NBA for opening week

ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

I'm passing on Charlotte/Miami. I liked the Bobcats but missed 3.5/4 and I don't like the feeling I get about taking this over. pin 183 -105, oly 183.5, bodog 184, sia 183 ??? The number isn't really off IMO and I'm not going to bet something just b/c I think I know what will happen WITHOUT the number being off. very hesitant to lay points with bobcats even against a road midget like the Heat.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Right it seem this game has desperation written all over it for the Hornets but value is probably gone now.

Having a real hard time finding anything today, maybe it is because the in-laws are in town staying with us. Nothing seems to feel right.

Was able to get New Orleans last night at -2.5, so pretty happy about that.

I know this has square written all over it but what about under in the NO/Golden State game?

The total in the Lakers game seems very low for these two teams but every game these two play seems to go under of late and maybe linesmaker has finally caught up to this and there is now value betting over. Just seems like a very low total for a Lakers home game.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Right it seem this game has desperation written all over it for the Hornets but value is probably gone now.

Having a real hard time finding anything today, maybe it is because the in-laws are in town staying with us. Nothing seems to feel right.

Was able to get New Orleans last night at -2.5, so pretty happy about that.

I know this has square written all over it but what about under in the NO/Golden State game?

The total in the Lakers game seems very low for these two teams but every game these two play seems to go under of late and maybe linesmaker has finally caught up to this and there is now value betting over. Just seems like a very low total for a Lakers home game.
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New Orleans and GS have such opposing styles of play it's tough to get a good gauge on the total. I'm taking GS with ML. GS is very good at home and NO is not a great road team, line is off.

Not sure what LA brings today. I was close to taking Lakers -5, but am passing. Not sure what LA has to play for exactly.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Yeah Charlotte really jumps off the page now the more I look at it, really pissed I missed that one.

I am going the other side then you with Boston tonight. Just feel this line has dropped too much (hoping to find a -4 but looking at -4.5 +100 at Matchbook right now). I just think this is good value for an elite team at home. Plus Hawks are content with their #4 seed and I just don't see them needing this game at all, they are locked right in their spot. I know Atlanta is decent but I just don't think they are in the class of Boston for this spread to be down this low in this range, even without Garnett.
 
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Silent1886

EOG Enthusiast
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
New Orleans and GS have such opposing styles of play it's tough to get a good gauge on the total. I'm taking GS with ML. GS is very good at home and NO is not a great road team, line is off.

Not sure what LA brings today. I was close to taking Lakers -5, but am passing. Not sure what LA has to play for exactly.
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Cleveland's at Orlando. They could close the gap by a game. The rest of Cleveland's schedule isn't kind and Lakers own the tiebreaker. Its not inconceivable they wind up with the same record given their schedules.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Silent1886 said:
Cleveland's at Orlando. They could close the gap by a game. The rest of Cleveland's schedule isn't kind and Lakers own the tiebreaker. Its not inconceivable they wind up with the same record given their schedules.
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That is why the spread is over 3. These teams play 10 times Cleveland wins 6 maybe 7 of them...in Orlando. Not from past history, but going forward. It's almost always a good idea to take the better team when they are a dog. Taking the Lakers, Boston, Cavs, Spurs as a dog in most spots is a money making propostion. Orlando was -3.5 vs Boston a few games ago, this line is worse b/c Cavs just lost. They've lost 2 in a row once all year and the 2nd was by one point. Orlando losing to Toronto was a lot bigger than the Cavs loss to Washington. Orlando was at home, and Cavs were looking ahead to THIS game. Last thing Cavs want is to have any doubt about a top seed at the end of the season so they can rest players. Obviously, no one can guarantee what happens tonight but I do have a fairly good assumption of what the percentages are, and elite teams as dogs with the ml is a long term winning situation. I never let sportsbooks tell me who the dog is.

Phoenix under 246.5 for 1.3%
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

I agree 100% with you ATX on Cavs, it's hard enough too just beat them, now you have to beat them by a certain amount points. That isn't easy. Plus throw in the bg fact the Cavs have their full attention on tonight's game with the loss last night. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is setup perfect for the Cavs, IMO.

It seems everytime I get close to liking a side tonight, something stands out against it to stop me from the play. I kind of like the Pacers but scared off Spurs losing a few in a row. Championships team that needs a win, I don't want to play against them cause of that.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Atlanta +6.5 for 1.5%
I doubt this number will be w/a again, but 6 is good enough.
ML +181 for .3%


OKC +5 for 1.1%

Cleveland +4 for 1.2%
ML +155 for .3%

Phoenix under 246.5 for 1.3%

GS +5 for .9%
ML +190 for .2%
might get 6 later and 1.1% on that, 5.5 should be W/A

POKER TIME!
good points guys, I would like to add that I often feel the pressure to win gets to teams like Orlando with a history of being a UTAH against over .500 teams. best of luck whatever you decide and remember with proper money management one day, one week doesn't really matter all that much.
 
diogee

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

Good luck ATX. On the other side of Cle at -3 and with ya on under 246. Good final message...always on to tomorrow.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Wake up ATX, LOL. Handful of maintees games for Saturday.

Feel that NJ getting 8 is way too much against the Bulls. These teams are not this far apart record wise. Maybe 8 if Nets played last night but they are rested. Bulls are tough at home and this game has meaning for them but l think 8 is enough for the Nets, LOL. Total looks a tad high also, IMO.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Silent1886 said:
Cleveland's at Orlando. They could close the gap by a game. The rest of Cleveland's schedule isn't kind and Lakers own the tiebreaker. Its not inconceivable they wind up with the same record given their schedules.
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very nice call.

I took the day off. I haven't even looked at how bad I think yesterday was. did I even win a single game? I've been playing poker since I woke up puking at 8am, finally got 2nd in a 90 man. told myself after the next really bad day I would take a break, jeez that took a long time. maybe tomorrow, I'm trying to learn Omaha in a day, lol. I'm really fucked up right now, and as I've said before this is more of a blog than anything else. really cool people here. I just thought of this and like I said before I'm really f'ed up, but I think this is a generalization of what I'm thinking/how I feel...

With the absence of doubt, FREEDOM is KING!.
ha ha!

I haven't looked at this game, but I'm betting it.

LAC +15 for .6% ML +1700 for .2%
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

sunday:

Minnesota +8 to -120 for 1.1%
might be it. Wolves are showing just enough motivation, Denver is just bad enough of a road team and on a B2B 3in4, I think.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

DrinkinBeer said:
lotta people watching final four ...
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I would hope so...:cheers

just for the people that are not. very lackluster tournament this year, IMO. I can barely watch sports anymore was playing poker and saw the 2h of that orl/cav game. OMG. I felt like I was the dumbest MF on the planet!! :+waving-5 I saw the 2h of OU/NC, it was ok, hard to pull for the Sooners if you are me.

prob taking Mil over 2h. solid angle.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

it's going to be Denver and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.
I don't have too much doubt about that. It would make a lot of sense and make for a very entertaining WC finals.
 
DrinkinBeer

DrinkinBeer

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Thanks for all your picks man. I definitely learn a lot from stuff you have posted.

What do you think about Orlando? They kinda scare me comin outta the east considering I have futures on Cavs +700 and Boston +275 to win it all. I would not be surprised at all to see Orlando coming outta the East. Especially factoring in Garnett's injury.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

can someone show me the Bucks' motivation. Memphis beat the Mavs last night.

Memphis +8 (take +100) for .9%
ML +425 for .3%
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Obviously 2nd half on the above game(you just didnt write it)? I have Memphis game, they been playing like an actual team last few games. Need help on the over though, have a good number at 197.5.

Pissed I didn't fade Atlanta again today. I went back and forth all day on taking Magic versus them and Miami and backed off last second on both. Ruined the whole evening for me.

Hawks are pretty much locked in the 4 seed in the East. They have nothing to play for and I have making a nice mint off of them following this angle lately. They also just cant seem to play with the upper echelon teams but I pussed out and didnt play the Magic today against them. DAMN IT!!

How much did the poker tourney 2nd place win for ya? Congrats!!

You need to get your ass out here to Vegas and clean up on these card players (and sports bettors also). You wold be in heaven here. Come rent yourself a place for the WSOP this summer. Drinks on me first few times out also!!:cheers
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

DrinkinBeer said:
Thanks for all your picks man. I definitely learn a lot from stuff you have posted.

What do you think about Orlando? They kinda scare me comin outta the east considering I have futures on Cavs +700 and Boston +275 to win it all. I would not be surprised at all to see Orlando coming outta the East. Especially factoring in Garnett's injury.
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they served notice. I would still say it's hard to overcome a BOS/CAVS finals. Orlando just doesn't have the ratings etc. If anything I would say the Magic have a chance at overtaking the Celts for the East Finals spot. Too early too tell, but they have a ton of experience. Cavs/ORL two most experienced teams in the East.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Obviously 2nd half on the above game(you just didnt write it)? I have Memphis game, they been playing like an actual team last few games. Need help on the over though, have a good number at 197.5.


How much did the poker tourney 2nd place win for ya? Congrats!!

You need to get your ass out here to Vegas and clean up on these card players (and sports bettors also). You wold be in heaven here. Come rent yourself a place for the WSOP this summer. Drinks on me first few times out also!!:cheers
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your memphis over is good. will fly over in the 2nd. poker tourny was great, took too long of a break and missed AKs and QQ to start the final table otherwise I would have won by a large margin.
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX said:
they served notice. I would still say it's hard to overcome a BOS/CAVS finals. Orlando just doesn't have the ratings etc. If anything I would say the Magic have a chance at overtaking the Celts for the East Finals spot. Too early too tell, but they have a ton of experience. Cavs/ORL two most experienced teams in the East.
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Experience becomes a greater force as the play offs get close and as they progress, I have to believe you look long and hard at the experience factor, as well as, the situational play.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Cleveland almost always comes back after a loss and covers. Been reading a lot how embarassed they have been after their last 2 defeats. Maybe a chance on national TV to get this bad taste out of their mouth.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
Cleveland almost always comes back after a loss and covers. Been reading a lot how embarassed they have been after their last 2 defeats. Maybe a chance on national TV to get this bad taste out of their mouth.
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Got them as a bounceback -6. Also, SA shot 55% last time out. GL.:cheers
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Got them as a bounceback -6. Also, SA shot 55% last time out. GL.:cheers
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I knew the bounceback stat already but nice extra bonus with the Spurs shotting well last, perfect. I also think I may play under, so this helps also. Thanks Munson, good luck today!!
 
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Silent1886

EOG Enthusiast
Re: NBA for opening week

Cavs -5.5
76ers -2.5
Rockets -3.5
Hornets -2.5
Mavs -2.5
Kings -2.5

Small ass home faves all look like they're begging to be hit. On the surface these all seem like great plays. Perhaps you know something I don't.
 
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Iceman

EOG Addicted
Re: NBA for opening week

Silent1886 said:
Cavs -5.5
76ers -2.5
Rockets -3.5
Hornets -2.5
Mavs -2.5
Kings -2.5

Small ass home faves all look like they're begging to be hit. On the surface these all seem like great plays. Perhaps you know something I don't.
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You must be reading my mind. Not sure how suare these plays are but I am on a lot of these also. Seems a few are just a tad short, with better team at home in a must win spot. Throw Ok City into this, I played them earlier also.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Iceman said:
I knew the bounceback stat already but nice extra bonus with the Spurs shotting well last, perfect. I also think I may play under, so this helps also. Thanks Munson, good luck today!!
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CLE worked out pretty well. Don't know how you did on the total.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

in the middle of poker madness, but I'm taking

New Orleans +4.5 for 1.1%
ML +170 for .3%
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Thanks and GL, ATX, in the baskets and the cards.
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learning to multi-table. been going well, almost great. I got a maniac bluffing and then trying to resteal. he raises preflop UTG+1, I'm on the button with KK. I re-raise small, he raises all in, I call. He turns over 9/10os. Flop---9JQ,A,K. didn't get too mad, but that would have been really good if that hand held up. got most of it back with 1010 vs AK a few hands later. had really good cards, might have been able to squeeze some more out of the lemons but it's no good to get drawn out on. one guy hit his straight giving me quads, he didn't have a whole behind him. Another time I raised with 88, he pushes back and I call to make it about 15BB's in the pot. Was figuring fk it, if an AorK doesnt flop I'm good since previously he was shown down with AJ to AK. well a King did hit but so did an 8. I ck he bets the pot, I call..... the 7 of clubs hits on the river to pair the board and give him the nut flush. I bet 25% of the pot he insta moves all-in. he didn't rebuy :blink:

I don't understand why they keep putting Charlotte's and the 76ers totals so low. I was on that for some.

Atlanta -1 for 1.5%
even if the Hawks are content with their seed (which I'm not sure of, haven't watched the news or read anything)...the Bucks have been content to not do much of anything for a while.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Great stories in card games, always. I would imagine you get more adrenaline from that than anything in sports betting since you are the 'player' in that sport. Nice hit on NO last night.
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Great stories in card games, always. I would imagine you get more adrenaline from that than anything in sports betting since you are the 'player' in that sport. Nice hit on NO last night.
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the sports market and poker are very similar. BR mgmnt is a lot easier in poker, the main difference is that with sports you have to wait a while longer for the payout. I think I understand how the poker pros (for the most part) would absolutely suck betting sports. I see it being a lot easier to go from sports to poker than the other way around. still making a few mistakes but not stack-sized, one hand 3 of us each hit a flush on the river with only 3 hearts showing. board was paired, I had straight flush outs before the river, but my 4/5 was an easy fold to 2 all-ins.

Cleveland under 200 for an add'l .3%
 
ATX

ATX

2
Re: NBA for opening week

munson15 said:
Another solid night, congrats ATX.91023i2ndw;l
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yeah, but I bet into a 4th in 5 loser. I don't think they can adjust for that if you know what I mean


hero: SB 10,4 ck'd around so I loose call

flop: 10,10,A

BB: ck

hero: ck

turn:10

hero: ck

BB: bets 1.1 of pot

hero: calls time and finally calls

river: A

hero: bets .80 pot

BB: moves all in

hero: wins showing down quads.

pretty much sums it up. another 5% add-on to poker BR.
 
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