Goon's Gamble - NHL 2018-2019

#57. Montreal Team Total OVER 2.5 -121 vs Buffalo 1 unit
#58. Columbus Team Total OVER 2.5 -127 vs St Louis 1 unit
#59. Edmonton Team Total OVER 2.5 -144 vs Washington 1 unit
#60. Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 2.5 -148 vs Calgary 1 unit
 
Friday Totals: 0-2 -2.28 units
Season Totals: 35-26-1 +1.36 units

Saturday's Sinkholes:
#63. New Jersey -117 over Florida 1 unit
#64. Washington Team Total OVER 2.5 -164 1 unit
#65. Tampa Bay -125 over Arizona 1 unit
 
Sunday Suckouts:
#69. NY Rangers Team Total OVER 2.5 -104 vs LA Kings 1 unit
#70. Edmonton Oilers Team Total OVER 2.5 -146 vs Chicago 1 unit
#71. Dallas -140 over Detroit 1 unit
 
If time permits, I will try to post weekly rankings on Mondays...

I break things down into 5 groups

Front Runners, Next Best, meddlers, suckers and lottery bound.

Pittsburgh - That Western Canada swing was dominating, Crosby backhands better than other guys' clappers.
Tampa - Whatever happens in Vegas, you pay for in Arizona
Toronto - Missing two thirds of their top line for a while but sharing minutes early helps them LT
Colorado - Best line in hockey and a mobile defense, last year wasn't a fluke.
Nashville - Businesslike, some ups and downs but expected without Rinne
San Jose - Road travel always takes it's toll, but early gelling will pay dividends down the road.


Edmonton - Slow start forgotten.
Winnipeg - Until they have to play the Leafs in the playoffs they'll be ok. The PP is clicking even without Laine going, that will change.
Washington - Ovy handing out sticks to kids like Santa, the monkey is off his back and surrounding cast having fun. And that PP is just nuts.
Boston - Thin blue line right now, will be ok LT. Bergeron line on fire and no suspensions or controversy for Marchand (so far)
Carolina - Keep on clapping, keep on flossing, but have you notice that they just keep on shooting? Bad pk, overs delight LT
New Jersey - Quiet confidence, very business like, just wait till the two headed goalie monster returns.


Chicago - Fun to watch but playoffs a pipe dream with their defensive and goaltending struggles
Minnesota - Concerned about their PP, they need that to click much better to be successful.
Montreal - Much better than expected, they can skate and take some pressure off price, but scoring is still light and they are undersized, should regress some.
Columbus - Lots of distractions, too much Korpisalo early in the season, smells like a Bobrovsky trade is coming and they are just setting up for the aftermath. Panarin in OT: Deadly!
Buffalo - Don't look now but change in goal giving them consistency and confidence, young D growing up fast and lots of talent on offense, plenty of upwards mobility.
Calgary - Mike Smith can't stop a beach ball right now, until they remedy that Flames in trouble in spite of some nice data in other departments.
Dallas - Top heavy, but when they are clicking they are dangerous. Missing the sandpaper of Roussel more than you think. Spezza still alive, coaching change resuscitated him.


Vegas - Early blows on D and teams actually caring about hockey when visiting Vegas make things a bit tougher, still adjusting to increased lineup depth.
Vancouver - Shocking start, a bit like Leafs last year, ahead of schedule but they don't generate a lot of scoring chances, the crazy shooting percentages won't hold up LT, will regress.
NY Islanders - Solid goaltending and a bit of depth scoring masking some big issues, coaching definitely helps, but this is not a team that will score consistently.
Florida - BobbyLou injury a massive blow early in the season and OT losses piling up but not yet concerned, better than stats would suggest, maybe trip to Finland will help them take off.
St Louis - Jake Allen. nuff said!
Anaheim - Bad team with injuries and little depth, 3 rookies in top lines not helping, only saving grade has been the goaltending of Gibson. Should regress short term.


Arizona - Don't look now but they are .500 and that's with a Coyote Ugly 10.3% pp so far, Galchenyuk's return should help elevate that.
Ottawa - Smoke and mirrors, this early season semi success won't last long, especially on the road without last change.
Philadelphia - Worst pk in the league and PP not clicking. Might have to get Gritty in the lineup to light a fuse under their collective asses.
NY Rangers - Future might be bright but it's not gonna help them much this season. Lack of speed and a bad PK, even Lundy can't cover much of those problems.
Los Angeles - Old, slow, injured, lacking depth. Blow it up, take your lumps, should have done it last year instead of trying to lipstick the pig. Stevens chalk to be first coach fired.
Detroit - Bad product on the ice, empty building, great move to keep Zedina as far away from this train wreck for the time being.
 
Saturday Totals: 3-4 -1.94 units
Sunday Totals: 1-2 -1.86 units

Season Totals: 39-32-1 -2.44 units

Slight error with the game counter, I labelled two games #69, back on track now...

Monday Maddness:
#73. NHL Grand Salami UNDER 12 -115 1 unit
 
Thought about the Leafs/ Flames over 1.5 3rd period but the juice is too top heavy. Figured they’d start slow with the Mathews injury. Dink always emphizes how a hockey injury many time chances not one line but all 4. And that’s just what happed tonight in Toronto. But the 2nd line of Kadri-Marleau-Hyman line tore up the league last season before acquiring Tavaras this year. Still may bite but that’s Gabe-like juice territory.
 
Monday Totals: 1-0 +1.00 units

Season Totals: 40-32-1 -1.44 units

Tuesday's Tilts:
#74. Calgary Flames +105 vs Buffalo 1 unit
#75. NHL Grand Salami OVER 65.5 -115 1 unit
 
Tuesday Totals: 2-0 +2.05 units
Season Totals 42-32-1 +0.61 units

Wednesday Pending...

Thursday Threats:
#77. Washington -119 over Montreal 1 unit
#78. Buffalo -123 over Ottawa 1 unit
#79. Colorado/Calgary OVER 6 -113 1 unit
 
Wednesday totals: 1-0 +1.07 units
Season Totals 43-32-1 +1.68 units

Thursday Additions:
#80. Tampa Bay -125 over Nashville 1 unit
#81. Pittsburgh -145 over NY Islanders 1 unit
 
#91. Philadelphia -125 over Arizona 1 unit

The dropoff from Raanta to Kuemper is massive, even with Pickard starting for Philly this is a mind boggling move. I would play this up to -150.
 
Saturday Night Fever:
#92. Pittsburgh/Arizona 1st Period OVER 1.5 -125 1 unit
#93. Tampa Bay -1.5 -108 over Ottawa Senators 1 unit
#94. Calgary Flames +104 over LA Kings 1 unit
 
catching up with the math massacre...

Fri Nov 2 1-1 -0.11 units
Sat Nov 3 2-3 -1.62 units
Sun Nov 4 0-1 -1.20 units
Thu Nov 8 1-0 +1.00 units
Sat Nov 10 1-2 -1.29 units

Season Totals: 50-43-1 -4.66 units
 
Monday's Monsters:
#95 Vancouver +125 over NY Rangers 1 unit
#96 Carolina -170 over Chicago 1 unit
#97 Dallas Team Total OVER 2.5 -139 vs Columbus 1 unit
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
catching up with the math massacre...

Fri Nov 2 1-1 -0.11 units
Sat Nov 3 2-3 -1.62 units
Sun Nov 4 0-1 -1.20 units
Thu Nov 8 1-0 +1.00 units
Sat Nov 10 1-2 -1.29 units

Season Totals: 50-43-1 -4.66 units

Scorekeeping is easy and fun when you're winning.

Not so much when you're losing.

Thanks for the dedicated recordkeeping, DG.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Tuesday Nov 13:

Not sure what I wanna do with Kings/Leaves game. Debating on Leaves -128ish or PL +218ish. Kings goaltending situation is as ugly as it gets.
 
Scorekeeping is easy and fun when you're winning.

Not so much when you're losing.

Thanks for the dedicated recordkeeping, DG.
catching up with the math massacre...

Fri Nov 2 1-1 -0.11 units
Sat Nov 3 2-3 -1.62 units
Sun Nov 4 0-1 -1.20 units
Thu Nov 8 1-0 +1.00 units
Sat Nov 10 1-2 -1.29 units

Season Totals: 50-43-1 -4.66 units
Do you break these down and chart your records in sides-totals-props-team totals and over/unders?
 
Here's a quick summary
October Totals:

95.69 units risked 1.88 units profit 1.96% hold on 76 total bets
Team Totals performed best with +5.93 return on 24.33 units risked
Totals were solid with 3.52 units won on 16.85 units risked. (Salami is included in here)
Sides were horrible. -6.94 units on 49.31 units risked (Salami Sides included in here)

November totals coming at the end of the month.

Side note, you might want to be in full fade mode on Saturdays, these are the day of the week totals for October. It's probably not as random as you might think, I spend a lot of time on Fri night and Sat working on soccer, that tends to take away a bit of focus on NHL info. Small sample but it's never too early to identify issues.

Day/Volume/PL/ROI
Monday $8.76 $7.02 80.14%
Tuesday $17.47 $3.35 19.18%
Wednesday $14.44 $0.99 6.86%
Thursday $26.49 -$1.32 -4.98%
Friday $3.58 -$1.28 -35.75%
Saturday $20.96 -$7.37 -35.16%
Sunday $6.40 $0.29 4.53%
 
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