NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
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ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
the NBA is boring. will typically stay that way until the 2nd round of the playoffs. usually a couple first round matchups that are fun. wary of teams that are in the process of quitting I don't feel OKC is quitting quite yet, the home court to them over the last several weeks is very big. I'm looking for reasons to back the Kings and Memphis, but only Memphis will probably get much of a nod. Sure the Lakers will be 'fired up' after losing two straight, but Memphis will be just a little motivated as well playing LA. Memphis has pulled the massive DD upsets. They have also been blown the f out. I think 55% of the time the Griz can stay within 16 of the Lakers, but not sure how much more often. No real idea about what the Kings can or will do against a team fighting for the playoffs, but the public is on the Pacers in a big way.
the NBA is boring. will typically stay that way until the 2nd round of the playoffs. usually a couple first round matchups that are fun. wary of teams that are in the process of quitting I don't feel OKC is quitting quite yet, the home court to them over the last several weeks is very big. I'm looking for reasons to back the Kings and Memphis, but only Memphis will probably get much of a nod. Sure the Lakers will be 'fired up' after losing two straight, but Memphis will be just a little motivated as well playing LA. Memphis has pulled the massive DD upsets. They have also been blown the f out. I think 55% of the time the Griz can stay within 16 of the Lakers, but not sure how much more often. No real idea about what the Kings can or will do against a team fighting for the playoffs, but the public is on the Pacers in a big way.
Re: NBA for opening week
alright ATX sounds like your bout to do some BIG THINGS.. think i might have to ride everything blind pretty husky!!! LETS DO WORK SON
alright ATX sounds like your bout to do some BIG THINGS.. think i might have to ride everything blind pretty husky!!! LETS DO WORK SON
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
decided just to leave everything as is. I think a couple of those ML's hit. I understand where the numbers on the big dogs come from but I tend to think that the home records get worse and the road records get better.
I like NY but may pass.
I like NJ with Boston with Cleve up next but will probably pass
decided just to leave everything as is. I think a couple of those ML's hit. I understand where the numbers on the big dogs come from but I tend to think that the home records get worse and the road records get better.
I like NY but may pass.
I like NJ with Boston with Cleve up next but will probably pass
cheapseats
EOG Master
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
bigger than most. I've increased wager size somewhat gradually over the last 2-3 weeks. I wait until I've proven an advantage in a sport in a given season before taking too many over 1.5%. Since the 1h total was 102 I was close to just waiting until the 2h to take the under, but too many times a lot of the value is gone with that strategy. I liked Portland but I don't like having same game sides and totals too much. Between now and the playoffs there will be an increasing number of unbettable games so it's best to make the most of the ones that are left.
bigger than most. I've increased wager size somewhat gradually over the last 2-3 weeks. I wait until I've proven an advantage in a sport in a given season before taking too many over 1.5%. Since the 1h total was 102 I was close to just waiting until the 2h to take the under, but too many times a lot of the value is gone with that strategy. I liked Portland but I don't like having same game sides and totals too much. Between now and the playoffs there will be an increasing number of unbettable games so it's best to make the most of the ones that are left.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Congrats X, you are hands down tops around here....
Congrats X, you are hands down tops around here....
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks for the compliment...
I don't see this as a contest and I am pleasantly surprised at the lack of negativity in this forum. The RX was quite different, amusingly dense. I don't usually have time to read many other posters, but I just read Ned's write up on the Denver under and he did an outstanding job. I look at much of the same. I don't usually have time to do write ups and I really appreciate those who do. It's not possible to see everything on every game and it's also important to get multiple perspectives to further the understanding of line values, movements, and percentages involved. The 2nd half 98-99.5 middle hit, OLY is taking some stands lately, but they could be based on huge action, doubt it. Either way, good to see. Whole numbers are worth quite a bit more now than at the beginning of the year, qualified middles generally hit more frequently as well so there's usually line moves then a little more buy-back.
I'm not sure why I keep thinking that the playoffs are about to start. I guess because they should. But no, we have 6 more weeks of mostly bad basketball, I don't know if I can ever bet on the Clippers or Washington again this year. There are always bad teams, but these two stick out as being exceptionally bad.
I will be looking for Toronto +2. Heat shot +55% and are terrible on the road. They are worse than their road record. Quite a few narrow victories over bad teams. And Toronto is also a bad team right now...but they have played strong competition recently. Toronto has the Cavs after the Heat so they should give a little extra to get a win in this one. Winning six straight over Miami should give them a little added confidence, can't go large as they may have quit. Public will be all over Heat.
Denver +9.5 for 1.5%
despite the B2B. Utah has won 9 straight and each victory is by a narrower margin. They have basically identical records and Utah does have maybe the biggest HCA over the last few years when comparing home/away but Nuggets are above .500 on the road. I'm always looking to take dog moneylines on teams that are about the same record-wise.
Cleveland. Boston shot +55%. Garnett being out is a big deal in this game. Boston's defense has been poor recently without him. Not a large wager b/c it's not going to be easy and I'm not convinced the Cavs will win. Home court in this rivalry has been HUGE.
Houston has gone over 225 twice in regulation. PHX shot over 55% LG. After looking at Rox games vs GS and NY seems like this one should go under. There are probably a lot better things to do with money tomorrow than bet a Suns under so may pass or wait until 2h.
Atl/Cha total looks awfully low. Definition of trap. I think it goes over, but I may 'bet' it goes under.
Without Garnett I tend to think Bos/Cle goes over. Different type of game.
thanks for the compliment...
I don't see this as a contest and I am pleasantly surprised at the lack of negativity in this forum. The RX was quite different, amusingly dense. I don't usually have time to read many other posters, but I just read Ned's write up on the Denver under and he did an outstanding job. I look at much of the same. I don't usually have time to do write ups and I really appreciate those who do. It's not possible to see everything on every game and it's also important to get multiple perspectives to further the understanding of line values, movements, and percentages involved. The 2nd half 98-99.5 middle hit, OLY is taking some stands lately, but they could be based on huge action, doubt it. Either way, good to see. Whole numbers are worth quite a bit more now than at the beginning of the year, qualified middles generally hit more frequently as well so there's usually line moves then a little more buy-back.
I'm not sure why I keep thinking that the playoffs are about to start. I guess because they should. But no, we have 6 more weeks of mostly bad basketball, I don't know if I can ever bet on the Clippers or Washington again this year. There are always bad teams, but these two stick out as being exceptionally bad.
I will be looking for Toronto +2. Heat shot +55% and are terrible on the road. They are worse than their road record. Quite a few narrow victories over bad teams. And Toronto is also a bad team right now...but they have played strong competition recently. Toronto has the Cavs after the Heat so they should give a little extra to get a win in this one. Winning six straight over Miami should give them a little added confidence, can't go large as they may have quit. Public will be all over Heat.
Denver +9.5 for 1.5%
despite the B2B. Utah has won 9 straight and each victory is by a narrower margin. They have basically identical records and Utah does have maybe the biggest HCA over the last few years when comparing home/away but Nuggets are above .500 on the road. I'm always looking to take dog moneylines on teams that are about the same record-wise.
Cleveland. Boston shot +55%. Garnett being out is a big deal in this game. Boston's defense has been poor recently without him. Not a large wager b/c it's not going to be easy and I'm not convinced the Cavs will win. Home court in this rivalry has been HUGE.
Houston has gone over 225 twice in regulation. PHX shot over 55% LG. After looking at Rox games vs GS and NY seems like this one should go under. There are probably a lot better things to do with money tomorrow than bet a Suns under so may pass or wait until 2h.
Atl/Cha total looks awfully low. Definition of trap. I think it goes over, but I may 'bet' it goes under.
Without Garnett I tend to think Bos/Cle goes over. Different type of game.