Dems in Absolute Panic As Early Data Shatters Narrative in Key States
Up until this weekend, the Democratic victory narrative has been this: Dems will outperform in early and mail in voting. Republicans, leerier to mail-in voting, will opt for in person voting and will outperform on election day. However, in the end, the in person voting will not be enough to overcome the massive early voting numbers by the Democrats.
This weekend that narrative shattered in some key states. It’s absolute panic.
Politico leads today’s news with reports of numerous anxiety-ridden memos in Democratic offices.
“Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos and bracing for a long two weeks.”
Michigan – Republicans have the early lead among early & mail-in voting:
Texas – Republicans shatter early voting expectations and it appears a blue Texas is gone:
Democratic Operative on Twitter: “I don’t understand how Dems are doing worse than 2016 in Texas in terms of early voting. Something is up.”
Twitter Response: “The polls are way off.”
As Democratic strategies pour over early numbers, a clear and unexpected trend is emerging: The lockdowns is suppressing the college vote. Normally, on college campuses across America, many of the social events are simultaneously tied to campaign events for mostly Democratic candidates. Not this year with COVID-19 lockdowns. And college students have not turned out to vote.
In, Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 youth vote has gone from 23.1% 2016 and 12.5% in the midterms, to 11.7% in 2020 now.
In Dane county, WI, home to UW Madison and one of America’s most liberal college towns, the youth vote has declined from 8.0% in 2016 to 7.3% now. This came as a BIG surprise, as 27% of the total 2016 vote is already in, and the WI youth vote was expected to be energized and vote early.
In Durham county, NC, home to Duke & North Carolina State University, (home to 16k & 8k respective students) the youth vote has actually declined from 15.8% in 2016 to 14.5% in 2020. In NC state, the youth vote declined from 12.4% in 16 to 9.4% now.
Deeper Problems for Democrats Than An Absent College Demographic
But cross-tab analysis suggests the problems are deeper than an absent college demographic. Key counties in Michigan have shifted red. Most notably, Kent and Oakland counties. With a half a million votes cast in Oakland county in 2016, overwhelming for Hillary Clinton, it’s nothing less than complete shock to see early voting highly favorable to Republicans. With 25% of the Michigan vote in, these results are absolutely terrifying to Democrats.
To be very clear: These numbers will not overcome the expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3. It’s expected that Democrats will make a pivot to encourage in-person voting as soon as possible.