Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

for those of you who think beating the closing number is the right side, for any period of time, i ask, why do so many books offer alternative lines
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Bad example....hardly ever see something like that without injuries or weather....

I am saying that the right side is the ticket that you cash....I have been on those right sides that lose many times....

And if the game falls 4-7, then there are two right sides...
In College Football it happens every week even without injuries, bad opening lines happen everyday in every sport and so many move a ton...........
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

for those of you who think beating the closing number is the right side, for any period of time, i ask, why do so many books offer alternative lines
Huh? The alternate lines are derived from the current market price, with correlated payout odds. If the line moves, so does the alternate line (and all the other derivatives).

In College Football it happens every week even without injuries, bad opening lines happen everyday in every sport and so many move a ton...........
You see college basketball lines move more than this every day. But to even discuss this is to miss the point.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

You're a smart guy, High Times, how can YOU not get what they're saying?

Consistently beat the closers over a very large number of plays and you'll eliminate the house edge and thus give you the edge. Just like with the books, if you've got the edge, you'll win in the long run. The trick is to make enough plays where you've got that edge and can withstand the bad runs. 99.9% of gamblers, if not more, simply don't have the time, patience, and bankroll to take this approach and win without just going out and taking a strong position on a potentially "bad" line now and then. It's still a good thing to keep in mind for the rest of us though.

I know what they are saying

You think I never laid -5 when the game went to -9?

I have made baseball bets where the game moved -60 cents!

Of course it makes you a winner.

But you need to know "Who to bet" before it MOVES.

And for me I love to "get the great openers" and I love to "Have everyone love the other side of my bets too"

That is all I have ever said. You can make good money both ways even if YOUR STATS say beating the openers is the "Best bet"

It isn't and they CAN'T prove it as NOBODY really knows why or what or whose lines are you using for your stats.

Most openers are unbetable any ways so how can you use them?

The StarDust years ago and CRIS, The Greek let only a few bettors bet these openers any ways so how can you use them in your study?

And some closing numbers are inflated because of many reasons.

I once saw an extra game college football game move 13 points! 13 points and the last 7 were only to get something on the dog. That is an IDIOT move by the sports book, but that's the way most of these Las Vegas sport books are run.

So are/is/did they include that game in their stats.

I think these STATS although they may look great. Are really nothing and in NO WAY will it help anyone win because only a few get the GREAT LINES. 12io4j2w90

I would like to think that not many people alive have made as many bets as I have in 30 years. It's a hell of a lot!

And believe me I know VALUE.

Good day
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

And I have seen many, many people like Rainbow claim they could make millions following the info they get.

Amazing they are all broke!

Except a few bookmakers I know that use the 11/10 to their advantage.

But to say I/you/us can make millions with MY INFO is obviously wrong.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I def took Bow's info seriously all year in college foots and it was def in the positive, no doubt about it. He beats the closer on 99% of the picks he posts.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

1 more

last year at the Hilton someone was betting huge amounts on baseball games for a couple days.

Well 1 game was -150 just about every where at books that use a 10 cent line.

The Hilton got a big bet on the dog and ACTUALLY went as low as -110~! Amazing.

Well of course I drove over to the Hilton as fast as I could and layed the -110 for as much as they would take.

I then went to the internet and bet the other side at Pinnacle and they ACTUALLY jumped to -155 right before the started and I got +147.

The point.

-110 was not an opener.

The +147 was never available, but for only a couple minutes and only at 1 book.

The other point.

Neither bet had ANY VALUE until 1 of the books went to -110.

So how does that game fit in your stats?

And I am 100% serious.

The ONLY THING THAT MATTERS is getting the best line/odds. Nothing else matters and this

Don't matter where the game opened or closed I think we all can agree that the only thing that matters is

"What line/odds did you get the bet at" and of course "did it win?"
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I def took Bow's info seriously all year in college foots and it was def in the positive, no doubt about it. He beats the closer on 99% of the picks he posts.
That's awesome. but it does'nt work that way all the time and even Rainbow knows this. Sometimes you can follow the steam

And most of the time you can't.

Again I want all you people win.

I'm just here to rattle their brains a little.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

dude I dunno if anyone ever told you this, but you're the fuckin greatest of all time. You double spaced it and all, great easy read, thanks
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

If you get the best available line on any side at any point in the line's life, you're most likely going to beat the closer - so we can agree that you will win if you always get the best odds. Much easier said than done of course. To me, it's more important to consistently make good bets than to necessarily cash every bet I make. Variance is real and you won't win all the time (doing so would cost you money, anyway). But if you're making bets with the odds in your favor, you're going to come out ahead in the end. Do you think a casino manager has a meltdown if some high roller wins 200k at the roulette table? Of course not. Variance just went against him for a given series of bets, but in the long run there's no way he'll lose booking roulette bets because every bet the house takes on a roulette wheel (excluding promos/bonuses) is +EV for the casino.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

And I have seen many, many people like Rainbow claim they could make millions following the info they get.

Amazing they are all broke!

Except a few bookmakers I know that use the 11/10 to their advantage.

But to say I/you/us can make millions with MY INFO is obviously wrong.
Info is strong if you know where its coming from, thats the whole key... I lost so much money in my life picking on my own, I thought I could win without help, it kept me broke for a many years... I know you know the guy that use to own ASAP SPORTSBOOK, HE'S A LIFETIME winner betting, he knows how to win money betting, but he couldn't win booking, funny but true........
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

If you get the best available line on any side at any point in the line's life, you're most likely going to beat the closer - so we can agree that you will win if you always get the best odds. Much easier said than done of course. To me, it's more important to consistently make good bets than to necessarily cash every bet I make. Variance is real and you won't win all the time (doing so would cost you money, anyway). But if you're making bets with the odds in your favor, you're going to come out ahead in the end. Do you think a casino manager has a meltdown if some high roller wins 200k at the roulette table? Of course not. Variance just went against him for a given series of bets, but in the long run there's no way he'll lose booking roulette bets because every bet the house takes on a roulette wheel (excluding promos/bonuses) is +EV for the casino.

We do agree on most of this.

I'm just saying most people are not going to be able to do that.

And in this game

Oregon + the 3 points looks like a great bet and

Auburn for the Auburn bettors now that they don't have to lay -3 and could lay less then -2 makes that a great bet.

Both sides bets have value, but

Only because the bookmakers of today are IDIOTS for moving their lines around so much. They give away so much value they should:+textinb3 all be embarressed.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

If you get the best available line on any side at any point in the line's life, you're most likely going to beat the closer - so we can agree that you will win if you always get the best odds. Much easier said than done of course. To me, it's more important to consistently make good bets than to necessarily cash every bet I make. Variance is real and you won't win all the time (doing so would cost you money, anyway). But if you're making bets with the odds in your favor, you're going to come out ahead in the end. Do you think a casino manager has a meltdown if some high roller wins 200k at the roulette table? Of course not. Variance just went against him for a given series of bets, but in the long run there's no way he'll lose booking roulette bets because every bet the house takes on a roulette wheel (excluding promos/bonuses) is +EV for the casino.
Tim, true story 4yrs ago I was charting all of BW College basketball plays and someone put me in action with his plays I thought he would bet on, we NEVER LOSS one week doing it, something like 11 weeks in a row we win, and thats the honest the Gods truth...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

tell em irisharithmetic. sports betting is such a true coin flip, all you can is do is try and maximize value by buying the best number you can on the side you believe to have an edge with, whether spread or moneyline. as soon as I started to learn more of the math side, as everything is essentially formed around math, I just try and put myself in the best position to win by getting the best number and let everything else fall into place.

it's just like playing poker, after awhile you can just deal with bad beats and move on and not be phased, losing as a 19-1 favorite doesn't get a reaction out of me. Getting +3 on a game that closes pk, and loses by 20, doesn't bother me.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Info is strong if you know where its coming from, thats the whole key... I lost so much money in my life picking on my own, I thought I could win without help, it kept me broke for a many years... I know you know the guy that use to own ASAP SPORTSBOOK, HE'S A LIFETIME winner betting, he knows how to win money betting, but he couldn't win booking, funny but true........
I know the guy and that is true and strange to say the least.

And I know you get to see who is betting what every day (like I do when I am working) and it can work for you.

Money management is a huge key also. The info can't help you there brother.

:cheers
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

We do agree on most of this.

I'm just saying most people are not going to be able to do that.

And in this game

Oregon + the 3 points looks like a great bet and

Auburn for the Auburn bettors now that they don't have to lay -3 and could lay less then -2 makes that a great bet.

Both sides bets have value, but

Only because the bookmakers of today are IDIOTS for moving their lines around so much. They give away so much value they should:+textinb3 all be embarressed.


agree Ore +3 = good, Aub -2 = good. Depends on what you line the game as.


Does anyone think this game closes at a pk?
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

We do agree on most of this.

I'm just saying most people are not going to be able to do that.

And in this game

Oregon + the 3 points looks like a great bet and

Auburn for the Auburn bettors now that they don't have to lay -3 and could lay less then -2 makes that a great bet.

Both sides bets have value, but

Only because the bookmakers of today are IDIOTS for moving their lines around so much. They give away so much value they should:+textinb3 all be embarressed.
I had that game tonight 1.5 all night while must were using 2 and 2.5 guess where the line closed at practically all 1.5. I didn't know this info till this afternoon, trust me info pays when you know which way the line is going...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Rainbow what are your thoughts right now on this LSU/A&M game? LSU prob gonna be a big square play but i really think right now they cash the ticket.
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

agree Ore +3 = good, Aub -2 = good. Depends on what you line the game as.


Does anyone think this game closes at a pk?
I want to know the people that bet on Auburn -2 just like I know the one's that knocked down the 3's. I move lines by people I respect........ if I don't think this player can beat me longterm I'm not moving the line off of him, I strictly book off of talent...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I had that game tonight 1.5 all night while must were using 2 and 2.5 guess where the line closed at practically all 1.5. I didn't know this info till this afternoon, trust me info pays when you know which way the line is going...
If you are working at the ***** then the reason might be that the rest of the books followed you there.

You do know how many books still look the 3 main places and move off of them and not their bettors.

You know that even a game like this can move just because 1 of the 3 main books moved.

And not a whole lot of money, but air
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

If you are working at the ***** then the reason might be that the rest of the books followed you there.

You do know how many books still look the 3 main places and move off of them and not their bettors.

You know that even a game like this can move just because 1 of the 3 main books moved.

And not a whole lot of money, but air
I agree with you partly, but Pinnacle was using -2.5 all day and at the time I was using 1.5. you know he's not going to follow one book on that screen...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I know the guy and that is true and strange to say the least.

And I know you get to see who is betting what every day (like I do when I am working) and it can work for you.

Money management is a huge key also. The info can't help you there brother.

:cheers
100% agree with you on that...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Looks like Rainbow got froggy yesterday and is calling me out....

Let's just say that since we are both about the same age, one is still working and one of us has been retired for five years...

When I was working, I had the same access to the info you had on all the wise guy moves...if you really know the right sides, how come you are still working?
Really don't want to get in a pissing contest with you because I don't want to see a meltdown...

I respect your opinons Rainbow and am glad you turned your life around, but that doesn't give you the right to take shots at me and challenge me to some stupid contest/war....there are linesmakers out there that you and I could listen to and learn something....and we both know that is the truth...I can name five of them right now and you could not argue...

Good luck with your A&M bet....
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I want to know the people that bet on Auburn -2 just like I know the one's that knocked down the 3's. I move lines by people I respect........ if I don't think this player can beat me longterm I'm not moving the line off of him, I strictly book off of talent...
Are you serious? Then I guess you make a line change maybe 3 times a day...what happens if the talented players pass?
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Looks like Rainbow got froggy yesterday and is calling me out....

Let's just say that since we are both about the same age, one is still working and one of us has been retired for five years...

When I was working, I had the same access to the info you had on all the wise guy moves...if you really know the right sides, how come you are still working?
Really don't want to get in a pissing contest with you because I don't want to see a meltdown...

I respect your opinons Rainbow and am glad you turned your life around, but that doesn't give you the right to take shots at me and challenge me to some stupid contest/war....there are linesmakers out there that you and I could listen to and learn something....and we both know that is the truth...I can name five of them right now and you could not argue...

Good luck with your A&M bet....
You could name 5 of them, well guess what my boss said they don't make sharp people like me everyday and trust me I know all my customers, I don't think there's one bookie out there that coukld teach me anything that I don't already know about this business, I'm willing to go head to head with any one of the 5, trust me I know who to move off of and who not to, I do halftimes, in progress lines, in between innings in baseball, all the money lines on game and quarter lines, I don't need a Donbest screen tio do any of my work I do period, never did and never will, I would be the happiest person in the world if it didn't excist...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Looks like Rainbow got froggy yesterday and is calling me out....

Let's just say that since we are both about the same age, one is still working and one of us has been retired for five years...

When I was working, I had the same access to the info you had on all the wise guy moves...if you really know the right sides, how come you are still working?
Really don't want to get in a pissing contest with you because I don't want to see a meltdown...

I respect your opinons Rainbow and am glad you turned your life around, but that doesn't give you the right to take shots at me and challenge me to some stupid contest/war....there are linesmakers out there that you and I could listen to and learn something....and we both know that is the truth...I can name five of them right now and you could not argue...

Good luck with your A&M bet....
And the reason I'm still working is I made a promise to the person I'm working for I would work till I was 60, thats a little less than 3 more years...
 

JohnNetto

EOG Senior Member
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Obviously some Oregon money making its way on Friday before Monday's game. The Oregon +3's are now permanently gone barring some crazy revelation and I think Pick'em as the closer is not out of the question...
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

You could name 5 of them, well guess what my boss said they don't make sharp people like me everyday and trust me I know all my customers, I don't think there's one bookie out there that coukld teach me anything that I don't already know about this business, I'm willing to go head to head with any one of the 5, trust me I know who to move off of and who not to, I do halftimes, in progress lines, in between innings in baseball, all the money lines on game and quarter lines, I don't need a Donbest screen tio do any of my work I do period, never did and never will, I would be the happiest person in the world if it didn't excist...

If you know who to move off of "As if no other bookie does EXACTLY what you do".

Then you can't be a good bookie!

Sorry, but that's the truth.

Your Idea of a bookie is a lot different then my Idea of a bookie.

Me/My knid of Bookie already knows what the lines/odds should be.

And there are not many of us left. :+textinb3
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

How do you know what the odds should be, HT? Magic?

I make them better then the linesmakers.

And always have, but I guess you think nobody can do that.

There are a lot of BETTORS who know what the lines/odds should be and it's always been that way.

You might not know this, but for as long as I have been in this business when the opening lines/odds come out there are many, many bettors who are there to get the BAD OPENERS.

And for as long as I have been in this business the Sports Books who open these lines DON'T have a clue the lines they use are bad.

It has always been that way and the SOLE reason most of these Books USE their SHARP Bettors to MAKE THEM MONEY.

That's how they book because it's the safest way to book if you yourself (the bookie) don't know what the lines/odds should be.

When I first entered this business I thought

The Bookmakers would be the smarter people.

BOY WAS I WRONG
 
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

And everyone of those opening line/odds bettors

All are looking to bet the same side. They ARE NOT GUESSING

I am not the only person who can make good lines.
 
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