UFC

Blachowicz fight went nothing like I expected, aside from Jan making it a slow paced fight. Jan's takedowns and control were extremely impressive. And his ability to touch izzy with his boxing was much better than expected. Blachowicz is a stud. Ulberg bet was a mistake. Pissed away 1.72 units.

[31-24] +17.08
3* [5-2] +8.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350


PENDING:

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
3*Misha Cirkunov -125
1*Ricardo Ramos +185
1*Leon Edwards -260
1*Gavin Tucker +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155
1*Don'tale Mayes +210

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145

1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
 
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Leon Edwards -260 (74" Reach) vs Belal Muhammad (72" reach)
Current line: Edwards -255

There are levels to this game. Belal Muhammad is a very solid fighter and I feel has done just about everything to maximize his potential. But he is just going to be outmatched here. Everything he can do Leon does better. Both are intelligent, well rounded fighters. Leon wears a bigger frame, with more quickness, more fluidity, and more power. In the past, Muhammad leveled the playing field vs his bigger more athletic foes by taking them to the mat and controlling them. Good luck doing that vs Edwards. Not only does Edwards have great takedown defense, his ability to spoil takedowns by escaping or landing elbows from his back are outstanding. Outside of the great Kamaru Usman, no man has been able to exercise this strategy. Also of note, the Usman bout was 6 years ago and Leons grappling skills have improved dramatically since then. His wrestling is actually now a weapon and no longer a weakness. In his last 2 bouts he has landed 5 takedowns vs very good grapplers (RDA, Gunnar) and demonstrated outstanding control and ground n pound. Because of Leons kickboxing background most envision him as a distance striker. But in reality Leon does most of his damage in close. Exactly where Belal wants this fight to be. Leon slashes people with short hooks, elbows, and knees. And always seems to find a way to keep his head at distance in a phone booth battle. Ever since the Usman bout he has made a concerted effort to make people pay in the clinch and as they break from it. Tight exchanges and clinch work is where Belal tries to take all of his fights because he is undersized. Could be a rough night for him. My only concern with this fight is Leon has been inactive for almost 2 years now.

Belal is very durable and can take a beating. Don't give him much of a punchers chance either as he lacks KO power (1 career KO in 2016). My expectation is he gets outclassed by Leon but survives. Leon by unanimous decision.
 
Mischa Cirkunov -125 (77" Reach) vs Ryan Spann (79" reach)
Current line: Cirkunov -145

Ryan Spann looks the part. His massive 6'5" frame and 79 inch reach ensure he'd be the first guy picked in a pickup game base off looks alone. However, skills are lacking. Spann prefers to stand but does very little to set up his shots. He walks his foes down winging shots seldom using feints to set up his strikes. His frame packs a punch but his power is far from elite in the weight class. His defense leaves alot to be desired in the striking and takedown department. He walks in with a negative 0.16 landed to absorbed differential and 60% takedown defense. He does work in takedowns himself offensively. His ground control is average and not much of a submission threat. He will be heavily outmatched on the ground with Cirkunov in this one. Cirkunov has come on tough times winning only 2 of his last 5. Getting clipped early in the 1st in all 3 losses. It will be 2 years since his last KO defeat so his chin should be rested. He has mentioned publicly that as his striking prowess improved in camp he started to fall in love with his hands and entertained the striking a little more than he should. In his last fight he made an effort to get back to his strengths with his powerful takedowns and masterful bjj game. He looked outstanding in transitions vs a very talented grappler in Jimmy Crute. This isn't to say that Mischa can't strike, it's just not his best weapon. Cirkunov's speed allows him to defend well with a 4.18-2.89 landed to absorbed and 70% takedown defense.

Comparatively between the two, Cirkunov's strength of schedule is drastically better than Spann. Spann has not faced anyone top 15 caliber and this will be a monstrous step up in competition. Whereas Cirkunov has already faced Glover, Volkan, Krylov, Crute, and Cutelaba.

I think Cirkunovs speed is going to be a big factor in this one and he will be the one to dictate where the fight takes place. I see him shooting under Spann's long punches, controlling the bigger man and eventually stopping him on the mat. Cirkunov by 1st round finish.
 
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Gavin Tucker +110 (66" Reach) vs Dan Ige (71" reach)
Current line: Tucker +110

This matchup features two opponents with similar skillsets. Tucker and Ige both have great durability, solid striking, and solid grappling. Tucker has faced stiff competition but none that are extremely battle tested or with big names. In my opinion, I think Tucker is better on the feet and the mat. Hard to say for sure as Ige has fought proven commodities in Kattar and Barboza whereas Tuckers best wins have come against Quarantillo, Jaynes, and Choi (Quarantillo and Choi I am high on but have not fought top 15 caliber fighters yet). His win against Barboza is very questionable. I had a wager on Barboza and was furious with the decision. Media outlets had Barboza winning by a 16-2 margin. When he was pitted against top 5 caliber fighters he was clearly outmatched in talent and skill. To me Ige has reached his ceiling and will most likely be a career top 15 fighter. His lack of quickness and power can only take him so far despite being very technically sound. Tucker on the other hand seems to continually improve under Faraz Zahabi with each bout despite being 34 years of age. Tuckers footwork is outstanding. He rolls with punches well, angles intelligently on his strikes, and is able to move just out of range in order to counter back. He has been able to execute takedowns with regularity and has outstanding top control and jiu jitsu. I personally would line Tucker as a small favorite and will gladly take the +money in this contest. Tucker by unanimous decision.
 
[31-24] +17.08
3* [5-2] +8.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350


PENDING:

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125
1*Leon Edwards -260
1*Gavin Tucker +110
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155
1*Don'tale Mayes +210

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
 
Matheus Nicolau +110 (66" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Nicolau +110

Two exciting 125lb prospects square off. Kape's debut was pretty uneventful as washed by unanimous on Alexandre Pantoja. But Kape did flash his excellent athleticism and striking potential. But he was very tentative. Seemed to be hunting for the KO while absorbing shots and getting outpointed. If the approach remains the same, I think Nicolau will have more success Pantoja. It's possible Kape revamps his approach but given this fight is 45 days from his last bout and he took this fight on 10 days notice, I doubt we see much change. Nicolau is a very skilled and capable striker. He can lead the dance and is a very good counter striker in the pocket as well. If by chance he can get Kape to the mat his jiu jitsu is very high level. Nicolau's ability to hit and evade is impresses me most. Kape showed excellent ability to escape from the big shot during flurries but got touched far too frequently with lead strikes on most exchanges.

Both fighters have power in the their hands and could potentially end the fight early via KO. But given how patient both fighters are and how defensively minded Nicolau is, I see it going the distance. I expect both fighters to be cautious standing with Nicolau attempting to mix in the grappling later in the fight. Striking volume and defense eventually get Nicolau the nod. Nicolau by unanimous decision.
 
[31-24] +17.08
3* [5-2] +8.12

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125
1*Leon Edwards -260
1*Gavin Tucker +110
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125
1*Matheus Nicolau +110

Mischa Cirkunov -125 (77" Reach) vs Ryan Spann (79" reach)
Current line: Cirkunov -135

Ryan Spann looks the part. His massive 6'5" frame and 79 inch reach ensure he'd be the first guy picked in a pickup game base off looks alone. However, skills are lacking. Spann prefers to stand but does very little to set up his shots. He walks his foes down winging shots seldom using feints to set up his strikes. His frame packs a punch but his power is far from elite in the weight class. His defense leaves alot to be desired in the striking and takedown department. He walks in with a negative 0.16 landed to absorbed differential and 60% takedown defense. He does work in takedowns himself offensively. His ground control is average and not much of a submission threat. He will be heavily outmatched on the ground with Cirkunov in this one. Cirkunov has come on tough times winning only 2 of his last 5. Getting clipped early in the 1st in all 3 losses. It will be 2 years since his last KO defeat so his chin should be rested. He has mentioned publicly that as his striking prowess improved in camp he started to fall in love with his hands and entertained the striking a little more than he should. In his last fight he made an effort to get back to his strengths with his powerful takedowns and masterful bjj game. He looked outstanding in transitions vs a very talented grappler in Jimmy Crute. This isn't to say that Mischa can't strike, it's just not his best weapon. Cirkunov's speed allows him to defend well with a 4.18-2.89 landed to absorbed and 70% takedown defense.

Comparatively between the two, Cirkunov's strength of schedule is drastically better than Spann. Spann has not faced anyone top 15 caliber and this will be a monstrous step up in competition. Whereas Cirkunov has already faced Glover, Volkan, Krylov, Crute, and Cutelaba.

I think Cirkunovs speed is going to be a big factor in this one and he will be the one to dictate where the fight takes place. I see him shooting under Spann's long punches, controlling the bigger man and eventually stopping him on the mat. Cirkunov by 1st round finish.


Leon Edwards -260 (74" Reach) vs Belal Muhammad (72" reach)
Current line: Edwards -275

There are levels to this game. Belal Muhammad is a very solid fighter and I feel has done just about everything to maximize his potential. But he is just going to be outmatched here. Everything he can do Leon does better. Both are intelligent, well rounded fighters. Leon wears a bigger frame, with more quickness, more fluidity, and more power. In the past, Muhammad leveled the playing field vs his bigger more athletic foes by taking them to the mat and controlling them. Good luck doing that vs Edwards. Not only does Edwards have great takedown defense, his ability to spoil takedowns by escaping or landing elbows from his back are outstanding. Outside of the great Kamaru Usman, no man has been able to exercise this strategy. Also of note, the Usman bout was 6 years ago and Leons grappling skills have improved dramatically since then. His wrestling is actually now a weapon and no longer a weakness. In his last 2 bouts he has landed 5 takedowns vs very good grapplers (RDA, Gunnar) and demonstrated outstanding control and ground n pound. Because of Leons kickboxing background most envision him as a distance striker. But in reality Leon does most of his damage in close. Exactly where Belal wants this fight to be. Leon slashes people with short hooks, elbows, and knees. And always seems to find a way to keep his head at distance in a phone booth battle. Ever since the Usman bout he has made a concerted effort to make people pay in the clinch and as they break from it. Tight exchanges and clinch work is where Belal tries to take all of his fights because he is undersized. Could be a rough night for him. My only concern with this fight is Leon has been inactive for almost 2 years now.

Belal is very durable and can take a beating. Don't give him much of a punchers chance either as he lacks KO power (1 career KO in 2016). My expectation is he gets outclassed by Leon but survives. Leon by unanimous decision.


Gavin Tucker +110 (66" Reach) vs Dan Ige (71" reach)
Current line: Tucker +125

This matchup features two opponents with similar skillsets. Tucker and Ige both have great durability, solid striking, and solid grappling. Tucker has faced stiff competition but none that are extremely battle tested or with big names. In my opinion, I think Tucker is better on the feet and the mat. Hard to say for sure as Ige has fought proven commodities in Kattar and Barboza whereas Tuckers best wins have come against Quarantillo, Jaynes, and Choi (Quarantillo and Choi I am high on but have not fought top 15 caliber fighters yet). His win against Barboza is very questionable. I had a wager on Barboza and was furious with the decision. Media outlets had Barboza winning by a 16-2 margin. When he was pitted against top 5 caliber fighters he was clearly outmatched in talent and skill. To me Ige has reached his ceiling and will most likely be a career top 15 fighter. His lack of quickness and power can only take him so far despite being very technically sound. Tucker on the other hand seems to continually improve under Faraz Zahabi with each bout despite being 34 years of age. Tuckers footwork is outstanding. He rolls with punches well, angles intelligently on his strikes, and is able to move just out of range in order to counter back. He has been able to execute takedowns with regularity and has outstanding top control and jiu jitsu. I personally would line Tucker as a small favorite and will gladly take the +money in this contest. Tucker by unanimous decision.


Matheus Nicolau +110 (66" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Nicolau +100

Two exciting 125lb prospects square off. Kape's debut was pretty uneventful as washed by unanimous on Alexandre Pantoja. But Kape did flash his excellent athleticism and striking potential. But he was very tentative. Seemed to be hunting for the KO while absorbing shots and getting outpointed. If the approach remains the same, I think Nicolau will have more success Pantoja. It's possible Kape revamps his approach but given this fight is 45 days from his last bout and he took this fight on 10 days notice, I doubt we see much change. Nicolau is a very skilled and capable striker. He can lead the dance and is a very good counter striker in the pocket as well. If by chance he can get Kape to the mat his jiu jitsu is very high level. Nicolau's ability to hit and evade is impresses me most. Kape showed excellent ability to escape from the big shot during flurries but got touched far too frequently with lead strikes on most exchanges.

Both fighters have power in the their hands and could potentially end the fight early via KO. But given how patient both fighters are and how defensively minded Nicolau is, I see it going the distance. I expect both fighters to be cautious standing with Nicolau attempting to mix in the grappling later in the fight. Striking volume and defense eventually get Nicolau the nod. Nicolau by unanimous decision.
 
Nice call on over smartz

I also had Nicolau but don’t feel he deserved the decision
True split decision imo. Won a coinflip. Kape finished strong but Nicolau controlled the first 4 minutes. Thought Kape may have stole it. Don't listen to the commentators when DC and Rogan are commentating with their friends fighting. DC trains Kape. Too much bias from color commentary
 
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