Goon's Gamble - NHL 2018-2019

I don't recall another year in recent memory where so many starting keepers have been out injured or otherwise this early in the season:

Goaltending Situations:
Arizona - Raanta out lower body injury
Boston - Rask personal leave
Carolina - Mrazek lower body injury
Chicago - Crawford still working his way back from LT injury
Columbus - Bobrovski losing starting time due to upcoming FA status, backup getting serious looks
Florida - Luongo missed a few weeks at the start of the season
Los Angeles - Quick and Campbell currently out, down to 3rd stringer
Montreal - Price not on top of his game, he's got some nagging physical issue and that's messing with his head, too much ice time for backup so far imo
Nashville - Rinne missed a couple of weeks, they don't miss a beat with Saros in there.
New Jersey - Schneider still walking on eggshells since missing most of LY
Philadelphia - Neuvirth out 2 weeks and counting
Pittsburgh - Murray off to shaky start after missing time at the start of the season
St Louis - Allen clearly has confidence issues, needs to see a shrink, or is it the Blues environment that does that to goalies, they all seem allergic to stopping the puck consistently.
Tampa - Vasy broken bone
Vancouver - Nilsson broken finger
Washington - Holtby's upper body

Is the equipment reduction getting these guys hurt? Not sure, but the goals are flying in and any time you get a depth guy in there only helps the overs.
 
I don't recall another year in recent memory where so many starting keepers have been out injured or otherwise this early in the season:



Is the equipment reduction getting these guys hurt? Not sure, but the goals are flying in and any time you get a depth guy in there only helps the overs.
Could be. I've read numerous articles about guys saying they went too far with the reductions this time. I'm assuming scoring is up. And that's good for the league but have to believe they will look into this in the offseason. If it wasn't for so many getting hurt they'd poo poo it, but Bettman and the league are not negligent so my guess is it will be addressed. I read one goaltender say he feels every shot this year like never before. If the goals are up, have to believe it will only get higher with each starter missing action. Can you imagine the speed at which they shoot that puck these days and the protection is getting skimpier? They like more scoring but they aren't widening the goals anytime soon.

On a side note. The Leafs have learned to win without Mathews. Will only make them that much stronger once he's back. Mitch Marner making them forget about Johnny Gaudreau in terms of today's prototypical little man. He's really special.
 
Early Saturday Action:
#102. New Jersey -150 over Detroit 1 unit
Opener was high but this drop is just an overreaction to Vatanen and Hischier being out. Wings owe a lot of their recent success to Howard's unbelievable goaltending, but he's not starting today.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I just don't understand how the Blues can be as big of a fave as they are against the Kings. I know both teams suck. This is 3-in-4 for both teams with each playing the previous on the road with Blues actually playing 3 straight roadies. Blues are a walking M*A*S*H unit and I find it hard to justfiy the Blues laying this much wood

Kings +135 is something I cannot - and did not - pass up.
 
The hits just keep on coming... Great fade material for you guys at this point

Monday Nov 12 1-2 -1.39 units
Wednesday Nov 14 1-0 +1.00 units
Thursday Nov 15 1-2 -1.65 units
Saturday Nov 17 0-1 -1.50 units
Sunday Nov 18 0-1 -1.00 units

Season Totals: 53-49-1 -9.20 units
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Posted this in the Wed Nov 21 BB thread - will post it here now, too:

Pinny

Colorado Avalanche ML -104 AND PL +256

This is a game I have had circled for over a week

This is a fabulous scheduling opportunity here for this game - for the Avs:

Kings off a 3-in-4 roadie with a game Friday in Chicago. Saturday was a B2B with Nashville. Monday was at St. Louis.

Avs played Friday at home against the Caps. Sunday they played at Anaheim.

So now let's look at things in more detail here:

Kings played 3 road games in 4 days with the last one being Monday Night in St. Louis. No way the Kings got home before 2A on Tuesday morning. Wednesday's game marks 4-in-6 for the Kings.

The Avs played Sunday in Anaheim w/a 5P start time (Avs won in OT). Avs will have about 72 hours between games and no travel since the Kings/Ducks are about a 30-ish mile drive apart. My guess is the Avs either had Monday off or a light skate day and practiced Tuesday. They will be very well rested for this game.

So come Wednesday we have an old and slow team that will be playing 4-in-6 and has to be fatigued against a younger and faster team that will be flying from the start because they will be well rested. This one has the makings of something big time ugly. The Kings have gotten GREAT goaltending from Cal Petersen who won his 1st ever start Friday in Chicago (not far from where he grew up - and his family was there) and Monday he shut out the Blues 2-0 so he is playing well. No idea if he plays of the other goalie Peter Budaj. I sense Petersen will be in net and I am fine with that - reality will be harsh for the kid against a team that will make the one extra pass and create a shot with an open net instead of a goalie in the way. If Budaj is in net the Avs will cream the Kings. I see this game as a great chance to play the Avs on both the ML and PL and get no worse than B/E from it. This game has the makings of something like a very easy 4-1 Avs win. It might be close thru 2P but if so I expect the Avs to pull away in 3P and exploit the Rest over Fatigue factor and outscore the Kings by at least 2 goals if close. If we are looking at something like Avs up 3-0/4-1 thru 2P I am confident 3P won't see the PL play crash.
 

VegasVic

EOG Senior Member
Posted this in the Wed Nov 21 BB thread - will post it here now, too:

Pinny

Colorado Avalanche ML -104 AND PL +256

This is a game I have had circled for over a week

This is a fabulous scheduling opportunity here for this game - for the Avs:

Kings off a 3-in-4 roadie with a game Friday in Chicago. Saturday was a B2B with Nashville. Monday was at St. Louis.

Avs played Friday at home against the Caps. Sunday they played at Anaheim.

So now let's look at things in more detail here:

Kings played 3 road games in 4 days with the last one being Monday Night in St. Louis. No way the Kings got home before 2A on Tuesday morning. Wednesday's game marks 4-in-6 for the Kings.

The Avs played Sunday in Anaheim w/a 5P start time (Avs won in OT). Avs will have about 72 hours between games and no travel since the Kings/Ducks are about a 30-ish mile drive apart. My guess is the Avs either had Monday off or a light skate day and practiced Tuesday. They will be very well rested for this game.

So come Wednesday we have an old and slow team that will be playing 4-in-6 and has to be fatigued against a younger and faster team that will be flying from the start because they will be well rested. This one has the makings of something big time ugly. The Kings have gotten GREAT goaltending from Cal Petersen who won his 1st ever start Friday in Chicago (not far from where he grew up - and his family was there) and Monday he shut out the Blues 2-0 so he is playing well. No idea if he plays of the other goalie Peter Budaj. I sense Petersen will be in net and I am fine with that - reality will be harsh for the kid against a team that will make the one extra pass and create a shot with an open net instead of a goalie in the way. If Budaj is in net the Avs will cream the Kings. I see this game as a great chance to play the Avs on both the ML and PL and get no worse than B/E from it. This game has the makings of something like a very easy 4-1 Avs win. It might be close thru 2P but if so I expect the Avs to pull away in 3P and exploit the Rest over Fatigue factor and outscore the Kings by at least 2 goals if close. If we are looking at something like Avs up 3-0/4-1 thru 2P I am confident 3P won't see the PL play crash.
Providing Peterson is in net, I think it’s a solid under 5.5.
 
Quarter of the season in the books... A few quick thoughts

Kings in last place not a shocker, Pens in last place... not sure about that one.

4 coaches gone, at this pace we'll scrub half the ranks before the playoffs start.

Canadian teams:
Leafs so good without 2 of their top 4 players, scary if they get it all figured out and healthy by the Dec 1 Nylander deadline.

Sens - The gift that keeps on giving, have to wonder what the next drama will be. Maybe they get a backup goalie to take some load of Anderson, he can't survive this pace.

Habs - Getting their captain back will help but the smoke and mirrors will eventually fade out and they will be exposed. I put them at less than 25% to make the playoffs

Winnipeg - At times unstoppable, at times they look like a team going through the motions waiting for the real games (playoffs) to begin.

Flames - Expected more, if only they could admit they were wrong about Smith and start their best gk they should be able to make a move to pull away in the pathetic pacific.

Oilers - get ready for 25+ minutes of McDavid and 3 checking lines under Hitch. How is their cup window looking now?

Canucks - It's been fun while it lasted, but without center depth they are running Bo into the ground, he can't hop on and off lines to take 40+ faceoffs every night and start in his end zone most of his shifts.


Blues were a preseason darling, but it is where goaltending careers go to die (west, can't take away the east from Philly). Injuries not helping, Berube coaching should be fun to watch, he will blow up on someone, just keep the cameras rolling at practice.

Atlantic:

TB - Point is now the man in that offence, imagine Stamkos being the 3rd option on that pp. Good test without Vasy for a few weeks, Domingue deserves some quality playing time to prove his worth.

Sabres are streaking. I had Hutton ranked in the bottom tier of goaltending coming into the season and that was in part because of their inexperienced D but Housley is really putting his stamp on that group. Offense was never a problem but getting doouble digits+ goals from Skinner takes the pressure off #9.

Bruins - Their top 3 Dmen out and their top FW out, their GK a headcase and they just keep on ticking. Love their depth, look out for a similar 2H run like last year.

Florida is still finding their identity, don't sleep on them, they have size, scoring and D... Goaltending a bit suspect no matter how much I respect Luongo's track record.

Wings recovered well from crappy start, it helps having two real head coaches behind the bench. And Howard might be the hottest goalie in the league right now.

Metro:
Caps proving last year was no fluke, they have injury problems but when fit they are the champs and will be tough to knock off.

Rangers in 2nd place? WTF... 8-3 at home will do it, but I still can't figure out how, they've been killing me all season.

Columbus is dysfunctional and that's how Torts likes it. Controlled chaos with backup getting massive playing time in net, Milano in Cleveland and Panarin waiting for his ticket out of town.

Devils I expected more from, not sure what they are right now, they are not a defensive team and they are not a transition team, they lack secondary scoring when Hall is not carrying the team like a piano mover.

Fliers special teams are just crazy... they might as well concede every time they take a penalty rather than the ugly pk displays they've showcased. I think they should put Gritty on the PK, it can't get any worse.

Isles - I can't get excited about them just yet, they are one head case blow up from their GK away from fighting for a high lottery pick. The 4th line scoring can't be sustained and that defense is just going to get exposed in the 2H of the season.
 
Sens circus just keeps on rolling out performances...

NCC tells Melnyk to get his ducks in order yesterday with January deadline for LeBreton Flats construction site, so today he sues his partner for $700 million. that will get the ball rolling LMAO
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Buffalo Sabres now sit #1 in NHL standings... Worst to first journey in just 6 months.
AWESOME for them. They are great fans to put up with what they have for as long as they have. Since the Kings are not gonna win the Cup this season (or several more down the line) why not give these long suffering fans something to cheer for. They live in Buffalo - that is bad enough but the fact they haven't had a Championship in an eternity - why not give them something to celebrate
 
Nice run but lets be honest, they are not winning anything with Carter Hutton in net.

Greatest stat going into last night, 8 game winning streak and the game winning goals were scored by 8 different players.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Nice run but lets be honest, they are not winning anything with Carter Hutton in net.

Greatest stat going into last night, 8 game winning streak and the game winning goals were scored by 8 different players.
No argument but if they stay near the top of the East they should be able to acquire someone who can help them win a Cup. I sense if they want to absorb the contract they could get Quick from the Kings. We can then debate if he can help them win a Cup but they could get him if they really wanted to do so
 
Bobrovsky, Anderson both available with no LT strings attached but I doubt they would get someone after committing to Hutton LT.

5 seasons of Quick at close to 6m per season is not expensive but he's got a lot of mileage on his body, doubt his contract fits in with the Sabres window.

Buffalo won't finish any higher than 4th in their division, a 7th seed at best in the east, will be nice to make playoffs but improvement is all they are after this year.
 

VegasVic

EOG Senior Member
I’ve been watching the Sabres lately and was surprised at their depth. The maturation of their young #1 picks and additions of Skinner and Sheary really has been the difference. They skate with confidence and swagger. Passing from the dmen is tape to tape. Ristolainen repeatedly treated Abdelkader like a rag doll. Mittelstadt could puck handle in a booth. Tage Thompson has a rocket from the half wall.

Solid top six and three legitimate scoring lines.

While Hutton is inconsistent he did just limit Tampa Bay and Winnipeg to one goal each in consecutive starts. Linus Ullmark is their future and maybe sooner than later. For the most part he has been impressive in his 7 starts. He was sensational last night.
 
Agree that Buffalo are much improved, but on D they are top heavy and their 3rd pairing often gets exposed. Okposo has been a man on a mission and Skinner's addition really filled a big void, they needed some wing scoring. I haven't seen much of Thompson, but that move in the SO last night was filthy. Mittelstadt checks all the boxes for a decent #2 center with some size, but he needs to score consistently, he's a bit behind in development than where I thought he would be coming out of college.
 
Recap time, this one a bit sweeter than most...

Monday Nov 19 3-0 +3.00 units
Wednesday Nov 21 2-1 +1.00 units
Friday Nov 23 3-1 +1.90 units
Saturday Nov 24 3-0 +3.00 units
Sunday Nov 25 1-0 +1.00 units (assuming Oilers/Kings completion)

Season Totals: 65-51-1 +0.70 units

Small typo error in labeling this week, I had #113 twice (once Fri, once Sat)... that will be fixed with next play posted
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Recap time, this one a bit sweeter than most...

Monday Nov 19 3-0 +3.00 units
Wednesday Nov 21 2-1 +1.00 units
Friday Nov 23 3-1 +1.90 units
Saturday Nov 24 3-0 +3.00 units
Sunday Nov 25 1-0 +1.00 units (assuming Oilers/Kings completion)

Season Totals: 65-51-1 +0.70 units


Small typo error in labeling this week, I had #113 twice (once Fri, once Sat)... that will be fixed with next play posted

Head above water.
 
Tuesday's Teeth Grinders:
#119. San Jose -117 over Buffalo 1 unit
#120. Carolina +107 over Montreal 1 unit
#121. Vegas -113 over Chicago 1 unit
#122. Vancouver -102 over Los Angeles 1 unit
 
#125. Toronto -135 over San Jose 2 units
AM is back tonight and the price drops 20c? Gimme a double dose of that, especially with Sharks playing on B2B and with Ottawa look ahead return for Karlsson. Oh, and Dell starting. TYVM
 
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