UFC

[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
1.5*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165

3/6/21
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Last edited:
Seung Woo Choi +101 (74.5" Reach) vs Collin Anglin (71" reach)
Current line: Choi -145

Seung Woo Choi is a monster 145'er and a ferocious striker. At 6'0 with a 74.5" reach, Choi is an imposing specimen in the featherweight division. It is pretty safe to say that in almost every matchup Choi would hold the size and power advantage at 145. He is an assassin on the feet. Extremely aggressive, he pressures his opponents with a variety of techniques and attempts to break their will. His cardio is fantastic, his striking is crisp and technical, his hands are heavy, and his right body kick is nasty. I think his standup game is elite in the 145 division but his takedown defense is not. And that is precisely why he is 1-2 in the UFC. Choi's takedown defense in my opinion is not bad, its just a vulnerability because it's not bulletproof. And to be fair his 2 losses are against some of the most promising prospects in the division in Movsar Evloev (4-0) and Gavin Tucker (4-1). Both guys could not strike with him, but their high level grappling allowed them to neutralize his weapons in the standup. This is whats holding me back from giving a 3* as compared to a 2* for this fight. Anglin is a wrestler as well but I don't think Anglin has the strength or technique those two high level fighters possess. His striking is stiff and I think he will have a hard time closing distance for takedowns if he is not able gain respect with his hands in order to mask his shots. Anglin is 1-0 in the UFC winning his lone bout in the Contender series. Prior to that win he really hasn't beaten any quality competition with most opponents sporting losing records. In this fight, I see Choi being much more successful stuffing shots and making Collin pay in the striking exchanges. Choi by TKO.
 
I wonder how much Ribas had to cut final day? Might've had something to do with her going down with that first shot
It's pretty standard for her. I think she just got clipped by a really good striker. The 1st round went just as I thought it would but then a shot behind the ear had her doing the chicken dance in the 2nd. Thats the fight game for ya.
I personally think Ribas got too comfortable and tried to entertain the fans by engaging in the standup more than she needed to because she was on the main card of a McGregor PPV. Otherwise I have a hard time explaining why else she would go 1/1 in takedowns in the first with 3:30 of top control then not attempt a shot in the 2nd.
 
Alexandre Pantoja -125 (67" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Pantoja -125

They have thrown Manel Kape to the wolves in his UFC debut. Kape comes in heavily hyped as an AKA product and former champion in Rizin. Kape is a very good athlete with fluid kicks and punches in his repertoire. Relies on his quick movement and often fights with his hands down inviting his opponents to throw. Thats where Kape's strengths lie, on the feet. He does struggle to defend takedowns and seems very amateur off his back. Early on he uses his athleticism to explode back to his feet, but fighters only have a few of those in their back pocket until they burn themselves out. At 27, Kape's game is ever evolving, I just think this matchup is too much too soon. He's facing a man in Pantoja who is dangerous everywhere. A BJJ ace with solid takedowns and serious KO power on the feet. Unfortunately for Pantoja, he's in a division with a guy at the top (Deiveson Figueiredo) that does everything he can but in a bigger frame and with more power. As Pantoja has climbed the ranks in the UFC he has naturally found less success. Dropping 2 of his last 3 to undefeated Askar Askarov and champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Losing both of these bouts by decision.

The two fighters share one common opponent in Yuta Sasaki. A middling ex-UFC fighter, he was stopped in the 1st round by submission when fighting Pantoja but won a lopsided unanimous decision to Kape. Interestingly enough these fights took place 1 month apart. So they essentially fought the exact same guy. As its doubtful a vet like Sasaki made major changes in a matter of weeks. Sasaki was outmatched on the feet vs Kape but continually dragged Kape to the mat at will and pressured him with sub attempts and strikes. I want to say he scored 4-5+ takedowns in a 3 round fight. Aside from Kyoji Horiguchi (who he loss to via sub), Kape has never faced consistent high level competition like he is about to in the UFC. Especially being thrust into a top 5 bout in his debut. I'd give Kape a slight edge in the standup but think Pantoja carries more power in his shots. Pantoja also just has more ways to win as well with his very high level BJJ game. If Pantoja feels threatened standing, I think he will just take it to the ground and end the fight via submission.
 
No fights for 2 weeks. Looking like my final card. May add a small play later.

[9-6] +3.04

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

Diego Ferreira -110 (74" reach) vs Beneil Dariush (72" reach)
Current line: Diego -120

Diego looks to avenge his loss to Beneil Dariush 6.5 years ago. A fight where Dariush was just the more skilled fighter. Landing strikes from distance and maintaining top control in rounds 2 and 3. An intelligent fight strategy that put points on the scorecards. Ferreira was never in any real trouble but couldn't mount any substantial offense against Dariush and loss easily by unanimous decision. Ferriera went on to lose to future interim champ Poirier by TKO a few months later in April 2015. After that fight Diego began training at now rising gym Fortis MMA under Sayif Saud (he was previously coaching himself). Debuting under his new camp in January 2016. Since 2016, the two fighters careers have gone in opposite directions. Dariush going 7-3-1 while narrowly escaping defeat against Drew Dober and Drakkar Klose. Being nearly out on his feet in both matches and rallying with miraculous comebacks. He could easily be 5-5-1. Ferriera on the other hand, has gone 6-0 with a near 2:1 strikes landed to absorbed ratio in the process. W Anthony Pettis (UFC 16-10), W Mairbek Taisumov (7-2 UFC), W Rustam Khabilov (10-3 UFC), W Kyle Nelson (1-3 UFC), W Jared Gordon (4-3 UFC), W Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-5 UFC). Besting 3 top 15 foes in a row.

His move to Fortis transformed his striking in a major way. His grappling was never in doubt being a world class jiu jitsu practicioner, but his striking was raw and lacked finesse. Over the years he has developed outstanding striking defense and quick counters. Parlaying that with outstanding cardio, constant pressure, and incredible pace. Diego has become a real problem on the feet, easily handling high level strikers Taisumov and Pettis in his last two bouts. Comparing footage from his loss to Dariush to the win against Pettis, he was a shadow of his current self. Needless to say, I expect this fight to play out quite differently this time around. Ferriera has blossomed into a contender while Dariush has seemed to remain stagnant as a fringe top 10 gatekeeper. Ferreira by 2nd round TKO.

Seung Woo Choi +101 (74.5" Reach) vs Collin Anglin (71" reach)
Current line: Choi -180

Seung Woo Choi is a monster 145'er and a ferocious striker. At 6'0 with a 74.5" reach, Choi is an imposing specimen in the featherweight division. It is pretty safe to say that in almost every matchup Choi would hold the size and power advantage at 145. He is an assassin on the feet. Extremely aggressive, he pressures his opponents with a variety of techniques and attempts to break their will. His cardio is fantastic, his striking is crisp and technical, his hands are heavy, and his right body kick is nasty. I think his standup game is elite in the 145 division but his takedown defense is not. And that is precisely why he is 1-2 in the UFC. Choi's takedown defense in my opinion is not bad, its just a vulnerability because it's not bulletproof. And to be fair his 2 losses are against some of the most promising prospects in the division in Movsar Evloev (4-0) and Gavin Tucker (4-1). Both guys could not strike with him, but their high level grappling allowed them to neutralize his weapons in the standup. This is whats holding me back from giving a 3* as compared to a 2* for this fight. Anglin is a wrestler as well but I don't think Anglin has the strength or technique those two high level fighters possess. His striking is stiff and I think he will have a hard time closing distance for takedowns if he is not able gain respect with his hands in order to mask his shots. Anglin is 1-0 in the UFC winning his lone bout in the Contender series. Prior to that win he really hasn't beaten any quality competition with most opponents sporting losing records. In this fight, I see Choi being much more successful stuffing shots and making Collin pay in the striking exchanges. Choi by TKO.

Alexander Volkov -160 (80" reach) vs Alistair Overeem (80" reach)
Current line: Volkov -175

In this heavyweight strikers delight, Alexander Volkov looks to continue his ascent to the top of the UFC ranks. Volkov's record is extremely misleading. His 2 defeats have come at the hands of Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. In the fight against Lewis, he absolutely dominated Derrick for 2.99999 rounds. Getting clipped and knocked out with a few seconds left (by the 2nd heaviest hitter in the UFC) and preventing an easy 30-27 victory. While the fight against Blaydes, he continually got taken down by the best takedown artist in the UFC but suffered very little damage. Volkov dominated the 5th and final round and if the fight was a few minutes longer most likely would have finished Blaydes. Alot was learned from the fight with Blaydes. #1 His takedown defense was no match for Blaydes wrestling (Hard to say if anyones is as he averages a whopping 7 takedowns per contest) #2 Volkov's cardio is high level for HW division (looked very nimble in the 5th despite being tackled for 4 rounds straight), #3 Defensive jiu jitsu is outstanding (Mitigated damage on the ground tremendously against a fearsome ground and pounder). His standup game is rarely in question. Volkov maintains distance very well and uses 6'7 frame effectively. Dominating some of the heaviest hitters in the UFC on the feet (Lewis, Hardy, Harris, Nelson). I have a hard time finding where Overeem is superior in this matchup. At this point in his career his striking is inferior, chin is extremely questionable, and won't be able to fight at distance (this being one of the rare instances that he is the smaller fighter). If he has any advantage, it's in the grappling. The question is can he get Volkov to the mat? I doubt it. Overeems level of grappling is eons away from the likes of Blaydes. In fact, if you were to subtract the Blaydes fight which I feel is reasonable as I consider Blaydes ability to get people to the mat as an outlier (averages 2 more takedowns per contest than Khabib). Opponents have only been successful on 5/30 attempts. 83% stuff rate, which is very high level. I think Volkov gets the finish here and may be adding a unit on him finishing within the distance closer to fight time. Volkov by 2nd round TKO.

Alex da Silva -115 (73" reach) vs Devonte Smith (76" reach)
Current line: da Silva -115

Devonte Smith burst onto the scene with 3 fabulous 1st round KO's before being KO'd by his own training partner Khama Worthy. His 3 wins were against lackluster competition. Joe Lowry (0-2 UFC), Julian Erosa (3-5 UFC), Dong Hyun Ma (3-5 UFC). Aside from Smith's raw punching power, not alot can be taken away from his 4 fights because all finished early in the 1st round. The only fight lasting longer than the 1st round against UFC caliber competition was against John Gunther in 2017. A bout in which he loss by 3rd round TKO in the promotion RFO. Smith's power was still present in the fight but Gunther is a zombie and absorbed his big shots early and continually took Smith to the mat. Smith used his superior athleticism to explode back to his feet a few times but like alot of heavy hitting fast starters, the cardio ran out quite quickly. Not only did the grappling defense wither as the fight progressed the pop on his shots did as well. Essentially rolling over and giving up to Gunther in the 3rd. Enter Alex da Silva. At only 24 years of age, he has 24 professional bouts (21-3) in which he has only been stopped once by submission. Even more impressively finishing his opponent in 20 of his 21 wins. Alex da Silva loss his UFC debut vs Alexander Yakovlev on short notice in Russia. Having Alexander in some bad grappling positions before being reversed and submitted in the 2nd. In his last loss he fell short in a close decision to the rising New Zealand City KickBoxing fighter Brad Riddell. I view Riddell as a future contender and his performance against him was quite impressive. Riddell is a decorated striker. A former kickboxing champion who competed professionally in Glory. His striking is very high level. Alex held his own and even got the better of Riddell on the feet in the 1st before Riddell rallied in the 2nd and 3rd to win on the scorecards. Despite his impressive striking performance I think viewers were impressed most by his durability. Was able to eat Riddells heavy shots and keep plodding forward the entire fight. His chin is similar to that of John Gunther but parlayed with far better skills and athleticism.

In this fight, Alex will be the more durable fighter and just has more ways to win. He possesses plus takedown ability, good bjj, good striking, solid cardio, and plus athleticism. His deficiency is his striking defense and he relies heavily on his godlike chin. With Smith's power he always has a punchers chance but da Silva has a zombies chin. I think his durability will allow him to drag Smith into deep water and end with a da Silva 3rd round submission.
 
Last edited:
Danilo Marques +205 (77" reach) vs Mike Rodriguez (82.5" reach)
Current line: Marques +190

Another striker vs grappler matchup. Mike "Slow-Mo" Rodriguez is an outstanding striker. Possessing a variety of techniques and raw power to boot. At 3-4 in the UFC, Mike has got all of his wins via 1st round KO. In all fights going past the first round (Except KO loss to Da Un Jung) have resulted in losses. He should have won his last bout vs Ed Herman and a terrible referee call ruined a TKO for Mike. He eventually got submitted via Kimura shortly thereafter (I was very fortunate to win the wager).

On the feet, Marques skill level does not compare to what Mike brings to the table. Conversely, the opposite is true for the skill mismatch on the ground. Mike not only defends takedowns poorly (40%), he seems absolutely helpless once he gets there. Also when opponents force Mike into grappling exchanges his cardio depletes rapidly. The winner of this fight will be determined by who dictates where the fight takes place. If Marques can't get the fight to the mat, I expect him to get KO'd early. But if he lands takedowns, his top control should allow for an easy victory. With how poor Mike is defending takedowns and how amateur he is off his back, +205 seems to be definitely worth a wager.

Alexandre Pantoja -125 (67" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Pantoja -125

They have thrown Manel Kape to the wolves in his UFC debut. Kape comes in heavily hyped as an AKA product and former champion in Rizin. Kape is a very good athlete with fluid kicks and punches in his repertoire. Relies on his quick movement and often fights with his hands down inviting his opponents to throw. Thats where Kape's strengths lie, on the feet. He does struggle to defend takedowns and seems very amateur off his back. Early on he uses his athleticism to explode back to his feet, but fighters only have a few of those in their back pocket until they burn themselves out. At 27, Kape's game is ever evolving, I just think this matchup is too much too soon. He's facing a man in Pantoja who is dangerous everywhere. A BJJ ace with solid takedowns and serious KO power on the feet. Unfortunately for Pantoja, he's in a division with a guy at the top (Deiveson Figueiredo) that does everything he can but in a bigger frame and with more power. As Pantoja has climbed the ranks in the UFC he has naturally found less success. Dropping 2 of his last 3 to undefeated Askar Askarov and champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Losing both of these bouts by decision.

The two fighters share one common opponent in Yuta Sasaki. A middling ex-UFC fighter, he was stopped in the 1st round by submission when fighting Pantoja but won a lopsided unanimous decision to Kape. Interestingly enough these fights took place 1 month apart. So they essentially fought the exact same guy. As its doubtful a vet like Sasaki made major changes in a matter of weeks. Sasaki was outmatched on the feet vs Kape but continually dragged Kape to the mat at will and pressured him with sub attempts and strikes. I want to say he scored 4-5+ takedowns in a 3 round fight. Aside from Kyoji Horiguchi (who he loss to via sub), Kape has never faced consistent high level competition like he is about to in the UFC. Especially being thrust into a top 5 bout in his debut. I'd give Kape a slight edge in the standup but think Pantoja carries more power in his shots. Pantoja also just has more ways to win as well with his very high level BJJ game. If Pantoja feels threatened standing, I think he will just take it to the ground and end the fight via submission.

Timur Valiev -150 (67" Reach) vs Julio Arce (70" reach)
Current line: Valiev -165

Julio Arce is another striker out of Tiger Schulman in NYC who has produced alot of UFC talent recently. He has some very quality wins under his belt with a decision win over Dan Ige in 2018 and a KO win over Julian Erosa in 2019. Arce relies heavily on his boxing and maintains distance very well. Also presents with outstanding takedown defense (93%) through 6 UFC bouts. While I am a fan of Arce's game, I feel he falls short everywhere against Valiev. Timur has almost no deficiencies in his game. Another Dagestan product who's trained with elite MMA fighters for years now (Jackson-Wink, Mark Henry, etc). He's much more Zabit than Khabib with a very well rounded game grappling, striking, etc. Simply put Timur is good to great everywhere. I think Arce will struggle with Valiev's superior speed, defense and overall diversity in his game. Valiev isn't invincible. He was stopped in his last UFC fight where he had Trevin Jones on deaths door outlanding him like 60-5 but got a little too aggressive and got caught on the chin in the process. Shit happens. Not very often you see a fighter get finished despite outlanding the opponent 66-26. The way in which he loss was out of character too, as he is generally a patient technician and outpoints his foes. His only loss prior to that was a split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez in 2016 who has been very impressive and is currently on a 4-fight streak in the UFC. Valiev avenged that loss with a unanimous decision win 5 months later. My expectation is Valiev easily outpoints his way to a unanimous decision.
 
Smartz-do you wager on Bellator and LFA as well?
Occasionally but usually only on bigger name fighters. I find it really hard gauging SOS and how they'll stack up when your past fight history is fighting all unknowns on regional circuit. And getting footage of these fights are hard to come by.
 
Danilo Marques +205 (77" reach) vs Mike Rodriguez (82.5" reach)
Current line: Marques +190

Another striker vs grappler matchup. Mike "Slow-Mo" Rodriguez is an outstanding striker. Possessing a variety of techniques and raw power to boot. At 3-4 in the UFC, Mike has got all of his wins via 1st round KO. In all fights going past the first round (Except KO loss to Da Un Jung) have resulted in losses. He should have won his last bout vs Ed Herman and a terrible referee call ruined a TKO for Mike. He eventually got submitted via Kimura shortly thereafter (I was very fortunate to win the wager).

On the feet, Marques skill level does not compare to what Mike brings to the table. Conversely, the opposite is true for the skill mismatch on the ground. Mike not only defends takedowns poorly (40%), he seems absolutely helpless once he gets there. Also when opponents force Mike into grappling exchanges his cardio depletes rapidly. The winner of this fight will be determined by who dictates where the fight takes place. If Marques can't get the fight to the mat, I expect him to get KO'd early. But if he lands takedowns, his top control should allow for an easy victory. With how poor Mike is defending takedowns and how amateur he is off his back, +205 seems to be definitely worth a wager.

Alexandre Pantoja -125 (67" Reach) vs Manel Kape (68" reach)
Current line: Pantoja -125

They have thrown Manel Kape to the wolves in his UFC debut. Kape comes in heavily hyped as an AKA product and former champion in Rizin. Kape is a very good athlete with fluid kicks and punches in his repertoire. Relies on his quick movement and often fights with his hands down inviting his opponents to throw. Thats where Kape's strengths lie, on the feet. He does struggle to defend takedowns and seems very amateur off his back. Early on he uses his athleticism to explode back to his feet, but fighters only have a few of those in their back pocket until they burn themselves out. At 27, Kape's game is ever evolving, I just think this matchup is too much too soon. He's facing a man in Pantoja who is dangerous everywhere. A BJJ ace with solid takedowns and serious KO power on the feet. Unfortunately for Pantoja, he's in a division with a guy at the top (Deiveson Figueiredo) that does everything he can but in a bigger frame and with more power. As Pantoja has climbed the ranks in the UFC he has naturally found less success. Dropping 2 of his last 3 to undefeated Askar Askarov and champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Losing both of these bouts by decision.

The two fighters share one common opponent in Yuta Sasaki. A middling ex-UFC fighter, he was stopped in the 1st round by submission when fighting Pantoja but won a lopsided unanimous decision to Kape. Interestingly enough these fights took place 1 month apart. So they essentially fought the exact same guy. As its doubtful a vet like Sasaki made major changes in a matter of weeks. Sasaki was outmatched on the feet vs Kape but continually dragged Kape to the mat at will and pressured him with sub attempts and strikes. I want to say he scored 4-5+ takedowns in a 3 round fight. Aside from Kyoji Horiguchi (who he loss to via sub), Kape has never faced consistent high level competition like he is about to in the UFC. Especially being thrust into a top 5 bout in his debut. I'd give Kape a slight edge in the standup but think Pantoja carries more power in his shots. Pantoja also just has more ways to win as well with his very high level BJJ game. If Pantoja feels threatened standing, I think he will just take it to the ground and end the fight via submission.

Timur Valiev -150 (67" Reach) vs Julio Arce (70" reach)
Current line: Valiev -165

Julio Arce is another striker out of Tiger Schulman in NYC who has produced alot of UFC talent recently. He has some very quality wins under his belt with a decision win over Dan Ige in 2018 and a KO win over Julian Erosa in 2019. Arce relies heavily on his boxing and maintains distance very well. Also presents with outstanding takedown defense (93%) through 6 UFC bouts. While I am a fan of Arce's game, I feel he falls short everywhere against Valiev. Timur has almost no deficiencies in his game. Another Dagestan product who's trained with elite MMA fighters for years now (Jackson-Wink, Mark Henry, etc). He's much more Zabit than Khabib with a very well rounded game grappling, striking, etc. i Simply put Timur is good to great everywhere. I think Arce will struggle with Valiev's superior speed, defense and overall diversity in his game. Valiev isn't invincible. He was stopped in his last UFC fight where he had Trevin Jones on deaths door outlanding him like 60-5 but got a little too aggressive and got caught on the chin in the process. Shit happens. Not very often you see a fighter get finished despite outlanding the opponent 66-26. The way in which he loss was out of character too, as he is generally a patient technician and outpoints his foes. His only loss prior to that was a split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez in 2016 who has been very impressive and is currently on a 4-fight streak in the UFC. Valiev avenged that loss with a unanimous decision win 5 months later. My expectation is Valiev easily outpoints his way to a unanimous decision.
i prefer Russia over Brazil or usa, mentally tougher, a higher tier athlete and not emotionally weak, especially the dagestan region.
 
[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Last edited:
Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
Current Line: 3.5 -105

I have continually doubted Petr Yan and paid the price. His power and durability are undeniable to me now. In my wager on Jimmie Rivera, Rivera won 80-90% of the exchanges but everytime Yan touched him, Jimmie fell down. And despite how many times Jimmie hit him, Yan continued to plod forward and apply pressure. Similarly,just when it seemed Jose Aldo was taking control, Petr was able to get a second wind, deliver his own shots and eventually break Aldo in the championship rounds. Yan is a more technically minded and skilled version of Pedro Munhoz or Vicente Luque. He manages to apply constant pressure and powerful strikes without taking the damage the other two do (6.32 landed vs 3.25 absorbed). And his defensive grappling is outstanding. His 88% takedown defense is for real and his ability to reverse position and land takedowns himself are a strong part of his game. So when pitted against elite grappler Aljamain Sterling, I have a hard time seeing Sterling exercising his ability to get the fight to the mat. I do think Sterlings takedown attempts or feints at takedowns will help to slow Yan's pressure. Forcing him to think twice before delivering heavy shots. As much as Sterling is lauded as a grappler (and for good reason) it's really the evolution of his standup game that impresses me most. Sterling manages to only absorb 1.94 strikes while delivering 4.82. A near 2.5:1 ratio, which is outstanding considering the caliber of fighters he has been facing. He uses his 71" reach (Yan is 67") effectively with constant jabs and kicks to keep fighters at distance. I think a real advantage in this fight is his ability to play matador. He fights well moving backwards, circling away from power, and his defensive instincts/head movement are superb. This should bode well as Yan likes to walk his opponents down and cut the cage off. In this matchup I expect Sterling to be the quicker man and evade strikes when necessary. The amount of movement Sterling uses to keep his opponents off balance looks exhausting but he has the cardio to keep the pace late into the fight. Overall though, I think cardio will be a total wash in this one and I expect this fight to be a high-paced chessmatch on the feet.

My prediction is Aljamain will frustrate Yan early but as in most Yan fights he refuses to go away, makes his adjustments and starts to exert his power late. I have a hard time seeing either guy finishing the other with how sound they are defensively and how durable both fighters are absorbing shots and maintaining their cardio. Between the two, there has only been one finish in 38 combined bouts. Marlon Moraes caught Aljamain ducking and landed flush with a headkick that not even Tony Ferguson could've survived. I expect this to be a hotly contested bout that has 48-47 written all over it after 5. I lean Aljamain as I think he matches up well here but respect Yan's game too much to bet the side. May add a small wager on Sterling by decision +450 closer to fight time.
 
Last edited:
Gabe Green +103 (73" Reach) vs Phil Rowe (80.5" reach)
Current line: Green -110

The deeper I dive into this matchup, the more compelling of a case I have for Gabriel Green. Initially played 1* at +103 I have since added 2 more units at -110.

I first was introduced to Phil Rowe watching a UFC embedded on his training partner David Branch. Branch being a solid UFC vet, my assumption was Rowe must be a solid fighter as well. So naturally when he landed a fight on the contender series I tuned in. I was left fairly unimpressed. Rowe's biggest attribute is his frame. His 80.5" reach at 170 is a weapon. But the hand speed isn't there and he winds up on his strikes. Defensively he will often evade oncoming pressure with his chin high in the air ala Luke Rockhold. He was nearly KO'd in the first round of his Contender series debut but kudos to him as he rallied back and finished Shabahzyan in the 3rd (Green previously finished Shabahzyan in the 1st). Prior to this fight Rowe was a 6-2, but it is an awfully soft 6-2. The records of all his opponents were (4-7), (1-2), (0-5), (0-4), (2-2), (0-2), (1-3), (3-7). And he loss two of those bouts.
Gabe Green loss by decision in his UFC debut against a very talented Daniel Rodriguez on 7 days notice. Prior to that he was on a 6 fight win streak. His opponents records are as follows (7-1), (5-3), (9-4), (17-13), (7-2), (7-6). The quality of competition are drastically different for two guys entering their second career UFC fight. Gabe is 9-3 with two of his losses against good current UFC fighters, Daniel Rodriguez (3-1 UFC) and Jalin Turner (4-2 UFC). Gabe Green is a bit undersized for the division but he closes distance quickly with heavy power on his strikes. His cardio, pace, and chin are top notch. He is also very dangerous on the mat as well. With solid takedowns and 6 submission wins to his name. Also of note Green has finished all of his opponents in each of his 9 wins. While Rowe will be the much larger man, I think the skill differential between to two will be too great for him to overcome. Gabe is going to close distance and deliver relentless pressure. 1st round KO.
 
Last edited:
Maycee Barber +159 (65" Reach) vs Alex Grasso (66" reach)
Current line: Barber +115

Maycee Barber entered her last fight with all the hype in the world. How did she go from a -850 favorite to a +159 pooch? A loss to Roxanne Modaferri. Where Maycee got taken down to that mat in the 1st slowing her normal barrage of early strikes. Another great way to slow her down is to have her tear her ACL. Which she did somewhere late in the 1st round. Visibily injured, Modaferri was able to get Maycee to the ground in the 2nd and 3rd by having Maycee's knee give out beneath her and jumping on the opportunity. It was a tough fight to watch and it definitely put the brakes on the publics fascination with her as a fighter. I am still shocked Maycee was able to gut out the final two rounds and stay alive. Can't questions her toughness.
Her opponent Alexa Grasso lacks the grappling credentials of Modaferri and prefers to strike. While technically sound she lacks the explosivity in her strikes that Maycee has. To be honest very few women can match Maycees power period. My concern with this fight is Maycee is only 11 months removed from ACL surgery. Has she regained her strength and speed? How much could she possibly have trained in 9 months of recovery and being 2-3 months removed? Is the cardio there? If she is fully recovered and displays no signs of rust she should have a decided advantage standing. And I'd imagine if this fight happened a year ago she would easily be lined -180+. But coming off serious injury and being a year removed from competition it's hard to back Maycee with a ton of confidence. At +159 I feel it's worth the gamble to back the better fighter despite the obvious concerns. Would probably only play at +140 or better. Maycee by TKO.
 
Kelvin Gastelum -219 (71.5" Reach) vs Ian Heinisch (72" reach)
Current line: Gastelum -210

Buy low on Kelvin here. In the midst of a 3 fight losing streak and having been finished for the second time in his career via heel hook by Jack Hermansson, Gastelum finds himself as a 2:1 favorite against a very average Ian Heinisch. Gastelum is very undersized for the division and probably could be a world champ at 155 if he could find a way to lay off the beans and rice. No one has really ever questioned his talent just his diet. As the competition has increased for him at 185, his lack of size has become more pronounced. Struggling to close distance against elite strikers Darren Till and Israel Adesanya and getting rag-dolled by Chris Weidman (his grappling has become a liability just due to the inherent size disadvantage.) This could be a coincidence but all 4 of his losses at 185 happen to be the fighters he faced with the longest reach. Israel Adesanya 80.5", Chris Weidman 78", Jack Hermansson 77.5", Darren Till 75". All of his wins are against opponents with reach of 74" or less. To be fair 3/4 losses have come against top 5 opponents, so he can hang with the big boys. I just have serious doubts if he will ever rise to the top at 185. One things for sure, Kelvin's KO power, chin, and hand speed have translated to the step up in weight. Skill for skill I don't think theres anywhere Heinisch is superior to Kelvin. A monstrous step down in competition for Gastelum from the divisions elite to a fringe top 15 guy. And with a 1/2 inch reach advantage and lacking high level grappling, I find it hard to see how Heinisch will be able to exploit his bigger frame against Kelvin. Also Heinisch's cardio is average and noticeably slows in the 3rd whereas Kelvin never seems to slow. I hate laying wood like this but I think were getting Kelvin on the cheap with his 3 fight skid. He will outclass Heinisch and finish him via TKO.
 
Last edited:
Occasionally but usually only on bigger name fighters. I find it really hard gauging SOS and how they'll stack up when your past fight history is fighting all unknowns on regional circuit. And getting footage of these fights are hard to come by.
From my experience I’ve found in Bellator and LFA the fave money fighter seems to cash in with much greater frequency than UFC
 
[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120


2/27/21
2*Dominick Reyes -110

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Last edited:
Gillian Robertson +153 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +130

Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time
 
[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Seung Woo Choi +101 Opponent dropped out
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
2*Dominick Reyes -110

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Kyler Phillips +169 (72" Reach) vs Song Yadong (67" reach)
Current line: Phillips +145

Hailing from MMA Lab in Arizona (which has produced a littany of legit 135lb talent), Kyler Phillips is a UFC prospect that is oozing with talent. "The Matrix" has good size for the division, diversity in strikes is absurd, striking is creative and unpredictable, grappling is legit, pace/cardio is high level, and he defends well. If you haven't noticed by now I am very high on this young man and if there's anything he lacks it's bigtime raw power. At age 25, his game is constantly evolving and looks better with every outing. He looks drastically different from his split decision loss prior to entering the UFC in 2018 and his 2020 UFC win over Cameron Else. Currently 3-0 in the UFC, with a 6.28-2.05 landed to absorbed ratio (insane), Kyler really hasn't been challenged yet. The competition hasn't been stiff and really thats my only concern and why I did not risk 3u. With that being said, I am trusting that my eyes don't deceive me when evaluating his skillset and am chugging the Kool-Aid.

His opponent Song Yadong is 5-0-1 within the UFC. Song will have a power advantage in this bout without question. This Chinese Team Alpha Male product has very slick boxing and very heavy hands. Song relies almost primarily on his boxing prowess and lacks the diversity Kyler possesses. I really question how well Song will be able to close distance with Kylers constant movement and sound defense combined with a 5" reach disadvantage. Song has also shown to have cardio issues and tends to slow when fights go into the 3rd. And defensively, he is suspect. He has been taken down 7 times in his last 2 fights, is susceptible to leg kicks, and sports a roughly even landed to absorbed ratio +0.65 (not what you would expect from a 5-0 undefeated UFC fighter). Song has been very fortunate in his recent decisions. In 2019 he had a draw vs Cody Stamann and won by split decision vs Marlon Vera in 2020. I had money on his opponent in both bouts and was not happy with either decision. Particularly the Stamann bout. MMADecisions.com had Vera winning 9-8 according to the media and 10-0-4 in Stamanns favor. Truth be told I have a bit of bias against Yadong because I felt I was robbed on both wagers. My emotions aside I truly feel this will be a breakout fight for Phillips. Song has yet to face a fighter that can push the pace like Kyler can and expose his cardio issues. Song is typically a quick starter and I think he will be off balanced with the array of strikes/movement Kyler will throw at him. Expect Kyler to use his length to fight at distance with a good dose of calf kicks. Once Kyler gets Song's heart pumping expect Kyler to utilize takedowns and his offensive blackbelt jiu jitsu game. At UFC 259 I think a star will be born in Kyler Phillips. Kyler by unanimous decision.
 
Last edited:
[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
2*Dominick Reyes -110

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Mike Trizano +100 (71" Reach) vs Rafael Alves (68" reach)
Current line: Trizano +100

Rafael Alves is an elite athlete making his UFC debut. Incredibly explosive and with outstanding coordination, there aren't a whole lot of strikes he isn't able to execute. He throws a variety of hooks, overhands, spinning techniques, and flashy capoeira kicks. Every strike is thrown with bad intentions but the setups for the strikes often aren't there. Instead he relies on his superior speed and athleticism to catch his opponents before they can react. As a result he whiffs often but I have to admit his whiffs are entertaining. If Alves could take a more orthodox approach to his striking I think he would be a real problem, instead he just throws knockout blows 100% of the time. It is quite rare to see him throw more than 1 to 2 strikes a time as he fights in explosive KO bursts. And without setups many of these bursts are reckless, leaving him quite open for counters. With the type of competition he has faced thus far most opponents are looking to keep their head attached to their shoulders rather than trying to counter. His defensive ground game is good. A black belt in BJJ, he attacks well off his back and has a solid guard but never seems to be trying to finish fights on the ground. Often using his explosive scrambles and sub attempts merely to escape and get back to the feet. Trizano is a striker as well but his approach is the polar opposite of Alves. Like many Tiger Schulmann products he has a very polished striking game. Very calculated on the feet, Trizano is methodical, defends very well (63% striking d, 80% takedown d), uses his jab effectively, counters well, and utilizes a heavy dose of calf kicks. Trizano was riding some momentum after winning TUF in 2018 and starting 2-0 in his UFC career against two solid opponents. He suffered his first career loss to a beast of a fighter in Grant Dawson. Trizano was actually controlling the fight when Dawson landed a desperation takedown, took his back, and sunk in the choke. Soon after the fight we learned Trizano was trying to fight through a badly injured knee and had surgery scheduled weeks later causing a prolonged layoff.

This will be the first fight Trizano will fight a striker in the UFC. In his first three bouts he fought much larger grapplers in Joe Gianetti, Luis Pena, and Grant Dawson and continually had to fight off takedown attempts in each round. My one criticism of Trizanos game is he entertains the grappling too much. He defends the shots well but seems content to stay in the clinch or on the ground when he reverses position. If he had an attacking grappling game I could understand, but he seems to be defensive 100% of the time. I think he would be much better served separating when the opportunity arises and get back to his technical striking game. This bout will also be Trizano's first fight in the UFC where he will have the reach advantage. I found this surprising because he was the one who controlled distance in all 3 of his bouts. I think this advantage will be critical against the smaller blitzing Alves. I expect Trizano to use his jab and calf kicks early and often to slow down Alves and keep him at range.

What concerns me about Trizano and why I've downgraded a 0.5* is he has been inactive for almost 2 years now. After finally healing from the knee surgery mentioned earlier, the COVID pandemic hit and made fights much harder to come by. While I think it's safe to assume he's is 100% healthy after 2 years, are his reflexes at game speed with a lightning fast opponent in Alves? Given the quality of strikers he trains with I'd assume so, but it still does concern me a bit. My prediction is Trizano's technical approach allows him to slowly take over the fight, taking the bout via unanimous decision.
 
Last edited:
Gillian Robertson +153 (63" Reach) vs Miranda Maverick (65" reach)
Current line: Robertson +130

Miranda Maverick is young thick framed fighter making her second UFC fight against a much more seasoned Gillian Robertson. Maverick spent her last fight on the feet en route to a 1st round TKO and being hyped up by the like of Jon Anik. Typically though, Maverick can be quite heavy on grappling in her approach. Jojua simply couldn't match up with her power and Maverick felt comfortable standing. I personally don't see the hype, I think there is potential but the skills just aren't there yet. Also the quality of competition she has faced thus far is not great. While she does pack some power for the division, her strikes and reactions in the standup appear slow. And I don't know if it's a lack of flexibility or dexterity but she really seemed to struggled to sink in her hooks deep or cinch a body lock when taking the back of Pearl Gonzalez in her last fight in Invicta. This gave room for Pearl to scramble on the mat and reverse position early in the 1st. Against a BJJ black belt in Robertson who prefers all of her fights to be on the mat, deficiencies like these could be the difference. Robertson has submitted her foe in 5/6 victories in the UFC. Miranda is susceptible to the takedown as well which bodes well for Gill. I bet against Gillian in her last fight and while she loss by unanimous decision, she put Taila Santos (who is an absolute monster imo) in some compromising spots at times. Gillians technique looked sound but she was just fighting a different caliber of fighter in Santos. The victory was never in doubt unless Santos got sub'd but I think the lopsided defeat compounded with Mavericks first rd TKO debut has caused a bit of an overreaction by oddsmakers in this bout. I think the wrong side is favored here and see Robertson by unanimous decision. May add a submission prop closer to fight time
My girlfriend and I have been watching old seasons of The Ultimate Fighter as we didn't watch any while they were aired. We are currently watching season 26 which Gillian Robertson made her debut. She was so green and inexperienced when she showed up for TUF. It's great to see her have a successful career since because she's so easy to root for. Throughout the season she comes across as a sweet girl with a big heart.

Keep up the great work on these write ups smartz, Really enjoy reading your insights
 
My girlfriend and I have been watching old seasons of The Ultimate Fighter as we didn't watch any while they were aired. We are currently watching season 26 which Gillian Robertson made her debut. She was so green and inexperienced when she showed up for TUF. It's great to see her have a successful career since because she's so easy to root for. Throughout the season she comes across as a sweet girl with a big heart.

Keep up the great work on these write ups smartz, Really enjoy reading your insights
Yah I enjoy betting on her fights, for or against. Because she is just so consistent, you know she's always gonna be game and sticks to her strengths on the ground.
 
Jai Herbert +130 & +165 (77" Reach) vs Drakkar Klose (70" reach)
Current line: Herbert +160

This is a weird fight. Two guys pitted against each other that are both coming off highlight reel KO losses in the biggest fights of their career. On top of that both fighters had their opponents on deaths door but somehow got clipped before getting the finish. I personally am a big fan of both these fighters.
Jai Herbert is a dangerous fighter that excels in the standup. In the open floor he throws a variety of kicks, a quality jab, and a blistering right straight. To be honest, all the other strikes are just details when compared to his right straight. It's a motherfucker of a punch. Lightning quick and straight as an arrow it shoots like a piston from his shoulder. And the precision at which he lands with it is scary. He almost gave the unknockoutable Francisco Trinaldo his first ever KO through 30+ fights and 40 years of age, dropping him twice with the right and hurting him bad multiple other times. Somehow in typical Trinaldo fashion he hung around and ultimately landed a vicious shot to the temple, ending Herberts night. In the clinch Herbert uses his Muay Thai background to deliver piercing knees and elbows to his opponent. Distance control for Herbert is solid. His reach is elite for the division and will be sporting a 7" reach advantage in this fight. Herbert amplifies his reach by using constant movement darting in and out of range. He does have lapses where he gets too comfortable and eats some shots himself. But when Herbert is dialed in, he can be very hard to hit. His one weakness is his takedown defense. It is not terrible but it is not a strength either. He does tend to find a way to get back to his feet more often than not. And fortunately for him, Klose is not a ground game expert. Klose does utilize a decent amount of takedowns but its usually later in the fight as he tries to wear his opponent out and secure rounds. His top control is very average and he is not much of a submission threat (0 subs attempted through 7 UFC fights, no sub finishes in career). Drakkar likes to make his fights dirty. While built with a stout powerful frame, Drakkar is shorter for the division and often has to get into the range of his opponent. He does his damage with his hands but his most critical weapon is a smashing calf kick. He whips that kick with very little windup and times it well. In countless fights he has hurt his opponents calves badly, forcing them to switch stances and crippling their movement. Once the defense is compromised he moves in with furious tight combos and really ups the pace. His recipe for success is simple but very few have found a way to stop it. I believe getting in range to land the kick will be a problem for him this fight. Not only does he have to cover a large amount of distance due to the length discrepancy, he has to avoid getting sniped by Jai Herberts right fist. One shot on the button could easily end the night. Klose also likes to work in the clinch with dirty boxing and mixing in takedowns. I am curious to see who wins this battle if the clinch becomes a prominent part of the fight. Both excel in this position.

We've seen Drakkar get visibly frustrated with distance fighters in the past. In his first loss against David Teymur he struggled with Teymurs movement and couldn't find the target. Teymurs evasive movement is probably most similar to Herbert when compared to all his other opponents. If he maintains distance and keeps himself off the mat, I think Herbert is going to end Klose's night. Herbert by 1st round KO.
 
Last edited:
[9-6] +3.04
3* [2-1] +2.39

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

PENDING:

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110
2*Alexander Volkov -160
2*Alex da Silva -115
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500

1*Danilo Marques +205
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125
1*Timur Valiev -150

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*Jai Herbert +130
1*Jai Herbert +165
1.5*Mike Trizano +100
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
2*Dominick Reyes -110

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
 
Frankie Edgar +350 (68" Reach) vs Cory Sandhagen (70" reach)
Current line: Edgar +350

I waited on this wager figuring this line would rise but was surprised when it rose 100 cents from the opener. Edgar should definitely be the dog here but oddsmakers and the market are disrespecting Edgar's skills/body of work. Edgar has dropped 3 of his last 5 but the competition has been fierce (all losses to top 5 opponents). He got KO'd for the 1st and 2nd time in his career after being caught in the 1st round by power punchers Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega and just got outclassed by the great Max Holloway. He easily beat Cub Swanson by unanimous decision and squeaked by Pedro Munhoz in his last bout by a questionable split decision. I personally thought Edgar won but most media outlets did not. It definitely was a very close bout. I thought Edgar looked terrific and Munhoz was a terrible matchup for Edgar. A power puncher who sits in the pocket, has relentless pressure, vicious leg kicks (Edgar relies on movement) and a bjj ace with great takedown defense. He was able to mostly nullify Edgar's strong wrestling and had the cardio to keep up with Edgar's constant movement. And holding the power advantage, he had Edgar on his heels for most of the bout. But Edgar still found his way to land solid combos all night.

This match will be Edgar's 2nd fight since dropping down to 135 (which in all honesty is probably the right weight class for him given his small stature). Ironically, Sandhagen is tied as the tallest opponent he has ever faced in the UFC. This match reminds me alot his fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2017. Edgar had mostly been written off after being outclassed by Jose Aldo for the 2nd time and was facing an undefeated flashy young striker in Yair. Frankie had opened as a -260 favorite and the line was bid down to even by fight time. Edgar outclassed Yair, dragging him to the mat, neutralizing his weapons and beating that ass. My analogy falls short in that the aging Edgar was 4 years younger at the time and Yair has never held the rank or regard Sandhagen currently does. But there are quite a few similarities. Both are elite 5'11 orthodox stance strikers, utilizing flashy strikes, plenty of movement, and questionable takedown defense. While Yair has a dangerous submission game much like Cory, Cory's ability to scramble and find his way back to the feet is superior. However, Yair holds a 60% takedown defense while Sandhagen is just 30%. For those who aren't aware, 30% takedown defense is putrid and seldom seen even with low echelon fighters. I was shocked to see this stat next to a prospect universally respected as a top 3 fighter in the weight class. Cory has been successfully taken down in every UFC bout to date. To be fair, I have not seen Sandhagen in a compromising position on the ground outside of his bouts with Iuri Alcantara and Aljamain Sterling. In 2018 he miraculously survived an incredibly deep armbar (ala Tony Ferguson) from Alcantara and in 2020 suffered an early submission loss to the uber talented Aljamain Sterling. Of his 7 bouts he really has only faced one "grappler" in Sterling (a Serra BJJ Black Belt w/ college wrestling credentials). Like Sterling, Edgar also has a black belt in bjj (under Ricardo Almeida), elite wrestling, solid top control and cardio for days.

Both fighters are very durable and lack true KO power. I see this fight going to the final bell with it being a 3 rounder. If this bout stays on the feet, it's hard to believe Sandhagens diverse striking and length don't win out over Edgar's boxing. But with Sandhagens deficiencies at stopping the takedown and Edgar's high level grappling, I think Edgar has a much better chance than +350. I am confident Edgar gets him to the mat whether or not he can control Sandhagen there will determine the victor. I will be rooting for the future hall of famer to force the MMA world to still view him as a force to be reckoned with. Edgar by decision (added 0.25u on Edgar by decision +500).
 
Last edited:
Frankie Edgar +350 (68" Reach) vs Cory Sandhagen (70" reach)
Current line: Edgar +350

I waited on this wager figuring this line would rise but was surprised when it rose 100 cents from the opener. Edgar should definitely be the dog here but oddsmakers and the market are disrespecting Edgar's skills/body of work. Edgar has dropped 3 of his last 5 but the competition has been fierce (all losses to top 5 opponents). He got KO'd for the 1st and 2nd time in his career after being caught in the 1st round by power punchers Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega and just got outclassed by the great Max Holloway. He easily beat Cub Swanson by unanimous decision and squeaked by Pedro Munhoz in his last bout by a questionable split decision. I personally thought Edgar won but most media outlets did not. It definitely was a very close bout. I thought Edgar looked terrific and Munhoz was a terrible matchup for Edgar. A power puncher who sits in the pocket, has relentless pressure, vicious leg kicks (Edgar relies on movement) and a bjj ace with great takedown defense. He was able to mostly nullify Edgar's strong wrestling and had the cardio to keep up with Edgar's constant movement. And holding the power advantage, he had Edgar on his heels for most of the bout. But Edgar still found his way to land solid combos all night.

This match will be Edgar's 2nd fight since dropping down to 135 (which in all honesty is probably the right weight class for him given his small stature). Ironically, Sandhagen is tied as the tallest opponent he has ever faced in the UFC. This match reminds me alot his fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2017. Edgar had mostly been written off after being outclassed by Jose Aldo for the 2nd time and was facing an undefeated flashy young striker in Yair. Frankie had opened as a -260 favorite and the line was bid down to even by fight time. Edgar outclassed Yair, dragging him to the mat, neutralizing his weapons and beating that ass. My analogy falls short in that the aging Edgar was 4 years younger at the time and Yair has never held the rank or regard Sandhagen currently does. But there are quite a few similarities. Both are elite 5'11 orthodox stance strikers, utilizing flashy strikes, plenty of movement, and questionable takedown defense. While Yair has a dangerous submission game much like Cory, Cory's ability to scramble and find his way back to the feet is superior. However, Yair holds a 60% takedown defense while Sandhagen is just 30%. For those who aren't aware, 30% takedown defense is putrid and seldom seen even with low echelon fighters. I was shocked to see this stat next to a prospect universally respected as a top 3 fighter in the weight class. Cory has been successfully taken down in every UFC bout to date. To be fair, I have not seen Sandhagen in a compromising position on the ground outside of his bouts with Iuri Alcantara and Aljamain Sterling. In 2018 he miraculously survived an incredibly deep armbar (ala Tony Ferguson) from Alcantara and in 2020 suffered an early submission loss to the uber talented Aljamain Sterling. Of his 7 bouts he really has only faced one "grappler" in Sterling (a Serra BJJ Black Belt w/ college wrestling credentials). Like Sterling, Edgar also has a black belt in bjj (under Ricardo Almeida), elite wrestling, solid top control and cardio for days.

Both fighters are very durable and lack true KO power. I see this fight going to the final bell with it being a 3 rounder. If this bout stays on the feet, it's hard to believe Sandhagens diverse striking and length don't win out over Edgar's boxing. But with Sandhagens deficiencies at stopping the takedown and Edgar's high level grappling, I think Edgar has a much better chance than +350. I am confident Edgar gets him to the mat whether or not he can control Sandhagen there will determine the victor. I will be rooting for the future hall of famer to force the MMA world to still view him as a force to be reckoned with. Edgar by decision (added 0.25u on Edgar by decision +500).
Love this selection as well. For all of the reasons you point out, so much value in the Edgar price
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Frankie Edgar +350 (68" Reach) vs Cory Sandhagen (70" reach)
Current line: Edgar +350

I waited on this wager figuring this line would rise but was surprised when it rose 100 cents from the opener. Edgar should definitely be the dog here but oddsmakers and the market are disrespecting Edgar's skills/body of work. Edgar has dropped 3 of his last 5 but the competition has been fierce (all losses to top 5 opponents). He got KO'd for the 1st and 2nd time in his career after being caught in the 1st round by power punchers Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega and just got outclassed by the great Max Holloway. He easily beat Cub Swanson by unanimous decision and squeaked by Pedro Munhoz in his last bout by a questionable split decision. I personally thought Edgar won but most media outlets did not. It definitely was a very close bout. I thought Edgar looked terrific and Munhoz was a terrible matchup for Edgar. A power puncher who sits in the pocket, has relentless pressure, vicious leg kicks (Edgar relies on movement) and a bjj ace with great takedown defense. He was able to mostly nullify Edgar's strong wrestling and had the cardio to keep up with Edgar's constant movement. And holding the power advantage, he had Edgar on his heels for most of the bout. But Edgar still found his way to land solid combos all night.

This match will be Edgar's 2nd fight since dropping down to 135 (which in all honesty is probably the right weight class for him given his small stature). Ironically, Sandhagen is tied as the tallest opponent he has ever faced in the UFC. This match reminds me alot his fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2017. Edgar had mostly been written off after being outclassed by Jose Aldo for the 2nd time and was facing an undefeated flashy young striker in Yair. Frankie had opened as a -260 favorite and the line was bid down to even by fight time. Edgar outclassed Yair, dragging him to the mat, neutralizing his weapons and beating that ass. My analogy falls short in that the aging Edgar was 4 years younger at the time and Yair has never held the rank or regard Sandhagen currently does. But there are quite a few similarities. Both are elite 5'11 orthodox stance strikers, utilizing flashy strikes, plenty of movement, and questionable takedown defense. While Yair has a dangerous submission game much like Cory, Cory's ability to scramble and find his way back to the feet is superior. However, Yair holds a 60% takedown defense while Sandhagen is just 30%. For those who aren't aware, 30% takedown defense is putrid and seldom seen even with low echelon fighters. I was shocked to see this stat next to a prospect universally respected as a top 3 fighter in the weight class. Cory has been successfully taken down in every UFC bout to date. To be fair, I have not seen Sandhagen in a compromising position on the ground outside of his bouts with Iuri Alcantara and Aljamain Sterling. In 2018 he miraculously survived an incredibly deep armbar (ala Tony Ferguson) from Alcantara and in 2020 suffered an early submission loss to the uber talented Aljamain Sterling. Of his 7 bouts he really has only faced one "grappler" in Sterling (a Serra BJJ Black Belt w/ college wrestling credentials). Like Sterling, Edgar also has a black belt in bjj (under Ricardo Almeida), elite wrestling, solid top control and cardio for days.

Both fighters are very durable and lack true KO power. I see this fight going to the final bell with it being a 3 rounder. If this bout stays on the feet, it's hard to believe Sandhagens diverse striking and length don't win out over Edgar's boxing. But with Sandhagens deficiencies at stopping the takedown and Edgar's high level grappling, I think Edgar has a much better chance than +350. I am confident Edgar gets him to the mat whether or not he can control Sandhagen there will determine the victor. I will be rooting for the future hall of famer to force the MMA world to still view him as a force to be reckoned with. Edgar by decision (added 0.25u on Edgar by decision +500).


"Cardio for days"

I like that expression.

Wish I owned that quality.
 
Top