rainbow
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
He has ZERO CLUE on the other side of the counter...
EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
- Thread starter Fezzik
- Start date
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
rainbow
EOG Master
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Yeah it would take 4 games to make it a break even prop, and 7 moves to make it profitable, just betting the spreads fading. maybe not as profitable as if you got the very best, but definitely more of an advantage if you didnt.
I thought you were smarter than that. 35-24 is a small sample size. If someone gets the worst of a line move 10 times and 4 of those 10 lose then he is 31-28, and is barely breaking even, and losing after he pays the service more than likely.
Dont fall into the trap of win percentages, especially with so small a sample. A HUGE difference between 35-24 and 640-445, and an even bigger difference between that and 2305-1602.
While math rarely has any part in sports betting VARIANCE does. So with small sample sizes like that variance is a ball buster. Wouldnt be too hard to find 4 plays he lost due to a line move(with his 59 releases), would be impossible to find 71 line moves (what it would take to make the 640-445 give similar returns).
Seriously guys dont have a clue sometimes when it come to gambling. raised on tout speak and rhetoric and what a guys win % is versus what his ROI is.
Also he weights his plays, maybe only 2 weights and a majority of them are a single weight, but ANY change in bet size negates ANY mythical win or loss percentages when they talk about overall record.
is it really this hard?
Yeah it would take 4 games to make it a break even prop, and 7 moves to make it profitable, just betting the spreads fading. maybe not as profitable as if you got the very best, but definitely more of an advantage if you didnt.
I thought you were smarter than that. 35-24 is a small sample size. If someone gets the worst of a line move 10 times and 4 of those 10 lose then he is 31-28, and is barely breaking even, and losing after he pays the service more than likely.
Dont fall into the trap of win percentages, especially with so small a sample. A HUGE difference between 35-24 and 640-445, and an even bigger difference between that and 2305-1602.
While math rarely has any part in sports betting VARIANCE does. So with small sample sizes like that variance is a ball buster. Wouldnt be too hard to find 4 plays he lost due to a line move(with his 59 releases), would be impossible to find 71 line moves (what it would take to make the 640-445 give similar returns).
Seriously guys dont have a clue sometimes when it come to gambling. raised on tout speak and rhetoric and what a guys win % is versus what his ROI is.
Also he weights his plays, maybe only 2 weights and a majority of them are a single weight, but ANY change in bet size negates ANY mythical win or loss percentages when they talk about overall record.
is it really this hard?
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Yes of course it's a small sample. I don't think anyone at EOG rails against small samples more than me, I was just laughing at calling it "decent" suggesting you could do better. Regardless, variance and luck are the principal determinants of whether a gambler wins a given game or a small-sampled contest, but over 2000+ plays variance is largely muted and the gamblers' true edge emerges.
ROI:
(35+24)*1.1 = 64.9 units risked
35 - (24*1.1) = 8.6 units won
More impressive ROI than win % over the small sample. Not sure what your point was here.
Yes of course it's a small sample. I don't think anyone at EOG rails against small samples more than me, I was just laughing at calling it "decent" suggesting you could do better. Regardless, variance and luck are the principal determinants of whether a gambler wins a given game or a small-sampled contest, but over 2000+ plays variance is largely muted and the gamblers' true edge emerges.
ROI:
(35+24)*1.1 = 64.9 units risked
35 - (24*1.1) = 8.6 units won
More impressive ROI than win % over the small sample. Not sure what your point was here.
rainbow
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
No, its real simple... Just beat the closing line by 2 or more points and its IMPOSSIBLE to LOSE PERIOD... PS: Stay away from the other side of the counter, because you will be paying WISEGUYS off every week with SQUARES money, sure you will win but you will MINIMIZE your WINNINGS for the year...
steak tartar
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
on a random 10 games you have 4 of them landing on the number?........if 40% of nfl games landed it wouldnt matter if fast eddie went 59-0 or 0-59.....there would be no one to bet with
on a random 10 games you have 4 of them landing on the number?........if 40% of nfl games landed it wouldnt matter if fast eddie went 59-0 or 0-59.....there would be no one to bet with
rainbow
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Yep, I'm not going nowhere...
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Wantit, please stop bragging about your data. I would lay 4 to 1 that you don't have any database I don't currently have, or could get within 24 hours if I really cared. I would like to see a screenshot of your column names just because I don't think you really know how to properly use your data, but that's beside the point.
If you think that 47% vs. 53% (or 48 vs 52) over 8,000 plays is a negligible difference than this conversation can't advance any further. When the break-even win rate against -105 is 51.22% and 52.38% vs. -110 that's the difference between winning and losing. When Matchbook was around 50.5% was enough to make money.
Wantit, please stop bragging about your data. I would lay 4 to 1 that you don't have any database I don't currently have, or could get within 24 hours if I really cared. I would like to see a screenshot of your column names just because I don't think you really know how to properly use your data, but that's beside the point.
If you think that 47% vs. 53% (or 48 vs 52) over 8,000 plays is a negligible difference than this conversation can't advance any further. When the break-even win rate against -105 is 51.22% and 52.38% vs. -110 that's the difference between winning and losing. When Matchbook was around 50.5% was enough to make money.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
lol my thoughts exactly. I hate winning that extra 24% of the time because I beat the closing line.
lol my thoughts exactly. I hate winning that extra 24% of the time because I beat the closing line.
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
YUP
(For the record, it's still around). :+waving-5
YUP
(For the record, it's still around). :+waving-5
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
I dont have any he doesnt release his plays. I am just pointing out it isnt hard for him to become a break even capper, since everyone here agrees he moves the lines (the one thing most agree on) if a very small number of his games move enough to become losers.
That is why I have asked for him to give a list of plays or even his results if he has them of how many of his releases lost versus a number that appeared after he released them.
If he moved every single game a point or more then it wouldnt be hard to find a couple pushes to be sure, if they move 2 points then it might not be hard to find a loss or two either. That is what people here dont get, the more the line moves the more margin for going against. And all the bullshit that these guys know enough that their moves win regardless is fucking retarded.
got some wannabe bookmaker here spouting the same shit for years. When he is working for a place that doesnt want you to really know how it works. So of course they keep the company line. Why would a guy want you to figure out how they run their business if youre in the position of trying to beat them? Especially since they are gambling as well rather than balancing action.
I beat the greek for a lot of money back a few years ago, so either rainbow doesnt really know jack or he isnt as observant as he thinks he is. because I am sure if they keep a list or watch people who beat them up like I did for about 4 years I am sure my name is there. Also surprised shrinky dink didnt mention it a time or two.
Either ay I am done, you guys can keep living in your fantasy land.
Ed is a good guy and I am sure he means well, but the way he sells and releases his picks just isnt going to work for more than a handful of people, and none if the books are getting his numbers before they are released or even at release. And in the long run guys who get his picks, line shop and use correlated plays will do better fading him than a majority of his clients will following a play where the line has moved, assuming that is he moves the lines enough. Bottom line is use common sense and play bets that have a chance to win and where you get the best of it regardless.
I dont have any he doesnt release his plays. I am just pointing out it isnt hard for him to become a break even capper, since everyone here agrees he moves the lines (the one thing most agree on) if a very small number of his games move enough to become losers.
That is why I have asked for him to give a list of plays or even his results if he has them of how many of his releases lost versus a number that appeared after he released them.
If he moved every single game a point or more then it wouldnt be hard to find a couple pushes to be sure, if they move 2 points then it might not be hard to find a loss or two either. That is what people here dont get, the more the line moves the more margin for going against. And all the bullshit that these guys know enough that their moves win regardless is fucking retarded.
got some wannabe bookmaker here spouting the same shit for years. When he is working for a place that doesnt want you to really know how it works. So of course they keep the company line. Why would a guy want you to figure out how they run their business if youre in the position of trying to beat them? Especially since they are gambling as well rather than balancing action.
I beat the greek for a lot of money back a few years ago, so either rainbow doesnt really know jack or he isnt as observant as he thinks he is. because I am sure if they keep a list or watch people who beat them up like I did for about 4 years I am sure my name is there. Also surprised shrinky dink didnt mention it a time or two.
Either ay I am done, you guys can keep living in your fantasy land.
Ed is a good guy and I am sure he means well, but the way he sells and releases his picks just isnt going to work for more than a handful of people, and none if the books are getting his numbers before they are released or even at release. And in the long run guys who get his picks, line shop and use correlated plays will do better fading him than a majority of his clients will following a play where the line has moved, assuming that is he moves the lines enough. Bottom line is use common sense and play bets that have a chance to win and where you get the best of it regardless.
rainbow
EOG Master
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
His plays are posted on their website 10 minutes after the game starts...
His plays are posted on their website 10 minutes after the game starts...
rainbow
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
We have HUNDREDS that are LIFETIME WINNERS in our office... You must think you are the LONE RANGER...LOL.. Or you just don't know any better... I EARN off of WISEGUYS PERIOD... Not off of PROPS, or FUTURES... Thats why the LIMITS are low...
rainbow
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
OK last comment, that isnt what I said, and another case of people getting data and not knowing how to interpret it. I said in the very small sample where the line did move that was the difference.
that 24% is a very small number, I just used percentages to sound like a tout, but out of 2400 total games where the line moved that much that 24% represents less than 50 (lot less) where the guy who had that specific number was a winner and everyone else lost or pushed.
As for fish I doubt it very much, took years and years to get it all, and it still isnt complete. You might get a a bunch of games, might even be able to find a few sites with line move history. But I doubt you would have the capability of searching it or seeing the stuff I can.
And even my stuff isnt fool proof. all it does is give a lot of examples. So I can only state things in relative terms. I cant even tell you how many games closed -5 for example, because I have about 6 different returns when I check each one. And even if I stretch it to count -4/4.5/5/5.5/6 I get cross data. (where the 4 and 4.5 were games that were 3.5 and moved up for example) The next step is to eliminate common games and just get singular result that takes everything into account. But I ahd to get the line move put in first, which took the guy a long time to figure out.
But ultimately it is only good for debunking these sorts of arguments, it doesnt do anything to help pick winners or predict winners. It just give historical results at certain break points. So while some might think that data is great it really isnt since every game played going forward changes those results.
OK last comment, that isnt what I said, and another case of people getting data and not knowing how to interpret it. I said in the very small sample where the line did move that was the difference.
that 24% is a very small number, I just used percentages to sound like a tout, but out of 2400 total games where the line moved that much that 24% represents less than 50 (lot less) where the guy who had that specific number was a winner and everyone else lost or pushed.
As for fish I doubt it very much, took years and years to get it all, and it still isnt complete. You might get a a bunch of games, might even be able to find a few sites with line move history. But I doubt you would have the capability of searching it or seeing the stuff I can.
And even my stuff isnt fool proof. all it does is give a lot of examples. So I can only state things in relative terms. I cant even tell you how many games closed -5 for example, because I have about 6 different returns when I check each one. And even if I stretch it to count -4/4.5/5/5.5/6 I get cross data. (where the 4 and 4.5 were games that were 3.5 and moved up for example) The next step is to eliminate common games and just get singular result that takes everything into account. But I ahd to get the line move put in first, which took the guy a long time to figure out.
But ultimately it is only good for debunking these sorts of arguments, it doesnt do anything to help pick winners or predict winners. It just give historical results at certain break points. So while some might think that data is great it really isnt since every game played going forward changes those results.
steak tartar
EOG Dedicated
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
i dont care if ras wins or loses every game.........i was just pointing out your 40% land on the nfl is all......not arguing about anything else
i dont care if ras wins or loses every game.........i was just pointing out your 40% land on the nfl is all......not arguing about anything else
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
well if i have time or if someone wants to catalog them I can run them at the end of the year and give full results versus line released at(although that one might be hard since I cant search on time stamp but I am sure it will be his personal record), closer, "best available", "worst available".
But I imagine by then this will be long forgotten.
well if i have time or if someone wants to catalog them I can run them at the end of the year and give full results versus line released at(although that one might be hard since I cant search on time stamp but I am sure it will be his personal record), closer, "best available", "worst available".
But I imagine by then this will be long forgotten.
High Times
EOG Master
High Times
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
And Rainbow
When you say bettors who beat the closing lines always win it's not because of the lines moving, it's because they picked the winner and then line moved.
It's a who came first thing. The chicken or the egg?
What's more important?
Picking the winner OR being on the line move?
:doh1
And Rainbow
When you say bettors who beat the closing lines always win it's not because of the lines moving, it's because they picked the winner and then line moved.
It's a who came first thing. The chicken or the egg?
What's more important?
Picking the winner OR being on the line move?
:doh1
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Now it all makes sense, people who go after others on a personal basis always have skeletons of their own. Eddie Angle is exactly who I said he was. Why EOG does business with this fraud is beyond me, come on guys you can do better then allowing this two-bit tout to run amok over your place of business.
Now it all makes sense, people who go after others on a personal basis always have skeletons of their own. Eddie Angle is exactly who I said he was. Why EOG does business with this fraud is beyond me, come on guys you can do better then allowing this two-bit tout to run amok over your place of business.
High Times
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
These forums are so filled with frauds that they are looked at as the sharp posters.
The sharp posters (who have years of this gambling) get looked at like they are full of shit.
Fucking using past results (of line moves) to prove a point when there could/are many, many reasons a line moves and only half of them are from actual bets.
Pick and choose stats is a complete joke, but people fall for it every time!
These forums are so filled with frauds that they are looked at as the sharp posters.
The sharp posters (who have years of this gambling) get looked at like they are full of shit.
Fucking using past results (of line moves) to prove a point when there could/are many, many reasons a line moves and only half of them are from actual bets.
Pick and choose stats is a complete joke, but people fall for it every time!
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
High, there is direct correlation between winning and beating the closers. That said you are one of few that sees right between Eddie, I give you credit for that. Winners don't need to hustle their opinions, they bet them. He's a con (and hangs around/does business with these types) and a fraud. Makes me physically ill this site doesn't have the balls to stand up to this tout and send his shit to the Asylum where it belongs. Anyone sending him a dime would have to be nuts.
High, there is direct correlation between winning and beating the closers. That said you are one of few that sees right between Eddie, I give you credit for that. Winners don't need to hustle their opinions, they bet them. He's a con (and hangs around/does business with these types) and a fraud. Makes me physically ill this site doesn't have the balls to stand up to this tout and send his shit to the Asylum where it belongs. Anyone sending him a dime would have to be nuts.
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
You have zero expertise, knowledge, or credibility on this subject. You've already demonstrated a blatant disregard for facts, evidence, and testimony. A better question for mods would be why they continue to allow you to spew misinformation out.
You have zero expertise, knowledge, or credibility on this subject. You've already demonstrated a blatant disregard for facts, evidence, and testimony. A better question for mods would be why they continue to allow you to spew misinformation out.
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Any comment on this tough guy? You wanted to get off the issues and on to personal stuff, fill us in on your dealings with other criminals you little bitch.
PS - props to 2+2 for exposing this piece of shit tout.
Any comment on this tough guy? You wanted to get off the issues and on to personal stuff, fill us in on your dealings with other criminals you little bitch.
PS - props to 2+2 for exposing this piece of shit tout.
FISHHEAD
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Eddie, to be honest, you are not coming across well here on the forums of EOG..................
Having said that, I reckon bad press is nearly as productive as good press in the tout business.
For the record, I have no dog in this fight.
I do enjoy the conversations between McIrish(and others) and you though, good reading at times.
Eddie, to be honest, you are not coming across well here on the forums of EOG..................
Having said that, I reckon bad press is nearly as productive as good press in the tout business.
For the record, I have no dog in this fight.
I do enjoy the conversations between McIrish(and others) and you though, good reading at times.
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
What is so hard for you to understand? You can't accept that a team of hard working talented handicappers combining subjective/informational handicapping with high level statistical modeling cannot beat college basketball, college football, and WNBA markets? The evidence of our edge is so overwhelming you would have to be a complete moron not to see it. Yet you refuse to acklowedge it, only further illustrating your bias and lack of credibility.
When we have monster seasons, you dismiss them by saying "no one could get the number", when we have one losing season in a decade, you point to it repeatedly in numerous threads. Yet, we continue to be the most influential service in the U.S. market, even when releasing free plays on Twitter and our message board.
Who should people believe, the market itself or PatrickMcIrish?
What is so hard for you to understand? You can't accept that a team of hard working talented handicappers combining subjective/informational handicapping with high level statistical modeling cannot beat college basketball, college football, and WNBA markets? The evidence of our edge is so overwhelming you would have to be a complete moron not to see it. Yet you refuse to acklowedge it, only further illustrating your bias and lack of credibility.
When we have monster seasons, you dismiss them by saying "no one could get the number", when we have one losing season in a decade, you point to it repeatedly in numerous threads. Yet, we continue to be the most influential service in the U.S. market, even when releasing free plays on Twitter and our message board.
Who should people believe, the market itself or PatrickMcIrish?
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Sorry to hear you say that, but at least I know what I am talking about on the subject at hand.
Sorry to hear you say that, but at least I know what I am talking about on the subject at hand.
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
See post #125. Not much else to say about it.
See post #125. Not much else to say about it.
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Don't have to believe me, CBB which is your bread and butter right from the horse's mouth:
That's the most current record we have, the books made adjustments and you were unable to. And unlike some of your CFB seasons where you brag about %'s you have a lot more then 35-55 picks in this sample. I just think it's very duplicitous that you refuse to admit none of your records (that you keep yourself) reflect lines that are not available to your customers. Also these units never reflect any sort of reflection of the subscription fees that your customers play. It's like they don't exist in your world when they come right out of a player's bankroll. You're so busy with the organ and monkey grinding routine you cherry pick the information you post on, anything for a dollar. Bottom line you're a loser, in life and in the game of sportsbetting. A 40 year old man out here groveling for money so they can hear your opinion, an opinion that fucking buried everyone last season in college hoops. Carry on punk.
Don't have to believe me, CBB which is your bread and butter right from the horse's mouth:
That's the most current record we have, the books made adjustments and you were unable to. And unlike some of your CFB seasons where you brag about %'s you have a lot more then 35-55 picks in this sample. I just think it's very duplicitous that you refuse to admit none of your records (that you keep yourself) reflect lines that are not available to your customers. Also these units never reflect any sort of reflection of the subscription fees that your customers play. It's like they don't exist in your world when they come right out of a player's bankroll. You're so busy with the organ and monkey grinding routine you cherry pick the information you post on, anything for a dollar. Bottom line you're a loser, in life and in the game of sportsbetting. A 40 year old man out here groveling for money so they can hear your opinion, an opinion that fucking buried everyone last season in college hoops. Carry on punk.
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Fish, please don't kneel down and kiss this guy's ass. He's been thrown off most reputable forums and even the books in Vegas don't want this idiot hanging around. I heard he's out in the lobby trying to sell plays to tourists. I guess there was no bank robbers in town you could squeeze some extra money out of eh Edward? Won't you whine some more, hopefully some bottomfeeding moron will come out and defend you for a 10 game package this season.
Fish, please don't kneel down and kiss this guy's ass. He's been thrown off most reputable forums and even the books in Vegas don't want this idiot hanging around. I heard he's out in the lobby trying to sell plays to tourists. I guess there was no bank robbers in town you could squeeze some extra money out of eh Edward? Won't you whine some more, hopefully some bottomfeeding moron will come out and defend you for a 10 game package this season.
Mammon
EOG Master
Re: EOG has gone totally downhiill, my post on RAS .............
Pat can you run 232-220 -8.6 vs closer and the losing units and vs half the time to the closer and the losing units at USA BOOKS not pinny . Matchbook is gone Fast Edward!! I would be glad to put you in touch with RickA for RAS' "widely available numbers."
Pat can you run 232-220 -8.6 vs closer and the losing units and vs half the time to the closer and the losing units at USA BOOKS not pinny . Matchbook is gone Fast Edward!! I would be glad to put you in touch with RickA for RAS' "widely available numbers."
op: