NBA for opening week

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

figured it was 65-70%.

drunk as shit, playing really good poker, barely checked the 2h odds.

had to know if I still 'had it', been waiting for something really good and really consistent.
I hope the cards are going as good as the hoops.:cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I hope the cards are going as good as the hoops.:cheers
not yet.

but....

hero: AdKd small blind

big blind: AsAh

cutoff: KsKh

flop....KcJdQd

you know I'm gonna check and just hope they get it all in for me, I've been waiting for this for a week. I know my flush is gonna hit, and I know nobody is folding.

bb bets pot

co raises all in

I hesitate to keep to make SURE that bb calls.

my royal hits on the turn....

biggest hand I'll have for a while, about the size of the last Phoenix under I'll ever take.:cocktail

sports is easy, cards is way harder.

anyways Milwaukee +4.5 for .8%
ML +170 for .2%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

gdamn, I hate sitting here waiting for 2nd halves.

the nba is unbettable now, except that I've been around long enough to change persepective. fade the public or dont do much at all. 2nd halves especially. until close to the playoffs.

Orlando/Wash 2h under
the number determines the amt.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Orlando/Wash 2h under 102/101.5 for .8%
not that great but 2.5 pts off.

chicago should win SU by 4-6 but I'm not risking more on it since I have it FG.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

the weather sucks here, was going to go to the beach with some jet skis. grew up on the beach, but this fing cold rain shit ruined my world. I have to work out again drinking every night. I'm good sober, but wasted I'm at my best. Just can't do that anymore. or not too much, I don't make too many bad decisions just BIG decisions after some Guiness. When I type I'm generally f'ed up if its after 7pm. earlier shit, I at least have some dignity. so for right now going forward until the playoffs, I am looking to FADE all line moves. I don't think half of them are real this time of year, if they are they are getting crushed just about every year.

2h Indi over 102 for 1.3%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

switching gears again.

2nd halves a lot bigger.

this time of year I need to post more thoughts, exact times of year are important, I think with that 3.0% my subconscious is trying to dictate, I hate giving away too much but this is a LOT about not making the same mistakes over and over again, that's an AUTO+1%.

NY 2h over big.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

not yet.

but....

hero: AdKd small blind

big blind: AsAh

cutoff: KsKh

flop....KcJdQd

you know I'm gonna check and just hope they get it all in for me, I've been waiting for this for a week. I know my flush is gonna hit, and I know nobody is folding.

bb bets pot

co raises all in

I hesitate to keep to make SURE that bb calls.

my royal hits on the turn....

biggest hand I'll have for a while, about the size of the last Phoenix under I'll ever take.:cocktail

sports is easy, cards is way harder.

anyways Milwaukee +4.5 for .8%
ML +170 for .2%
I don't play, but you make cards sound more exciting than sports.:+textinb3GL the rest of the night, I wish you didn't love GS, I got dal PK. We match up quite a bit, which makes me feel like I'm on the right side quite a bit.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Guessing you like GS more than POR?
yeah, went 2.5% on GS +2.5, guess I forgot to post the amount. poker is very similar to the sports market... overlay, arbitrage, find fish, switch gears, disguise is paramount.

Memphis over 188 for 1.1%
waiting for possible 187 but 188 +100 better than 187.5
have it 190 min plus 3rd in 4 for both.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Hate to lose you to poker, ATX, but whatever pays the bills, right?:cheers

it's a lot harder to play perfect poker thinking about sports at the same time. I doubt I'll ever completely depart the sports market, but I usually take more frequent breaks during baseball.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Houston over 180.5 for 1.1%
same at 181, I'm thinking Yao being out helps the over

Houston +6 for .6%
ML +240 for .2%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I'll take this every night. only mistake was taking 2h under instead of 4th q, passed on SA 2h under as it conflicted with my favorite angle. the 2 losses were by 3 points, in these injury games the spread and/or total often seems to land very close...

Dallas last went under this total at home the day after New Years. Dallas upset after two straight losses and favored by less than a touchdown. I like both and it's been a while since I plugged in a correlated parlay but I do well with them. I look at 2 things: what are the projected odds both hit? and is it minimizing risk? it's definitely minimizing risk. I like both for over 1.3% apiece. Sure, they could split. It's just that the overlay is greater (IMO) on the parlay than on the two separate bets. looks like trash nba is upon us.

parlay of Dallas -5.5 to over 188.5 for 1.1%
5's out there, and the worst I would go would be -6 to 190.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

Good luck ATX...have an offer in for Cle under but likely other side on Dal and over depending on where the numbers are going. Not good for me.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Golden State -2 -120 for 1.5%
LAC have won two in a row 3 different times all year. I discounted this b/c of all the injuries and b/c I have a feeling the Clippers might try to win this one.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

I was eying that one as well but can't bring myself to pull the trigger with Crawford and Jackson both out.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I was eying that one as well but can't bring myself to pull the trigger with Crawford and Jackson both out.
understandable, but in the majority of the Clippers' games this year their whole team has been 'out.' I think this game closes at 3 or more.

Los Angeles Clippers Injuries​


F
Zach Randolph
personal
Probable
missed last 2 games, is probably improbable Tuesday vs Golden State, but wont matter.


Players listed as OUT
03/17
G
Mardy Collins
plantar fasciitis
OUT
missed last 2 games, is OUT Tuesday vs Golden State, OUT of the closet.


03/06
G
Ricky Davis
knee
OUT
is out indefinitely, on tour with 'NSync.

Golden State Warriors Injuries​


G
Jamal Crawford
rest
OUT
ran a bunch of errands, forgot to set his alarm and is OUT Tuesday vs LA Clippers and Thursday vs LA Lakers.


03/17
GF
Stephen Jackson
suspended
OUT
has been suspended for 1-game for going over the limit of technical fouls for the season, coincidentally served on St. Patrick's Day.


03/16
FC
Andris Biedrins
ankle
OUT
is expected to miss 1 week while we try to figure out who he is.


Players listed as Probable
03/17
G
Marco Belinelli
toe
Probable
is probable Tuesday vs LA Clippers.​



I think I see what you are seeing with Detroit. I probably don't give the Pistons as much credit for their recent performance. I feel that the two OT's followed by a home loss to Memphis has them cycling downward against a Dallas team with 2 consec losses.

kinda slim pickens with the rest of these games
 
Re: NBA for opening week

if you read my inserts to the injury report you will get my impression of the NBA today...a bunch of crap. I'm tired of trying to figure out how many Washington and Sacramento lose by. It's time to go get hammered, if you have the chance this is a great week to be in Austin.

Philadelphia +9.5 for .9%
ML +475 for .2%
should be 10's at some point.

I think one would be good with Dal -5.5, GS -3, Cleve u193 and Phi+9.5
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks, ATX. I appreciated the humor although I did not comment. GL tonight, I'm with you on Phi and GS at least.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

hope everyone is having a decent St Pats. Duncan is out. Spurs are in. I liked this at -11 but instinct said wait. I'm probably going to get screwed on the Det injury. I don't like having opposite of teams with a medium-large injury in game 1. Getting wasted and looking for something big again.

Spurs over 189 for 1.3%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I can't make much of a case for either 2h w/ Cavs/Atl. I really think the Cavs go under in the 2h, but the closing number f'ed me on the full game. I would have been fine if it had just stayed 193, but seriously it's really bad to have a really good number after a big move. This one is it...

Spurs over 189 for a total of 3.3%
 
Top