NBA for opening week

ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Nice night, ATX, I had you winning almost 2 units even with the tough ML losses by sac and cha. Either of those makes it a huge night. You've got me tracking stuff I never looked at before, thanks.
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interesting comments about the 55% shooting angle. I think it goes to show how few mechanical systems work blind and why a purely statistical standpoint won't work very well in the sports market. I think in the middle of the season mechanical systems tend to work better, towards the end it's more about the number itself, and by spending a lot of time watching every team for the entire year one can spot numbers that just don't look right and then combine them with a few systems.

Ice, I don't know about Washington winning SU here, even with the look-ahead to Orlando. I do think 10.5 is a lot of points, but Wiz have lost by 11 often. That 2nd half of the Dallas game Cleveland showed me some things that really have me liking their chance of winning it all. I've felt they were the best team in the NBA (or would end up on top) for the better part of the year and not saying Boston or maybe Orlando doesn't have a shot, just not as good of one. Defense wins. I think the Magic may win vs the Cavs and if the top seed is locked up Cavs will rest starters so not sure how many Cleveland ends up losing. I don't like taking the dog on spreads of 2.5, 5.5, 7.5, or 10.5 IMO these numbers are inviting action on the dog. The inverse is true IMO on 1.5, 4.5, 6.5 and 9.5, they generally lead one to believe the favorite is a cinch to win by 2, 5, 7 or ten. I'll try to get back to you regarding baseball but it's difficult to explain baseball without an actual game to narrate. I do weight WHIP very heavily and also tend to think previous meetings by a pitcher to the team he's facing is very relevant. But I compare the statistics I use to the price and that is the difficult part to explain. I don't try to figure out which team will win, only what the odds of that happening are and after volume the overlay adds up. I basically do ZERO preseason homework. I don't know who is playing for who except I remember Manny went to the Dodgers I think, that idiot JT the Brick wouldn't shut up about that when I was trying to find some NBA scores driving around..."slaving over a hot microphone...." god I hate that show.
 
B

Boston

EOG Dedicated
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
Cle/Wash under 197 for .7%
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any reason you think this total shot up so high. I liked the number and hopped on at 193.5 I think they have reached this number twice in the last 10 games one of them being sac. I'm confused :+clueless
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

for tomorrow I took Atlanta +6.5 for 1.5%
I doubt this number will be w/a again, but 6 is good enough.
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week

LOL, JT the Brick, what a POS, you rememeber him when he first appeared on the Rome show, that was his beginning.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Boston said:
any reason you think this total shot up so high. I liked the number and hopped on at 193.5 I think they have reached this number twice in the last 10 games one of them being sac. I'm confused :+clueless
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Washington is on a B2B and both teams have shot a little low percentage wise their last few games. I guess Arenas returning has something to do with it. I see the recent meetings between these two being most relative, and they do know each other fairly well as they met in the playoffs the last two years if I'm not mistaken. It looks like somebody knows something for a move this big, but I think Cleveland plays just enough D to keep it under. I discounted it b/c I think Washington may outplay the Cavs to start the game and then in the 2nd half the Cavs take over and that type of scenario lends itself somewhat to the over. Hopefully the Cavs just grind the Wiz into the ground so I can do something with the 2h.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

cheapseats said:
LOL, JT the Brick, what a POS, you rememeber him when he first appeared on the Rome show, that was his beginning.
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I never saw him there. JT is a total idiot, very few people know less about sports, not sure how he has a show. Any time a team loses he thinks they are DONE. Said the Spurs wouldn't make the playoffs when all their players were out to begin the year. Said the Clippers were a 'team to watch with Baron Davis' and when they started out the year vs the Lakers he said 'this is the battle for LOS An-gel-es, no maybe just maybe the battle for the entire NBA.' And his resident jerk-off Tom Looney or whatever it's obvious he doesn't care too much about sports, it's hard to catch the actual scores b/c he like to hear himself talk so much. Then they go off on their Oscar picks, and I don't think anyone outside of New York really cares about his feeling toward the Yankees. Any time he has a caller with a clue he just hangs up on them.
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

You don't have to go all in-depth with answering these questions or mess with that PM, I know you are very busy. A yes or no would be more then fine, basically what I was asking was this.

I was just curious if personally speaking with you, that if you took the same amount of time and energy that you put into the NBA and applied into trying to beat baseball, do you think you would be able to do just as well betting baseball as you do with the NBA? Are you confident you could win at baseball over a full season? Yes or no?

The other question is do you believe one should use situationial/daily angles to beat baseball, like a lot of winning cappers use with hoops with motivation, scheduling, look aheads, embarassed last time out, even your angle of 55% shooting or is baseball just more along the lines of a pure statistical sport when one is capping it? I have a good idea what you are talking about when you say you look for really good prices and believe they will add up over time (I do much the same), any reason to use psychological stuff at all with capping baseball, in your opinion? Thanks!!
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
Cle/Wash under 197 for .7%
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Cleveland over 196 for .7%

something is up with this total. I f'ed up yesterday, not that I lost but could have made a lot more. I'm taking Utah, and maybe a couple of 2nd halves. getting close to the Final table and I'm not gambling anymore.
 
B

Bruce Dickinson

Guest
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
Cleveland over 196 for .7%

something is up with this total. I f'ed up yesterday, not that I lost but could have made a lot more. I'm taking Utah, and maybe a couple of 2nd halves. getting close to the Final table and I'm not gambling anymore.
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that's what I like about this thread, I seem to be tuned into to the same frequency. That CLEV total is very interesting, huge steam move from 192 and the square books are shading the U......looking to get off U197 myself, none of my outs are at 196, so may wait till half to buy back or just bite the bullet and take O196.5....thank God for -105 LOL..... Like Utah as well. GL
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
You don't have to go all in-depth with answering these questions or mess with that PM, I know you are very busy. A yes or no would be more then fine, basically what I was asking was this.

I was just curious if personally speaking with you, that if you took the same amount of time and energy that you put into the NBA and applied into trying to beat baseball, do you think you would be able to do just as well betting baseball as you do with the NBA? Are you confident you could win at baseball over a full season? Yes or no?

The other question is do you believe one should use situationial/daily angles to beat baseball, like a lot of winning cappers use with hoops with motivation, scheduling, look aheads, embarassed last time out, even your angle of 55% shooting or is baseball just more along the lines of a pure statistical sport when one is capping it? I have a good idea what you are talking about when you say you look for really good prices and believe they will add up over time (I do much the same), any reason to use psychological stuff at all with capping baseball, in your opinion? Thanks!!
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1. yes. but I might make less on football. kind of like with poker I don't like having 2 sports going on at the same time too much. since I don't flat bet it makes bet sizing a little more energy consuming. in NBA basketball there is about zero percent chance I will lose over a season, in NFL I guess maybe .01 percent chance, and NCAA football maybe 5-10% chance. football is a lot easier to lose with than basketball b/c ONE fluke play can beat a VERY good number. in basketball not so much. a basketball game 5 points off is going to stay within that despite a LOT of fluke plays. the thing is with baseball I've made money every year, but if say in June I find myself down 5% (which is a lot b/c I bet .6% on avg per event) after 250 plays, I may just do something else. In the NBA this year there were a lot of changes I had to deal with and overcome. I had to give up NCAA basketball and focus b/c I felt like if I did and could really figure this thing out again that it would be extremely beneficial, and it's a skill that never goes away. In short, I used to make a killing of dog ML's. That didn't work out nearly as well this year, so I focused on totals more, did a few quarters which I used to pay zero attention to.

2. no. price is almost everything to me in baseball. in basketball and football I sometimes take a statistically 'bad line' because of situational factors. maybe the very upper echelon of baseball handicappers use some situational angles, but I don't really have anything like that. I look for +130 dogs that should be +125 or less or o8.5-120 that should be -115 or less, for example.
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX,
You see Ned's post on how Utah is 0-15 against above .500 teams the entire year on the road, losing by an average of almost 12 points per game. UGH!!

Don't want to sway you (and I am sure it won't). Sort of liking Utah a little myself but just wondering if you seen this?

Also wonder how Milwaukee feels about having to go play this one game on the road, after just getting back in town and then heading right back home for a big homestand, weird scheduling sequence. Not saying Philly was the play but you know Milwaukee and the lack of that teams heart. I would actually be impressed if the Bucks should some effort tonight in this spot but I wouldn't expect it either.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Bruce Dickinson said:
that's what I like about this thread, I seem to be tuned into to the same frequency. That CLEV total is very interesting, huge steam move from 192 and the square books are shading the U......looking to get off U197 myself, none of my outs are at 196, so may wait till half to buy back or just bite the bullet and take O196.5....thank God for -105 LOL..... Like Utah as well. GL
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well versed. I am still dead tired, got some sleep but haven't slept 8 hours at once in weeks. didn't see the move in its entirety as certain books moving ahead of the curve tells a story. I had to pay -115 for half of the cancelled train ride. These last few games before the playoffs, I need to get in the habit of passing on quite a few of them which is hard b/c I bet so many games throughout the year. Some teams quit some teams that should quit don't. Teams that don't quit take games off to rest for the playoffs. And the playoffs aren't exactly a cakewalk. It's just that the lines aren't always as accurate as they should be for multiple reasons and I'm still seeing that. big bets are over 60%.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
ATX,
You see Ned's post on how Utah is 0-15 against above .500 teams the entire year on the road, losing by an average of almost 12 points per game. UGH!!

Don't want to sway you (and I am sure it won't). Sort of liking Utah a little myself but just wondering if you seen this?

Also wonder how Milwaukee feels about having to go play this one game on the road, after just getting back in town and then heading right back home for a big homestand, weird scheduling sequence. Not saying Philly was the play but you know Milwaukee and the lack of that teams heart. I would actually be impressed if the Bucks should some effort tonight in this spot but I wouldn't expect it either.
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Ned has knockout writeups.

I looked hard at Denver for several hours. They benefit somewhat (as far as record) from an easier schedule. Utah is the 2nd most experienced team in the West IMO b/c of playoff situations. No reason that Denver shouldn't be -5.5 with their homecourt this year except for that. This is akin to a playoff game for Utah. The Jazz defense is vastly improved especially after getting Boozer back (I think he was the reason). I've looked to fade the Jazz on the road all year, they are not a good road team. I'm locked on here with multiple angles and this should be a tight game with extras favoring the Jazz SU. I usually look to fade streaks. After the Jazz were blown out in Portland and with Denver's sick home record and win streak and with Jazz covering so few games recently, no doubt what the LVSC is hoping for...lots of Denver $$. I like the Jazz SU but it's not going to be big. probably 1.5 to 1.2% total with ml. might get 6.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

I'm going with Washington +10 for .8%
no reason Cavs need to win by dd and with Magic next...
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

I'm also most likely going with 76ers 3rd q. Bucks are ahead b/c of high shooting %, Phi lack thereof and 76ers turnovers. might be -5.5 and have to pass, sure hope it's more like 4.5
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Cavs/Wiz: with 5 mins to go in 1st this is leading to an angle I've used a lot all year, to go over in the 2nd. but I just don't see it here. might have to pass, nothing is going to get me on a side for the 2nd. looking for any kind of angle that is going to give me a FULL point in a quarter or half in order to take it.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Lebron -5 3rd quarter for .5%
situational. I don't think the Cavs are apt to give up a game and a team needs to start on the road heavily in the 3rd q.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
and the Bucks in classic fashion collapse!!:houra
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nice call on the Wiz ml. either way, +500 up 10 into the 4th holds a ton of value. should have done what I've done all year and taken the over just didn't want to have to lay more than 96.
 
B

Bruce Dickinson

Guest
Re: NBA for opening week

I like to do a lot of fading, I know it gets a bad rap but it makes money. I like to troll the forums, focusing on the attention whores but also people who are horrible handicappers. Never fade a coinflipper. I see several of my golden gooses on DEN tonight, and already like DEN at -5 so I'm like a kid in the candy store right now......give me Utah -1 for the max 2H.
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
nice call on the Wiz ml. either way, +500 up 10 into the 4th holds a ton of value. should have done what I've done all year and taken the over just didn't want to have to lay more than 96.
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Thanks, I am good for about one decent moneyline upset winner a year and that was probably it, LOL.

Looks like a really nice card shaping up for tomorrow with a lot games lined in that 3-6 point range. Should be interesting.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Bruce Dickinson said:
I like to do a lot of fading, I know it gets a bad rap but it makes money. I like to troll the forums, focusing on the attention whores but also people who are horrible handicappers. Never fade a coinflipper. I see several of my golden gooses on DEN tonight, and already like DEN at -5 so I'm like a kid in the candy store right now......give me Utah -1 for the max 2H.
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Utah just cannot get it done on the road. So many things were lined up, and in the first half the Jazz had a huge rebounding edge etc...2h line was -1 -125 bodog and -1 +103 at Pinnacle when I decided to go to bed. Disappointed in Utah, but a situation I will take every time.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

was very close to taking Portland under b/c of a strong angle but was hoping it would go up, felt the number was tight at 193. then the bottom fell out so probably pass. I finally got a lot of sleep and it's taking a while to snap out of it, but I don't see a whole lot (in other words I doubt I'll be betting every game HA!) so if you see a game or total feel free to chime in here and we can give some opinions, maybe point something out that I'm not going to see. I've looked at most of the games and there's a lot of conflicting info on several of them, but this is most likely what I'm taking:

Cleveland +4
Phx under 24650
GS +5
Charlotte over 183
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

How about those DD dogs tonight? Any positive info you can throw my way?:cheers
 
I

Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
was very close to taking Portland under b/c of a strong angle but was hoping it would go up, felt the number was tight at 193. then the bottom fell out so probably pass. I finally got a lot of sleep and it's taking a while to snap out of it, but I don't see a whole lot (in other words I doubt I'll be betting every game HA!) so if you see a game or total feel free to chime in here and we can give some opinions, maybe point something out that I'm not going to see. I've looked at most of the games and there's a lot of conflicting info on several of them, but this is most likely what I'm taking:

Cleveland +4
Phx under 24650
GS +5
Charlotte over 183
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Let's make some money today:cheers

I agree a lot of confilicting information out there.

Quick question (you didn't expect less did you?): During middle of NBA season you play a lot of games (not sure if you post everything you bet)? I am/have been a high volume player in the past but been really looking deeper and being more patient with this process, not saying this is better but not betting as many plays as I usually do.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

I can't post everything I bet, and sometimes I will add to certain things etc., but I post the majority of stuff. I believe in betting anything one feels they have an advantage in so that often times amounts to a lot of plays. As the season goes on the numbers tighten up quite a bit, and some teams give less than effort than others so that tends to narrow down the volume towards the end. Games like Mavs/Memphis, Utah/Minn I would be betting during the middle of the season. No idea if Memphis and Minnesota even show up so can't even do much with the totals. My baseball research so far: I hear Peavy is struggling and the Yankees might be good this year.
 
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