NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

What is the "fade Phi as fave angle"? Thanks, looks like a really good night for you so far.
yeah, very good night. I just looked at some of the finals b/c I was convinced I would get screwed by OT on a couple. I haven't added it up but it's prob top 10 all time since I reconfigure BR after each 10%. I'm focusing on mistakes that I made, and it's always a lot more pleasant coming to the conclusion that I erred mostly on LACK of aggression. I'm losing quite a bit with Milwaukee. I actually put 4.4% on LAC 2h over even though I have severe trust issues with that team. I can't remember a year that I've made money on that team (it was so bad that I wouldn't even say their name just L*C or something), I've made more on them this year than maybe the next two individual teams combined. So now the mission is to do SOMETHING with Milwaukee...or not...until next year or not. A lot of this is 'tricking' yourself that NOTHING has been accomplished. You know that quote from Hawthorne, I mean The Departed about "families are always moving up or down in America?" Same with a lot of things, one is never stationary. Constantly moving, changing, gressing (pro or re) I like that word the whiskey just gave me, gressing. Anyways, I'm not even sure what I was talking about but ...ok now the whisky is making things difficult.

The Philadelphia angle: this isn't blind, but the 76'ers have this really good tendency to cover as dogs and definitely not cover as favorites. (man I really screwed that game up I had it pegged...MIN 1st half, 1st half under, could have partially middled the 2h total). I don't track too much I just let my subconscious kinda do it for me, but I've been using this since maybe 2000.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I show double digit dogs on a 27-13 run in my thread. This seems to go against all logic, as this time of year you would believe the bad teams simply pack it in. Are you seeing anything unusual, even the dregs of the league seem to be in on the act?
Unusual? yes, does seem a little odd how close some of these DD favorites are ending when comparing final score to opening and closing numbers. I don't think of it so much as the dogs 'competing' so much as the books add a little to their number b/c of tendencies they have computed from similar situations years past. Honestly, this time of year I'm usually frustrated and not doing as well. What I use for pretty much the whole year doesn't work very well this late. So I haven't paid much attention b/c usually I'm just picking 3-5 (passing completely spread and total on more than half the games) full games and waiting on 2nd halves. I know that wasn't really your question but as far as the frequency of the DD dogs covering I look at the flip side...yeah, some of the teams have packed it in, but their opponents, the good teams are doing similarly, they want the win but want to do just enough to secure it and not risk injury and rest players etc. So it kinda works both ways IMO. I think this will possibly be a good discussion after the season concludes and maybe then we might see a better 'fade to black', there might be a bit of commonality between non-playoff teams and the angle you are tracking vs. time of year (might start very close to the same time each year).
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

yeah, very good night. I just looked at some of the finals b/c I was convinced I would get screwed by OT on a couple. I haven't added it up but it's prob top 10 all time since I reconfigure BR after each 10%.

The Philadelphia angle: this isn't blind, but the 76'ers have this really good tendency to cover as dogs and definitely not cover as favorites. (man I really screwed that game up I had it pegged...MIN 1st half, 1st half under, could have partially middled the 2h total). I don't track too much I just let my subconscious kinda do it for me, but I've been using this since maybe 2000.
Congrats on the big night. I assume by reconfiguring bankroll you mean upping or dropping the unit value when your total goes up/down 10%. I do the same thing within certain things I play, but never let a unit go over $100. That is my tolerance level where I won't lose any sleep over a bad loss.

That Sixer angle is amazing, and easy to backtest. Funny that it has worked that long, although I know you don't use it blindly. Thanks and continued success.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Unusual? yes, does seem a little odd how close some of these DD favorites are ending when comparing final score to opening and closing numbers. I don't think of it so much as the dogs 'competing' so much as the books add a little to their number b/c of tendencies they have computed from similar situations years past. Honestly, this time of year I'm usually frustrated and not doing as well. What I use for pretty much the whole year doesn't work very well this late. So I haven't paid much attention b/c usually I'm just picking 3-5 (passing completely spread and total on more than half the games) full games and waiting on 2nd halves. I know that wasn't really your question but as far as the frequency of the DD dogs covering I look at the flip side...yeah, some of the teams have packed it in, but their opponents, the good teams are doing similarly, they want the win but want to do just enough to secure it and not risk injury and rest players etc. So it kinda works both ways IMO. I think this will possibly be a good discussion after the season concludes and maybe then we might see a better 'fade to black', there might be a bit of commonality between non-playoff teams and the angle you are tracking vs. time of year (might start very close to the same time each year).
I tracked it last year and it did pretty well, certainly in money-making territory. There is just something about betting lousy teams that is difficult until you gain some experience or at least confidence in whatyou are doing. I decided to check on the progress after football ended and had it 61-51. Still head above water stuff, so I started playing it for a bit with good results so far. Interesting to see whether it regresses.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Detroit/LA over 193.5 for 1.5%
I guess it's possible to move down a little as I think I know what 'they' are looking at.

Heat is 'better record' angle plus the line should be more like 4. I highly doubt Wade will shoot as badly tonight (5-24) on TNT. Heat shot 37% yday as a team vs Indiana. It is the 4th in 5 nights for Miami, but I just think the recent previous meetings tend to override that tonight. Regardless I'm reducing my position on Miami a bit, the Heat have not fared well at all in B2B situations this year. And I like the over, not sure if I'm going to bet it. I think Portland is the right side but I don't like the number too much. PHX on B2B, 3rd in 4 after shooting just below 55% yet again.

I found a Detroit -5 for less than -115 for .7%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I have had a couple really solid days betting NBA since joining in the discussion here. This whole thread really got my juices flowing and got me thinking. That is what it this is suppose to be about. Hope it continues.

Kind of like Portland and the the Pistons tonight.

I have somewhat a better way to explain my market question yesterday. Using some things from yesterday as prime examples.

This was really my bread and butter in the past. All about focusing entirely on beating closing lines. Struggled badly this year with it.

Situations like this yesterday where I had a game steam so I grabbed it (Milawaukee under) or move too much one way and then bounce back up (Atlanta -5.5) this resulted in me getting really good "beat the closing line type" numbers. The thing is I have no opinion at all on these plays but I make the play and believe (or at least I use too) that these should win cause I am beating closing lines , that they are +ev.

Do you play similar type situations like this when you see them or do you stay away? Where you have no opinion on a bet but are clearly beating the closing line. Do you respect the market at all, follow steam ,etc or you don't even bother with what it saying and you only play stuff you personally have an opinion on? Thanks as always!!
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I have had a couple really solid days betting NBA since joining in the discussion here. This whole thread really got my juices flowing and got me thinking. That is what it this is suppose to be about. Hope it continues.

Kind of like Portland and the the Pistons tonight.

I have somewhat a better way to explain my market question yesterday. Using some things from yesterday as prime examples.

This was really my bread and butter in the past. All about focusing entirely on beating closing lines. Struggled badly this year with it.

Situations like this yesterday where I had a game steam so I grabbed it (Milawaukee under) or move too much one way and then bounce back up (Atlanta -5.5) this resulted in me getting really good "beat the closing line type" numbers. The thing is I have no opinion at all on these plays but I make the play and believe (or at least I use too) that these should win cause I am beating closing lines , that they are +ev.

Do you play similar type situations like this when you see them or do you stay away? Where you have no opinion on a bet but are clearly beating the closing line. Do you respect the market at all, follow steam ,etc or you don't even bother with what it saying and you only play stuff you personally have an opinion on? Thanks as always!!
Closing lines are overrated. I know all the statistical jargon about +EV and closing lines. That's great...if you were living in yesterday. Sure, I like to take the best of the number, and I get within a half point of the best number the vast majority of the time...I almost always know which way a line will move. I'm not bragging, it's just the way it is. It's from watching screens for years. If something doesn't move that I think should I usually look for info I might have missed. If something moves in the opposite direction of what I assumed then it's usually an injury, if it's not then a lot of times I discount my position (I usually take what I liked to begin with but at a smaller amount at a BETTER number). But a lot depends on time of day of the move. Moves from 9am-12noon are different than early season moves at 5:30pm EST.

A couple 'for instances'...
Yesterday I fully expected the Denver total and Philadelphia total to drop at least 1.5 points. They didn't and I was getting conflicting info on reasons why. I discounted the Phi under b/c I was worried that MIN would get too far ahead in the 1st q/ 1st half and it would turn into a shootout in the 3rd and 4th. The Wolves are just unpredictable, and I have no idea why the total didn't drop after McHale announced his 'revamped' line up. I was expecting to see the total go to 198 or so and was going to put about 1/4 on the over 198 at another shop, it's cheap to move money around that way, plus it's quite possible to hit both. The Denver total moved against me, and I was little confused by that, but then I remembered how well I usually do this time of year by being on the opposite side of line moves. It didn't look like the public bet it up, I don't respect the groups that move lines all at once very much at all this time of year. In the beginning of the year those moves are good. Not so much at the end, but every year is different. The LVSC is designed to get it all in the end. I think the further a season goes along the better the books' number. People that make money in the early part of the season usually give it back b/c they are betting the same team or the same concept and lack adaptability. That's what the books have is adaptability. People that adapt faster win. People that can adapt and have a good idea which way the number will move AND a good idea where the number will close are not really 'betting' at all. They are booking the sportsbooks action.

I've gotten into discussions about statistical whiz-bang historical statistics before with very sharp people. It's just that IMO a lot of people put too much emphasis on the past to predict the future. At the beginning of the NBA season, yes I do put more emphasis on what the teams did the year before b/c that is also what the lines are based on to a certain degree. I also respect line moves more. Then things change and I do my best to adapt. You have to throw in the whole percentage thing as well. Just b/c you win doesn't mean you had better than a 45% winner. Just b/c you lose doesn't mean the side you bet on would come in 6/10. So a lot of the 'beating closing line' discussion I pay attention to but it IS NOT primary. And just b/c a line moves doesn't mean I won't bet that side if I'm not getting the best of the number. It's similar to poker, you make moves based on the best information available at the moment. I use a lot of different things to come to conclusions and if a line moves from -5 to -7 doesn't mean I won't bet -7. I determine what the percentage is at -7. Also lines do sometimes move on air....so not betting something b/c you aren't getting the best of the number isn't optimal IMO.

I don't really bet anything just b/c Pinnacle etc has a lean, or b/c something is steaming and I have slow outs. I used to in baseball for sure. It took a while to figure out what works for each sport, and I would use Pinnacle leans but more SIA fades to figure out why each had the line that they were offering. A lot of times I know which side I like and bet it when I see it start to take off, as the line begins to move. Still tired from yesterday's 7am-12midnite event. Not sure if I even answered your question. And if anyone else has an opinion, feel free to throw it out there. It's not about being RIGHT or WRONG. It's about perspective, and how to mold that perspective into a system or methodology that is consistent and profitable.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Let me comment on the "-5 to -7" situation. I know it was strictly hypothetical, but I LOVE to fade line moves, and have done very well doing so. Your method of taking a team with an injury for one game often dovetails with this nicely and is another "angle" I like. So, without hesitation, I can say that I would almost never lay the 7 after that big a move and most likely would be on the other side. Can you give a rationale for taking a team -7 when they moved from -5? I'm thinking that every bit of value has been squeezed out of the fave at that point. Naturally, you might say that the fave may be the "right" side but the horse seems to be out of the barn at that number, and I'm wondering what factors could possibly lead you to lay the points. Again, it could be any old line, just using 5 and 7 to mimic the numbers in your post. Thanks.
 

Boston

EOG Dedicated
Re: NBA for opening week

Let me comment on the "-5 to -7" situation. I know it was strictly hypothetical, but I LOVE to fade line moves, and have done very well doing so. Your method of taking a team with an injury for one game often dovetails with this nicely and is another "angle" I like. So, without hesitation, I can say that I would almost never lay the 7 after that big a move and most likely would be on the other side. Can you give a rationale for taking a team -7 when they moved from -5? I'm thinking that every bit of value has been squeezed out of the fave at that point. Naturally, you might say that the fave may be the "right" side but the horse seems to be out of the barn at that number, and I'm wondering what factors could possibly lead you to lay the points. Again, it could be any old line, just using 5 and 7 to mimic the numbers in your post. Thanks.

I think all he is saying is that if he likes -7 the move from -5 doesn't phase him. Also we are talking about the nba and a 2 point move is only one basket. The closing number is rarely within 5 of the actual game so I'm not sure how much it matters
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Let me comment on the "-5 to -7" situation. I know it was strictly hypothetical, but I LOVE to fade line moves, and have done very well doing so. Your method of taking a team with an injury for one game often dovetails with this nicely and is another "angle" I like. So, without hesitation, I can say that I would almost never lay the 7 after that big a move and most likely would be on the other side. Can you give a rationale for taking a team -7 when they moved from -5? I'm thinking that every bit of value has been squeezed out of the fave at that point. Naturally, you might say that the fave may be the "right" side but the horse seems to be out of the barn at that number, and I'm wondering what factors could possibly lead you to lay the points. Again, it could be any old line, just using 5 and 7 to mimic the numbers in your post. Thanks.
I was just throwing numbers out there. It's somewhat rare for an NBA number to move across 5 and 7, but I was making a point. Even if something moved from 5 to 7 (key numbers) if I thought at -7 something was a +EV situation I would still bet it. A lot of people would argue rigorously against that, quoting all kinds of historical data pointing out that taking the +7 has all kinds of intrinsic value. From a database standpoint sure, but that is like playing something blind. It's something that has worked for me, one can't be in front of the numbers 24/7 and a lot of times in the past I've been partying or whatever and miss the best of the number. Obviously I'm not taking too many numbers that have moved 2 points, but I'm just saying that I have, and I would again if I felt like it was a profitable situation. I would also say that the majority of people that argue against betting on a number that has moved 2 points flat bet. I don't. I vary according to perceived value. Another point is that originators are betting on numbers that have moved all the time. They are moving the numbers and will bet a number until it no longer has value to them. In other words, BW isn't thinking in terms of "OK, I just put x amount on -5 and it moved to -5.5 and then to -6. I can't bet any more b/c the number moved even though I have it closer to 8." IMO, that's what some of the people that say you always have to bet the best of the number are saying. I'm less dependent I guess.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Miami over 102 for .5%
just based on a p-lean I noticed all day, I liked the full game over but the number was tight
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks ATX, I do flat bet and that probably explains my inflexible position. To me, a bet is a bet is a bet. Any time I have tried to play around with units it has not worked. I will adjust the flat amount if I reach certain levels on the up or down side. I guess it's a little of both, so maybe I'm more flexible than I think.:+textinb3
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks ATX, I do flat bet and that probably explains my inflexible position. To me, a bet is a bet is a bet. Any time I have tried to play around with units it has not worked. I will adjust the flat amount if I reach certain levels on the up or down side. I guess it's a little of both, so maybe I'm more flexible than I think.:+textinb3
and there is nothing wrong with that. I will always advocate 'do what works'...too many people think there is ONLY 1 way to do things...I don't understand that. My position is this: anything below 1.1% is what I consider picking up pennies. If those bets didn't show profit I would drop them. In the past I had a lot more bets, almost every single side, about half the totals, every day. It worked, but it took a lot of drugs and alcohol. I'm still in my early thirties, I'm lucky I don't have MUCH of an addictive personality but I value my health and needed to make a lifestyle change BEFORE I had to stop doing all of it completely. I've had a couple shots and a beer today, that is sort of normal but a change from meth, x, with a case of beer to wash it down etc. I sound like a junky, it wasn't an everyday thing, but it really helped with betting on sports. I'm conservative by nature (sounds ridiculous lol from the previous sentences) but by frying that part of my brain it allowed me to become aggressive. I always saw the edges no matter how f'ed up I was/am whatever. I just don't risk as much sober. I was shaking putting in that LAC over 107.5 2h for 4.4 yesterday. So anyways, I started out betting an average of 1.5% to 2.5% on football, usually 3-5 bets NFL, 5-7 NCAA. I started developing more leans and I was like ok I really think this is a good bet but it's not as good as these other 5. So I put less on it. I tracked those, added more of them. Those smaller bets did well, so I kept them. The bigger bets did even better, so I came to the realization that I was a 'value bettor'. I remember figuring out if I put in 6000 bets a year and only won a little over 53% of them how much that added up to at an avg of less than 1.1% each. I never really had a bad run. A couple of years I had over 300% return. A lot of people kept telling me that I was going to end up losing it all, I was betting too many games, and I listened but didn't stop. Some still say the same thing and that any advantage will disappear, but there is zero risk of ruin for me. I started with 9K in '98, tired of corporate America. I was floating around trying to figure out what I wanted to do, and my roommate at the time had been a bookie in college. From day one "WTF is this line?" (after he had to explain the plus and minus thing to me in front of the number). I started investing proceeds from 2002 onward into real estate. One day in NCAA football I think it was 2003 again, I lost over 20% in one day. I had a lot of followers on IM and very few cashed on the over 25% return that the NFL brought on Sunday. I went through an 0-21 baseball stretch that same year but it only amounted to about 12% in losses, and it still ended up being my best baseball year to date. But I got tired of the swings, so I decreased the amount on football bets since I established an advantage in basketball and baseball and don't have to press. I think it's important psychologically to leaf through the pages of history after crap days like today. On days I win I focus on mistakes, on days I lose I focus on what I did right. Experience got me off LA over 194, reduce my position on Miami, and get down on the Miami 2h over. and pass on Port/Phx until the half, I started looking at tomorrow's games at 5pm today. I adjust the amount of average wager after I hit a +10% level AND after a losing day. I wait until I lose to keep from losing more after increasing the BR pool. A couple of times I reached +30% before I lost during a day. I used to have this chart that showed the swings from a 50/50 proposition. During the course of 1000 events I think it was something like a person would lose 10 times in a row at least once and 9 times at least twice...something like that. Of course it's not a 50/50 proposition (hopefully), but it's a great perspective, a lot of people don't understand that even IF they were betting all 60% events that it's just a matter of time before they lose ten times in a row.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

You keep saying that your not much of a writer but I think your wirting style is great to read, it's very interesting. Please keep it up. I really enjoy it and look forward to coming here off and on throughout the day just for this thread.

I am also a firm beliver that you can't really duplicate what someone else is doing and then do it successfully. Everyone has their own style. I have told others many times that I could give them a sheet with my numbers I use for each game as a barometer and most people would have a completely different betting card then me at the end of the day. Meaning there is more then one way to skin a cat.


I am in somehwat the same boat as you, mid 30's, do this for a living (not sure but I think you do also?) and by far my biggest weakness is I am beyond conservative. My conservatisim(sp) has ruined my chance at being better off financially. My favorite statement is I will never be a millionaire from this but I will never go broke either. I like the tradeoff. I sleep well at night.

I keep telling my wife that I myself am the biggest reason we aren't much better off from this. I am just too damn conservative but I don't like too sweat too much. I am up close to 70% since September 1st and if I would have had any guts I would have been playing 2-3x higher. It would have been reasonable but I keep hearing how hard this is and how my luck will run out (have won 24 out of 30 months or so) and I let that effect me. It scares me and I lose my confidence easy.

If I was betting bigger in proportion to my BR then I would be laughing about all this right now. Things would be so much better. But instead I make just enough to live off my working bankroll. Not complaing things could be worse or even bad and they are not at all.

My bills are 10% of my BR a month so I have to have a 20% month to really go forward and those very rarley happen. In fact my bills have completely wiped out my 70% bankroll increase, meaning my BR is the same as when I pulled into town even though I am up a good chunk on the year. If only I would have bet more but so is life right? There is always next year and I plan to turn it up a half notch.

Sooner or later I am going to have come out of .06% average size bet if I am ever going to grow this thing. The times I have went into the 1-1.5% range, I felt uneasy, nervous, was scoreboard watching, losing sleep, just really upset after a la few losses. It was too voliatale for me.

Quick question: In order of rank what sports do you do the best to the worst on? You ever have a losing sport? I have done this succesfully for 2.5 years but baseball has always been my hardest sport to beat but then again I have never had the time to take it on like I will this year. I look forward too talking with you about that in the coming weeks. If I can beat it that would put an exclamation point on my 1st true year of doing this fulltime and I would feel really good going into next year with all the things I have learned.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I typically do best in the NBA because there are so many games, I have an opinion on almost every game, and b/c I usually hit a lot of big ML dogs. NCAA basketball ditto, but I risk less on average there and don't bet as many games and don't have as many 2nd halves. NFL is very easy IMO, I don't even have to look at anything but the lines to come to conclusions on most of the games, but I usually make more in NCAA football b/c there are more games. I learned to get down HEAVY early in the NCAA football season when the lines on a lot of the games are little more than random numbers. I don't focus on baseball. I play a little during the NBA playoffs then when the NBA ends I bet on it at random times, take a week or two off whenever. I bet almost all dogs and rarely lay more than -130, but I play a lot of alternate runlines so the swings are hefty so the average bet size there is probably more like .6% average, 1.1% is a big bet in baseball (and usually on dogs more than +150). I don't like the MLB playoffs too much, it's not that I lose it's just that the playoffs in baseball go against my whole strategy for baseball, somewhat. In baseball I don't really try to figure out who is going to win I just bet lines that I think are more than 5 cents off. Say Tampa Bay is +140 and I think they should be less than +135 then I bet it. I don't care if they lose, it's more of a sum of the parts...after 100 games it usually comes out in the wash. I did really well with MLB totals last year (totals in all sports have been secondary).

1. NBA ($$ b/c so few can beat it)
2. NFL
3. NCAA football
4. NCAA basketball
5. WNBA
6. MLB

I have only bet a very few WNBA games and for small amounts but just crushed it. I have no doubt it is exploitable. I also bet NHL for sporadic periods and beat it handily but I don't have time to really bet into it again (I tried on opening day and went 0-3 so just said seeee yaaaa lol) unless I switch back to maniac mode betting 30 things a day. I might actually do that again if I crush the NBA playoffs just to try to dominate every sport in a year. I really don't have much of a clue about NHL betting...it was early in the year so went by previous meetings and Pinnacle leans in year of our Lord...you guessed it...2003.
F the Portland 2h.

2003 NCAA football was a slight loser
 
Re: NBA for opening week

betcha dying to bang this 2H POR U110
that is what I would do, but I'm not doing so great with PHX lately. Portland is also hard for me to gauge since they are a 'new' team so to speak. I was hoping for Portland +1 since PHX is on 3in4 and shot over 55%. I've got 4 better bets for tomorrow...(I hope)
 
Re: NBA for opening week

A bit surprised that you would have wnba above mlb given your astute look at the overall picture and the fact that mlb offers a bunch of games similar to the nba. I can see how you would be favorable to run lines, and the dogs in mlb. I see many good mlb bettors who will not wager past the -150 line either, so that is of no surprise here. And to over/unders in mlb, it seems like that would be a very beatable place for you to be since you seem to be a "revert" to the mean type of bettor. I could be way off base, but that is what I see from you this nba season. Anyway, continued success here and in poker, as well.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

A bit surprised that you would have wnba above mlb given your astute look at the overall picture and the fact that mlb offers a bunch of games similar to the nba. I can see how you would be favorable to run lines, and the dogs in mlb. I see many good mlb bettors who will not wager past the -150 line either, so that is of no surprise here. And to over/unders in mlb, it seems like that would be a very beatable place for you to be since you seem to be a "revert" to the mean type of bettor. I could be way off base, but that is what I see from you this nba season. Anyway, continued success here and in poker, as well.
I have a lot more experience in MLB for sure, but from what I've seen of the WNBA it's fairly easy. The chicks don't seem to throw away games either. Not as many teams. I think it will be easier for me to put more money on something -110 in the WNBA playoffs than what I've done in the past with MLB, try to find a way to get around -170 or more for the right side. MLB is very time consuming and there are a lot of teams that it is hard to do anything with...no 2nd halves, well not the same kind of 2nd halves. I use Pinnacle leans etc. more in baseball, the majority of books out there don't really have too much of a clue with baseball IMO.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Minnesota +14.5/14 for 2.2%
I'm not really sure how this line was derived. Minnesota is going thru a lineup shake down there should be some motivation as that seems to be tied into players' wallets to a degree. Cavs off a 2 game set vs award winning NJ Nets.

3/22 NJ
3/23 layup drills
3/24 pretend to pay attention to coach's meeting over NJ again
3/25 NJ
3/26 set alarm so don't miss Wolves game and get fined
3/27 Minn
3/28 get ready for Dallas after losing to Minnesota
3/29 Dallas

that has been their recent schedule, I like to bet against teams with a break in their schedule especially with crap teams in the stream. That's nearly a week off since playing teams like NJ and MIN are like days off. Top seed all but wrapped up. I would say that the Cavs are probably going to enter this game still on break so to speak. I have this game a LOT more like 10-11, I see motivation with the Wolves, the public will be all over the Cavs. It's been a long time since the Cavs won by this number...and it's been a long time since Cleveland lost a game, there's been a long string of W's and I think I'll be hitting the ML against them here and if they win vs MIN maybe again until they lose.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX,

I'd like to thank you for your plays in this thread, which have helped me alot, and also for the discussions herein. I am a new player, only betting on a daily basis since November 08, and I'm trying to learn as much as I can.

While I'm not doing this for anything more than a boost in enjoyment of the games and a small possible income stream -- very small since I am a lot like Ice in that I am big-time conservative -- I do want to do the best job I can, and you've certainly been helping. It's appreciated.

Edit: You can still get +14 at Betjam, if you want to unload some more.

Dave
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Let me add I am a huge volume player, averging around 25 plays a day or so. 750 total plays is an average month for me.

great stuff as always!!

When you look at a game in the NBA do you consider a team that is playing really well a good thing or do you look at that more as a negative?

Let's say if a mediocre team like Philadlephia, who is playing it's best ball of the season right now, do you tend to look down at that, thinking they will come back down to earth or do you think of them as playiing well and more times you want to back them as you expect this to continue?

Or the opposite like the Knicks, who are really stumbling of late, would you say this might be the time to get on board with them because of how bad they are playing, or do you prefer to stay away from the "cold" teams?

I have found (and I could be wrong) that I like backing teams coming off disapointing efforts a lot of times. Not saying this is the only criteria I use but I feel it's a plus in the process.

I 100% agree with your thoughts on the NFL, most say it is so tough but I have won for years and one of the things I use is how I find that most bettors like to back the "hot team" and fade the cold teams. It seems everyone puts way too much stock in the last game played for most NFL teams. I find value doing the opposite what these teams did the week before.

Only looked at a handful of games so far but really like the under in Knicks game and played Ok City +6.5 this morning.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX,

I'd like to thank you for your plays in this thread, which have helped me alot, and also for the discussions herein. I am a new player, only betting on a daily basis since November 08, and I'm trying to learn as much as I can.

While I'm not doing this for anything more than a boost in enjoyment of the games and a small possible income stream -- very small since I am a lot like Ice in that I am big-time conservative -- I do want to do the best job I can, and you've certainly been helping. It's appreciated.

Edit: You can still get +14 at Betjam, if you want to unload some more.

Dave
very, very important to 'learn' the NBA. I think for most people it's usually look for the obvious and then do the opposite. my first attempt for the first few weeks in the NBA was dismal...until I started fading the public. Fading the public isn't as good as it used to be but it's still a good place to start. I've got enough on Minnesota, no reason to press, a lot of my wagers are going through Macau, but not 2nd halves as much.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Let me add I am a huge volume player, averging around 25 plays a day or so. 750 total plays is an average month for me.

great stuff as always!!

When you look at a game in the NBA do you consider a team that is playing really well a good thing or do you look at that more as a negative?

Let's say if a mediocre team like Philadlephia, who is playing it's best ball of the season right now, do you tend to look down at that, thinking they will come back down to earth or do you think of them as playiing well and more times you want to back them as you expect this to continue?

Or the opposite like the Knicks, who are really stumbling of late, would you say this might be the time to get on board with them because of how bad they are playing, or do you prefer to stay away from the "cold" teams?

I have found (and I could be wrong) that I like backing teams coming off disapointing efforts a lot of times. Not saying this is the only criteria I use but I feel it's a plus in the process.

I 100% agree with your thoughts on the NFL, most say it is so tough but I have won for years and one of the things I use is how I find that most bettors like to back the "hot team" and fade the cold teams. It seems everyone puts way too much stock in the last game played for most NFL teams. I find value doing the opposite what these teams did the week before.

Only looked at a handful of games so far but really like the under in Knicks game and played Ok City +6.5 this morning.
I look at who they have been playing more than anything. Good examples with PHI and NY. I like Charlotte and NY today but will probably pass. I subset almost everything into home and away. Most teams are very different when playing on the road vs home. I look at frequencies a lot. How many times a team has won or lost by the present number. I don't typically bet against a team just because they have won a certain number in a row, but teams in slumps usually have a discounted number, and teams that have won several in a row usually have an exaggerated number. Previous meetings between teams are big as well. Did the team shoot over 55% last game. Who is the public on?

I don't see Phi as playing THAT well. They have played a lot of bad teams recently and did have close wins vs LA and Port, but when you look at their ATS performance...it really brings the 76ers back to earth. Charlotte is the right side, but I passed b/c they have a few too many losses by more than 5 on the road. They are improving IMO, I missed the 6, I decided to pass.

NY/NO: very tough game for me to figure out. opposing angles. NY shot over 55% last game so I usually look to fade them or take the under. But these two teams have opposing styles. 207 is too low to feel good about an under @NY. New Orleans isn't a very good road team. They have a winning record on the road but if you break down their schedule it's a lot of lace teams and a lot of their win were by less than 5. I think I'm going to take NY smallish. I'm also probably going to take Denver.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

SA under
2 worlds collide, playing poker but if I remember correctly both teams shot over 55% last game and with 2+ pt line move... not sure how much yet
 
Top