The sad part is that you're serious. It has nothing to do with which is the better shot with 10 seconds to go down 1.
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You're talking about the Men of the Round Table, that's why they have a seat. May they Feast on Sunday!
All Hail The King!
The sad part is that you're serious. It has nothing to do with which is the better shot with 10 seconds to go down 1.
I wonder if its game 7, does Lebron make that pass?
ESPN doesn't make 10-part 30 for 30's for passing to the open man with a championship on the line.
GameBred is a clever guy.
Bred - that's over a whole game. 1.14 is irrelevant. Just think about it. If 1,000,000 points were given to hit beyond the arch and the odds of making the shot is 20%, do you want the last shot to be a 1,000,000 point shot down 1?1. You're the one who brought up "the math" w/out even knowing what you are talking about.
2. I am 100% seriouos when I tell you 1.14 is greater than 1
3. The sad part is, you have no idea how to think about shit.
his math says otherwise.GameBred is a clever guy.
Bred - that's over a whole game. 1.14 is irrelevant. Just think about it. If 1,000,000 points were given to hit beyond the arch and the odds of making the shot is 20%, do you want the last shot to be a 1,000,000 point shot down 1?
If Danny Green takes the last shot, he has a 38% chance to make the shot. That's all that matters.Ok. Let's talk about it.
If Danny Green is taking a 3-pt shot and Second Spectrum says he had ~38% chance to hit it, what is the EV of that shot?
If Danny Green takes the last shot, he has a 38% chance to make the shot. That's all that matters.
Now what are the odds of Brick making the shot or going to the line?
The shot itself is worth 3 or 0. However, we don't know if he is going to make it or not, thus we turn to expectation. The EV of that shot was more than they were down by. Yes, you can't score 1.14 pts, but that's how you need to think about it.
The shot itself is worth 3 or 0. However, we don't know if he is going to make it or not, thus we turn to expectation. The EV of that shot was more than they were down by. Yes, you can't score 1.14 pts, but that's how you need to think about it.
over the whole game, not last shot. Simple concept. ..................What's the EV if the shot is worth 1,000,000 points and you have a 10% chance of making it? It doesn't matter.I understand that this isn't a natural or even intuitive way to think about it but you need to cultivate an EV Mindset.
If Danny Green takes the last shot, he has a 38% chance to make the shot. That's all that matters.
over the whole game, not last shot. Simple concept. ..................What's the EV if the shot is worth 1,000,000 points and you have a 10% chance of making it? It doesn't matter.
StopIt does matter, whats my expectation on that shot?.....100,000 pts. If we are down by 99,999 then I like the shot.
Stop
We went with the criteria of being down 1, last shot.
We went with the criteria of being down 1, last shot.
There is no shot that is guaranteed to go in.... You have to think in terms of Expectation.
38% for Green, now what are the odds of Brick making the shot or going to the line?
Tied or down by 1, most times option B is to kick out for a 3.
I think that is wrong. Option B should be a 10-15 footer.
Much higher percentage.
There is no shot that is guaranteed to go in.... You have to think in terms of Expectation.
You want to use EV of multiple trials. You don't have any idea what you're talking about.
Now you're starting to get it. Long term worth 1.14, not last shot. Last shot is 0 or 3. Multiple trials EV is irrelevant.This is projection.
Yes, over the long term, that shot is worth 1.14 pts. We don't know if the next trial is going in or not, all we have is the Expectation.
Now you're starting to get it. Long term worth 1.14, not last shot. Last shot is 0 or 3. Multiple trials EV is irrelevant.
What? Are you being serious?
If the last shot is worth 3-pts and it has a 38% probability of going in, what is the Point Expectation of that shot?
After you answer this, go delete your last 10 posts.
StopWhat? Are you being serious?
If the last shot is worth 3-pts and it has a 38% probability of going in, what is the Point Expectation of that shot?
Stop