NBA for opening week

ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
I agree with you as I was close to playing Toronto as public is hammering Chicago but it seems Toronto just can't beat a playoff caliber team at home. Probably a pass?
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I think so. everything I've played is very solid, IMO. I would be shocked to not make money today. no reason to press and I will probably pass on NJ as well. I am trying to stay away from teams that have a lot of question marks such as frigging Milwaukee. I am going to bet Phil over. either 1.5% or maybe a little more. this time of year I pay a little extra attention to Spiro's leans (thegreek).
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Dallas over 94 for .4%
already have this in the parlay, but both teams shooting a fairly low percentage and combined for more than this despite that. It's a close game and I feel that things tend to stay the same rather than change.
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

speaking of Spiro's leans, seems he is leaning with this 2nd half over. Grabbed a 94 at beginning of half and like also. Plus pace has been a tad faster (average pace so far) for a game lined this low.
 
B

Bruce Dickinson

Guest
Re: NBA for opening week

LOL add me too the list of O94 at Greek, .....95 now, on that parlay too. Solid looking card ATX. GL
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

seems like the public is all over New Jersey, line keeps moving upward. I found a Minnestoa +5.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
I played MIN +5, I hope ATX joins the party.
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I was at a different party, but I was a part of this one too...:cheers I had to get away for a little while watched the 2nd half of a boring Final Four game and the first half of an OK Spurs/New Orleans game. When I called in and was quoted +4.5 on Min I bought a half point because I wasn't in a position where I could check injuries etc. I told everybody there not to tell me about any scores or anything because it is break time. When one of my buddies saw me pick up the phone he knew I was putting in a couple of others and he gave me the thumbs up sign so that was a really cool feeling, knowing I probably won in Atlanta and no reason to pass. Anyways I have pretty much gone over what I intended to do in the regular season, and hope to exercise caution because this can be a very tricky string of games. The final challenge for me is the last 10 games or so. That is a subset in itself. And then a 180 when the playoffs start into one of the final subsets of the NBA. I'm an Aries so I adapt to sudden changes well. At least that is what a girlfriend the psychiatrist says.

Utah/New York under 213 for 2.5%
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

CAVS to win it all, just waiting to get it all down.

I've seen every NBA Champion and all their boxscores for the last 10+ years...

CAVS are getting a big piece of my ACTION. 85 Celtic type shit...
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Was wondering how long it takes you to go thru a card the size of todays, a typical friday card. What time do you start and how many hours a day do you say you put into betting sports? This your only job?

As for poker, online I would assume? What is the story behind all that? How long you been playing and do you well enough with it for it too be worth your time or do you just do it to pass the time? Hear the online games are so tough t beat nowadays just wondering how that is going, you have losing months in that? Which is better for you sports or poker?

Just curious, as always thanks.
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12-16 hours a day 5-6 days a week

4-8 hours a day 2-3 days a week

most of it is just watching line moves. after 5 minutes I have a strong opinion, after 30-45 minutes I usually have it all but figured out then adjust according to public info and line moves etc.

but I usually look at everything 3 times, at 3 different times. I'm not an early morning person so you have to imagine the struggle to get up before the moves. that is why it is important to develop an advantage in ALL sports. I wake up I bet, I win. You have to be able to know this, demonstrate it, and understand that this is not ALWAYS true, keep learning, make adjustments, dont get too high, dont get too low, repeat cycle, get out. I've given far too much away as far as any sane person would proffer, it's not that I know that much, it's just that this is so easy, it's a fine line between being an idiot and making this too complicated, just following some general guidelines will make just about anyone a slightly advantage player, but the thing is, the reason money can be made is that this market is so heavily influenced by opinions, maybe more so than politics, you can slap someone in the face with a winning proposition but in sports EVERYONE has their OWN opinion. Hell, EVERYONE knew Obama would win. Sports? The majority is so often wrong no matter the FACTS.

Poker: Started playing live about 4 years ago. Did well. Doing well. Moving up, using similar $mgmnt system as sports, I win a specific amount I move up. Listened to a lot of what Jesus Chris suggests. I'm a much better live player IMO, but you can make more online b/c of the hand frequency. I bet on sports for a living, but I bet on cards with a passion. As I told Munson, my goal is to be a poker star.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
CAVS to win it all, just waiting to get it all down.

I've seen every NBA Champion and all their boxscores for the last 10+ years...

CAVS are getting a big piece of my ACTION. 85 Celtic type shit...
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Cavs or Lakers a stronger position?
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Utah/New York under 213 for 2.5%

That is a big % for you. I bet the total yesterday in lal/ATL blindly based on how big you were on it, thanks. May do the same here.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Utah/New York under 213 for 2.5%

That is a big % for you. I bet the total yesterday in lal/ATL blindly based on how big you were on it, thanks. May do the same here.
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I have this more like 207-208 or so. If you look at teams similar to NY (and NY) when they have gone to Utah recently...not many games totalling 213. I have this so far off I usually look at regression. Both teams fg% recently have been a bit low, but even with that considered I still don't think this goes over 213 more than 40% of the time.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks for taking the time, I really appreciate it.

I think the biggest thing you do for others (at least for me) is give them much needed confidence that a hard working, knowledgeable, passionate person can beat this game without some fancy math model or following the Pinny lean but it takes a lot of time and effort that most I dont think are willing to put into this for a lot of reasons. I know in the past I would have had New Jersey, LA Lakers or Phoenix yesterday because of following line moves. The thing is with my knowledge and expierence, I have seen those type plays more then enough to know what the "right side" is and instead I wouldn't play the right side because I was focusing on getting a great number, following the line moves, and beating the closing line.

Like you have said many times in here,there are a lot of ways to go about all of this. Esepicially looking at each sport on it's own. Everything is different in certain ways. I agree 100% with that.

Do you think baseball is beatable using a lot of the same hard work habits you preach or is it more a numbers/statsitics game with so much less public money in it. Where situations, motivations, scheduling and stuff like that aren't as big a factor. I guess what I am getting at is do you have the same confidence in beating baseball as you do with other sports? Really interested in what you think as I have never beat baseball at the level I have beat football and hoops but that is also due to a few reasons like I have also not worked at it as hard as I have with the other two sports in the past. This year will be different, as I obviously have the time and energy and will give it a whirl.

Also you ever think of moving to Vegas for poker. It seems there are a lot so called "wannabe" poker pros running around here that someone with your knowlegde, passion and expierence would clean up on, coupled with the tourists who are happy to give away their money at the tables, I have been told.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Thanks for taking the time, I really appreciate it.

I think the biggest thing you do for others (at least for me) is give them much needed confidence that a hard working, knowledgeable, passionate person can beat this game without some fancy math model or following the Pinny lean but it takes a lot of time and effort that most I dont think are willing to put into this for a lot of reasons. I know in the past I would have had New Jersey, LA Lakers or Phoenix yesterday because of following line moves. The thing is with my knowledge and expierence, I have seen those type plays more then enough to know what the "right side" is and instead I wouldn't play the right side because I was focusing on getting a great number, following the line moves, and beating the closing line.

Like you have said many times in here,there are a lot of ways to go about all of this. Esepicially looking at each sport on it's own. Everything is different in certain ways. I agree 100% with that.

Do you think baseball is beatable using a lot of the same hard work habits you preach or is it more a numbers/statsitics game with so much less public money in it. Where situations, motivations, scheduling and stuff like that aren't as big a factor. I guess what I am getting at is do you have the same confidence in beating baseball as you do with other sports? Really interested in what you think as I have never beat baseball at the level I have beat football and hoops but that is also due to a few reasons like I have also not worked at it as hard as I have with the other two sports in the past. This year will be different, as I obviously have the time and energy and will give it a whirl.

Also you ever think of moving to Vegas for poker. It seems there are a lot so called "wannabe" poker pros running around here that someone with your knowlegde, passion and expierence would clean up on, coupled with the tourists who are happy to give away their money at the tables, I have been told.
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good post.

baseball is very heavily statistics based, more so than other sports, IMO. I don't use 'common sense' nearly as much, such as taking the Clippers ML when they are visiting the Spurs is against common sense. In baseball any team can beat another on any day, I don't always see value in taking +300 but it's a big reason why you won't see me laying -140 very often. Good teams win 60% of their games in baseball, it's easier for me to lean to a high percentage of dogs. I do look at public percentages, not so much in the beginning of the year, and the way to use it is different. 65% of the public on a -200 is a lot different than at -110. 65% of the public on a -120 in June is a good indicator to look hard at the dog. I try to keep what I look at in baseball fairly simple, I know what to look at and so far have been weighting things profitably. At OGD last year there was a baseball forum that was extremely in-depth, I think it will continue this year. More than one poster has come up with their own unique statistic and combined that with other power numbers to come up with a better line. I read that forum from time to time and liked their approach, learned some things, my evaluations of baseball games are simpler but I'm not sure that they are more effective. I am confident that I can make money in baseball, I just don't care very much. Some years I'll bet 100 games, some years a couple thousand. I take a lot of breaks and start preparing for NCAA football (takes some time). Baseball has a lot of swings, I make 2% one day, lose 1.5% the next, lose another 1%, then make .5%, lose 1%, then make 1.5% and that's a good week. Content with .5% a week in baseball, content with that a week in any sport long term. Frustration is part of betting that sport and at times I'd just rather do something else, summer is my vacation time.

I'm not a poker pro. yet. That is what I would like to have happen. but who wouldn't? I don't see why not. and I am thinking seriously about moving to Vegas for that reason. that might be a couple years down the road for sure. it's hard for me to play poker and invest in the sports market at the same time. I need to focus more on learning statistics, theory, and situational implied odds. I started by playing live and just recently started playing online. I like live a lot better but there's more money in online. I think losing some hands in poker is far more brutal than bad beats in sports. I can do both at the same time, but it really wears me out, and you basically have no life at that point. Took four weeks or so off in the nba this year to play poker and it worked out well.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Everytime someone brings up poker, I think ATX is going 'off to see the wizard' in Vegas for good.:blah
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
I have this more like 207-208 or so. If you look at teams similar to NY (and NY) when they have gone to Utah recently...not many games totalling 213. I have this so far off I usually look at regression. Both teams fg% recently have been a bit low, but even with that considered I still don't think this goes over 213 more than 40% of the time.
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Actually up to 214 in spots. Just put that one on the fire, thanks and GL.:cheers
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Hate to sound square here but I can't believe that New Jersey at home can't beat the quitting Bucks. I bought down at Pinny and got a -2.5 for -111. I know they played yesterday but this seems like value getting them this low, I couldn't let it go that low without grabbing it.

Also looking at a +3 home dog with the Heat and if I can find a +6 with Grizz, I am in as they play well against bad teams. Now I know the Warriors are a different team at home but Memphis keeps it close against the bad teams and not sure Warriors are good enough to spot anyone 6, looks like a nice public fade as number has been inching up a littel all day long. The Warriors are also riddled with injuries to good players.

Caution- I am due for a really bad night as I have done really well with NBA sides for the 1st time all year, in the past week. With you on some of these totals. Good luck to all!!
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Everytime someone brings up poker, I think ATX is going 'off to see the wizard' in Vegas for good.:blah
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ATX,
how long have you been playing poker?

You sound a lot like me. One of the things I was going to do right away when I got to vegas was join the Vegas poker scene and sort of hope to improve, learn some things and win little by little but the thing is I won't even attmept anything like this until I know I am playing with an edge (which is never because I dont love the game enough to put the time into it).

*- want to add the Bucks play is solely based on how awful the Bucks have been and this also the last game of a road trip. Not liking it as much the more I look at NJ, LOL.
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Hate to sound square here but I can't believe that New Jersey at home can't beat the quitting Bucks. I bought down at Pinny and got a -2.5 for -111. I know they played yesterday but this seems like value getting them this low, I couldn't let it go that low without grabbing it.
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Wow Nets are losing by 33 in the 4th.. Good capping there, you have everyone fooled here that your move to Vegas was for gambling purposes haha.. Not me..

Liar.
 
B

Bruce Dickinson

Guest
Re: NBA for opening week

gynecologist said:
Wow Nets are losing by 33 in the 4th.. Good capping there, you have everyone fooled here that your move to Vegas was for gambling purposes haha.. Not me..

Liar.
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dude take it easy man, maybe time to take a break from the forums, and I'm only saying that because I always thought you were a decent guy. May want to consider taking a step back from it all. GL

Utah is just on fire, any chance these guys give LA a run for their money?
 
Jumpman23

Jumpman23

EOG Member
Re: NBA for opening week

Bruce Dickinson said:
dude take it easy man, maybe time to take a break from the forums, and I'm only saying that because I always thought you were a decent guy. May want to consider taking a step back from it all. GL
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No shit....I guess he's never had a bad bet in his life. :pop: He says he's tired of all the negative comments to ruin a positive thread but yet he just makes one just to be a dick and ruins a great thread by ATX. Makes sense.....:+clueless
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

gynecologist said:
Wow Nets are losing by 33 in the 4th.. Good capping there, you have everyone fooled here that your move to Vegas was for gambling purposes haha.. Not me..

Liar.
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Your joking right? I will probably lose around 5,000 plays this year (as long as I win 5,800 I should be fine), each loss counts the same. I will lose some games by 40 points and will go thru 3-12 stretches all the time, who gives a shit. I will have many, many more losing nights. Some really bad days. You can't avoid that, they happen to everyone. A person that actually gambles know all this is just part of the gig.

Win or lose a game? I don't really care to be honest with you as I don't even watch the games, nor will I lose an ounce asleep over it. It is one of 9 plays I made for the day and this is a really slow day. I promise everything will be fine on my end but thanks.

By the way where were you on here yesterday when I posted Atlanta, Sacremento, and Minnestoa, all dogs who won straight up? Was that good capping also? That's funny but I never heard a word from you then. I suppose I don't get credit for that? How come you didn't stop in here yesterday and say something then? Had to wait two days till I posted a loser in here? Was it worth it?

I promised ATX I wouldn't clutter this thread. So good luck with everything.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
prop:

Lakers to win title +215 for 4%
to +170.
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Cleveland to win title +265 for 4%

The Jazz have the ability to upset the Lakers, but I don't see it happening. Jazz aren't consistent enough on the road, and the NBA doesn't want a small market team in the finals.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

cheapseats said:
figured you for this after the piss-poor showing last out, ggod luck tonight X
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thanks. I think they are still discounting Charlotte's totals a little b/c of the team from the early part of the year. Bit of a different team now.


Portland/Utah over 192 for 1.1%
 
B

Boston

EOG Dedicated
Re: NBA for opening week

glad to see you on atl,port,and la overs as I was putting in my final wagers I realized I was on all overs tonight including utah tt over
 
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