UFC

3*'s went exactly how I expected. Yanez is a scary motherfucker. Underestimated him

[35-29] +18.33
3* [7-3] +12.77

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

PENDING:

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
 
Listening to Bisping during the Brunson fight was insufferable

Like usual he’s in a different universe watching a different fight
Listening to Holland was brutal too. You're getting crushed and trying to act like everything is gravy. It was like Costa taunting Izzy when he was getting torched
 
2*Joe Solecki -190

So pissed I missed this opener. Been waiting on a line for a while now. I think the line will only climb. Wouldve risked more at the lower price
 
PENDING:

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175

1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
 
Stipe Miocic +140 (80" Reach) vs Francis Ngannou (83" reach)
Current line: Miocic +100

Stipe continues to be doubted despite being the best UFC HW fighter ever. For whatever reason there are some vets that just continue to appear vulnerable to the masses. Closest comparison is probably Jan Blachowicz. These guys just continue to win but also continue to not pass the eyeball test. And for Stipe, I have to admit I am guilty as well. I could not get myself to risk 3 units because Ngannou scares the shit out of me. These two originally squared off in 2018 where Stipe dominated for 5 rounds. Outlanding Ngannou 200-33, takedowns were 6-0, and control time was 15:05-0:02. Ngannou did land some big shots early but Stipe rolled with them and was able to absorb them with little harm endured. Ngannou shockingly opened as a large favorite in this bout and was being touted as new and improved. He might be, but he has yet to show it. In his 4 fight win streak he has amassed a total of 2 minutes and 30 seconds of time in the cage. Translation: He has rushed dudes and KO'd them extremely early in the 1st round. Was he more technical? No. If you watch replays of his last bout vs Rozenstruik, he rushed in with reckless abandon, winding up on haymakers and found the target. Out went the lights. I imagine Ngannou has made an effort to improve his cardio but his 1 minute of mayhem approach will sap anyones cardio and leave alot to be desired in a 5 round bout. Taking the +money just seems obvious in this one. Not only has Stipe shown the goods to beat Ngannou but he did it in such a dominant fashion. And we have seen Stipe improve mightily since then. His adjustments in the Cormier rematch were phenomenal and his ability to rally late reinforce how durable of a fighter he is.

Could Ngannou shut off Stipe's brain early. 100% possible, the guy hits like a truck. I do expect Francis to be a bit more cautious in this one and feel Stipe out a little longer than the first bout. But eventually he will push the pedal and let the hands fly. He has only shown one path to victory and it has worked marvelously well over his career. However, I think Stipe's movement will be too much for him. We are going to squeeze buttcheeks for about 3minutes before Ngannou slows down. But once he does, its hard not to think that Stipe will takeover. Using his grappling to disarm Francis and shove his face into the mat. I have a gut feeling Stipe wins within the distance but common sense says Stipe by unanimous decision.
 
Same writeup from a few months ago. Bout was rescheduled

Gillian Robertson +150 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +135

Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time
 
Tyron Woodley +221 (74" Reach) vs Vicente Luque (75" reach)
Current line: Woodley +205

After an outstanding championship run from 2016-2019, Tyron Woodley has loss 15 consecutive rounds over the last 2 years. Whats the cause? I really don't have a good answer. Maybe he got distracted with his acting, rapping, and commentating career. It certainly isn't because a lack of skill or talent. He has flashed that world class explosive athleticism in each of his 3 losses but it's just few and far between. Tyron simply hasn't shown up ready to fight. He has always been a patient fighter, almost to a fault. But in his recent bouts it almost seems like he's trigger shy. Waiting for the perfect shot that simply never seems to arrive. It's fair to say maybe he was outmatched, realized it in the cage, and lacked the confidence to be offensive. Prior to this 3 fight losing streak Woodley sported the best takedown defense in the UFC. In each of his last 3 fights he was taken down 2+ times and was controlled on the mat. To be fair he fought the #1, #2, and #3 fighters in the world in succession. Who all also happen to be world class grapplers.

Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter. His strikes are stiff and crisp but his defense is nearly non existent (5.72-5.82 landed vs absorbed ratio). Luque has been blessed with a granite chin. He relies on walking through opponents shots, delivering heavy blows, and wearing you down with his pace. While this makes for fun fights, this approach does not work against the elite in the UFC. To me, it's no secret that his 3 losses in the UFC have come against the 3 best fighters he has faced. He was embarassed by Stephen Thompson, Michael Graves and Leon Edwards. Luque also does not defend takedowns well (64% defense). He has been fortunate in his career to not have been slated against elite grapplers since his UFC debut. His takedown defense would probably be worse with a tougher schedule.

On paper Tyron Woodley is about as bad of a matchup as you can make for Luque. Woodley has elite power (arguably the best in the division) that can neutralize Luque's zombie like chin and elite wrestling to take him to the mat to neutralize his pressure. Woodley has not wrestled offensively for some time now and has used his wrestling to evade takedowns rather than send his opponent to the mat. He has also been fighting primarily 5 round bouts and I think his approach has been moreso to conserve energy for championship rounds. I think he will be more willing to wrestle given this will be his first 3 round bout in over 5 years. The real unknown is finding out which Tyron Woodley shows up when the cage doors lock. The fighter who was on pace to be the best 170lb champion ever or the ex-champ who has been shutout and gunshy over his last 3 fights. At this price, my money is banking on the Tyron of old reminding the world what he is capable of. Woodley by TKO.
 
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