to keep going and pull over in a more well-lit area, he did pull over. And that’s where police allegedly found a substance on the hood of his car that Werts said was bird poop.

Per police, the substance tested positive for cocaine. Werts has been charged with a misdemeanor for cocaine possession.

...Werts started 10 games for the Eagles in 2018 as Georgia Southern went from 2-10 in 2017 to 10-3 and Camellia Bowl champions in 2018. He was the team’s second-leading rusher with 908 yards and 15 touchdowns and was 69-of-116 passing for 987 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions."

In July Pinnacle had the Georgia Southern (GS) regular season wins total at over 6.5 -150 & under 6.5 +113. On Sunday August 4 i noticed it was off the board.

SBR says the LSU/GS line re their August 31 game opened at -25.5 and is now at 29, 29.5 & 30 across various books. A reaction to the GS QB being arrested? From the articles i've read he hasn't been ruled out for that game. And he tested negative for drugs & was at the team practice on Sunday.
 
So first it was Pete Alonzo. Then it was Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Now its.....Aristides Aquino? Who is this guy? 7 home runs in his first 9 games.
 
So first it was Pete Alonzo. Then it was Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Now its.....Aristides Aquino? Who is this guy? 7 home runs in his first 9 games.
So first it was Pete Alonzo. Then it was Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Now its.....Aristides Aquino? Who is this guy? 7 home runs in his first 9 games.
For years Aquino was seen as physical player with all the tools. He never really put it together many years in the minors like expected. Time will tell if this is a mirage. Personally I've always enjoyed seeing players sustain success after grinding out failure so I'm rooting for him.
 
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