Nikita Krylov +250 (77.5" Reach) vs Magomed Ankalaev (75" reach)
Current line: Krylov +260
Magomed Ankalaev is a killer and another Dagestan native who is quickly rising up the ranks. He should be 14-0 if he did not get caught in a triangle with 10 seconds to go vs Paul Craig. A fight he was absolutely dominating for 14:50. We really have not seen him in trouble throughout his UFC career. That could be due to the competition as he has not ever really been tested. He has yet to fight anyone that even has top 10 potential. To give you an idea, in my opinion, the most well rounded, technical fighter he has fought in the UFC is Klidson Abreu. And I'd imagine most fans would struggle to recall who Klidson is when asked. Nonetheless, the competition put in front of him is out of his control and he has dominated everyone willing to sign the dotted line. A true counterstriker, he will feel you out with jabs and feints but is really trying to get his foe to commit to distance with a strike and retaliate with a bomb. He slips in and out of range beautifully, reading and reacting every second of the fight. Much like McGregor, he is so confident in his range control he often evades strikes by inches in order to stay in range for his counter attack. That maybe one of his flaws as well because I have seen him get clipped when he miscalculates where he is safe and where he is not. He has forced all of his opponents to fight his slow sniping pace because his defense and power are so good. He has gained the respect of his opponents very quickly in all of his fights. He has won his last 5, finishing 4 and KO'ing his last 3. Hand speed is second to none and the accuracy of his strikes are impressive. Most of his damage is done with his hands but his kicks whip opponents with incredible speed and accuracy as well. And while he prefers to stand, he has shown outstanding top control with vicious ground and pound when the fight hits the mat. I often wonder why he doesn't use these other weapons with more regularity. I assume it's to conserve energy. So far his cardio and durability have yet to be questioned in any of his fights. His upcoming bout against Nikita Krylov will be an interesting test. This is a massive step up in competition for Ankalaev. I think for both fighters this will be by far the best striker they have faced in the UFC.
While it seems like Ankalaev is the up and comer because Krylov is a longtime UFC vet with 34 pro fights to his name, they are both 28 years of age. We have watched Krylov grow up and improve dramatically over his UFC career. Krylov made his UFC debut as a chubby, undersized, 20 year old in the heavyweight division. He went 1-1 at heavyweight, knocking out a very good Walt Harris and losing to Soa Paleilei before dropping to his true weight of 205. Krylov being a blackbelt in Kyokushin Karate prefers to stand. Using his length and quick feet to pressure his opponents with sweeping front kicks and powerful punches. Early in his career he would blitz his opponents often finishing them in the 1st or early 2nd round. As he has matured, his aggressive approach seems much more measured. After gassing himself out a few times, I think he has learned the importance of conserving energy because as the competition has stiffened getting his opponent out quickly isn't always an option. Most every fighter he has fought has tried to take the fight to the mat to neutralize his standup. Since 2014 (Age 21), Krylov has gone 11-3 in the UFC. All 3 of those losses have come to elite grapplers in Misha Cirkunov, Glover Teixeira, and current UFC champ Jan Blachowicz. Krylov's ground game has grown immensely since entering the UFC. Takedown defense is much improved and his ability to be offensive on the mat and escape/reverse position have improved as well. When backing Krylov, Id still prefer him to keep the fight standing but I don't think grappling is a weakness for him anymore. My main concern with the grappling is it seems to fatigue him much more rapidly than standing exchanges. Cardio is probably the one area I think Ankalaev has a true advantage over Krylov. Ankalaev has been able to maintain his slow and steady pace and has stayed fresh for all 15 minutes. Krylov has slowed with high paced grappling. But if Krylov is able to dictate pace, maybe we see Ankalaev's cardio get tested? Ankalaev might be the first opponent Krylov has fought that is not be interested in taking the fight to the ground, so it will be interesting to see how fresh Nikita is if this fight goes to the 3rd. Lastly, Krylov's chin is outstanding. He really has never been finished on the feet in his entire career. He has one TKO to his record 8 years ago vs 265lb Soa Paleilei, but really Krylov just gassed himself, rolled over, and gave up. He was not severely rocked by a strike.
Krylov's kicks, length, and power are going to give Ankalaev a little more to think about than any of his recent opponents. I think it's possible we see both fighters try to take this fight to the mat at some point during the fight. I believe Ankalaev should be the favorite as he seems to be the more polished of the two. But Krylov is a very dangerous and high level striker in his own right. All in all, the line just seems too wide to me. I think Krylov has been written off after losing 2 of his last 4 bouts. (Losing to Glover by a razor thin decision and being submitted by the champ Blachowicz). To make matters worse his win over Johnny Walker came 1 fight too late because the Walker hype train was de-railed 1 fight prior and when he loss vs Jan in 2018 we didn't really know how good Blachowicz was. Parlay that with Ankalaev looking invincible and surging on a win streak, you get alot of recency bias. I am not really sure how Krylov wins because I could see him starting slow and feeling out the dangerous Ankalaev or trying to catch him off guard with his normal pressure game. Win or lose I think in either scenario whoever is laying -320+ is going to sweat. If I had to guess, I think the more experienced and battle tested Nikita Krylov takes it by 1st round TKO.