NBA for opening week

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

thanks.

I really think that the only luck is bad luck, lol. If I win it was supposed to happen. If I lose it was bad luck. :cocktail
(overs and favorites that hit b/c of OT, easily good luck IMO)

2h Miami over 92 for .4%
I have another take on that. You already won the bet when you have a dog that goes OT, and now you have to win another 5 minute game to get paid. It does really hurt, but if it was easy, everybody would be doing it. GL today, ATX.:cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I have another take on that. You already won the bet when you have a dog that goes OT, and now you have to win another 5 minute game to get paid. It does really hurt, but if it was easy, everybody would be doing it. GL today, ATX.:cheers
yeah, I usually grade OT games as pk and the total as whatever game landed on at end of 4th. I had Miami/Det as a pk, and will be a little unhappy if I'm proven right...
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Houston and SA are somewhat notorious for going under vs. in the 2h. SA has been in somewhat of a scoring slump. Teams combined for 98 on a total of 177. I liked the over full game but too much conflicting info for a 2h over. I do think the 2h should be 90, but pass. Can't do anything with +3 on the half b/c I took that on the full game. I thought Rox might win about 45% of the time and would land +1, +2, or +3 enough to bring it about 55-56%. I play 2nd halves a lot more to full game lines at the end of the year. Early in the year I tend to put more emphasis on what actually happened in the first half, but this late team tendencies seem a better predictor. Staying far away from the Clippers, if I'm not sure I'm staying away, until the game is over my full game total is doomed, last thing I want to do is play an LAC 2h. Add Minnesota to that list. Obviously this team is done. Once I say that then they run off 10 w's in a row b/c some coach's speech or something. So add that team to the list that I can't play or fade unless I'm sure I've got +58%. Milwaukee, LAC, Toronto, MIN, Wash, GS, Memphis, NJ, and a close eye on Indiana and NY. I like consistent effort from OKC, Miami, and obviously Portland and a lot of times they are getting too many points.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

yeah, this time of year in the NBA is a different animal. I've given a lot back in the final month of the NBA regular season in previous years, a couple years ago I found an approach for the last 15-20 games that does OK to great. I don't think home dogs are usually as good esp. with the trash teams. In fact I avoid trash teams unless I have at least 58% on the situation. I am looking harder at 2nd halves this time of year, and I know you guys play a lot of 2nd half sides, this year I've done more with 2h totals. I think this time of year the 2nd halves tend to migrate more toward the full game lines than at earlier points in the season.

I've spent a couple of hours on Port/Phi and so much conflicting info I must pass until the 2h. I'm leaning to Chi/Wash under, but I think the 2h there will hold more value. This is a real mess today, just a bunch of BS. I like the Boston/LAC game to go under but I think the 2nd half is a better option (don't like the pin lean either). I think I'm going to take NY, but might get 7, and don't like it for much.

**Lean Port as a side in 2h
Lean Port under 2h

**Lean Boston under 2h

oh and just noticed all the games are bunched up today, wow I'm having one fantastic day so far. I think I'll just stop right there for now. pissed off about nothing, time for a bloody mary.
 
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Re: NBA for opening week

Shit, I like the over in BOS/lac.:devil:
I'm probably passing on the full game under, will look for the situation to take the 2h under or 4th q under. Boston shot 56% last game so that is generally about a 54% to the under to begin with. But there are some other factors that conflict and that factor is the Clippers. They have had 2 days off in their last 7 games and that usually points to the over (but factored into the total). Tough to guage what the Clippers will score, last night they managed only 2 offensive rebounds, shot 38% from the floor, 15 turnovers, only 63% from the FT line. Shows a lack of effort to me.

Boston 1st half -8.5 for .7%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Not sure where to start.

I did well enough the past 2 years betting sports to be able to move out to LV and give this a fulltime, year round shot. In 9 months of being here, everything has went about as well as planned.

In the past few years nothing has been as hard and has thrown me for a bigger loop then this NBA season and trying to beat NBA sides.

I have lost a ton of money and confidence along the way betting them. They have single handley ruined what has been a still pretty good run here for me doing this.

I was finally ready to pack it up with the NBA sides market until I came upon this thread this past week. It blew me away. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't read it all myself. I wrote over 4 pages of notes in my notebook, of your thoughts and opinions inside this thread (and yes I read all 25 pages, slowly).

Since moving to Vegas my methodology has unexpectedly changed from doing only Pinny lean, bet stale numbers, type stuff to now developing very simple math models and winning with that in certain areas.

Deep down it's all about the numbers but it's way more then that with the NBA because almost everyone that follows the sport has an idea what the number is suppose to be. Good luck finding an edge that way.

Bottom line, you aren't going to "out-math" the NBA by crunching seasonal numbers. I always felt there were others ways to look at betting it but I never really attempted it myself.

My biggest fear with betting sports nowadays is that the computer geeks are going to take over with all this very soon and leave us all in the dust. I was 100% convinced that no one was winning without a complex math model or betting into soft numbers (both approaches I have taken).

Anyways I just wanted to stop in and say thanks. It's nice seeing someone go there own way with this. It's threads like this why I tell people to follow others to learn, not for the poster's picks but for his thoughts and ideas.

I wrote you a long private message (sorry) basically saying the same stuff. Just disregard it. Hopefully I can throw a question out to you from time to time. I am fascinated with eveything you have said in this thread. Keep up the excellent work, it is greatley appreciated!!
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Not sure where to start.

I did well enough the past 2 years betting sports to be able to move out to LV and give this a fulltime, year round shot. In 9 months of being here, everything has went about as well as planned.

In the past few years nothing has been as hard and has thrown me for a bigger loop then this NBA season and trying to beat NBA sides.

I have lost a ton of money and confidence along the way betting them. They have single handley ruined what has been a still pretty good run here for me doing this.

I was finally ready to pack it up with the NBA sides market until I came upon this thread this past week. It blew me away. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't read it all myself. I wrote over 4 pages of notes in my notebook, of your thoughts and opinions inside this thread (and yes I read all 25 pages, slowly).

Since moving to Vegas my methodology has unexpectedly changed from doing only Pinny lean, bet stale numbers, type stuff to now developing very simple math models and winning with that in certain areas.

Deep down it's all about the numbers but it's way more then that with the NBA because almost everyone that follows the sport has an idea what the number is suppose to be. Good luck finding an edge that way.

Bottom line, you aren't going to "out-math" the NBA by crunching seasonal numbers. I always felt there were others ways to look at betting it but I never really attempted it myself.

My biggest fear with betting sports nowadays is that the computer geeks are going to take over with all this very soon and leave us all in the dust. I was 100% convinced that no one was winning without a complex math model or betting into soft numbers (both approaches I have taken).

Anyways I just wanted to stop in and say thanks. It's nice seeing someone go there own way with this. It's threads like this why I tell people to follow others to learn, not for the poster's picks but for his thoughts and ideas.

I wrote you a long private message (sorry) basically saying the same stuff. Just disregard it. Hopefully I can throw a question out to you from time to time. I am fascinated with eveything you have said in this thread. Keep up the excellent work, it is greatley appreciated!!
whoa! read about 1/4 of it and had to stop. will respond later.
it's very tough to make money this late in the nba (if you are me, lol). since I concentrate on dogs, I've got to focus on these 2nd halves. I am planning to add Denver as a pick. I'm planning on putting about half of my under 237 on over 236,235 whatever and putting less than 1.1% on Denver. it's an angle that has hit very well recently, too well. so have to discount.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I don't make much sense, but dogs don't hit as well this late in the year. overall, maybe. what I use/look at...not even close. switching gears yet, again.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

obvious the books are playing to their numbers on 2nd halves...

2h ATL under 50.5 4th q for .4%
if you don't have u195 for full game .7% on u101 2h it's going to go fast..
 
Re: NBA for opening week

have to reverse engineer this later but books had a bead on Atlanta going over. Pinnacle holding its 2h line at 101 to -125 etc. such a long memory such a short attention span...I should be looking to fade line moves...sheesh.

just waiting on 4 and 235 on Denver. Portland is the right side, but I have this suspicion that a better number will be out there at the half (close game). Cycling out losers, while trying to make money. just a quagmire, reminder to look long term.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

f'it. I'm standing my ground. holding on to under 237. I think Denver wins SU. Phx competition lately horrid. I see this closer to any of nuggets other road games as far as the total. on the spread...I'm hoping for different, both teams shot over 55% last game and beyond.

Denver +4 for .8%
ML +160 for .2%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Portland -7.5 for .8%
Blazers have lost by more than the number that would close if they don't cover this only a couple times all year. Phi shooting lights out still...not deviating from plan
 
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Denver over 115 for .4%
just dumping some off. not sure why it's not 118 or more, they really like their number I guess. no idea why they want over action, hopefully that is good for me on the full game. Denver should win this game but not putting more on them.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

GL tonight X, to see Iceman post in this thread says a lot about you and your ability. I followed him across the street (his move to LV) until shithead thought I was stepping on his ego and banned me. Anyway, kudos to you and I wish you noting but, " I expected that to happen".
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Not sure where to start.

I did well enough the past 2 years betting sports to be able to move out to LV and give this a fulltime, year round shot. In 9 months of being here, everything has went about as well as planned.

In the past few years nothing has been as hard and has thrown me for a bigger loop then this NBA season and trying to beat NBA sides.

I have lost a ton of money and confidence along the way betting them. They have single handley ruined what has been a still pretty good run here for me doing this.

I was finally ready to pack it up with the NBA sides market until I came upon this thread this past week. It blew me away. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't read it all myself. I wrote over 4 pages of notes in my notebook, of your thoughts and opinions inside this thread (and yes I read all 25 pages, slowly).

Since moving to Vegas my methodology has unexpectedly changed from doing only Pinny lean, bet stale numbers, type stuff to now developing very simple math models and winning with that in certain areas.

Deep down it's all about the numbers but it's way more then that with the NBA because almost everyone that follows the sport has an idea what the number is suppose to be. Good luck finding an edge that way.

Bottom line, you aren't going to "out-math" the NBA by crunching seasonal numbers. I always felt there were others ways to look at betting it but I never really attempted it myself.

My biggest fear with betting sports nowadays is that the computer geeks are going to take over with all this very soon and leave us all in the dust. I was 100% convinced that no one was winning without a complex math model or betting into soft numbers (both approaches I have taken).

Anyways I just wanted to stop in and say thanks. It's nice seeing someone go there own way with this. It's threads like this why I tell people to follow others to learn, not for the poster's picks but for his thoughts and ideas.

I wrote you a long private message (sorry) basically saying the same stuff. Just disregard it. Hopefully I can throw a question out to you from time to time. I am fascinated with eveything you have said in this thread. Keep up the excellent work, it is greatley appreciated!!
I don't use a math model at all. I've never even busted out a pen or pencil. I look at a lot of things for each game and I don't usually come up with a number. I just choose what I conclude is the 'right side' and I adjust the amount I put on it according to how 'right' or how 'off' I feel the number is. I have angles that work and I incorporate that into several other things and just today for maybe the first time ever in 10 years I think I somewhat know how everything is somewhat weighted. I give a lot away, but I don't give everything away...I don't think every single person out there would be able to do something with my system of sorts, but there are those that could easily disrupt 'my' market. And that's another thing...what I look at is just one subset of what works. There are those out there that do maybe something opposite in that what I pass on they are stalking.

In the NBA the numbers are mostly arbitrary. They aren't close. Average of 8 points off, side and total. So coming up with exact numbers is not the end-all. The NBA is like taming a tiger. You may have known this tiger as a cub, but it's still very much wild. Just when you think you have the tiger tamed, you realize you actually have a tiger by the tail and that is NOT a pleasant evening. So 'how I am doing' also goes into this quite a bit. If I'm hitting a high percentage over a few days...'watch out.' My whole system is designed for about 15-20% return on every sport every season, regular season. If I get too high, I usually plan for recession. I haven't had too many really bad streaks since about a year ago. I think this is the longest I've ever gone. But to me it's all about the big picture. I really like the NBA b/c there are so many games, but I beat baseball, and destroy football so the psychology is most important. From time to time I have to take breaks, pace myself, never get too high never get too low. I'm exhausted right now, can't remember a night that was so convoluted so I can't coherently post much. But feel free to chime in. I welcome discussion. You know how you say you read this and made some notes. Well it sounds really strange, but I read myself too. For whatever reason I guess my brain is not all the way connected so I learn about myself from writing. A lot of this is instinct and when I say I finally think I know what my system is, I just look at a lot of things and come to a conculsion, type that number as far as a percentage to bet, and if that number looks off I adjust it. For example I thought that 1.5% on the ATL under was a little aggressive since I had it more like 194-195, but I just said f' it and figured I could find enough arb to come out ahead regardless. I ended up making about .35% tonight. It's not the victory I hoped for, but I'll take it any and every night.

The computer geeks will never take over. The books use things other than math for the lines. We don't have to really make lines at all. We just have to choose the right sides. It sounds a little silly, but that that is the bottom line. I'm always in favor of further educating my guesses and I welcome you into discussion. Cheers!
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

f'it. I'm standing my ground. holding on to under 237. I think Denver wins SU. Phx competition lately horrid. I see this closer to any of nuggets other road games as far as the total. on the spread...I'm hoping for different, both teams shot over 55% last game and beyond.

Denver +4 for .8%
ML +160 for .2%
If you could divulge, what was the angle that had Denver? The line moved consistently against them until I saw 4.5 before tip, and that line movement can get me off my ass. I was looking for 5 which never happened. Also, was wondering why 55% shooting is such a barometer for you and whether it indicates anything other than a possible under on the horizon. TY.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

If you could divulge, what was the angle that had Denver? The line moved consistently against them until I saw 4.5 before tip, and that line movement can get me off my ass. I was looking for 5 which never happened. Also, was wondering why 55% shooting is such a barometer for you and whether it indicates anything other than a possible under on the horizon. TY.
Denver: team with better record as a dog on the moneyline. ( I typically put about 30% on ml) I posted a little in the Tech forum about it. a lot of stuff in there I just post a little about then when/if I have a chance will update.
Houston and Detroit qualify today.

55%: team that shoots 55% or more in their last game fails to cover at a fairly high percentage. used that for years. the under is secondary and haven't tracked it as much on this angle.

Detroit over 191
Lakers under
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Sorry, I should have remembered that conversation we had in the Tech room. So, tonight we have Detroit and Houston fitting this criteria, short any other factors. No one shot 55% last night. Thanks for repeating the info. I would like to add as many of these nuggets to be considered as possible. I love little angles like this.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Sorry, I should have remembered that conversation we had in the Tech room. So, tonight we have Detroit and Houston fitting this criteria, short any other factors. No one shot 55% last night. Thanks for repeating the info. I would like to add as many of these nuggets to be considered as possible. I love little angles like this.
I think Detroit is a higher percentage than Houston fwiw.
and have the Lakers total around 200, far enough off that I'm slightly worried that I'm missing something (but public is on the over...)
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

That's interesting because I saw that Houston had won 5 in a row, and had the greater disparity in record, so I thought they would be a stronger pick.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

That's interesting because I saw that Houston had won 5 in a row, and had the greater disparity in record, so I thought they would be a stronger pick.
home court for Utah is very strong. I think getting 6 is important (should get there). not sure I'm betting Houston for sure, we have a while...

also from what I'm getting, a higher percentage of the public is on Chicago.

numbers: I would put Detroit closer to +3 than +4, Rip probably out hurts, but Bulls on B2B and 3rd in 4. I have Houston closer to +5 than +4. I don't like taking dogs that are -5.5, 5' is often a number the books sit on when they think the favorite is the right side. (4.5 is for dogs).
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Detroit over 191 for 1.1%
strange that SIA and eHorse have 190.5, would think their public would be on the over.
possible to go down, amount wont change even at 190, 191 o+100's out there.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks for taking the time out of your busy day to answer thoughtfully, I appreciate it.

I just liked how you came out the confidently 1st week of the year and said you will figure this whole market out. It was refreshing for me to see someone actually win without some magical math model.

I like to keep a "gambling" notebook of people's different thoughts and ideas on how to approach this. This is how I learn. Been doing it for years. I was able to gain a lot of good info from this thread. Nothing in particular or something most could ever duplicate. Just like the overall approach of working hard to win.
 
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