UFC

1*Michael Chandler +125
Chandler's been very impressive and dominant in his last few. He is a true and deserving champion. With that said I think he's met his match with C.O. I'm taking Charles. Don't understand Chandler being a dog. This fight should be even or Chandler as the fav. I do see value in Chandler but I think Olivera is as much more skilled fighter than the last 2 two Chandler knocked out in minutes. Good luck. Should be a great fight whenever it takes place.
 
Stipe weighs in at 233. 13lbs lighter than the original bout.
Giving up 30lbs to Francis. That's concerning. Originally I liked Stipe but I see lots of confidence in Francis and the rematch angle. Francis is a way better fighter the second time around. I'm changing my mind.
 
Chandler's been very impressive and dominant in his last few. He is a true and deserving champion. With that said I think he's met his match with C.O. I'm taking Charles. Don't understand Chandler being a dog. This fight should be even or Chandler as the fav. I do see value in Chandler but I think Olivera is as much more skilled fighter than the last 2 two Chandler knocked out in minutes. Good luck. Should be a great fight whenever it takes place.
I think the biggest advantage Charles has is cardio and I'm not even sure of that. Charles has never gone 5 in his career where Chandler has done it a gang of times already.
Chandler's wrestling pedigree is going to decide where the fight goes. My guess would be Chandler will keep the fight standing to eliminate Charlie Olives bjj but Chandler is a savage on the ground too. I think whoever has top position has a good chance of putting the smush on the other and holding control for a long time. I expect Chandler will be stronger and faster but Chandler does slow considerably as the fight goes on. Both fighters have been finished multiple times in their career. Typing this out makes me want to wager more on this one.
 
Giving up 30lbs to Francis. That's concerning. Originally I liked Stipe but I see lots of confidence in Francis and the rematch angle. Francis is a way better fighter the second time around. I'm changing my mind.
I think it's smart. He's weighed in at 233 for his last 2 Cormier fights for speed and mobility and it worked very well. Stipe is going to win this fight by being elusive and avoiding damage. Not so much by delivering damage and matching his power. Got to drain the giant of energy first. You could make a case more weight might allow him to eat shots better. But against Francis, I am not sure any weight gained would be of significance (Stipe typically fought at around 245 prior). He hits so hard, if he hits flush it's night night for everyone. Stipe's body looks insane for this fight. Never seen him look so cut.

I've rewatched all 5 of Ngannous fights since the original bout. I truly have no idea where he has improved. He did nothing vs Derrick Lewis. Then KOd everyone else in less than a minute. His 1 minute KO strategy is still scary as hell and fully understand the respect he is getting. My money is on Stipe, but I won't be shocked if he gets stopped early. The risk you run betting against Ngannou
 
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Giving up 30lbs to Francis. That's concerning. Originally I liked Stipe but I see lots of confidence in Francis and the rematch angle. Francis is a way better fighter the second time around. I'm changing my mind.
Also the rematch angle is terrible for the fighter who loss in the previous bout. I want to say the previous winner wins again around 60% of the time and in title fights around 70% of the time.
 
I think it's smart. He's weighed in at 233 for his last 2 Cormier fights for speed and mobility and it worked very well. Stipe is going to win this fight by being elusive and avoiding damage. Not so much by delivering damage and matching his power. Got to drain the giant of energy first. You could make a case more weight might allow him to eat shots better. But against Francis, I am not sure any weight gained would be of significance (Stipe typically fought at around 245 prior). He hits so hard, if he hits flush it's night night for everyone. Stipe's body looks insane for this fight. Never seen him look so cut.

I've rewatched all 5 of Ngannous fights since the original bout. I truly have no idea where he has improved. He did nothing vs Derrick Lewis. Then KOd everyone else in less than a minute. His 1 minute KO strategy is still scary as hell and fully understand the respect he is getting. My money is on Stipe, but I won't be shocked if he gets stopped early. The risk you run betting against Ngannou
I think he's improved a ton since the Lewis fight. If I recall neither fight threw any leather in that fight. They both were afraid to engage. I wouldn't call it a fight. Weren't they getting booed for lack of action. Unless I'm mistaking it for another fight?
 
I think he's improved a ton since the Lewis fight. If I recall neither fight threw any leather in that fight. They both were afraid to engage. I wouldn't call it a fight. Weren't they getting booed for lack of action. Unless I'm mistaking it for another fight?
Yah no one did anything that fight, thats why I was saying he showed me nothing there. Where do you see improvement?
 
Yah no one did anything that fight, thats why I was saying he showed me nothing there. Where do you see improvement?
He was pathetic against Lewis. I'll toss that fight out. Then he rattled off 4 wins in 1 minute or less. Byldes, Dos Santos, Velasquez, and JR. Four dominant wins. In my eyes that's solid improvement over a 2 year period. Now off for a year, he's been training with Kamaru Usman, I just think he's a different fighter from when he fought Lewis and prior to that Stipe. The problem thou is Stipe is very good and a recent great champion. Way better than those 4 Frances knocked out in a minute or less.
 
He was pathetic against Lewis. I'll toss that fight out. Then he rattled off 4 wins in 1 minute or less. Byldes, Dos Santos, Velasquez, and JR. Four dominant wins. In my eyes that's solid improvement over a 2 year period. Now off for a year, he's been training with Kamaru Usman, I just think he's a different fighter from when he fought Lewis and prior to that Stipe. The problem thou is Stipe is very good and a recent great champion. Way better than those 4 Frances knocked out in a minute or less.
I don't agree. He did the same thing prior to the first fight. KO'd Blaydes, Overeem, Arlovski, Hamilton, Mihalovjic. Oliveira all quickly. Like I said before he may have skills he's acquired but not had to showcase. But everything he has done recently, looked the same as he did prior.


That clip from his last fight was just rockem sockem and just screams exposed hips.
 
I don't agree. He did the same thing prior to the first fight. KO'd Blaydes, Overeem, Arlovski, Hamilton, Mihalovjic. Oliveira all quickly. Like I said before he may have skills he's acquired but not had to showcase. But everything he has done recently, looked the same as he did prior.


That clip from his last fight was just rockem sockem and just screams exposed hips.

How do explain the Lewis fight? He seemed scared to engage. It was like the 2 were dancing the tango. I like your confidence on Stipe. Im going to stick with my original wager and add more.

But I'll not let you talk me into Chandler. I think you got every bit of the line, but Charlie O wins this fight. Chandler been fighting pro since '09. Many wars. The 2 fights against Alvarez were amazing. Pitbull beat him. His recent win over Henderson doesn't impress me. Henderson sucks. Then he beat Hooker? Charlie O is in a different class than the others I believe.
 
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How do explain the Lewis fight? He seemed scared to engage. It was like the 2 were dancing the tango. I like your confidence on Stipe. Im going to stick with my original wager and add more.

But I'll not let you talk me into Chandler. I think you got every bit of the line, but Charlie O wins this fight. Chandler been fighting pro since '09. Many wars. The 2 fights against Alvarez were amazing. Pitbull beat him. His recent win over Henderson doesn't impress me. Henderson sucks. Then he beat Hooker? Charlie O is in a different class than the others I believe.
The Lewis fight is of little significance to me. Like you said nothing happened. All Im saying is I need to see something different that Francis is going to bring to the table from the first fight. Because he got dominated for 5 rounds. He hasn't shown anything revealing improvement or a change in style. I guess we will find out tomorrow if the fight goes past the first round.

If you like Francis that much upping your wager makes sense. Line has dropped dramatically from the opener. Opened -225. If anything you're getting him cheap. Probably won't see Francis this low of a favorite for a long time unless he wins and fights Jon Jones next.

I most likely won't up my wager on Chandler. Would like to see more of him in the UFC first. I don't think him losing to Pitbull is a blemish to his record either. I rate Pitbull higher than Volkanovski and Holloway (not counting Holloway in his last performance, he beats anyone if he can perform like that every night).
 
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The Lewis fight is of little significance to me. Like you said nothing happened. All Im saying is I need to see something different that Francis is going to bring to the table from the first fight. Because he got dominated for 5 rounds. He hasn't shown anything revealing improvement or a change in style. I guess we will find out tomorrow if the fight goes past the first round.

If you like Francis that much upping your wager makes sense. Line has dropped dramatically from the opener. Opened -225. If anything you're getting him cheap. Probably won't see Francis this low of a favorite for a long time unless he wins and fights Jon Jones next.

I most likely won't up my wager on Chandler. Would like to see more of him in the UFC first. I don't think him losing to Pitbull is a blemish to his record either. I rate Pitbull higher than Volkanovski and Holloway (not counting Holloway in his last performance, he beats anyone if he can perform like that every night).

No you misunderstood. My initial wager was on Stipe. I'm not high on Francis but I was starting to shift towards him. But after your posts I'm sticking with Stipe. And will add more.
 
No you misunderstood. My initial wager was on Stipe. I'm not high on Francis but I was starting to shift towards him. But after your posts I'm sticking with Stipe. And will add more.
Hope we get it. Just need to survive early. I'll be totally shocked if Stipe even entertains standing in the pocket in the 1st.
 
PENDING:

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150
1*Tyron Woodley +221

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125


Stipe Miocic +140 (80" Reach) vs Francis Ngannou (83" reach)
Current line: Miocic +120

Stipe continues to be doubted despite being the best UFC HW fighter ever. For whatever reason there are some vets that just continue to appear vulnerable to the masses. Closest comparison is probably Jan Blachowicz. These guys just continue to win but also continue to not pass the eyeball test. And for Stipe, I have to admit I am guilty as well. I could not get myself to risk 3 units because Ngannou scares the shit out of me. These two originally squared off in 2018 where Stipe dominated for 5 rounds. Outlanding Ngannou 200-33, takedowns were 6-0, and control time was 15:05-0:02. Ngannou did land some big shots early but Stipe rolled with them and was able to absorb them with little harm endured. Ngannou shockingly opened as a large favorite in this bout and was being touted as new and improved. He might be, but he has yet to show it. In his 4 fight win streak he has amassed a total of 2 minutes and 30 seconds of time in the cage. Translation: He has rushed dudes and KO'd them extremely early in the 1st round. Was he more technical? No. If you watch replays of his last bout vs Rozenstruik, he rushed in with reckless abandon, winding up on haymakers and found the target. Out went the lights. I imagine Ngannou has made an effort to improve his cardio but his 1 minute of mayhem approach will sap anyones cardio and leave alot to be desired in a 5 round bout. Taking the +money just seems obvious in this one. Not only has Stipe shown the goods to beat Ngannou but he did it in such a dominant fashion. And we have seen Stipe improve mightily since then. His adjustments in the Cormier rematch were phenomenal and his ability to rally late reinforce how durable of a fighter he is.

Could Ngannou shut off Stipe's brain early. 100% possible, the guy hits like a truck. I do expect Francis to be a bit more cautious in this one and feel Stipe out a little longer than the first bout. But eventually he will push the pedal and let the hands fly. He has only shown one path to victory and it has worked marvelously well over his career. However, I think Stipe's movement will be too much for him. We are going to squeeze buttcheeks for about 3minutes before Ngannou slows down. But once he does, its hard not to think that Stipe will takeover. Using his grappling to disarm Francis and shove his face into the mat. I have a gut feeling Stipe wins within the distance but common sense says Stipe by unanimous decision.


Gillian Robertson +150 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +140

Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time


Tyron Woodley +221 (74" Reach) vs Vicente Luque (75" reach)
Current line: Woodley +195

After an outstanding championship run from 2016-2019, Tyron Woodley has loss 15 consecutive rounds over the last 2 years. Whats the cause? I really don't have a good answer. Maybe he got distracted with his acting, rapping, and commentating career. It certainly isn't because a lack of skill or talent. He has flashed that world class explosive athleticism in each of his 3 losses but it's just few and far between. Tyron simply hasn't shown up ready to fight. He has always been a patient fighter, almost to a fault. But in his recent bouts it almost seems like he's trigger shy. Waiting for the perfect shot that simply never seems to arrive. It's fair to say maybe he was outmatched, realized it in the cage, and lacked the confidence to be offensive. Prior to this 3 fight losing streak Woodley sported the best takedown defense in the UFC. In each of his last 3 fights he was taken down 2+ times and was controlled on the mat. To be fair he fought the #1, #2, and #3 fighters in the world in succession. Who all also happen to be world class grapplers.

Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter. His strikes are stiff and crisp but his defense is nearly non existent (5.72-5.82 landed vs absorbed ratio). Luque has been blessed with a granite chin. He relies on walking through opponents shots, delivering heavy blows, and wearing you down with his pace. While this makes for fun fights, this approach does not work against the elite in the UFC. To me, it's no secret that his 3 losses in the UFC have come against the 3 best fighters he has faced. He was embarassed by Stephen Thompson, Michael Graves and Leon Edwards. Luque also does not defend takedowns well (64% defense). He has been fortunate in his career to not have been slated against elite grapplers since his UFC debut. His takedown defense would probably be worse with a tougher schedule.

On paper Tyron Woodley is about as bad of a matchup as you can make for Luque. Woodley has elite power (arguably the best in the division) that can neutralize Luque's zombie like chin and elite wrestling to take him to the mat to neutralize his pressure. Woodley has not wrestled offensively for some time now and has used his wrestling to evade takedowns rather than send his opponent to the mat. He has also been fighting primarily 5 round bouts and I think his approach has been moreso to conserve energy for championship rounds. I think he will be more willing to wrestle given this will be his first 3 round bout in over 5 years. The real unknown is finding out which Tyron Woodley shows up when the cage doors lock. The fighter who was on pace to be the best 170lb champion ever or the ex-champ who has been shutout and gunshy over his last 3 fights. At this price, my money is banking on the Tyron of old reminding the world what he is capable of. Woodley by TKO.
 
Ottman Azaitar -147 (71" Reach) vs Matt Frevola (71" reach)
Current line: Azaitar -160/165 Personally on -150

Another striker vs grappler bout. The former Brave champ, Ottman Azaitar, has burst onto the scene with two quick KO's in his first two UFC fights. Possessing true 1 punch KO power, he is 13-0 overall, with 10 1st round finishes. Azaitar has a great chin and average takedown defense/defense in general. He does tend to find a way back to the feet or reverse position when taken down. Frevola on the other hand relies purely on his wrestling. He is a very strong gritty fighter and can often muscle his opponents to the mat. However, his striking is amateur and bjj is average. Very much a control fighter and doesn't threaten with fight finishing ability. His ground control is far from elite, often getting caught in sub attempts or allowing the opponent to escape/reverse position. He is a frustrating fighter to watch because most bouts he wins you are left feeling "did he really win that fight?". Often inflicting very little damage but winning on points. With that being said, you got to respect that he has a firm understanding of his strengths and weaknesses and does what he can to tip the scorecards in his favor. I just don't think this skill set will take you far in the UFC. When you lack the ability to finish and you fight fight a guy like Azaitar you have to be perfect for 15 minutes because one shot can mean naptime. Under might be a decent play if you side with Azaitar.

Both fighters cardio is questionable. Both slow considerably after about 1.5 rounds. Frevola seems to look more physically compromised as the fight goes on but still has the capability to muscle takedowns when necessary. Normally this would be a 1 unit play for me as I could see Frevola laying and praying for 3 rounds on his way to another decision victory given Azaitars questionable cardio and average takedown defense. But I'm going 2u and that has to do with my bias thinking Frevola's 8-1 record is fraudulent. I think Azaitar catches him coming in and makes him pay mightily. Azaitar KO 1st round.
His brother is fighting tonight after close to a three year layoff, coming in with a 10 fight win streak. Any opinion. I'm going with Ottman's bro
 
Got swept. Yuck. CLV feels worthless on nights like these

[35-32] +14.33
3* [7-3] +12.77

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

PENDING:

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125
 
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