UFC

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Turns out, the opening numbers were better than the closing numbers in the three fights SMARTZ bet.

The house locked up the UFC money tonight.

Next.
 
SMARTZ usually has good reads on fights but got reverse swept. He had some major misreads on the fighters he backed. For instance Stipe fought DC in the last 2 defenses who was a shell of himself. Stipe is also 38 and his reflexes are close to shot and his chin is now suspect. Francis Ngannou had also been working constantly with grapplers and wrestlers. He's a smart guy who has now figured it out. He could be champion for a long time.

Gillian Robertson had a poor gameplan. Sometimes these fighters aren't the smartest tools in the shed. Then Tyron Woodley showed he's done! He's lost 4 straight fights against top level fighters but what is really concerning is he's lost 16 straight rounds. Not even one of those 16 rounds has been close. His reflexes & chin at 38 are a mere shell of what they were at 32, 33 or 34 years old. When your done in this sport your "dog meat". I expect the UFC to cut him within the next month. The only reason he keeps fighting is for a paycheck. At this point he has "Bellator Fighter" written on his forehead.
 
SMARTZ usually has good reads on fights but got reverse swept. He had some major misreads on the fighters he backed. For instance Stipe fought DC in the last 2 defenses who was a shell of himself. Stipe is also 38 and his reflexes are close to shot and his chin is now suspect. Francis Ngannou had also been working constantly with grapplers and wrestlers. He's a smart guy who has now figured it out. He could be champion for a long time.

Gillian Robertson had a poor gameplan. Sometimes these fighters aren't the smartest tools in the shed. Then Tyron Woodley showed he's done! He's lost 4 straight fights against top level fighters but what is really concerning is he's lost 16 straight rounds. Not even one of those 16 rounds has been close. His reflexes & chin at 38 are a mere shell of what they were at 32, 33 or 34 years old. When your done in this sport your "dog meat". I expect the UFC to cut him within the next month. The only reason he keeps fighting is for a paycheck. At this point he has "Bellator Fighter" written on his forehead.
I think it's alot simpler than that. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.
 
SMARTZ usually has good reads on fights but got reverse swept. He had some major misreads on the fighters he backed. For instance Stipe fought DC in the last 2 defenses who was a shell of himself. Stipe is also 38 and his reflexes are close to shot and his chin is now suspect. Francis Ngannou had also been working constantly with grapplers and wrestlers. He's a smart guy who has now figured it out. He could be champion for a long time.

Did you watch these fights? The trilogy was incredibly competitive. Feel free to find me any article where the authors felt DC looked outmatched and terrible.
By that logic 38yr old Derek Brunson and 38yr old Jan Blachowicz had no business cashing in weeks prior vs young up and comers.
Suspect chin? Part of my writeup was the risk you take betting against Ngannou is he has an eraser. No suspect chin, he just got hit by a tank.
And lastly, every striker in the promotion works with wrestlers and grapplers and vice versa. It's mixed martial arts, specialists of other disciplines are flown in every camp. Just because you train with people of other disciplines, doesn't mean you manufacture results. If you used that info as an edge, every single fighter would be worthy of a bet.
Admittedly, I was on the wrong side. Ngannou handled his cardio and Stipe's grappling far better than I expected. I knew I was in trouble after watching Francis stuff and reverse Stipe's first shot.

Gillian Robertson had a poor gameplan. Sometimes these fighters aren't the smartest tools in the shed. Then Tyron Woodley showed he's done! He's lost 4 straight fights against top level fighters but what is really concerning is he's lost 16 straight rounds. Not even one of those 16 rounds has been close. His reflexes & chin at 38 are a mere shell of what they were at 32, 33 or 34 years old. When your done in this sport your "dog meat". I expect the UFC to cut him within the next month. The only reason he keeps fighting is for a paycheck. At this point he has "Bellator Fighter" written on his forehead.

Gillian was the wrong side. Her gameplan was poor but she didn't seem to have any significant edge on the mat either. Which was what I was banking on.

I thought Woodley looked outstanding. If I knew he would approach the fight that aggressively I would've risked 3u no doubt. I don't know how you can say it wasn't close. He rocked Luque bad, got too excited, rushed in for the kill and got clipped himself. Just like Gilbert Burns did vs Kamaru. Shit happens. Luque's takedown defense looked very much improved.
 
[35-32] +14.33
3* [7-3] +12.77

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

PENDING:

4/2/21 Bellator
2*Patricio Freire -244
1*Jason Jackson +138


4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125
 
[37-32] +17.71
3* [7-3] +12.77

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

4/2/21 Bellator
2*Patricio Freire -244 W Closing Line: -250
1*Jason Jackson +138 W Closing Line: +105

PENDING:

4/10/21
3*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/1/21
1*Sean Strickland -220
1*Dominick Reyes +105


5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
 
Last edited:
PENDING:

4/10/21
3*Nina Ansaroff -110
2*Joe Solecki -190
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130

4/23/21 PFL
2*Sheymon Moraes +195

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145

5/1/21
1*Sean Strickland -220
1*Dominick Reyes +105

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
 
so many things had to go wrong to lose that under...

[0-1] -1.15

2*Nats -139
1.5*KC -105
1.5*CWS -115
1.5*Under KC/CLE 8.5 +105
 
Last edited:
Somehow overlooked how many players are out for the Nats. Price looked too good to be true.

MLB [4-1] +5.43

2.2*Braves +110
2*Nats -120
2*Rangers +120
1*Rays -142
1*Phillies +123
1*DBacks +107
1*ChiSox -139
 
MLB [11-8] +4.9

[37-32] +17.71
3* [7-3] +12.77

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

4/2/21 Bellator
2*Patricio Freire -244 W Closing Line: -250
1*Jason Jackson +138 W Closing Line: +105

4/7/21 ONE
2*Eddie Alvarez -115 No Action Closing Line: -145
 
I was unaware of the betting rule.

A no contest, love it.
I don't think its the betting rule, I think it's the unified MMA rules. What's odd is Eddie Alvarez has a loss on his record. It is being labeled as a No Contest Loss which makes zero sense to me. Almost always just goes down as either NC or win/loss, not both. Anyway my bet was refunded and graded "Cancelled"
 

hcskip

EOG Senior Member
I don't think its the betting rule, I think it's the unified MMA rules. What's odd is Eddie Alvarez has a loss on his record. It is being labeled as a No Contest Loss which makes zero sense to me. Almost always just goes down as either NC or win/loss, not both. Anyway my bet was refunded and graded "Cancelled"
BetAgainSports posted Alvarez as a Loss. I'm not upset because it was part of a 3-way parley and the play (Demetrious Johnson) lost as well.
 
Top