I liked Detroit, but I've been watching that game all day and it's obvious the sharper books really like Houston.
I would be careful laying points with OKC. It's similar to the 76ers...when they are dogs they look like they should be favored, when they are favorites they play like dogs. game should probably be pk. I pretty much gave up on Milwaukee. They were costing me too much. The public is on Orlando huge, but the Magic are a good road team. I think the Bucks cover but can't bet on it. I looked at Denver/Memphis for an hour and not sure if I drew any sort of conclusion, waste of time. F the Boston Miami game as well as New Orleans.
LA sure as hell isn't going to be +170 in the Finals, and as long as Kobe doesn't get hurt they sure as hell will be there. The Lakers schedule is far easier than Cleveland's for the rest of the regular season.
I can't see LA not being -170 minimum with home court vs Cleveland or Boston in the Finals. If the Celtics won every single game from here on out I guess maybe LA would go down to about -165. The Spurs just aren't going to be allowed to get there. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Portland/LA conf finals with the Blazers losing again.
I took 18 hours off and it feels like a week. The last few sessions I've been gambling a little. Not with bad numbers, but I'm not going to lose 2 three percent bets in a row. Have to make it worth something. One of the hardest things is to be patient and that was about as gambling as I get. More often than not it works out. You have to be able to reach out like that, the edges don't necessarily get better any more frequently, but after so many bets and so many years the assessment of the edge is priority. So when I go back and read this I will know that it's just a little late, I should have already just started picking best 3-5 and waiting on 2nd halves. Fade line moves, unders 2/1 to overs, same with dogs. Be very sure about dogs of more than 7. Road dogs. The public doesn't have a clue at this point. Reiterate playing late is a very good idea. So have to be patient and grind it back out. The 10 points with Portland was mind boggling, but just had to step away and do something else.
Charlotte +1 for 1.5%
MOTO bet. These master of the obvious bets make me nervous, but no reason for Toronto to be favored. Two teams going in opposite directions. Wrong teams is favored and a lot of that is because they just faced each other, used to be good to take the team that just lost in the 2nd. I don't see 3 points of home court for Toronto here. It's really hard to say Charlotte is not more than 2 points better than the Raptors, 3 for home court? I think it's more like Charlotte is maybe 3.5 points better neutral right now and give maybe 1.5-2 points to Toronto for home court. And that is being generous. Much more at stake for the Bobcats, I think they will make the playoffs, hard to see them not having the motivation for victory. I think I have 2 points minimum, it crosses the mendoza line, and a motivational edge. I may put more on this.
Sacramento +10 for 2.5%
ML +450 for .5%
about 5 points off. Sure Sacramento sucks, but NY has won maybe 3 or 4 all year at home by DD. The Kings lose big when they play teams well over .500, NY is a jump shooting team that has problems closing out games. They just have to keep shooting to win even when they are up by DD. This game has all kinds of sirens, whistles, and JACKPOTJACKPOT type shit going off in my head. I've seen a lot of games and this is one I'd categorize as being a +65% winner. I use multiple angles and they all point to Sacramento. The only drawback is I'm not sure of the motivation of the two teams or if the Kings are going to sit players etc. But that is why there is money management and this is certainly within the confines of my money management system. I see this game for the Kings being similar to road tests @Mem,@OKC,@MIL,@GS. I see this game for the Knicks being similar to...ANY of their home games. WILL add more to this but I need to breathe first. I also like the Spurs, not for the same amount, but I need to check a couple things out first. I'm fairly sure they rested Tim FOR this game. I'm not sure of the status of Garnett.
San Antonio -4 +100 for .9%
same at -3.5, and I think it may be possible to see -3.
A lot of rumors flying around in this one, is Manu back?, Garnett is in as well as Ray Allen for now. I'm almost 100% Duncan will play. I don't like taking teams as favorites with worse records, but I don't see Garnett and Allen being as effective as they usually are. Boston has been struggling lately and I don't think SA is the easiest place to get back on track. Celtics shot 55% last game.
Coach Doc Rivers says he wants to “ease” Garnett back into the lineup. He’ll be very wise to resist the temptation to hand the Big Ticket heavy minutes in the face of the added frontline injuries to Leon Powe, Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine.
Austin has a lot to do right now and I may not be around too much for the next month.
just an fyi. people think that when people don't post for a while something bad happened. I know the NBA and I know that the last few weeks before the NBA playoffs are filled with f'ing bshit like that Memphis f'ing meltdown. I know how to bet 2nd halves and should hit 60% on them from now until the playoffs. I don't pay attention to percentages but I think I've been hitting close to that for a couple months on them so nothing is going to change.
San Antonio is dead. I would put at least 5% on the Lakers to win it all b/c you WILL be seeing them in the Finals and they WILL be favorites with home court which means you WILL be seeing more than -150 for them in the Finals in June. No it's not a guarantee but it IS an overlay of more than 20% and it's difficult to find that kind of ROI on an event that you are pretty much guaranteed 100% effort. I got a lot of IM's asking if I was sure about Sacramento today. It's like WTF who can ever be sure about Sacramento? I was 67% sure and that's very sure in this racket. I've been throwing around fairly high percentages as far as amounts but I have to switch gears this time of year before the playoffs b/c then it's just another test...I'm going to risk a possible 60% of what I've made on the entire NBA year in the playoffs if it comes to that. In other words if I have a bad losing streak in the playoffs I'm not going to hesitate to keep firing. Let's say I'm up 25% for the NBA year. I lose two 3% bets in a row in the early stages of the playoffs...I'm going to find 3 more 60% edges and bet them for at LEAST 3% a piece. And if they all lose...so f'ing what. I've never lost in the NBA playoffs but that doesn't mean shit. You have to plan for worst case scenario. Without a plan people are gambling. I'm not gambling. Sometimes I get bored and get drunk and gamble to the extent that I'm putting 2-3x as much as I would sober on a good number, but I'm drunk as shit right now and so it's not like I lose control. Fact is, I'm running out of things to do in the sports market. I'm close to getting out. I've saved 90% of what I've made over the last decade and put a lot of it into real estate in Austin, the economy isn't that bad here. Going into NCAA football 2008 I had one goal and that was best season ever and that was done before week 11. Going into this year's NBA my goal was to make money on the Clippers and that's done. No way I can beat MLB 2003. Not sure what I just typed but Denver just allowed the Wizards 100 points. fuck this shit.
one of my favorite phrases..."it is what it is..."
This is a market, a fun market, a somewhat maverick market. That is what it is to me, it's just another market. The mission statement isn't "I'm better than the oddsmaker, I'm better than the public"...it's 'this is a market that I am capable of making money in.' I think that is HELLA important to be able to assess. Optimization requires subsets IMO. How is one doing on favorites, on dogs, on overs, on unders, on 2nd half sides, on 2nd half totals, on 55%sht, on B2B3in4's, on public fades, on pin leans, then it goes to specific teams...then the overlapping really starts. But I think that is very important and those are the main subsets that I use.
This may be one of the only years that I can say that in each subset I'm showing +. It's close on overs b/c of the beginning of the year and I didn't take a whole lot of 2nd half sides (95% totals). I'm not taking much just on pinnacle leans anymore (early in the year I'm adding about double on them what I would at most give to them now, .35% vs .75% maxes). All that is just to say to what degree do I trust my number, right now? A lot. I don't think I've ever been as confident. A few hours ago I was ready for time off. Now I see some free money. The psychology of this is so very important I think it's imperative to be creative in order to succeed. Creative? I'm constantly tricking myself into new missions. But the ability to change and quickly is the most important.
I think this is the only market in which people think it's not possible to succeed. Banks certainly don't proffer an opinion that real estate ventures will fail. The stock market keeps destroying people and the general consensus is that it will still make money long term. I think it's ironic and somewhat humorous that a lot of people keep telling me to be careful and how so many people have lost so much in the sports market. No doubt, otherwise I couldn't make money. I can leave at any time, it's not like if things go completely sour that I'm going to lose anything. I started over 10 years ago with less than 10K. I've been re-investing the proceeds into residential real estate pretty much the whole time. It doesn't take a very smart person to see how lucrative that is in Austin. With the University, the government, and a decent tech industry, the economy here is going to always be fairly stable.
Min +2 for 1.3%
Okc has won 5 games on the road. Simply no reason for them to be favored. Min has beaten them the last 2, has a better record, and this line should be Min -2. Discounted b/c Min sucks and I'm not sure of their motivation.