NBA for opening week

ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
ATX,
how long have you been playing poker?

You sound a lot like me. One of the things I was going to do right away when I got to vegas was join the Vegas poker scene and sort of hope to improve, learn some things and win little by little but the thing is I won't even attmept anything like this until I know I am playing with an edge (which is never because I dont love the game enough to put the time into it).

*- want to add the Bucks play is solely based on how awful the Bucks have been and this also the last game of a road trip. Not liking it as much the more I look at NJ, LOL.
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been playing off and on for 3-4 years.

I'm good at putting people on hands and betting when ahead and sniffing out fold situations. Last night some jackass called my preflop raise with 2-7 to my AQ. Flop comes Q-2-7. I bet the pot, he calls. I'm thinking he has pocket 7's (he has position). Turn is a 5. I check, he checks (bad move). River is an Ace. I check, he bets 3/4 pot, I re-raise all-in, he calls. I don't remember what he did to get pocket 7's off my radar, but he thought he had it even on the river. The odd thing to me was I had shown AQ two other times and had an Ace a lot (fairly obvious to others IMO since if the board had an Ace I would bet it and everyone would fold).
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

mofome said:
minn living at the line and dallas shooting 65%. hope the 1Q is under 60
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if Dallas maintains this lead it should go under in the 2h, but Mavs are tricky b/c they often play no defense.

Indiana/Chicago 2h will prob be tight.

I may have f'ed up with Atlanta since this is a sandwich between LA and Boston for them, but Philly should be just as important. Atlanta doesn't lose a whole lot of games by more than 11. Laying points at the half on a dog for the full game isn't something I like to make a habit of...

might need 3OT's for LA to go over.
 
diogee

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

Good luck ATX...Atl was almost a big play in the 2h for me. Not sure how they play the whole game with their current playoff positioning fairly locked up.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Re: NBA for opening week

bull 2H over
atl blows the 2H
lakers go way under

gonna be an 0-5 nba night. i think you do well, or so ive heard, but i jinx ya to like 1-6 when i follow. cant get anything.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

mofome said:
bull 2H over
atl blows the 2H
lakers go way under

gonna be an 0-5 nba night. i think you do well, or so ive heard, but i jinx ya to like 1-6 when i follow. cant get anything.
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yeah, that tends to happen when you tail other posters. Seems like every time someone says "I'm on this game with you..." it loses. The thing is that even if I lose 10 in a row I'm not really very concerned. It's been a long time since that has happened but it's always just a matter of time until it happens again. These were all 54-57% IMO, this is a difficult time to win in the NBA b/c a lot of strange things tend to happen and the numbers are more solid with all the games played. 2nd halves are usually pretty good for me and I will probably pass on a lot more full games than usual. If I would have played all of my other leans on full games it would have probably turned out real ugly today. Denver shot 55% their last 2 games which is rare, the vast majority of the time in the next that team doesn't cover...now they are shooting 75% in this one??? looks like a 2h under spot to me so far.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Re: NBA for opening week

minn under. nice one. you got bulls under too i think? i missed that one just went 2H under and lost.

hope the knicks can rally. gl ATX
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

mofome said:
minn under. nice one. you got bulls under too i think? i missed that one just went 2H under and lost.

hope the knicks can rally. gl ATX
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yeah, didn't see your post about the bulls 2h over until it was too late

passing on NY/Denver 2h but I think NY covers and it goes under, but I would pass. very strong angle on it to go under, but I'm not going to press my luck with the Knicks involved. Minnesota blows goats, and I hate Dallas b/c it seems like any chance they get to blow someone out on the road they take it b/c they suck on the road in all their other games. If Portland is blowing Utah out at the half I'll probably take the under in the 2nd.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

What kind of criteria do you look for when taking an under in a 2H 'blowout'? And what exactly constitutes a 'blowout'? Dallas was up 14 at the half and I didn't think that qualified, probably because I was aware of the spread and knew they were only covering by 6.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
What kind of criteria do you look for when taking an under in a 2H 'blowout'? And what exactly constitutes a 'blowout'? Dallas was up 14 at the half and I didn't think that qualified, probably because I was aware of the spread and knew they were only covering by 6.
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it did, but I was on the full game and I don't like to lose two bets on a somewhat correlated event. it's not just the score, but it has a lot to do with the two teams and how far the score is from the first half total or half the full game total. I also look at rebounds, turnovers, FT's and FG%, and pinnacle lean etc. for instance, Portland tends to play strong defense at home and Utah has good coaching. If this game is a dd lead for Portland and Utah's 3rd quarter push falls short...in the 4th q if Utah is down by quite a few they will probably pull starters and run out the clock instead of what some teams do. If the half time score is over half of what the full game total is I like those situations more so than others (where the losing team has scored only 30 points or something). I don't think I'm making much sense, but it's difficult to explain, a lot of it is just having seen hundreds of 2nd halves I guess.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

fwiw, strange move on Utah/Port 2h with OLY moving ahead of the action. Oly was leaning to the Utah full game over most of the day.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX, thank you for a very solid night. You helped me a lot. I followed someone on utah and got rocked, but your plays were the loan bright spot in the day. I know you do your work and I know you're a very sharp guy, so id rather lose with you than most; supposing the result isnt positive.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

no prob. better games tomorrow, IMO

Lakers should destroy Milwaukee. I rarely lay points on the road and Milwaukee has cost me a mint lately but....

Charlotte might win SU and that should fly over 180.

I like Dallas to go over, Miami often struggle scoring on the road and Dallas on B2B so not sure about that yet...

be careful with Wash/Mem...not sure who Wash is playing but that looks like a zero defense type game (over).

Detroit total looks too low. I don't like the fact that I like so many overs though.

need to look closer but those two really stick out.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Charlotte +9.5 for 1.8%
tall order on B2B off Lakers, but Cha plays Boston well and I think they have a decent shot at the SU win here. Charlotte has cashed some huge ML's vs. the Celts and has fared decently ATS on no days rest. I really don't understand the total esp. with no Garnett.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Would love to see Charlotte go to 10. Hope you don't mind another ? On the post above regarding 2H unders, I want to make sure I'm on the same page. If a team has a solid lead, let's call it 15 or more, and the teams have combined for more than 50% of the posted total in the first half, that would be a good situation for a 2H under? Just trying to make certain I am interpreting this correctly. Thanks.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Would love to see Charlotte go to 10. Hope you don't mind another ? On the post above regarding 2H unders, I want to make sure I'm on the same page. If a team has a solid lead, let's call it 15 or more, and the teams have combined for more than 50% of the posted total in the first half, that would be a good situation for a 2H under? Just trying to make certain I am interpreting this correctly. Thanks.
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I look more for the 4th quarter to go under, it's tough to get around those limits for most people. In the 3rd, a lot of times it goes over as the losing team plays fast and loose to try to get back in the game. But I still lean to the 2nd half to go under on a lot of those. Try to elaborate more later.

Dallas over 196 for 1.1%
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
Charlotte +9.5 for 1.8%
tall order on B2B off Lakers, but Cha plays Boston well and I think they have a decent shot at the SU win here. Charlotte has cashed some huge ML's vs. the Celts and has fared decently ATS on no days rest. I really don't understand the total esp. with no Garnett.
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not many 9's left (I see 3) but I ended up going 2.1% on +9.5/9
and .4% ML +420ish, +375 is good enough
I think the Charlotte data stream continues through this game. I would be careful taking both Cha and the over b/c IMO the are somewhat correlated in that if Cha regresses there's a good chance to get f'ed on both. But with no Garnett I really feel like this helps the over.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

would you ever play a favorite and an under in the same game or never?

Also I sent you a PM, not sure you noticed it as they dont alert you. Hoping when you have some free time you can look at it. Thanks!!
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
would you ever play a favorite and an under in the same game or never?

Also I sent you a PM, not sure you noticed it as they dont alert you. Hoping when you have some free time you can look at it. Thanks!!
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yes.

strong defensive teams. probably have a few favorite and unders in the playoffs.

probably taking Sacramento for quite a bit, 9 flashed for a quick minute doubtful seeing it again.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Yeah I played some Sac +8.5 at -105 this morning, can't imagine that goes higher. Along with Charlotte +9.5, New Jersey ML -110, under 203 Memphis, under 225.5 Phoenix and an under 204 Orlando but 2nd guessing that right now.

Havent looked as hard as a normal day of late. Not sure how you keep this up everyday, I love working on this but being on the west coast puts you behind from the second you wake up and I have had to do some other things this morning.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Havent looked as hard as a normal day of late. Not sure how you keep this up everyday, I love working on this but being on the west coast puts you behind from the second you wake up and I have had to do some other things this morning.
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I don't think anyone has questioned my work ethic, lol.

sometimes I'll stay up for several days in a row.

maybe I can have a really bad day today so I can make an excuse to take a break. tomorrow is 3/4 done.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

no 2nd halves today unless I see something I really like. I'm too tired.

2 things,

no personal attacks on posters. this isn't about who is good, better, or best. this is about getting better. until someone goes undefeated they can always optimize.
as long is something is worded in the form of a question or a pertinent comment, remark, or conclusion whatever...

don't let me know if you are tailing something. I feel bad when people lose and I don't need the added pressure. It's quite OK to let me know thanks, good call, or nice job after the fact, we are all humans :cheers if you have a question about whether or not something will win or lose after everything is put in and done I don't care about that. I'll give an honest opinion and you can give yours and maybe we both see something different and discuss it.

Charlotte was almost good enough, but couldn't close it out. I guess I'll see how OT treats me this year.
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
no 2nd halves today unless I see something I really like. I'm too tired.

2 things,

no personal attacks on posters. this isn't about who is good, better, or best. this is about getting better. until someone goes undefeated they can always optimize.
as long is something is worded in the form of a question or a pertinent comment, remark, or conclusion whatever...

don't let me know if you are tailing something. I feel bad when people lose and I don't need the added pressure. It's quite OK to let me know thanks, good call, or nice job after the fact, we are all humans :cheers if you have a question about whether or not something will win or lose after everything is put in and done I don't care about that. I'll give an honest opinion and you can give yours and maybe we both see something different and discuss it.

Charlotte was almost good enough, but couldn't close it out. I guess I'll see how OT treats me this year.
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great post and request X, get some shut - eye....late
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

tough year for ml's, but it's been like that this year so I adjusted both of them down quite a bit. Years past I would have put 2.2% and 1.1% on the ML in a lot of spots, b/c years past they actually won with a bit of regularity. I'm not sure Charlotte would have covered if they had gone to 3 OT's since it was their 3rd in 4. Tomorrow I am probably avoiding Milwaukee. I was very close to taking the Lakers -5.5 in the 2nd so that's a start, but I see very few instances to lay more than 3 points with the 76ers. Utah is a very good bet tomorrow and will most likely be in the 1.1 to 1.5% range for me. previous meetings, public, 55% 3x for Denver. The regression hit big time in the 2nd half with the Knicks (right Mo?), and should see Utah with a half time lead. I'm fairly sure the experienced Jazz will actually close this one out in the final 3 minutes after withstanding a late 3rd quarter to mid 4th quarter surge from the Nuggets.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

I agree with you tomorrow on Utah, not the popular choice so I hoping we see some the line rise a little bit. Good situational stuff like you described going for Jazz.

No line up yet on Cleveland/Washington but maybe tomorrow is this big upset you have been talking about involving Cleveland. Total stab in the dark but Washington's been decent at home of late and maybe we get a DD home dog (or close) who has a small chance to pull off huge upset as Cleveland is due for that huge letdown with lookahead to Magic coming up on Friday night. I don't ever play ML dogs but this one is lining up for one I may look at.

Talk to you tomorrow.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Nice night, ATX, I had you winning almost 2 units even with the tough ML losses by sac and cha. Either of those makes it a huge night. You've got me tracking stuff I never looked at before, thanks.
 
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