NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

I don't see this as a contest and I am pleasantly surprised at the lack of negativity in this forum. The RX was quite different, amusingly dense. I don't usually have time to read many other posters, but I just read Ned's write up on the Denver under and he did an outstanding job. I look at much of the same. I don't usually have time to do write ups and I really appreciate those who do. It's not possible to see everything on every game and it's also important to get multiple perspectives to further the understanding of line values, movements, and percentages involved. The 2nd half 98-99.5 middle hit, OLY is taking some stands lately, but they could be based on huge action, doubt it. Either way, good to see. Whole numbers are worth quite a bit more now than at the beginning of the year, qualified middles generally hit more frequently as well so there's usually line moves then a little more buy-back.

Yes, I won't bet half points, but that is b/c I just get clobbered on them. I'd rather pass or pay the juice anymore. For me, the half becomes luck, incredible luck. I just pass 99% of the time, but that's b/c I see the book as a POS if they have to hang the hook.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Even double OT didn't stop this one from cashing.:cheers
I almost always hate OT....
dogs and unders graveyard.
I think that was the first sweep of more than 3 games all year, I usually have nearly dd over the 82. but no 0-fers I can remember either. and I will take steady eating over an occasional buffet. now I focus on the mistakes of the night. passed on ATL 2h ML, I was real close to taking +170 for quite a bit. passed on ORL 2h over 91 for almost as much. those were the 2 best bets (other than Portland) of the night, I was on both for full games so a little more risky than I like. Passed on Portland, wanted to wait until the half. I liked the 2h under but I've seen games like this one get crazy in the 2nd half too many times.

No way to take Charlotte tomorrow. The public will be on SA in a big way, but the books got their licks in tonight. Bobcats are on a crazy shooting streak. but that brings me to their competition recently, ehhh. Looking back at the scores vs. better road competition a little earlier at Phoenix, Houston, Utah, Denver, and Denver I think I can override SA looking ahead to LA. SA is veteran and I don't think they look ahead at this point. Sometimes they take whole games off to rest their players and I hope this one is not one of them. Only 2 of their last 10 games were played without a day of rest so I don't see them giving up a home contest. Need to ck stat of Manu. Not a really big bet as I hate laying 6 but probably hits 7. The home and away numbers show the origin of the number but on Jan 19 SA was a 5 point road favorite against CHA. since that time Bobcats have won 3 more than they have lost something like 12-9, but SA has lost once at home with injuries to Cleveland. CHA did beat the Lakers at home once upon a time and are playing well enough to cover. I tend to think that these 2 days off chill the Bobcats, they have two full days off after this game as well. Yikes, early returns have the public on the Bobcats bigbig. discount.

SA -6 for 1.3%
I think it also goes under (similar to @Rox), but will probably pass until the 2h.
 

Boston

EOG Dedicated
Re: NBA for opening week

wondering what you see in the clipps over i'm looking at the clipps injury report on nba.com and they have davis and camby as doubtful davis and randolph out. Not doubting you see something but where are the buckets going to come from
 
Re: NBA for opening week

wondering what you see in the clipps over i'm looking at the clipps injury report on nba.com and they have davis and camby as doubtful davis and randolph out. Not doubting you see something but where are the buckets going to come from
I've been out so not sure if injury report has been updated, but this is from the am.

Cleveland Cavaliers Injuries


C
Ben Wallace
fibula
OUT
is out indefinitely.

Los Angeles Clippers Injuries


G
Baron Davis
hamstring
Probable
missed last game, is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs Cleveland.


03/09
F
Zach Randolph
personal
Probable
is probable Tuesday vs Cleveland.


03/10
FC
Marcus Camby
migraine
OUT
is downgraded to OUT Tuesday vs Cleveland.


Players listed as Probable
03/09
C
Chris Kaman
foot
Probable
missed an extended period of time, is upgraded to probable for limited minutes Tuesday vs Cleveland


Players listed as OUT
03/06
G
Ricky Davis
knee
OUT
is out indefinitely.

It's always dicey with the Clippers. They don't play defense. LAC has given up over 100 too many times to count. Cavs tend to play more offensively minded on the road vs teams with poor defense. I would be very hesitant to go over the current total even though some people I respect like it to get close to 200. I'm also hearing that a lot of the public is betting the under. I tended to see this one end up like the LAC vs Por, Lakers games when I looked at it this morning.

Indiana +4 for 1.1%
about the same at +3.5
I don't like this as much as I usually like home dogs vs Jazz. Every year Utah is favored on the road, almost every year they are below .500 on the road
 
Re: NBA for opening week

You just can't stay away from them, :)....tailing
I think they will actually try tonight. Or better put, hope they try for 3 quarters tonight. I was close to laying 10 with the Cavs but the LAC beat the Celtics not too long ago. I was leaning heavy to the OKC over but not sure. Not sure about Dallas or Milwaukee.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Phoenix -5.5 for 1.1%
the Mavs can win this game, and it's about time for them to pull something out of their ass and win. But I think this is a tough spot for Dallas and no reason to expect much differently than another road dd loss after shooting over 55% last game. I liked the under b/c of previous matchups but feel this is a better bet.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Milwaukee -3.5 for 1.1%
...if the playoffs started today the Bucks would be there. Is it too early yet to count on these teams to try to keep it that way? probably, but the Knicks have lost a lot of games by 5 points, exactly 5 points. and that is what I hope the true line turns out to be. a lot of favorites today. unless it's early ncaa football it's not usually too good of a thing.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I think they will actually try tonight. Or better put, hope they try for 3 quarters tonight. I was close to laying 10 with the Cavs but the LAC beat the Celtics not too long ago. I was leaning heavy to the OKC over but not sure. Not sure about Dallas or Milwaukee.
They tried, they wanted to win and tried to play a slow game to match the Cavs, you were spot on. This is the thing, we never know with totals how a team perceives the opportunity to beat someone. Onward and upward X.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

They tried, they wanted to win and tried to play a slow game to match the Cavs, you were spot on. This is the thing, we never know with totals how a team perceives the opportunity to beat someone. Onward and upward X.
looked like the Cavs weren't trying too hard until the 4th....

OKC +14 for 1.1%
ML +1100 for .2%
prev meetings, Denver hasn't beaten many people at home by this number.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

Must have missed it, I saw 13.5 last I looked and 13.5 just now. Thanks, Diogee, I have another hour to find that 1/2 point.:cheers
Not sure the price you are looking for but you could throw out +14 -110 on match giving someone 9 cents to sell the half.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Not sure the price you are looking for but you could throw out +14 -110 on match giving someone 9 cents to sell the half.
Just did exactly that, it's only 1/4 unit, so I'm not too concerned, but I am a diligent line shopper. TY, great minds think alike.:cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

been playing poker, didn't have time to post much yesterday.

Phoenix/Cleveland under 220 for 2.0%

I have this line about 8-10 points different.

Cleveland has gone over 220 once all year, Phx shot 55% last game.

I feel these recent games are a better representative of the 'true' total.

2/24 Charlotte @Phoenix 112-102

1/23 Cleveland @GS 106-105

2/11 Phoenix @Cleveland 92-109 (Nash DNP)

leaning to SA and Phx plus the points
 
Re: NBA for opening week

SA -2 to -120 for .8%
there are some -2 -115's out there. I was hoping the line might dip a little closer to game time but not so sure about that. 3rd in 4 for the Lakers, and the previous 2 were against top-notch teams. I think the 4th q at Houston took a little gas out of the Lakers tanks. Pau logged 42 mins last night. this is the time of year that those 3rd in 4's really start taking their toll. Lakers last 3rd in 4 B2B was Denver, lost 79-90. at Utah lost 109-113. before that they were more successful in the 3rd in 4 B2B situation at Boston over a month ago, and the previous meeting between the two in SA was a 3rd in 4 that SA one by a point. much bigger game for SA. Lakers have top seed all but wrapped up, their road schedule after this game consists of the Rose Garden and a couple of fighting easties. SA has Houston, Utah, Denver, Portland, Dallas all nipping at their heels. Fairly tough schedule remaining for the Spurs.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Excellent points on the Spurs, and I was already on that cle/PHX under, thanks and GL.:smoking2:
a little nervous about this being a one point game, but I think SA pulls away in the 4th. I think Phx +4.5 is the right side, but I'm a little gun-shy. It's tough to win both side and total on one game. plus Phx shot 55% last game. I think of all the teams the 55% angle affects the Suns the least, but one thing that bothers me about Suns +4.5---SIA has +4 and Blowdog did for a while as well. good luck guys, NBA tends to get a little trick starting right about now, it's the one part of the season that I think a person really benefits the most from watching (on TV gasp!!) certain teams. Teams quit.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Good luck ATX...already have a decent sized play on the Clev under as well.
I read Ned's write-up.
excellent job as usual.
always tough to take a Suns under, but I don't think the Cavs want to play anything but a half court game as much as possible.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

SA team total over 98.5 for .5%
Spurs have averaged about 102 over their last 5 games, and it didn't get much 'worse' before that. I don't see anything from those FG%'s to suggest anything different tonight vs a Laker team giving up very similar chunks defensively.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Wow, that's the biggest bet I've seen you post. And it looks like a winner as they are +13 this half.:thumbsup
figured it was 65-70%.

drunk as shit, playing really good poker, barely checked the 2h odds.

had to know if I still 'had it', been waiting for something really good and really consistent.
 
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