NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

Played the under also in the Laker game, I made the number 201.

A few times in here you talk about the public being on a side, do you base this information off of reading certain books and how they are leaning or do you actually go to those sites with the percentages of who the public likes and use that info? Thanks and good luck tonight!!
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks for taking the time out of your busy day to answer thoughtfully, I appreciate it.

I just liked how you came out the confidently 1st week of the year and said you will figure this whole market out. It was refreshing for me to see someone actually win without some magical math model.

I like to keep a "gambling" notebook of people's different thoughts and ideas on how to approach this. This is how I learn. Been doing it for years. I was able to gain a lot of good info from this thread. Nothing in particular or something most could ever duplicate. Just like the overall approach of working hard to win.
you might want to go to ogd and ck out NCAA football and NFL threads. I was nervous to begin NBA after such a very good football season (hence the rant). there used to be years' worth of posts at the rx, after I got banned not sure if they deleted them. a lot of stuff about money management, market concepts, and psychology spread out between ogd and rx. most of it is kind of like strings of data, I'm not a good writer and a lot of stuff is nearly incoherent. makes for interesting discussion, but I'm usually more elaborate after the last 2h goes off :cocktail

I'm done thinking about the Detroit total. I put 1.1% on it, discounted b/c I figured something was up. I still have 193-194 with the parameter stretching over more than under. Just a footnote for later, for RE reverse engineering later. My guess is that there is some sort of trend or angle involving the total that Chicago scores. Some sort of 'due' theory involving team tendencies. Maybe it's just RIP announced out. I was 90% sure he wouldn't play with the 193-194. I try not to get to 'attached' to my positions. It's worth 1.1% and move on...I feel like I may be cycling through some losses so I'm being more cautious with the amounts than I was recently. One of the toughest things is going through a losing streak and determining they were mostly 'right' sides. Then you have to re-think a lot of things...is something changing? One thing does not work all the time that's why it's important to have multiple angles, it's NOT just about determining what the 'number' should be, IMO.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

do you ever play pinny leans blindly they have some heavy leans on totals tomorrow
used to use pinny leans a lot more in the past.

I still use them, but I don't play them blindly. Sometimes I use pinny leans on the screen to find games to look at. Find the why is pin inviting action one way or another. I don't put as much weight on overnight lines/moves. I find that a lot of times those overnight moves are a knee-jerk to a game that just ended. But all of this is relative, at different points in the season I put more weight on moves, especially the ones from 10am-11. This late in the season I am looking to fade moves more often than not, but I put a lot more weight in what I think the number should be and trust that.

Lakers under 206 or better for 1.5%
it may go up as the public is more very big on the over.
I think it comes down.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Played the under also in the Laker game, I made the number 201.

A few times in here you talk about the public being on a side, do you base this information off of reading certain books and how they are leaning or do you actually go to those sites with the percentages of who the public likes and use that info? Thanks and good luck tonight!!
I had 201 as being the high side of the total, would have maybe put a little on 201. a lot can go wrong with Lakers unders and they haven't gone off in a while...I don't think OKC matches up well with them. Not that I've ever seen them play, but...discounted for uncertainty I guess. (still my best bet)

as far as the public...I have a lot of different sources. I know about most of the online versions, but I get info from bookmakers as well. No, I don't call up Spiro and I'm not on Henry's IM list, but I ask some guys who their 'stars' are on and it's usually similar. books have different 'publics' but SIA and Bodog lines are also very good indicators. I've been watching BetPhoenix's lines, and I think it's Fernando from the old book Hollywood there, and it looks like they are taking stands on 'right' sides.

looks like LAu207 is at enough places.

putting an add'l .4% on Detroit over 188

at 188 it's worth 1.5%
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

Always a good read in this thread. Not on the other side of any which is a relief...with ya on Stones and over. Waiting for 207 before I'll go in on the LA under.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

How about the Spurs if Duncan doesn't play? They were 10 and I just grabbed -7 at Jazzsports.
I bet Houston -8 over GS for quite a bit about 3 wks ago?

I like the Spurs -7, GS may have one of those needle in a haystack road wins here, but without Duncan I tend to think the Spurs have the potential to blow GS out (per normal). But I'm passing b/c I'm not sure how SA responds here. That Boston game showed me the Spurs are aging and don't have the ability to close out games. They also didn't look very convincing vs an awful Min team recently (Duncan out). So it looks like the balance of power under LA is shifting. It's still early, but that is why I took LA to win the Finals a week ago. I don't see Portland or Utah being strong enough on the road to beat LA, and hard to see Houston pulling it off either. The NBA head office also wants LA to be in the Finals again, and that trickles down to the games themselves. Vs Cavs, Celts or Maji LA would have home court and be -170 minimum. Possible to be 'offered' at lower than -170 I guess, but -170 would be too low IMO.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

tomorrow I'm on Boston/Orlando under 192 for 1.5%
number will most likely be gone, and should close below 191 I would guess.
 
B

Bruce Dickinson

Guest
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX,

Was on a bit of a tilt yesterday(rare for me) after getting crushed in CBB, never had so many 1 point losses in my life...ended up in your thread for some reason (maybe devine intervention LOL).....anyways ended up parlaying DEN to the UNDER for a big score. Got to reading some of the thread and I dig your style, It is very similar to what I do in CBB/NFL and always been successfull. I avoid NBA like the plague

one question.....how do you do in NBA playoffs?

I have found with CBB MM, it is nearly impossible to win after the first round, so I stay away. I broke that rule this year and paid the price........wheras NFL playoffs are easy pickens IMHO, sharp numbers not withstanding

BOL
 
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX,

Was on a bit of a tilt yesterday(rare for me) after getting crushed in CBB, never had so many 1 point losses in my life...ended up in your thread for some reason (maybe devine intervention LOL).....anyways ended up parlaying DEN to the UNDER for a big score. Got to reading some of the thread and I dig your style, It is very similar to what I do in CBB/NFL and always been successfull. I avoid NBA like the plague

one question.....how do you do in NBA playoffs?

I have found with CBB MM, it is nearly impossible to win after the first round, so I stay away. I broke that rule this year and paid the price........wheras NFL playoffs are easy pickens IMHO

BOL
it's usually my best subset. I usually make over 15%. I often bet more on those games, but average bet is less than 1.5% there. Last year I had an 'off' NBA playoff subset and made a little more than 10%. I can't post everything but I think what I posted went over 7% (took forever to add up). Made quite a bit on Boston over LA. Went cold in the middle. I feel about 15-20% better in the NBA than last year, but that doesn't mean results will follow. Just completely dropped NCAA baskets this year. I felt like in the long run it would it would pay off. It's exhausting trying to follow 100+ teams in the NCAA. Plus I really want to blow the NBA playoffs out of the water this year. Focused hard similarly on NCAA football last year and got the result. I may take a break(s) between now and then b/c things change drastically from the very end of the NBA season to the playoffs. Plus that zigzag BS drives me nuts. I hear ya about the NFL. Very easy. My record this year was pretty sick and I only spent about 3 hours a week on it.

Houston +6/6.5 for .8%
putting .2% on ML, hoping for +225
 

pokerjoe

EOG Senior Member
Re: NBA for opening week

You know, I pretty much never post anywhere except MW, but I had to register here to say how much I like your style, ATX. I only bet my own plays, but there's a lot more here than picks. Epic thread, imo.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Good sign I am seeing things better of late as I also thought Philly under looked like the obvious right side and played it late last night before I went to bed.

With NBA sides, does it bother you if the line goes the other way and your stuck with a crappy number compared to the closing line? Like if you play Orlando -3.5 and it closes Orlando -2.5? Do you worry about if you are beating the closing line or does this not concern you at all? Thanks as always!!
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Good question, Iceman. It drives me batty when that happens. I know Tim Patterson hates being on the wrong side of a line move, too, from conversations we've had.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

tomorrow I'm on Boston/Orlando under 192 for 1.5%
number will most likely be gone, and should close below 191 I would guess.

good questions. I will get to them later (can't get too sidetracked with so many games). I'm a little behind. questions benefit me, benefit everyone. helps to see alternative viewpoints

Utah 1.1%
Mil .8%
Wash maybe
Wash over less than maybe
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Good question, Iceman. It drives me batty when that happens. I know Tim Patterson hates being on the wrong side of a line move, too, from conversations we've had.
Curious how important ATX feels this is. Obviously everyone wants to bet numbers at their apex.

With NBA totals, I feel if you are beating closing lines you are probably seeing a lot of the same obvious mistakes that most other winning players are seeing (I could be wrong just an observation). But with tighter markets like NBA sides, where there is not nearly the line moves, does he worry about the market and what it is saying?

I concerned myself all day with how my bet looked compared to the closing line and paid dearly this NBA season for it. I get a sudden high if I look and my bet from earlier moves my way and I feel like crap if it goes the other way and I am stuck with a bad number. Not sure if I worry too much about this. I feel like I am seeing things wrong if the market doesn't agree with me.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

LAC +6.5 parlayed to over 216 for .6%
NY is a team they can beat and should get into 220's more often than not
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Curious how important ATX feels this is. Obviously everyone wants to bet numbers at their apex.

With NBA totals, I feel if you are beating closing lines you are probably seeing a lot of the same obvious mistakes that most other winning players are seeing (I could be wrong just an observation). But with tighter markets like NBA sides, where there is not nearly the line moves, does he worry about the market and what it is saying?

I concerned myself all day with how my bet looked compared to the closing line and paid dearly this NBA season for it. I get a sudden high if I look and my bet from earlier moves my way and I feel like crap if it goes the other way and I am stuck with a bad number. Not sure if I worry too much about this. I feel like I am seeing things wrong if the market doesn't agree with me.
I agree with what you said on totals, but I try not to get too involved in checking lines that I've already bet. I watch them closely BEFORE I bet, but simply keep an eye on them after. There's nothing you can do about it. The one exception is if I've paid very little juice. Then there's a chance I can take both sides at the original number and increase my point basis by playing for a side.

Example, I bet team A at -3 for one unit. The line moves to 2, but I still can grab a rogue 3. I'll play team B +3 and team A -2 for two units each. Now I have a chance to hit a side and I win instead of push if team A wins by 3. I've effectively made the line -1.5 because if team A (my original bet) wins by 3, I push two bets and win the team A -2 play. If team A wins by 2, I lose one unit, win two units on team B +3, and push the team A -2 play.

I'll only do this if I get reduced juice at some point in the proceedings. If not, I'm paying way too much juice to buy that 1-1/2 points. I hope that makes sense, and if I haven't explained it properly, let me know. It's easier to execute than it is to explain here.:+textinb3
 
Re: NBA for opening week

thoughts on Denver/New Orleans?
I really really like the under 196. Denver has put up some big scores recently but look who they have played...I have this one quite a bit different (192ish) Something just doesn't feel right, probably b/c I took the NO/GS under last time out for a big score, I'm wary of going to the well too often....New Orleans has gone over this at home 6 or 7 times all year and Denver tends to play 'over' teams over and 'under' teams...under 196 for sure. @Por,@Utah ....F it

Denver/NO under 196 for 2.2%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I may be laying some off of Phi u201. It's not that I don't think it's the right side it's a combination of 2 things...I like Den/NO under more and from what I'm getting the public is on both these unders so far...
 
Re: NBA for opening week

thoughts on Denver/New Orleans?
I really really like the under 196. Denver has put up some big scores recently but look who they have played...I have this one quite a bit different (192ish) Something just doesn't feel right, probably b/c I took the NO/GS under last time out for a big score, I'm wary of going to the well too often....New Orleans has gone over this at home 6 or 7 times all year and Denver tends to play 'over' teams over and 'under' teams...under 196 for sure. @Por,@Utah ....F it

Denver/NO under 196 for 2.2%

I use 2 different ways to make totals and both came out 195.5, so don't have a feel either way.

Been looking at Boston/Orlando game, wonder if public will be all over Celtics in a dog spot. Kind of surpised the line isn't a tad lower around -2/-2.5 or so.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I use 2 different ways to make totals and both came out 195.5, so don't have a feel either way.

Been looking at Boston/Orlando game, wonder if public will be all over Celtics in a dog spot. Kind of surpised the line isn't a tad lower around -2/-2.5 or so.
yeah, I'm fairly sure the public is and will be on Boston. I'm looking at it now, again, for the 4th time and I can't see laying 3.5 on Orlando. Boston at nearly full strength with revenge, Orlando has struggled against good teams in the past.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

took a long time today, freaking tired.

laying off about .5% on PHI over hopefully 200 or less.
MIL .8% best avail
SA .8-1.1% hopefully at 7, (public play but I will take SA as big dogs until they start losing as big dogs)
Jazz 1.1%

probably Boston.
maybe Wash
maybe Min
 
Re: NBA for opening week

yeah, I'm fairly sure the public is and will be on Boston. I'm looking at it now, again, for the 4th time and I can't see laying 3.5 on Orlando. Boston at nearly full strength with revenge, Orlando has struggled against good teams in the past.
Yeah I don't see anything there either with this game. You can get Boston +4 -110 at Pinny right now, has to have hit it's peak i would think, probably pass on my end.

Have a feeling I am the only one but starting to like Indiana at pickem.

Good luck tonight!!
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Yeah I don't see anything there either with this game. You can get Boston +4 -110 at Pinny right now, has to have hit it's peak i would think, probably pass on my end.

Have a feeling I am the only one but starting to like Indiana at pickem.

Good luck tonight!!
Indiana has/had a strong home court. I decided to pass. lean to the over as well.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

You know, I pretty much never post anywhere except MW, but I had to register here to say how much I like your style, ATX. I only bet my own plays, but there's a lot more here than picks. Epic thread, imo.
I think I've seen you at MW. We'll have to talk poker sometime. I don't post at MW b/c I was warned a long time ago...Clevfan was going nut-so with the posting of private information...

and I concur. This isn't so much a 'follow-me' thread. I'm very difficult to follow anyways. I benefit (and others will too) from questions. Sometimes I overlook things and I'm always trying to find alternative viewpoints. drawing blanks on writing today, been looking at numbers since 7am, mind is mush.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Boston/Orlando under 192 for 1.5%
Minnesota/PHI under 201 for 1.8%
Minnesota/PHI over @200 for .5% (should get there and maybe less, if not 200.5, I think PHI comes out flat, they have a long string of high shooting %'s, a bit troubled by the 4th q surges of Minn lately, plus with a 10pt spread would seem more likely for PHI to lead sizably then go under in the 2h. I like MIN to cover (fade PHI as fave angle) and possibly win, so something is wrong somewhere, must discount.
LAC +6.5 parlayed to over 216 for .6% (here I go with LAC again, but this is solid)
Denver/NO under 196 for 2.2% (trap?, hope not, recent meetings override)
Wash/Cha over 191 for .8% discounted b/c big ???'s with Wiz but should hit 200.

MIL +4 (4.5 projected maybe +5) for .8% 'better record angle', as long as Mil hasn't quit...no reason for Toronto to be laying much of anything, went over TOR's HC vs Cha.
ML +160 for .2%

SA .8-1.1% hopefully at 7, (public play but I will take SA as big dogs until they start losing as big dogs)
Jazz +3 for 1.1% not sure if it gets any better, 'better record', Phx is junk, Jazz arguably top 2-3 team in league right now.
Wiz +6 for .7%, Charlotte hasn't established themselves as a good enough road team yet, even vs a team as bad as Washington. discounted b/c tough to guage this team and not sure if the Chicago cover was random or something to possibly build on.

closing number thoughts later...
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Dallas under 225 for .8%
same at 224.

I'm fairly sure Deron is playing for Jazz as well as Duncan for Spurs. But I'm checking their status before doing anything.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

2h Cleve over 94 for 1.1%
same at 94.5
boxscores from their last game, other games, and angle I've used all year
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I show double digit dogs on a 27-13 run in my thread. This seems to go against all logic, as this time of year you would believe the bad teams simply pack it in. Are you seeing anything unusual, even the dregs of the league seem to be in on the act?
 
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